Fuel Type: Petrol

Used Car Market Update – April 2021

Used car market gathers pace

As expected, the UK used car auction market continued to gather pace following the easing of some restrictions in March. Sale volume and first-time conversion rate both continued the improvements seen for March, albeit not to the same degree, whilst the percentage achieved of the original cost new also increased month-on-month. In summary, the three key metrics all continued to move in the right direction, with more cars sold first-time and for more money.

Used Car Market Conversion Rate Graph April 2021
Used car market percentage original cost new graph April 2021

Demand continued to grow during the month, with premium SUVs and convertibles particularly sought after. Cars that required work were less desirable, so whilst there was a clear demand for vehicle stock, whether to fill up sites depleted during the lockdown or to prepare for increasing demand, it is clear that buyers were generally looking for cars ready for customer sale with the minimum delay or additional expenditure.

Used Car Retail Market

The metrics for the used car Retail market continue the positive theme from March. The number of observed sales increasing 13.6% – not as strong as the surge seen for March, but impressive nonetheless. The average sale price decreased a little. This is likely due to the increase in the sales of lower-priced cars. Buyers of these cars appeared to be less keen during the lockdown, which was reflected in the auction results, but the opening up of retail sites to more “normal” sales procedures saw a boom in demand at the auctions as retail demand increased.

Used car market retail observations graph April 2021
Used car market average retail sale price graph April 2021

Glass’s Live Retail prices measure the length of time a car spends on the forecourt, with a shorter duration generally pointing to a stronger retail market. The Average Days to Sell in April did improve compared with March, down from 48.7 days to 47.3 days, although the improvement may not be as great as some may have been expecting. However, with all of the recent restrictions, many cars may inevitably have been in stock for longer than would be desirable in a “normal” market.

The opening up of retail sites and the rise in demand is giving many retailers a confidence boost, so the practice of trading out overage stock added to the jump in retail sales will result in a bigger stock day improvement in May.

Used car market average days to sell graph April 2021

Outlook

Early indications for May are that the used car auction market is continuing to improve. Strong demand is continuing to drive values up, and whilst this is undoubtedly good news, dealers should be cautious. With many retailers topping up their sites to pre-lockdown stock levels whilst also keeping up with the increased demand, values may over recover. Supply into the auction market is also improving, so whilst May is shaping up to be a strong month for both auction and retail, the growth in auction values may slow towards the end of the month.

New Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Market Update – April 2021

A strong market for both new and used LCVs

An artificially inflated 798.8% increase in light commercial vehicle registrations in April 2021 were recorded, against a backdrop of twelve months ago when nearly all registrations stopped due to coronavirus lockdowns.

This growth was largely driven by demand in the 2.5-3.5-tonne sector, where 20,037 vans were registered. In the first four months of 2021, registrations in this sector have nearly doubled those in the same period in 2020 and reflect a market that saw its largest ever April total since records began. A year-to-date total of 127,796 registrations is a rise of 79.3% overall versus 2020 and reflects a market that is 23.2% up on the five-year average.

SMMT data revealed that the 30,440 April registration total is 27,053 units more than in April 2020, the first full lockdown month of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Breaking down the results highlighted huge increases for all sectors. Demand for vans under 2.0 tonnes rose by 884.6% whilst registrations in the between 2.0-2.5 tonne and 2.5-3.5 tonne sector improved by 1,042.7% and 674.2% respectively. The Pickup sector also recorded a 1,425.5% increase.

The Ford Transit Custom van combined with the Ford Tourneo Custom people carrier was crowned best-selling vehicle in the UK in April, outselling every other car and van on the market. The second best selling van was its big brother, the Ford Transit. The Mercedes-Benz Sprinter was third and the Volkswagen Transporter was fourth. PSA also returned a strong month, with five of their product ranges in the top ten places. Year-to-date Ford dominates, with four of its product ranges in the top ten. PSA also feature strongly, with the Vauxhall Vivaro, Vauxhall Combo, Peugeot Partner and Citroen Berlingo positioned in the top ten.

Top five LCV registrations

Top five LCV registrations table April 2021

The effects of the pandemic continue to distress the automotive industry. Further lockdowns and COVID restrictions in many European countries, continue to affect many vehicle producing nations and the wider supply chain. Ongoing semi-conductor, steel, rubber and even wood shortages are now compounding the situation. With this fragile supply chain still at risk of disruption, there is still some way to go before the industry returns to normal. The last year has proved though that the commercial vehicle sector is nothing but resilient. Demand is strong, registrations are up and the outlook is much brighter.

April used Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) overview

April has seen the used market in resilient form with prices remaining strong with high first-time conversion rates for anything that is retail ready.

The limited numbers of sub 2-year old stock sees buyers continuing to haggle over the best examples, with additional interest from franchised dealer groups ensuring prices have remained strong during April. Only 4% of all stock sold was in this age bracket during the month.

Twenty eight percent of stock sold in April was in the 2 to 4-year-old age bracket, whilst vehicles over six-years old contributed to 39% of all sales. Although medium-sized vans again proved the most popular during April with 38.9% of all sales, prices were down 0.94% on March. Small vans followed with 28.8%, up 13.2% on March and large vans were third with 23.4% up 2.4% on March.

With the SMMT reporting another strong new registration month in April, it is hopeful that vehicle de-fleets will start to find their way into the wholesale market soon. Although this will improve the supply of stock into the used market, there remains delays surrounding the supply of new vehicles to the UK. As a result, prices look set to remain high for the remainder of the year.

April in detail

Glass’s auction data shows the overall number of vehicle sales in April decreased by 6.85% versus March 2021, whilst first-time conversion rates remained steady at 86.9%.

Average sales prices paid in April decreased by 2.84% versus March, but remain 62.78% higher than the same point last year – the first full month of the pandemic. The average age of sold stock increased from 70.8 months in March to 72.2 months in April and was 10.8 months younger than the same point last year.

Average mileages remained static during April, moving from 86,603 miles in March to 86,442 in April (-0.19%). This mileage was 14,823 miles higher than in April 2020.

Glass’s continues to monitor the LCV market closely and has an open dialogue with auction houses, manufacturers, leasing and rental companies, independent traders and dealers as well as the main industry bodies. This information, combined with the wealth of knowledge in our CV team ensures Glass’s valuations remain relevant in the market place.

Originally written for Commercial Fleet.

BEV vs ICE: a race to price parity

Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) will achieve price parity with their fossil-fuel counterparts across Europe from 2027 at the latest. This is according to the results of a new BloombergNEF study commissioned by the clean-transport campaign group Transport and Environment (T&E).

Electrically-chargeable vehicle (EV) adoption is increasing with help from incentive programmes and expanding model offerings. In the first quarter of this year, BEVs accounted for 5.7% of EU new-car registrations, an increase of 59.1% compared to the first three months of 2020. Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) took 8.2% of the market, equating to an increase of 175%. Meanwhile, diesel and petrol-powered cars continued to see falling volumes.

However, the automotive industry is still in the early stages of electrification. Presently, those investing in EVs have both the confidence and capital to invest in electric drivetrains. As components, particularly batteries, become cheaper and more technologically advanced, EV price tags should shrink.

Price parity

The segment will dictate a BEV’s point of price parity with petrol in the coming years, with larger vehicles becoming more affordable more quickly. According to the BloombergNEF study, light vans will lead the charge, becoming cheaper than their ICE counterparts in 2025. BEVs in the C and D segments will follow in 2026, while small cars (B segment) bring up the rear in 2027.

Source: T&E

‘EVs will be a reality for all new buyers within six years,’ said Julia Poliscanova, senior director for vehicles and e-mobility at T&E. ‘They will be cheaper than combustion engines for everyone, from the man with a van in Berlin to the family living in the Romanian countryside. Electric vehicles are not only better for the climate and Europe’s industrial leadership, but for the economy too.’

Building better batteries

So, what will be the driving force behind shrinking costs? The BloombergNEF study points to falling battery costs, new vehicle architectures and dedicated production lines as leading factors in reducing price, even before subsidies come into the equation. ‘An optimal vehicle design, produced in high volumes, can be more than a third cheaper by 2025 compared to now,’ the study states.

Source: T&E

Batteries in particular have had an important role to play as they have consistently been the most expensive EV component over the past decade. In the US, they currently account for roughly 30% of an EV’s cost. In Europe, prices are more widely spread, raising the continent’s average battery price above the global average – resulting partly from some lower-volume orders. But as battery prices fall and more optimised platforms are developed, EV prices should follow.

‘New chemistries, better manufacturing methods, innovative cell and pack-design concepts and other factors contribute to average prices per kilowatt-hour declining by 58% from 2020 to 2030,’ BloombergNEF points out. Past this point, new technologies like the solid-state battery will continue to drive down price. These smaller, more powerful units are seeing an uptick in interest from OEMs. Most recently, BMW and Ford led an investment round in Solid Power, a producer of solid-state batteries.

Plugged-in projections

Europe could see 4.3 million plug-in vehicles sold in 2025, representing roughly 28% of the market. BEVs would capture over half of those sales, with the rest made up by PHEVs as carmakers use them to meet emissions targets. In an economics-driven scenario, BloombergNEF believes BEVs could claim up to half of Europe’s market share of sales by 2030 and 85% by 2035.

T&E points out that battery-electric cars and e-vans could reach 100% of new sales by 2035 – including southern and eastern Europe, where initial take-up rates have been comparatively slow. However, this would be dependent upon lawmakers ramping up CO2 targets and producing policies to stimulate market developments including the introduction of more infrastructure. The environmental group states that without these additional policies, battery-electric cars will claim 85% of the EU market and e-vans 83%. This would mean missing Europe’s goal to decarbonise by 2050.

‘With the right policies, battery-electric cars and vans can reach 100% of sales by 2035 in western, southern and even eastern Europe,’ said Poliscanova. ‘The EU can set an end date in 2035 in the certainty that the market is ready. New polluting vehicles should not be sold for any longer than necessary.’

In April, T&E published the results of a poll of 15 European cities showing that nearly two thirds of urban residents support a ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030. Additionally, Volvo Cars, Uber and LeasePlan were recently among a group of companies calling for an end date to new ICE car purchases in Europe no later than 2035. While requests for electrification mount alongside evidence of EV credentials, shrinking price tags will undoubtedly increase adoption rates.   

The Van’s Headlights: The Future of the Pick-up Sector

Will the reduced number of manufacturers have a long term impact on this sector?


The pick-up

Created 100 years ago as a purely utilitarian vehicle, the pick-up has transformed into a multi-purpose vehicle often more comfortable on-road than off. With the internal combustion engine ban coming into effect in just eight and half years, what does the future hold for this sector? The pick-up of the future is very much on the horizon and enthusiasts should have much to look forward to, albeit with some uncertainty. Glass’s Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor, Andy Picton, takes a closer look at the current situation and what could be coming our way.

The demise of the pick-up

Mercedes-Benz and Fiat have already ceased sales of the X-Class and Fullback pick-ups. Volkswagen Group ceased production last year of Amarok with a replacement not due until 2022. More recently, Mitsubishi announced that it would cease new sales in the UK during 2021, with the last new L200 likely to be registered during quarter three this year. Equally disappointing is that Nissan has revealed that production of the Navara will stop by the end of this year, with sales ending early in 2022.

On the face of it, a worrying time ahead for the sector. Only the Ford Ranger, Toyota Hilux and Isuzu D-Max remain as major volume sellers, especially with SsangYong in receivership whilst its owner Mahindra and Mahindra looks for a new owner. Over the last decade, the sector enjoyed huge growth, but pick-up sales were down nearly 33% in 2020, with just 35,691 registrations compared to 53,055 in 2019. The Ford Ranger continues to be the best selling pick-up in the UK, registering over 13,000 units or nearly 25% of the overall sector total.

Future pick-ups

On the horizon, there are chinks of light creating hope for the sector, with new product launches from established players on the way. Below the article outlines new launches and, what is in the pipeline together with a look at new ‘disruptors’ preparing to enter the market. There is a chance that some of the disruptors will enter the UK and European markets giving the established brands an overdue shake-up.

Isuzu

Delayed due to the pandemic, Isuzu entered 2021 with the new D-Max pick-up. The vehicle is powered by the same 1.9TD engine but with a new assertive look. The new D-Max is packed with safety features, has a lighter and stiffened chassis and a premium interior.

Isuzu D-Max front view


Toyota

The Hilux facelift is packed with a more powerful 2.8-litre engine under the bonnet. This bucks the engine downsizing trend followed by other manufacturers and is proving popular with customers. The new 201bhp is only available on Invincible and Invincible X trim levels and compliments the existing 2.4D-4D 150bhp model range.

Hilux Invincible X front side view


Maxus

SAIC (Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation) have plans to launch a pick-up in the UK during 2021 or early 2022. Likely to be called the T90, with power from either a 2.0-litre turbo 163bhp, 375Nm or a 215bhp 480Nm twin-turbo diesel engine. Available with manual and automatic transmissions, two or four-wheel drive and with a 5-year, 125,000-mile warranty. Hybrid and full battery-electric versions are expected.

Maxus Concept Pick-up front and side view


Great Wall

Although not currently operating in the UK, Great Wall has previously sold the Steed double cab pick-up here. Three new pick-ups were launched in China in 2020 as part of their P-Series range, consisting of passenger, off-road and electric commercial pick-up, with over 100 different configurations available. The electric pick-up has a range of up to 500km (310 miles) and a stated charging time of two hours. The P-Series will be Great Wall Motors first global product and although no timeframe is yet available for a possible UK launch, Isuzu who remain the appointed distributor for Great Wall are closely following developments.

Great Wall P-Series Electric Pick-up front and side view


INEOS

This British firm is developing a no-nonsense 4×4 to plug the gap left by the old Land Rover Defender. Built from the ground up on an all-new platform, the Grenadier will feature a ladder frame and differential locks. The Grenadier is being engineered in Germany and built in France. Production starts later this year, with customer deliveries starting early in 2022. The Grenadier will be powered by torquey 3.0-litre BMW petrol and diesel engines with automatic transmission and be available as a station wagon and a double cab pick-up from launch. Expectations are for a hybrid and an electric version at a later date. Prices to be confirmed.

INEOS Grenadier 4x4 front and side view


Ford and Volkswagen

The next-generation Ranger and Amarok models will be built by Ford under a new alliance with Volkswagen. Using a new shared platform the new pick-ups are due for launch during the second half of 2022. Interestingly, Volkswagen state that there are no plans at this stage to launch a full battery-electric version of the Amarok which may limit the vehicle lifecycle in Europe. Ford may look to use technology implemented in the new F150 EV pick-up in the US for the new Ranger.

Ford and VW logo's


Nikola

The Badger is a hydrogen fuel cell/battery electric double cab pick-up that is stated to have an overall 600-mile range, with a 300-mile range on battery alone. This 906 horsepower, 980Nm machine can tow up to 3.6 tonnes and features a separate 15-kilowatt power outlet for tools, lights and compressors, enough to assist a construction site for 10-12 hours without a generator. Expected to go sale during 2021 in the US, European launches are as yet unconfirmed.

Nikola Badger front and side view


Rivian

Founded in 2009 and part-funded by Amazon and Ford Motor Company, the battery-electric R1T double cab pick-up will be on sale in the US later this year. The R1T has a range of up to 400 miles on a single charge and will be available with three different battery sizes. The ability to fast-charge at 160kW will potentially add 200 miles to the range in just 30 minutes. On the downside, its payload is currently only 800kg, which means they have some work to do if they are to qualify for commercial vehicle taxation rules in the UK. Prices in the US start at just below £44,000 for the entry model, rising to nearly £73,000 for the longe range version. European sales start in 2022. Rivian also plans to build 100,000 battery-electric vans for use by Amazon in North America with deliveries starting in 2022.

Rivian R1T Electric D.Cab Pickup front and side


Bollinger

Looking like a stretched Land Rover Series 1, the B2 battery-electric double cab pick-up features front and rear motors helping to generate 614hp and 668Nm of torque. Unique full-length load capabilities along with a retro-style cabin layout guarantee a standout vehicle, as will its starting price of over £100,000. Orders are being taken for US sales, but at 17.3” long and 7.41” wide, it icle along with a retro ‘old skuiis unlikely that this beast will reach UK shores.

Bollinger B1 and B2 Electric Pickups side view


Tesla

Standing at an enormous 19.4” long, 6.3” high and 6.8” wide, the Cybertruck is unlikely to see the light of day in the UK either, because of its size and is unlikely to meet stringent European safety and type-approval legislation. Tesla has hinted that a smaller 300-mile range version for the European market would be considered for a later date.


Sector future

With the reduction in current competitors, Ford, Toyota and Isuzu will benefit in the short term. The demise of Mitsubishi and Nissan has meant there is a general shortage of available pick-up stock. With 10 month lead times, deliveries dates are already stretching into 2022. Extended lead times look likely to remain for some time as production struggles to get back to full capacity, leading to rental companies and fleets placing orders now to guarantee deliveries.

The longer-term future of the pick-up sector looks uncertain. There is still no conventional electric pick-up truck on general sale in the UK, although the whole life cost benefits make ownership an attractive proposition. Environmental benefits and the improved performance of electric propulsion offroad should also make the choice compelling.

The market in Europe and the UK is much smaller overall than in the US, where over three million pick-ups were sold in America in 2019. Unsurprisingly, most of the disruptors are American as the demand there is much greater.

There are currently no electric pick-ups due for launch from the mainstream manufacturers who appear to be prioritising the development of new car platforms to help them deliver their corporate CO2 targets.

With so much potential in the pick-up and LCV sectors for battery-electric power, there is hope that this technology can cascade to electric pick-ups soon, otherwise, this sector is in real danger of disappearing altogether.

Are EVs as green as they seem?

The last year has been dominated by a single health emergency that brought the world to its knees. But for decades, scientists and campaigners have been warning of another impending crisis. As governments put environmental regulations in place, carmakers are transitioning into clean mobility companies. Spearheading this change, electrically-chargeable vehicles (EVs) appear poised to take the helm from internal combustion engines (ICEs). But for this handover to work, these electric models must prove to be environmentally advantageous. Autovista Group Daily Brief Journalist Tom Geggus asks, are EVs as green as they seem?

According to the European Commission, passenger cars are responsible for around 12% of total EU CO2 emissions, putting the automotive industry in the green spotlight. A poll of 15 European cities recently revealed nearly two-thirds of urban residents back a ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030. OEMs and mobility providers are also supporting a faster transition to zero-emission transport. Volvo Cars, Uber and LeasePlan are among a group of companies calling for an end date to new combustion car purchases in Europe no later than 2035. This would leave a large ICE-sized hole for EVs to plug. But considering its entire lifetime, is an electrified vehicle that much cleaner than a petrol or diesel-powered one?

Significantly smaller footprint

Published in March last year, research from the universities of Cambridge, Exeter and Nijmegen showed that in 95% of the world, an electric car has a significantly smaller carbon footprint than one powered by fossil fuels. Dr Florian Knobloch, University of Cambridge fellow, German Federal Ministry policy advisor, and the paper’s lead author, spoke with Autovista Group’s Daily Brief about the findings.

The academic team carried out extensive life-cycle assessments of emissions produced through vehicle use, as well as production and waste processing. ‘When you look at the production stage, it takes significantly more energy and material input due to the battery,’ Dr Knobloch said. But the EV then makes up for this larger burden across its entire lifetime thanks to far lower running emissions.

‘It is a myth that electric cars do increase emissions, even on a lifetime basis,’ he said. ‘In most parts of the world already, today EVs will decrease emissions, even if you factor in everything from production to recycling.’

‘A snowball effect’

When dividing the world into 59 regions, the research revealed that in 53, electric cars are already less emissions-intensive than one powered by petrol or diesel. These regions include Europe, the US and China. In fact, lifetime emissions from EVs were found to be 70% lower than petrol cars in countries like France and Sweden, where large amounts of electricity are generated through renewable and nuclear sources. However, the same cannot be said for counties like Poland, where dependence on coal-fuelled power stations lingers.

But as grids worldwide are rewired with decarbonisation in mind, even these regions will see more reason to go electric. So, as EVs become increasingly efficient, they will outstrip ICEs which have already reached near-peak efficiency. Dr Knobloch points out that even with the inclusion of greener technology like biofuels, there is little chance for the carbon footprint of ICE vehilces to greatly improve.

This transition to electromobility does take time. Confidence in EVs still needs to build up: from the early adopters to the mainstream. ‘Every EV you buy now increases the chance of more EVs being bought in the future,’ Dr Knobloch explained. As consumers are exposed to an increasing number of EVs, a snowball effect will take place with confidence growing alongside adoption, encouraging more people to take the electric leap. The study projects that globally, half of cars on average could be electric by 2050. This would lower global CO2 emissions by up to 1.5 gigatons annually.

A comparative tool

In Europe, clean-transport campaign group Transport and Environment (T&E), found that electric cars emit on average almost three times less CO2 than their ICE equivalent. Again, this figure considers wider impact, including the sourcing of battery materials, electricity production, and even power-plant construction. To illustrate the difference between the lifetime emissions of EVs and ICEs, T&E created a tool to compare drive types, considering the year of purchase, vehicle type and location, as well as electricity used for battery production.

Lucien Mathieu, manager overseeing road vehicles and e-mobility analysis at T&E, spoke with Autovista Group’s Daily Brief. As the tool’s creator, he explained it aims to combat other bias analysis of electric-car emissions, that might rely on outdated data, particularly given the rapid advance of EV technology. Using the most up-to-date information, T&E’s tool reveals CO2 emissions per kilometre, as well as in tonnes over lifetime.

For example, comparing two medium-sized cars bought in 2020, T&E’s tool reveals the electric car, on average, is responsible for 90 grammes of CO2 per kilometre versus petrol with 253 grammes. Considering tonnes of CO2 over distance driven, the EV’s ‘carbon debt’ from production is paid off quite quickly thanks to its low-usage emissions. This compares starkly to an ICE car, which is far less efficient when converting its fuel into movement.

This canyon between EV and ICE only looks set to grow as battery technology continues to advance, while fossil-fuel cars have already achieved close to their peak efficiency. A T&E study recently calculated that an EV battery uses 30 kilograms of raw materials with recycling, compared to the 17,000 litres of petrol burned by the average car.

‘The valuable minerals mined to make electric-car batteries will be used and reused unlike those of oil,’ said Greg Archer, UK director of T&E. ‘Over its lifetime, an average-engined car would burn through a stack of oil barrels, 25 storeys high, creating about 40 tonnes of CO2 and worsening global warming. In comparison, only 30 kilograms of metals would be lost each time an electric-car battery is recycled – roughly the size of a football.’

This gap will increase as advancements drive down how much lithium is needed to make a battery by half over the next decade. Cobalt will drop by over three-quarters and nickel by around a fifth. So, as EVs develop, T&E plans to keep their tool updated with the latest available evidence, as well as expanding its scope to include plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). But of course, EVs also benefit from technologies developing outside of their own powertrains.

Powering vehicles

At the end of last year, more than 3,500 European power companies, represented through the federation for the European electricity industry, Eurelectric, came out in support of a minimum 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. As more electricity generators and distributors throw their weight behind cleaner-energy solutions, including the use of more renewables, EVs can be expected to become greener.

Speaking with Autovista Group’s Daily Brief, Petar Georgiev, climate and E-mobility lead at Eurelectric, pointed to a larger picture when considering the energy behind EVs. ‘You do have to keep in mind what the actual carbon footprint is in different countries, at different times, and also how it is changing, because for us in the power sector, we clearly see that the grid is becoming cleaner and cleaner,’ he said. ‘But if we have to wait to have a fully renewable grid, and then only start to integrate renewables, that would probably be a very big mistake.’

Because an EV’s CO2 levels can be lowered long before its first charge, it makes sense to take a holistic approach to EV emissions and electricity usage. For example, manufacturers can opt for more efficient production methods, even incorporating renewables into the process. Furthermore, which cars plug into electromobility will be hugely important.

Eurelectric recently identified the electrification of Europe’s vehicle fleets as a ‘catalyst for clean mobility throughout the 2020s.’ The continent’s fleet is made up of 63 million cars, vans, buses, and trucks, operated by private companies or public authorities. The federation explained, however,  that despite only making up 20% of the parc, these vehicles account for 40% of all kilometres travelled. They also account for 50% of CO2 emissions from transport. ‘Electrification of car fleets can be a real game-changer,’ Kristian Ruby, secretary-general of Eurelectric said. ‘It comes with tangible reductions of total costs of ownership and CO2 emissions. So, it is a good deal both for fleet owners and society at large.’

While the electrification of vehicles contains the potential to reduce CO2 emissions dramatically, it is enormously dependent upon usage. So, when asked, ‘are EVs as green as they seem?’ the answer is yes, but adoption rates will determine their success.

Auto Shanghai 2021: The key unveilings

Over the course of the last year, motor shows have been postponed, digitised, and cancelled. But as Auto Shanghai opened its doors, the automotive industry got a chance to showcase the latest models up close and in person. Daily Brief editor Phil Curry, senior data journalist Neil King, and journalist Tom Geggus, discuss some of the key unveilings.

To get notifications for all the latest videos, you can subscribe for free to the Autovista Group Daily Brief YouTube channel.

Image: TheNewsMarket

Used Car Market Update- March 2021

Positive outlook as lockdown eases

The big news for the UK was the relaxation of some lockdown rules, which began for dealers in early April. Crucially for the car retail industry, this meant that they could once again open their sites to the general public. As expected, this triggered a rise in auction activity as dealers looked to top-up their stock and prepare for the anticipated rise in demand.

We also saw the introduction of the March registration plate (21 plate), which is an event that typically brings a boost to the used car market with an influx of part-exchanges in the latter part of the month. Auction sale volume saw a marked increase compared with February and an even bigger hike compared to March 2020. The first-time conversion rate also rose in March, up 8.1% from February to 82.7%. This was 6.3% lower than March 2020, but still pretty good considering we were emerging from lockdown.

Sales volume index graph March 2021

General bidding activity appeared to improve through the month, although cars requiring work or lacking specification still struggled. Convertible values noticeably improved, buoyed by the approach of Spring and, quite possibly, a more positive outlook as more restrictions are expected to be relaxed over the coming weeks and months.

Used Car Retail Market

Looking at the used car retail market for March, it is clear why the auction market saw such a rise in activity. The number of observed sales rose by 24.2% from February to March, and were a very impressive 39% higher than for March 2020 – the difference between transitioning out of lockdown rather than heading towards one.

Used car market observations graph March 2021

Unsurprisingly, this ramping up of demand led to a reduction in the length of time cars were spending on the forecourt. GlassNet Radar reported that the average for March was 48.7 days, which was an improvement of just over 9 days from the previous month. It is 9.7 days longer than for March 2020 however, but considering the circumstances it is an encouraging improvement.

Used car market average days to sell graph March 2021

Outlook

With April having less pandemic-related restrictions than we have seen for some time, we can expect to see another busy month for both wholesale and retail used car sales. Of course, there may be a degree of pent-up demand that has been released, but with more regions of the UK returning to (relative) normality it is fair to expect that the used car industry will follow suit.

New car registrations will still be down for this year – higher than for 2020 but much lower than we were seeing pre-COVID – which means there will be a shortage of nearly-new stock for some time yet, and this will filter down through the age bands over the next couple of years which should help to ensure values of used cars remain relatively healthy.

Launch Report: BMW iX3 – conventional and balanced electrification

The iX3 is BMW’s first pure-electric X model and is the most conventional, being effectively a battery-electric vehicle (BEV) version of the best-selling X3.

The iX3 offers good performance, with strong linear acceleration – as usual for a battery-electric vehicle (BEV). The model also strikes a good balance between power and battery capacity, with competitive electricity consumption. In terms of agility and dynamics, the iX3 is slightly better than its direct rivals overall. As the battery is located under the car, this also explains the good roadholding.

Standard equipment is comprehensive, including three-zone climate control, heated and powered front seats (with memory function on the driver’s side), BMW Teleservices and wireless phone charging. Safety features include emergency-assist and rear cross-traffic alert. The 458km range of the iX3 is second only to the Jaguar I-Pace’s 470km range, and it has the fastest charging time when connected to an 11kw AC wallbox, of 7.5 hours.

In addition to BMW’s strong brand image, the iX3 is supported by the company’s longer expertise in electrification. This started with the i3, which has been on the market since 2013, and was followed by plug-in hybrid (PHEV) engines offered on different models in the range, including one for the brand’s X family.

As the first conventional BEV from BMW, the iX3 compares well against key competitors. It is offered at an attractive entry price point and the popularity of both the brand and the X3 range should ensure plenty of demand. Given that the iX3 is very close to the X3, BMW’s D-SUV range is now available in diesel, petrol, PHEV and BEV versions.

Click here or on the image below to read Autovista Group’s benchmarking of the BMW iX3 in France, Spain and the UK. The interactive launch report presents new prices, forecast RVs and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis.

New Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Market Update – March 2021

On the face of it, an impressive 85.5% increase in light commercial vehicle registrations in March 2021 reflects a market that saw its largest ever rise since the introduction of the two plate system in 1999. This figure masks a market that is 10.9% down on the 2015-2019 average and reflects the struggles this industry has had during the pandemic. Delayed pipeline orders and cash-rich businesses replacing vehicles at the end of the tax year boosted registrations in March, with all sectors enjoying large increases. A year-to-date total of 97,356 registrations is a rise of 43.4% overall versus 2020.

SMMT data indicates that the 56,122 March registration total is 25,875 units more than in March 2020, the first month of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Breaking down the results reveals that there were increases for all sectors. Demand for vans under 2.0 tonnes rose by 96.1% whilst registrations in the between 2.0-2.5 tonne and 2.5-3.5 tonne sector improved by 31.5% and 101.0% respectively. The Pickup sector also recorded an 85.7% increase.

The Ford Transit Custom resumed its number one position, outselling its big brother, the Ford Transit in second spot by more than two-to-one. Ford managed to place four of its product ranges in the top ten for the second month running.  In addition to the Ford Transit Custom and the Ford Transit, the Ford Ranger was fourth and the Ford Transit Connect was eighth. The registration top ten also saw Toyota’s Hilux pick-up feature in ninth position.

Top five LCV registrations

Top five LCV reg. March 2021

The effect the pandemic has had on the automotive industry over the last twelve months cannot be underestimated. Further lockdowns in many European countries continue to stymie vehicle production and the wider supply chain and does little to encourage business confidence.

In the UK, those who rely on incentives as essential to making battery electric vehicles affordable have derided the decision to reduce the Plug-in Van and Truck Grant. By the end of 2022, most van manufacturers will be able to offer a battery-electric vehicle (BEV). Instead of making BEVs an attractive and affordable proposition to UK businesses, the latest grant reductions place the country even further behind other markets who are at this time, increasing their subsidies. The eligibility change has already wiped out all-bar-one PHEV from the approved list, whilst the grant reduction is likely to affect the supply of BEVs to the UK. This at a time when commercial vehicle operators were beginning to show confidence and a desire to buy electric vehicles.

March used Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) overview

  • LCV used market resilient in March
  • Minibus values strengthen as children return to school
  • Slowly increasing stock availability
  • Versatile medium-sized panel vans

March has seen the used market in resilient form overall, driven mainly by the expanding home shopping market and the construction industry. Prices have remained strong and first-time conversion rates high for anything that is retail ready.

The minibus sector has struggled badly during the pandemic due to COVID restrictions, but as children return to schools around the country, there has unsurprisingly been an increase in demand. This demand has predominantly come from private sector operators fulfilling education authority contracts, rather than the schools themselves.

Buyers are actively avoiding damaged stock on the open market, whilst prices have continued to hold strong over the month. A steady trickle of new stock into the used market has seen buyers continue to haggle over the best examples, with sub-two-year-old stock attracting additional interest from franchised dealer groups running low on new stock. With less availability in this age bracket in March, prices increased across all sectors. There is more duplication available at auction currently as some utility companies start to de-fleet older stock.

In March less than 50% of all sales were in the zero to 4-year-old age bracket, whilst more vehicles in the over six-year-old age bracket were sold than in February and at higher prices. Medium-sized vans again proved the most versatile and popular overall during March with 37.7% of all sales. Small vans followed with 26.7% and large vans were third (26.0%).

With the SMMT reporting a strong March new plate registration month, there will be vehicle de-fleets that find their way into the wholesale market over the next weeks and months. This should slowly start to ease supply and demand issues, although prices look set to remain high for the best stock well into the second half of 2021.

With global vaccinations on the increase, the easing of lockdown measures has seen some of the smaller auctions return to physical sales. Others who have benefitted from operating solely as an online business during the pandemic have decided to continue this way, with a view to reassessing the situation later in the year.

March in detail

Glass’s auction data shows the overall number of vehicle sales in March increased by 12.8% versus February 2021, whilst first-time conversion rates increased by 3.0% to 87.2%.

Average sales prices paid in March increased slightly by 0.86% versus February and are now a third higher than the same point last year. The average age of sold stock increased from 69.0 months in February to 70.8 months in March and was 3.8 months younger than the same point last year.

Average mileages exceeded 80,000 miles for the first time in twelve months, increasing from 79,936 miles in February to 86,603 miles in March. This mileage was 6,073 miles higher than in March 2020.

Glass’s continues to monitor the LCV market closely and has an open dialogue with auction houses, manufacturers, leasing and rental companies, independent traders and dealers as well as the main industry bodies. This information, combined with the wealth of knowledge in our CV team ensures Glass’s valuations remain relevant in the market place.

Originally written for Commercial Fleet

German registrations start slow recovery in March

New-car registrations in Germany increased 35.9% in March, according to the latest figures from the Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (KBA).

The figure was inflated due to the country’s first COVID-19 lockdown closing dealerships from mid-March in the previous year. However, at that time, registrations performed well compared to other countries. While Spain, France and Italy posted losses of 69.3%, 72.2% and 85.4%, respectively, Germany only saw a decline of 37.7%.

At the end of the first quarter, new registrations totalled 656,452 units, down 6.4% compared to the first three months of last year. This is despite dealerships being closed. The country’s market also suffered due to a VAT increase, with taxes rising from 16% to 19% at the beginning of the year. Autovista Group estimates that around 40,000 registrations were pulled forward into December last year as a result.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/eWyiu/1/

Brand increases

All domestic brands showed positive growth in March 2021, the strongest being Smart with a 304.4% increase. Double-digit increases were recorded by Opel (75.1%), Mini (58%), Porsche (55%), Volkswagen Passenger Cars (VW) (39.1%), Mercedes (36.7%), Audi (17.6%) and BMW (17%). VW claimed the largest share of new registrations, taking 19.3% of the market.

Alfa Romeo showed the most significant increase among the imported brands, up by 114.6%. Fellow Stellantis stablemate Peugeot saw sales grow 78.4% while Tesla enjoyed a 63.6% boost. However, Honda (-33.3%), Mitsubishi (-30%) and Jaguar (-10%) were among those to see sales decline in the month.

Electric closes the gap

In terms of fuel type, the market for battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) achieved a significant increase of 191.4%, with a market share of 10.3%. With German car brands such as VW and BMW increasing their focus on electrification, there now seems to be an appetite for the technology amongst buyers. Plug-in hybrid (PHEV) models achieved a 12.2% market share, with sales increasing 277.5% in the month.

The swing to electric drives is more evident when internal combustion engines (ICE) sales are considered. New registrations of passenger cars with petrol engines increased by 7.1%. However, the market share was just 39.4%. The sale of diesel models continued to decline, with 5% fewer in March 2021 for a 22.1% market share. For the second successive month, diesel sales were outpaced by those of hybrids. When including standard and PHEV models, this powertrain type took 27.8% of the market.

The figures, therefore, show that 38.1% of registrations in Germany during the last month were non-ICE models. This is just 1.3% below the market share of petrol in March. It may not be long until sales of these vehicles outpace those of more traditional powertrains.

Germany extended its lockdown period to 18 April following a spike in infection cases. However, the Federation of Motor Trades and Repairs (ZDK) argued that vehicle dealers should be allowed to reopen fully. The group’s main argument is that while a hairdresser, with a floor space of 10m2, is allowed to have one customer, car showrooms with a floor space of 500m2 cannot open.

Changing Convertible Trends

As the days get longer and warmer and the garden furniture is dusted down, many people are drawn to the idea of owning a convertible to achieve that wind in the hair driving experience. However, Is the draw as strong as ever for these cars that are often impractical, expensive but rare and stylish?

During the 1990s, manufacturers realised the potential in this profitable segment after the success of the Mazda MX-5. They set about designing new models to increase their ranges, expanding not just to the traditional two-seater roadster but also to four-seat coupe versions of their popular saloon and hatchback models. Then came the advent of the folding “tin-top” roof to make the Convertible an all-year-round proposition.

However, did the extensive choice of Convertibles grow so large that the exclusivity factor diminished, and have consumers turned to other segments that have become more fashionable?

Up until the year 2000, the number of Convertibles registered new each year was around 2% of the whole market, according to data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). The peak year was 2004 where Cabriolet and Convertible registrations reached 116,500, equating to 4.6% of the new car market. The numbers have dropped to less than 2% for the last 5 years running and were only 1.2% in Coronavirus hit 2020.

What about the choice during the last twenty years? The chart below shows the number of ranges available by year.

Convertible ranges registered graph 1998-2020

The peak in the number of different ranges was in 2007. This has dwindled in recent years as models such as the Mercedes SLK/SLC, Volkswagen Golf and Beetle and Fiat’s 124 disappear. Many manufacturers no longer offer a convertible in their range.

Manufacturers are reacting to the fall in consumer demand for convertible versions of two-seater sports and small cars, as demand switches to other more popular body styles. There is no need to look beyond the SUV/Crossover segment to see where customer demand has shifted over time.

In 1998 there were 35 different SUV models available according to data gathered by Glass’s, and they fell into two distinct types. There was the large and expensive end of the market like the Land Rover Range Rover and Toyota Land Cruiser, or more utilitarian models from Isuzu, Mitsubishi and Daihatsu.

With the growing popularity in this segment, more manufacturers were taking note. Honda released the smaller CR-V and HR-V in the UK to rival the RAV4 from Toyota, and so the smaller SUV started to become more recognised on UK roads. They were often cheaper, but still retained the high driving position and four-wheel drive.

It soon became apparent that these cars were not often taken off-road, so new models launched featuring two-wheel drive, bringing costs down whilst also lowering CO2 emissions. The Nissan Qashqai typified this new wave of Crossovers, and by 2010 the number of SUV/Crossover models available had jumped to 60.

Mainstream manufacturers continue to increase offerings as the lines between body types blur more and more, and so we saw at least 100 different models available in 2020. Even sports car manufacturers recognize the opportunity, with Porsche launching the Cayenne in 2003, and in later years Maserati, Lamborghini and Aston Martin have joined the party along with Bentley and Rolls Royce.

As expected market share has grown too, otherwise manufacturers would not continue to grow their stable of SUV/Crossovers, as can be seen in the chart below where market share has grown from 4% to 35% of the UK market in 2020.

SUV/Crossover UK market share graph 1998-2020

With no likelihood of these trends ending soon, the return of the convertible to niche status seems inevitable, while the Crossover continues to sweep all rivals aside. That is not to say they have lost their appeal, in 2020 Glass’s average residual value for Convertibles rose significantly due to an uptick in demand as shown in the chart below. This will have been helped by extremely good weather, but also possibly due to people treating themselves to something as the global COVID-19 pandemic affected other areas considered a luxury, like overseas holidays.    

Average RV% 3 yr old convertible/cabriolet graph 2020 vs 2019

Launch Report: Volkswagen Caddy – improved engines and specifications

The Volkswagen (VW) Caddy has been redesigned from the ground up, with improved safety, space, engines, and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS). The fit and finish, digital cockpit, and general specification improvements make the model feel more like a VW passenger car. The driving dynamics are very good too, with outstanding roadholding and vehicle stability, as well as a good level of comfort.

Both the Caddy and the Caddy Maxi have grown in length and wheelbase, providing more cargo space. As the model is bigger, the maximum payload is slightly lower, but is the highest among key competitors. However, the loading volume of the Caddy is slightly below average, with the cargo space allowing for just one Euro pallet (only the long-wheelbase Maxi version accommodates two), while most competitors take two in standard form.

The new model hosts a comprehensive offer of assistance systems, including trailer-assist, which is a unique selling point in the segment. The modern interior and digital cockpit are advantageous for dual-use customers, i.e. drivers that use the vehicle for both commercial and private purposes.

The latest Euro 6 diesel engines benefit from huge emissions reductions and better fuel economy, supported by the new double SCR (selective catalytic-reduction) system. The 102-horsepower 2.0TDI has the lowest fuel consumption and CO2 emissions among its key rivals. There is not a fully-electric version of the new Caddy available, unlike small PSA Group and Renault vans. However, a plug-in hybrid (PHEV) version is planned for 2022. A compressed natural gas (CNG) version is already available in France, and will be available to order in Spain from December 2021.

The Caddy has a lower entry list price than its predecessor, but pricing is generally higher than those of other mainstream competitors. However, the fuel savings and reduced CO2 emissions will improve running costs and should entice new buyers. Furthermore, the development of working-from-home, and closures of non-essential retail, have led to an increase in home deliveries, benefiting demand for vans, and their residual values (RVs).

Click here or on the image below to read Autovista Group’s benchmarking of the VW Caddy in France, Germany, Spain and the UK. The interactive launch report presents new prices, forecast RVs and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis.

Caddy

Used Car Market Update- February 2021

Used Car Auction Wholesale Market

At the beginning of February, it was still unclear how long this latest lockdown would continue, or how restrictions would be lifted or eased once it ended. Crucially for the UK used car industry, there was, therefore, no indication when showrooms and sales sites could open to “physical” customers.

The use of online selling and suitably distanced handovers has certainly helped dealers achieve more sales than would have been considered possible twelve months ago, but for many buyers, there is no substitute for actually seeing the car they are buying before they sign on the dotted line.

Therefore, it should come as no surprise that the used car wholesale market in February was relatively steady. Auction sale volume was slightly lower than in January, yet understandably was significantly lower than February 2020. Similarly, the first time conversion rate of 76.5% was only 1.7% lower than January’s score but over 12% lower than a year ago.

Used car market first time conversion rate graph February 2021
Used car market percentage of original cost new graph February 2021

Charts based on a representative sample of current UK auction data but excludes observations from British Car Auctions

As usual, the cars that sold best were the ones in good condition, with the desirable specification. Without the need for restocking, there was even less desire than usual to buy cars that need work. It was noticeable that demand increased right at the end of the month following the announcements regarding the route out of lockdown.

Used Car Retail Market

Whilst February’s used car auction market was relatively steady, the used car retail market performed fairly well despite the ongoing lockdown. The number of observed sales were up almost 14% compared to January, as was the average sale value, albeit only by 2.3%. Unsurprisingly, the number of sales were almost 13% lower than for February 2020 but still promising given the challenging circumstances.

Used car retail market observations graph February 2021
Used car market average sale price February 2021

The length of time a car spends on the forecourt is a good indication of its retail popularity, and it is one of the pieces of data that GlassNet Radar records. February’s average of 57.8 days was 6.1 days higher than for January and almost 15 days higher than the average stay in February 2020. This is not surprising given the current situation and is likely to improve once sales sites can open fully.

Used car market average days to sell February 2021

Outlook

The announcement towards the end of February of the phased lifting of lockdown restrictions led to an improvement in used car auction activity, and it is reasonable to expect that this will continue through March. The introduction of the new registration plate usually leads to an increase in auction activity towards the end of the month, however, Glass’s expects registration volumes to be significantly lower than in 2019 (the last “COVID-free” March!), and even last year, so demand may well exceed supply which should lead to a strengthening of hammer prices.

Ford Puma – The changing face of automotive

Approximately, one in three car buyers in Europe is choosing an SUV. As part of a drive to increase SUV penetration, the Ford Motor Company resurrected the Ford Puma name in 2019, but in keeping with current trends, this time for a small SUV rather than a small Fiesta-based agile coupe as it did in the 1990s. This was a controversial move among Ford fans, but the result is a model that has a crossover stance and a bigger boot than the Ford Focus and sits in Ford’s European range halfway between the Ecosport and the new Kuga.

Based on the seventh generation Fiesta chassis, the new Puma looks differ from many crossovers on the road, offering a much sportier stance. Proving popular from launch, it continues to impress critics recently winning What Car? – Car of the Year in 2020.

2019 Ford Puma ST-Line

The new Ford Puma offers a sporty on-road presence

Overall the vehicle appears a little tall, but Ford’s engineers have created an SUV that is composed and offers an excellent drive, with a first-rate manual gearbox, direct steering and minimal body roll. With some shared parts from the current Fiesta, the Puma feels as engaging as many well-sorted hatchbacks.

The current entry-level Puma – the Titanium, offers a very impressive specification including 17-inch alloy wheels, projector headlights and Ford’s SYNC 3 navigation with 8-inch TFT touchscreen display as standard, as well as an array of safety features. It comes fitted with a mild-hybrid 1.0 litre EcoBoost petrol engine in manual transmission, offered as a 125PS and 155PS variant. An automatic version is also available, although this the automatic version does not have a mild-hybrid engine.

Prices start at £22,040, rising to £29,445 for the range-topping ST with Performance Pack, which is fitted with a 1.5 litre 200PS version of the EcoBoost engine.

The Puma was Ford’s first new car to include the ‘Ford MegaBox’, which enhances the boots capacity by 80 litres, giving the car class-leading load space of 456 litres. The ‘MegaBox’ provides a deep, versatile storage space that is capable of comfortably accommodating two golf bags in an upright position.

The ‘Ford MegaBox’

Residual Values

Comparing Glass’s Forecast values for the Ford Puma with the average for the B segment, it performs favourably at 3-years, 30,000 miles. As the graph below shows, Glass’s Forecast suggests the Puma will achieve a residual value equating to 50% of the original cost new prices, whereas the average for the B segment is just over 40%.

The Ford Puma outperforms the B-Segment

Summary

There is no doubt that the Puma has strong rivals, including models from its own stable, however with a good mix of style and practicality the car appeals to a wide demographic. With small SUV sales continuing to climb, the Puma is an extremely important model for Ford. With mild-hybrid technology and the 1.0-litre EcoBoost engine ensuring low cost of ownership, today, the Puma is an excellent small SUV choice.

New Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Market February 2021

The new light commercial vehicle market grew by 22.0% in February. This positive high-level figure includes delayed pipeline orders and is set against the typically quiet month preceding the new March plate. Year-to-date, the light commercial vehicle market is 9.5% up overall versus 2020, with large increases in all sectors except those vans under 2.0 tonnes.

SMMT data indicates that the 17,205 February registration total is 3,102 units more than in February 2020 and is the strongest February on record since 1998 (18,044).

Breaking down the results reveals the only disappointment was a 25.3% registration decline for vans under 2.0 tonnes. Registrations for vans between 2.0-2.5 tonnes increased 9.0% whilst demand from construction and online deliveries saw the between 2.5-3.5 tonne sector improve by 30.0%. The Pickup sector also recorded a 26.8% increase.

The Ford Transit Custom failed to hold on to the number one position, deposed by its big brother, the Ford Transit. Nevertheless, Ford still managed to place four of its product ranges in the top ten.  The Ford Transit in top spot followed by the Ford Transit Custom in second, the Ford Ranger in seventh place and Ford Transit Connect in eighth.

Top five LCV registrations

Top Five LCV Registrations

Capitalising on this registration momentum will be vital as the UK emerges from lockdown with an economic plan that encourages LCV growth and gives businesses confidence to upgrade to cleaner and more sustainable fleets.

The March Budget froze fuel duty rates for an eleventh consecutive year. This is likely to be the last year fleets can expect a freeze, as the Treasury commits to a net-zero emissions target by 2050. The ambitious targets set to address climate change and meet air quality goals mean the fastest way to achieve these goals is to instil business confidence and encourage the take-up of the latest low emission vehicles.

February used Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) overview

  • LCV used market buoyant in February
  • Easing lockdown likely to determine how quickly the economy recovers
  • New stock shortages forcing franchised dealers to source late-plate stock

February has seen the used market in buoyant form overall, with prices remaining strong for anything that can easily be turned around quickly. Even the minibus sector that has struggled over the last 12 months due to COVID restrictions is seeing values firm as buyers look to stock up in readiness for the easing of lockdown regulations. Forward Control vehicles and 4×4 Pick-ups have also seen a performance improvement.

First-time conversion rates remain high for ready-to-retail panel vans, driven mainly by the expanding home shopping market. There has been a noticeable increase in damaged vehicles on offer, with the number of provisional sales increasing as well. With many of these turned into sales after the event, it is only those with damage now avoided by the trade. Demand remained strong for the small numbers of clean, late-year retail stock, forcing those prices ever higher. With a lack of new de-fleet stock to ease supply and demand issues, prices look set to remain high for at least the first half of 2021.

The severe shortage of new stock at dealerships is not only forcing fleets to run their vehicles for longer but is forcing franchised dealers into the used market to source late-year stock. This extra layer of competition for the trade is pushing prices ever higher. On the plus side, the recent lifting of government restrictions on the sale of repossessed vehicles should benefit the used market with an increase in volume over the next few months.

With global vaccinations on the increase, the easing of lockdown measures will determine how quickly the new market recovers, in turn, increasing volume in the used market.

Although sales at auction in February increased by just under 13% compared to January 2021, sales over the same month last year decreased by over 17%. Only 8.5% of those sales were less than 2 years old, whilst nearly a third of all sales were in the 2-4yr old age bracket.

Medium-sized vans again proved the most versatile and popular in the used market, increasing market share in February by 3.5% to 38.5% of all sales, followed by Small vans with 28%.

February in detail

Glass’s auction data shows the overall number of LCV sales in February declined by 12.9% versus January 2021, whilst first-time conversion rates decreased 1.5% to 84.2%.

Average sales prices paid in February increased by a dramatic 5.5% versus January and are now a staggering 36% higher than the same point last year. The average age of sold stock increased slightly from 68.8 months in January to 69 months in February and was 6.8 months younger than the same point last year.

Average mileages also increased from 75,532 miles in January to 79,936 miles in February and was just 311 miles lower than at the same point last year.

Glass’s continues to monitor the LCV market closely and has an open dialogue with auction houses, manufacturers, leasing and rental companies, independent traders and dealers as well as the main industry bodies. This information, combined with the wealth of knowledge in our CV team ensures Glass’s valuations remain relevant in the market place.

Only battery and hydrogen cars to be sold in the UK from 2035

The UK government has published the results of a consultation on banning new fossil-fuel vehicles. The document confirms a phased approach to zero-carbon-only registrations beginning in 2030.

The first step will see new petrol and diesel models banned from sale. Vehicles that can travel a ‘significant’ distance on zero-emission technology, including some hybrids and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), will be sold until 2035. After this point, only zero-carbon technologies, such as battery-electric (BEV) and hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), will be available.

Another consultation later this year will determine what constitutes a ‘significant’ distance that hybrid vehicles need to travel emission-free.

The consultation around the advancement of dates reviewed four key areas of concern over the plans. These included the readiness of the chargepoint infrastructure, the preparedness of the vehicle-manufacturing industry, inadequate battery supply, and the impact on consumers.

Some vehicle manufacturers raised concerns that hydrogen-fuel infrastructure provision had not yet been rolled out to an extent that would stimulate the uptake of FCEVs. These respondents stated that this is particularly important for ensuring all car and van market segments can transition to zero-emission, especially those that may not be suitable for BEVs.

However, in response to these concerns, the government highlighted the various funding schemes in place to increase infrastructure and support manufacturing. It pointed towards a report by the Faraday Institution that suggested 1.6 million BEVs a year would be built in the UK by 2040, with an additional 40,000 jobs created in the sector by 2030.

UK manufacturing

There is a mixed response amongst manufacturers over the future of their UK plants. Nissan and Jaguar Land Rover are dedicated to building BEVs in the country, with the Japanese carmaker bringing battery production to the UK. However, Stellantis is concerned about the UK’s 2030 ban and is in talks with the government to secure funding for the future of Ellesmere Port.

‘As soon as you say that we are going to ban the sales of this kind of car, we will stop investing,’ Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares commented at the launch of the merged automotive group. ‘If we are told that in 2030, internal combustion engines cannot be sold in the UK, which we respect as a decision from the country, then we are not going to invest in ICE anymore because that makes no sense.’

In response to concerns over hydrogen, the consultation response document states: ‘The FCEV and hydrogen refuelling market is in its infancy and government has taken steps to support its growth in the UK. The transport decarbonisation plan will discuss the potential role for hydrogen in decarbonising the transport sector, including road transport.

‘In addition, we have announced plans to publish a hydrogen strategy, which will set out a whole system view of developing the UK hydrogen economy, including how we will work with industry to create 5GW of low-carbon hydrogen production for use across the economy by 2030.’

There was also discussion around eFuels, which can significantly lower the emissions from internal combustion engines. However, the consultation response highlights the unknown nature of emissions from this technology. ‘By 2035, zero must mean zero,’ it states.

Funding round

The UK government is launching a research and development competition for electrically-chargeable vehicle (EV) innovations. Those entering could benefit from a share of £20 million (€23 million) in funding. This comes following the publication of consultation results surrounding a ban on fossil-fuel vehicles from 2030.

The investment fund is part of the government’s drive to ‘build back greener’ following the economic damage inflicted by COVID-19. Technologies that could benefit include zero-emission emergency vehicles, charging technology or battery-recycling schemes. It hopes that the EV design and manufacturing sector could create around 6,000 skilled jobs.

‘Investing in innovation is crucial in decarbonising transport, which is why I’m delighted to see creative zero-emission projects across the UK come to life,’ commented transport secretary Grant Shapps.

‘The funding announced today will help harness some of the brightest talents in the UK tech industry, encouraging businesses to become global leaders in EV innovation, creating jobs and accelerating us towards our net-zero ambitions.’

Innovative ideas

Previous winners of government research investment include a zero-emission ambulance prototype. Designed by ULEMCo, it can reach speeds of 90mph and travel an average of 200 miles a day with zero-emissions. Another successful entrant was Urban Foresight, which used its £3 million share to develop ‘pop-up’ street chargers. These are located in pavements and provide discreet access to charging infrastructure for those without off-street parking.

The uptake of EVs is increasing in the UK. As the technology also plays a crucial role in the government’s ‘Road to Zero’ plans, more needs to be done to support the sale of the technology with new innovations and ease-of-access to infrastructure.

By releasing this latest funding now, the government also hopes to have new ideas and technologies in place in time for its ban on new fossil-fuel vehicles coming into action in 2030.

Video: Europe’s registrations struggle in February but improvements to come

Autovista Group Daily Brief editor Phil Curry discusses the registration figures from Europe’s big five automotive markets. While numbers may be down, the outlook for the whole year is more positive…

To get notifications for all the latest videos, you can subscribe for free to the Autovista Group Daily Brief YouTube channel.

Show notes

Lockdown drives German new-car registrations down by 19% in February

February UK new-car registrations plunge to level of 1959

Significant downturns in European registrations in February

Conditional reopening of German car showrooms

England’s car showrooms to remain closed until 12 April

Podcast: How is European automotive adapting to pandemic and climate-change fallout?

Daily Brief editor Phil Curry and journalist Tom Geggus discuss key activities and developments in the European automotive sector from the past fortnight. These include COVID-19’s effect on the uptake of mobility-as-a-service (MAAS), different fuel types, and autonomous technology.

https://soundcloud.com/autovistagroup/consumers-post-covid-automotive-outlook

Show notes

Cazoo buys Cluno as CaaS options increase

Significant downturns in European registrations in February

Lockdown drives German new-car registrations down by 19% in February

February UK new-car registrations plunge to level of 1959

VW accelerates towards electric and digital future

VW aims for commercialised autonomous systems in 2025

Is it too early to go ‘EV-only’?

Ford to be zero-emission capable in Europe by 2026

Jaguar makes BEV and hydrogen changes on path to net zero

Volvo to go all electric and online by 2030

E-fuels gain awareness as Mazda joins alliance

February UK new-car registrations plunge to level of 1959

The ongoing restrictions on dealership activity resulted in a 35.5% year-on-year decline in new-car registrations in the UK in February 2021. Autovista Group senior data journalist Neil King explores the latest figures and the market outlook.

A total of 51,312 new cars were registered in the UK in January, according to data released by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). The association highlighted that ‘the industry recorded its lowest February uptake since 1959.’

The UK emerged from its second lockdown on 2 December, only to see new regional restrictions imposed from 16 December. Subsequently, national lockdowns in England and Scotland were announced on 5 January, with ongoing restrictions in effect across the rest of the UK too.

There was a modest improvement in the market contraction in February, compared to the 39.5% year-on-year downturn in January. However, there were two fewer working days in the month than in January 2020 and, on an adjusted basis, the decline was therefore greater.

The UK registration figures continue to align with the Autovista Group expectation of a return to year-on-year declines of about 30% in countries where dealers are closed for physical car sales. The downturn in the UK during February, however, is larger than the 19% fall in Germany, where car showrooms are also closed. The contraction is also greater than in France and Italy, although dealers were open in these markets.

The only major European market to suffer more than the UK in February was Spain. Although dealers are open, the country is in a perfect storm, enduring a third wave of the pandemic, a weak economy and a fall in consumer confidence, in addition to the end of the RENOVE scrappage scheme and an increase in car-registration taxes.

EVs challenge diesels

UK registrations of petrol and diesel cars fell by 44.5% and 61.0% respectively, but still held a combined 65.3% share of the market. Registrations of standard hybrids (HEVs) also declined, by 22.8%, but the upward trend for plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) continued, with a 52.1% rise. Moreover, demand for battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) grew by 40.2% and electrically-chargeable vehicles (EVs) accounted for 13.0% of registrations, challenging diesel cars, which gained a 13.2% share.

February 2021 new car registrations SMMT

Source: SMMT

‘However, increasing uptake of these new technologies to the levels required by 2030 remains a mammoth task, with yesterday’s budget proving a missed opportunity given the lack of measures to support the market overall and notably the transition away from pure petrol and diesel cars and vans,’ the SMMT emphasised.

Delayed recovery

On 22 February, UK prime minister Boris Johnson outlined the roadmap for easing restrictions in England, with non-essential retail, including car showrooms, able to reopen no earlier than 12 April. In Scotland, this is expected from the last week of April. The next review of restrictions in Wales is on 12 March, with non-essential retail possibly able to reopen as soon as 15 March. A timetable for easing restrictions in Northern Ireland has not been announced, although a review is planned for 16 March.

Accordingly, Autovista Group’s latest base-case forecast has been lowered to 1.86 million units, equating to 14% improvement in new-car registrations in 2021, with further growth of 11% predicted in 2022. This is predicated upon vaccination progress preventing any further lockdowns in 2021 and new-car deliveries being largely unimpaired by semiconductor shortages and/or post-Brexit border delays. Similarly, the SMMT has revised its market outlook to 1.83 million new-car registrations in 2021, down from the 1.89 million units predicted in January.

In a downside scenario, however, greater disruption to new-car registrations (and supply) is assumed for 2021, further reducing the opportunity to recover losses later in the year. The forecast for this worst-case scenario is for UK new-car registrations to recover by only 10% in 2021, to about 1.79 million units, with further growth of only 9% in 2022.

In a more positive upside scenario, the UK automotive sector will emerge more positively, with dealers quickly returning to full operational capacity to meet increased demand. A less-severe impact on the wider economy would also bolster new-car registrations in 2021 and beyond. In this scenario, the UK new-car market is forecast to grow by 18% in 2021, to over 1.9 million units, and expand by 13% in 2022.

Dealers stifled

Mike Hawes, chief executive of the SMMT, commented; ‘these closures have stifled dealers’ preparations for March with the expectation that this will now be a third, successive dismal ‘new plate month’. Although we have a pathway out of restrictions with rapid vaccine rollout, and proven experience in operating click-and-collect, it is essential that showrooms reopen as soon as possible so the industry can start to build back better, and recover the £23 billion (€26.7 billion) loss from the past year.’

With car showrooms closed in most (and likely all) of the UK until at least 12 April, order intake will continue to be suppressed, further delaying the automotive recovery. An improvement in orders is expected in April, especially with the release of pent-up demand, but is unlikely to translate into significantly healthier registration volumes until May. Autovista Group estimates that the extended lockdown in the UK will result in the loss of approximately 200,000 new-car registrations between January and April, most of which will not rematerialise later in the year.

The Van’s Headlights: The Life and Times of a British Conglomerate

Successive UK politicians continue a generational battle to keep Britain’s homegrown manufacturing alive, even while pure economics would have consigned them to history many times over.

One particular manufacturing company that had more problems than many over the years, with name changes, mergers and buyouts rarely improving its profit forecast was the British powerhouse of British Leyland Motor Corporation Ltd (BLMC). In this article, Glass’s Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor, Andy Picton, takes a potted look at BLMC’s struggles with light commercial vehicles (LCVs).

History

BLMC formed in 1968 with the merger of British Motor Holdings (BMH) and Leyland Motor Corporation (LMC) and encouraged by the Wilson Labour Government (1964–1970), created an automotive group with a 40% UK market share. At its peak, BLMC owned nearly 40 different manufacturing plants across the UK.

Even before the merger, the BMH stable of marques competed with “badge engineered” cars and LCVs. The merger added more internal competition from the LMC marques. What followed was a story of ineffectual management, poor product design and quality, serious industrial relations problems and the 1973 oil crisis. Combined, this resulted in an unmanageable, financially crippled behemoth heading towards bankruptcy. The company’s 1970’s legacy created an infamous monument to the industrial turmoil of the period.

Many vehicles including LCVs were badge-engineering exercises offered under different brand names including Austin and Morris. For LCVs, this policy remained until 1970 when the Morris J4 and Austin 250JU became Austin-Morris products.

By the early 1970s, the outdated vans were rapidly losing ground to the Ford Transit and Bedford CF. Plans were put in motion to build and launch a new van that would equal the competition. The all-new Sherpa launched in late 1974, with both Leyland and Austin Morris badging.

Despite containing profitable marques such as Jaguar, Rover and Land Rover, as well as the best-selling Mini, British Leyland had a troubled history, leading to its eventual bankruptcy in 1975 and subsequent part-nationalisation.

The Wilson/Callaghan Labour Government (1974–1979) took control, creating a new holding company named British Leyland Limited (BL) of which the government was the major shareholder. The company was now organised into the following three divisions:

  • Leyland Cars
    • The largest UK car manufacturer
    • 128,000 employees
    • 36 locations
    • Production capacity one million vehicles per year
  • Leyland Truck and Bus
    • The largest commercial and passenger vehicle manufacturer in the UK
    • 31,000 employees
    • 12 locations
    • Production 38,000 trucks, 8,000 buses and 19,000 tractors per year
  • Leyland Special Products
    • A miscellaneous collection of acquired businesses

By 1977, all vans were sold under the Morris brand. A further change saw the Sherpa move into the Land Rover division in 1981, under the newly created Freight Rover brand.

By this time the Sherpa van was unsurprisingly dating quickly against the competition. Sales of the Transit far outstripped the Sherpa, whilst imported vehicles from Volkswagen, Fiat, Citroen, Renault and Iveco were gaining a foothold in the market.

Freight Rover

With the Sherpa under its wing. Freight Rover commissioned the K2 facelift in 1982 renaming it the 200. In 1986 the company introduced the wider bodied 300 van and chassis derivatives opening previously untapped sales opportunities.

Success followed and Freight Rover was moved into the Leyland Trucks Division. With improving profitability, the Freight Rover business caught the eye of General Motors in 1986. At this point, they made a bid to buy both the truck division and Land Rover from BL. The deal was vetoed by the British Government because they did not want to sell the iconic Land Rover brand to the American company. Although the truck division was still available for sale, GM’s interest waned and Dutch company, DAF Trucks, secured the purchase the following year.

DAF Trucks/Leyland DAF

The trucks were manufactured in Eindhoven, Holland and Leyland, Lancashire whilst the 200 and renamed 400 Series continued production in Washwood Heath, Birmingham. Both the trucks and vans were sold under the Leyland DAF banner in the UK.

By early 1988 planning for a much-needed replacement for the ageing 200/400 Series was progressing. With limited product development capabilities in-house, the styling of the new standard width and the wide-bodied van was outsourced to the Bertone design house in Italy.

The management team were not convinced the Bertone styling worked, with Leyland DAF wanting more of a family look between the vehicles. The work was outsourced again, this time to MGA, the designers who had worked on the K2 facelift and high roof versions. By the summer of 1988, with sketches completed, MGA produced clay models and then full-size prototypes codenamed LDV201 and LDV202

An overall lack of finances at Leyland DAF at this time, combined with strong sales of the 200/400 series  – 13,234 sales and a 15.6% market share in 1992 – meant the company was under pressure to launch the new van range. Increasing costs meant the new project would be mothballed until Renault was brought in to partner the programme in 1989. Sadly, a lack of direction saw the whole project cancelled by Leyland DAF in 1993, deciding to develop the existing Sherpa models instead.

The proposed facelift did not see the light of day, as continued financial difficulties forced Leyland DAF to file for bankruptcy later that year.

Renault

With agreement sought from DAF, Renault took over the entire development. Recognising that their current Master van was ageing, the LDV201/202 programme was abandoned in favour of a single model that would be the basis for their new Master range of light commercials.

In 1995, Renault signed an agreement with Iveco to help develop a cab for the second generation Master, Mascott and third-generation Daily models. However, due to rising costs, General Motors Europe was brought in as another partner. The second-generation Master was launched in 1997, with rebadged GM versions of the Opel/Vauxhall Movano and alliance partner, the Nissan Interstar launching the following year. The third generation Iveco Daily also shared many panels and cab components, including the doors. Named International Van of the Year (IVOTY) in 1998, a facelift followed in 2003, with an all-new model debuting in 2010. It too was sold by Vauxhall and Nissan, with the latter promoted as the NV400.

GAZ Group

At the same time, the collapse of the project also allowed the International Automotive Design (IAD) Group, which had been engineering the vehicle for LDV, to join forces with Gorkovsky Avtomobilny Zavod (GAZ) Group of Russia. IAD used many of the existing features to develop the bodywork design and new independent front axle suspension of the old LDV201 for the all-new GAZ Gazelle van, pick-up and minibus range.

The GAZ Gazelle went into production on the 20th July 1994, with the first vehicles rolling off the production line on the 26th of August 1994. The Gazelle has gone on to be synonymous with light commercial vehicles in Russia and other Eastern European countries selling over one million units by August 2005.

Popularity has continued to grow, with GAZ now employing over 40,000 staff and operating 13 production sites in Russia as well as assembly facilities in Turkey and Kazakhstan. The Gazelle is now sold in 40 countries across Europe, Scandinavia, Latin America, Africa, Asia and the Middle East. By 2015, annual production had increased to nearly 69,000 units.

LDV Limited

Back in the UK, the Leyland DAF van business was sold off in 1996 and LDV Limited was formed. Both the 200 and the 400 were given facelifts and renamed the Pilot and the Convoy respectively. The Pilot was available in 1.9t, 2.2t and 2.6t gross vehicle weights, while the Convoy was available in 2.8t, 3.1t and 3.5t low roof (City), high roof (Hi-Loader) and Chassis variants.

The easy to maintain vehicles made them popular with operators such as Royal Mail, the Police and local authorities, with the Convoy achieving a market share of 10.5% by the end of 1998.

Although selling well, it was clear that the Pilot and Convoy origins which harked back to 1974 were completely out of date and out of tune with the current marketplace. A joint development programme was signed with Daewoo in 1998 with a plan to quadruple output to 80,000 units by 2005.

The Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998 hit Daewoo hard and the partnership with LDV ended in November 2000, when the Korean car manufacturer went into receivership. The replacements for Convoy, codenamed LD100 and the Pilot BD100 replacement, were dead in the water before they had started.

Not to be deterred, LDV dropped the BD100 and purchased the rights to the LD100 from Daewoo moving 6,000 tons of tooling by road and rail from Daewoo’s factory in Lublin, Poland to the Washwood Heath and the LDV Maxus was born.

Available in two wheelbases and three roof heights at either 2.8t, 3.2t or 3.5t GVW, the VM Motori powered 2.5TD engine with outputs of 95bhp, 120bhp and 135bhp, launched in February 2005.

The front-wheel-drive LDV Maxus received good reviews and was a regular sight in National grid, Royal Mail, AA and British police force liveries, being awarded Professional Van and Light Truck Magazine “Van of the Year 2005”.

However, the additional costs of ‘going it alone’ put LDV under further financial pressure, eventually going into administration later in 2005. US investors Sun Capital bought the company, only to sell them on to the Russian van maker, GAZ Group in July 2006.

Plans to expand production in Birmingham, add new product lines and enter new markets were announced. GAZ also planned to produce vehicles in Russia and sell an additional 50,000 units annually worldwide. However, due to the global financial crisis in 2008 and a lack of investment, these plans never materialised.

Production ceased at the Birmingham factory in December 2008 when a last-ditch attempt to save LDV by the British Government and WestStar Corporation failed.

Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC)

LDV continued to sell its existing stock and the entity was sold in 2010 to the Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC).

The van continued in production and was manufactured under the MAXUS name for the Chinese market and selected left-hand drive markets in Europe, whilst with help of distributors The Harris Group, the same range was launched in late 2015 as the LDV V80 and EV80 for the UK, Ireland and right hand drive Europe.

As the MAXUS brand has grown globally and as its products became more established, the decision was made to realign the companies. As a result, LDV rebranded as MAXUS in 2020, coinciding with the launch of two new models; the all-new Deliver 9 diesel range replacing the V80/EV80 and the all-new small electric van, the e-Deliver 3. The e-Deliver 9 electric van launched at the end of 2020.