Article Type: News

The SEAT Ibiza: 36 years young

Introduced at the Paris Motor Show in 1984, the SEAT Ibiza reached UK shores a year later. Initially it met with a lukewarm reception, and was viewed as being at the budget end of the market competing with Hyundai’s Pony, Lada’s Riva, Skoda’s Estelle and FSO’s Polonez. Over time, the perception of the Ibiza has changed. SEAT continues to update and renew the Ibiza range with around six million units sold worldwide so far.

History of the SEAT Ibiza

The Ibiza was the first fully independent model offered by SEAT after a long collaboration with Fiat, making the SEAT Panda, later being renamed the SEAT Marbella essentially a Fiat Panda.

Named after the Balearic Island, the Ibiza launched with excellent levels of specification including; power locking doors, electric windows and sunroof. These items were highly regarded at the time for a small car. The styling was by Giorgetto Giugiaro’s Italdesign, and prepared for production by the German manufacturer Karmann. The powertrain was developed in collaboration with Porsche and despite Porsche’s direct involvement, SEAT had to pay royalties to put the ‘System Porsche’ inscription on the engine blocks and down the flanks of the car.

The Mk1 base model’s UK list price of around £4,995, was very competitive even in the mid-eighties. The competitive pricing, design and engines proved to be a winning formula allowing SEAT to sell 1,342,001 units of the first generation over 10 years of production. In a final swansong in 1992, the Mk1 Ibiza was the official car of the Barcelona Olympics.

In 1986 Volkswagen became the majority shareholder in SEAT, introducing enhanced parts and production processes to the Spanish brand. In 1993, the Mk2 Ibiza launched, styled again by Giorgetto Giugiaro at Italdesign, whilst also benefitting from Volkswagen’s modified MK3 Golf platform. Engines included the 2.0 litre 150PS unit from the Golf GTi making its debut in the Cupra version. This gave SEAT an advantage over its stablemate, the Volkswagen Polo, which could not accommodate this engine. Additionally, diesel TDi units from Volkswagen made for some very fast and frugal versions. Mk2 production ended in 2002.

Designed in house by Walter de’Silva, the Mk3 launched in 2002 was a more overt evolution. Growing in size, it was now capable of comfortably accommodating five adults whilst also gaining more boot space. Only produced for six years, this generation featured the biggest step change in design, dynamics and features. The Cupra was a notable addition to the range including a 1.9 TDi 160PS / 330 Nm diesel variant, with excellent driving dynamics.  What Car? Supermini winner for three years running showed that the Ibiza Mk3 was a serious contender in the Supermini sector.

In September 2005, Luc Donckerwolke was appointed SEAT Design Director. Previously he was responsible for the 2001 Lamborghini Diablo VT 6.0, 2002 Lamborghini Murciélago and 2004 Lamborghini Gallardo. Bringing strong design credentials to the brand, the 2008 Mk4 Ibiza launched with sharper styling and a new estate model named ST in 2010. This was a notable volume benefit for the range, especially as small estate cars continue to be a rather uncommon offering in UK model line-ups. The Mk4 ran successfully until 2017.

The Mk5 launched in 2017. It was a gentle but effective update with all dimensions changed, yet it kept much of the styling cues from the previous generation. The specification levels and dynamics are among the highest in the Supermini sector.

Residual values

The Ibiza has represented excellent value for money since its launch 36 years ago. This value for money also extends to the used market. Expressing average residual values as a percentage of the original cost new price it is possible to compare the Ibiza with the Supermini segment as a whole. The Ibiza sits just below the average, which considering the segment includes some of the UK’s most popular cars such as the Ford Fiesta and the Volkswagen Polo, we should conclude that the Ibiza’s residual value performance is very good, whilst from a consumer’s point of view, it offers excellent value for money.

Seat Ibiza 3 year old average RV percentage graph

The Skoda Fabia: Skoda’s supermini

Volkswagen mechanicals

Introduced to the public in September 1999 at the Frankfurt motor show, the Skoda Fabia went into full production the following month replacing the Skoda Felicia. Initially producing only hatchback and saloon variants, at the Paris Motor show in September 2000, Skoda introduced the estate Fabia Combi. The Fabia’s success stemmed from Volkswagen developed mechanicals. These reputable underpinnings brought quality and reliability to the Eastern European brand coupled with Skoda’s value driven pricing.

Skoda introduced the Fabia vRS variant in 2003. Unusually for a hot hatch, power came from only a diesel engine with no petrol alternative. Around the top Gear track, the Fabia vRS proved to be quicker than similarly priced Mini Cooper. Today the Fabia vRS has something of a cult following with many modified by enthusiasts. Current retail values of the early variants are in the region of £1,700.

In 2004 Skoda launched the first Fabia facelift with revised front grille, fog lights and remodelled the rear lights whilst also introducing the Sport variant. Initial power for this variant was a 1.4 petrol engine, however that was quickly dropped in favour of the less powerful but free revving 1.2 HTP engine. Further minor specification revisions launched in 2006.

The Skoda Fabia vRS SE

In 2007 Skoda produced 1,000 limited edition Fabia vRS SE’s featuring individually numbered black leather seats with blue piping, sporty red brake callipers, “Race Blue” metallic paint, cruise control, darkened rear windows and a six CD auto-changer. Glass’s Live Retail pricing shows used examples currently advertised in the region of £3,000.

The second generation Skoda Fabia, introduced in March 2007 at the Geneva Motor Show was longer than its predecessor and took some styling cues from the Skoda Roomster. The engines were a mix of newer Volkswagen Group engines with some carry-overs from the first generation model.

The second generation facelift launched in 2010 with the bumper restyled together with the front fog lights making the revised car look noticeably different from its predecessor. Revision of the engine line-up saw the introduction of the 1.2 TSI turbo charged petrol engine.  A sports vRS version also returned to the range featuring the engine from the Volkswagen MK5 Polo GTI, a 1.4 twin-charged petrol unit producing 180PS. Today, Glass’s data suggests that consumers should expect to pay around £4,500 in the current used market.

New Safety Features Launched

October 2014 saw the third generation Fabia released at the Paris Motor Show offering more passenger room with an extended wheelbase. Safety was a big part of the third generation and came equipped with the front assist safety system which gathers data to automatically brake in the event of an emergency. All of the engine selections came from the MK5 Volkswagen Polo. The 2018 model year saw another facelift for Fabia and Fabia Combi. The biggest change was the removal of all diesel engines from the range.

The Supermini Segment

The Skoda Fabia falls into one of the most competitive segments in the UK car market – the Supermini segment. The following chart compares average Fabia residual values at five years of age against the Supermini segment as a whole. It clearly demonstrates that the Fabia holds its own in a fiercely competitive environment.

Residual value percentage for a 5 year old Skoda Fabia versus the Supermini Segment from 2019 to 2020

Mondeo Man

Registrations of Ford Mondeos fell below 5,000 in 2019.  It is a far cry from the circa 100,000 registered back in 1998, when Mondeo was the staple of company car fleets , with drivers often referred to as  ‘Mondeo Man’.

So what happened to demand?

In the early 2000’s, ‘Mondeo Man’ was fast becoming ‘BMW 3-series Man’. The reality was that all mainstream manufactures of the time lost market share to German premium brands. Ford Mondeo was a top seller in the Upper Medium D-segment, so the decline is significant as shown in the following chart.

Ford mondeo new registrations graph

Data courtesy of SMMT

In reality, it is possible that ‘Mondeo Man’ actually became ‘Focus Man’.  Ford introduced the Focus in 1998, coinciding with Mondeo’s reduction in registrations.  The graph below shows that in the first full year of production, Focus sales hit over 100,000 and continued to climb. In 2002, Ford exceeded 150,000 registrations, no doubt helped by consumers beginning to downsize their cars.

Ford focus registrations graph 1999-2019

Data courtesy of SMMT

Downsizing has not been the only change that has affected this market. The advent of new market sectors has also contributed to a change in traditional segment volumes. In late 2006 Nissan introduction the Qashqai, which enjoyed incredible success, allowing consumers the look and feel of an SUV without the price tag associated with the large SUVs of the time. Wishing to cash in on this emerging demand, other manufacturers followed, introducing a plethora of models on what felt like a monthly basis.

This is now having an impact on sales of C-segment – Lower Medium favourites like the Ford Focus and no doubt further affecting D-segment offerings like the Mondeo.  Ford were early to this market with Kuga in 2008 however, and by the end of 2019, had an impressive line-up of SUV and Crossover models.

Quite simply, a wider variety of models on offer and a more diverse range of body styles has turned the tide for what was a traditional market of hatchback and saloons in the UK.  Thankfully, Mondeo still has a place and its latest incarnation is as impressive as ever, offering consumers a variety of body styles as well as comprehensive drivetrains including hybrid.

Post-election automotive market

Boris Johnson’s gamble on a Christmas election has paid off, as the Conservative Party secured a majority of almost 80 seats, leaving Labour far behind.

Might there finally be an injection of stability following years of political wrangling resulting from the Brexit referendum? The UK now has a Government with a mandate to govern for a full term of five years and a political majority with the power to get policy approved in the House of Commons.

The list of policy changes Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party is promising is long, and begins today with the negotiation of post-Brexit trade deals. However, to muddy the Conservative victory, is a fermenting issue surrounding the unity of the United Kingdom especially the burgeoning force of the Scottish National Party (SNP). In Scotland, the SNP are very strong, conversely their influence in Westminster has disappeared resulting from the Conservative majority.  Additionally, in neighbourhoods across the UK unity needs to develop at some level for co-existence to develop once more between leavers and remainers. 

The implications of the General Election results for the automotive sector in general.

This morning, the stock and money markets responded positively to the election results. The main reason being that a no deal Brexit risk remains, but is now very unlikely. With this majority government in place, there is more chance of securing some form of regulatory alignment with the EU. Significantly, this means that the likelihood of the UK adopting World Trade Organisation (WTO) tariffs is very low removing the potential of significant price increases across the automotive sector.

The new Government has already spoken of building stability for business through both its social and economic policies, a “one-nation approach” reflecting diversity and inclusion within the automotive sector. With this goal, the priority for UK automotive is restore business and economic confidence and to enable the continued journey on the Road to Zero driving the growth in sales of ultra-low emission vehicles and changes to our mobility selections.

The UK automotive sector drives growth here and in the rest of the world. This Conservative Government needs to maintain our global competitiveness whilst delivering an ambitious deal with the EU to maintain free and frictionless trade.

Boom, Bust and Stagnation: The Brexit fall out for the used car industry

The resilience of diesel

At this time of political uncertainty, economic considerations continue to weigh on MPs’ minds as they debate the UK’s withdrawal from Europe. Brexit is leading to both a significant change in the UK’s relationship with other European countries and the opportunity to reopen the negotiation of trade deals directly with non-EU countries.

Many questions are shaping MPs’ and public opinion about the merits of a Brexit deal versus leaving the EU without a deal in parallel to the need for a political declaration on the future relationship the UK will have with the EU.

In a post-apocalyptic Brexit world with the potential of a weakened pound, no trade agreements and increased interest rates the potential fall out for the automotive industry is significant. Whilst the majority of economic projections suggest that Brexit will harm UK economic growth with increased barriers to trade between the UK and other countries many used car dealers are looking at how in the short and long term how Brexit will affect the used car market.

Trade tariffs

  • Any increase in trade tariffs with Europe will see imported car models from all European manufacturers rise in price
  • This is the most likely scenario with a No-Deal Brexit

Sterling

  • The dramatic drop in sterling in August is probably only a taste of what is to come – leading to further price increases for new cars
  • A no-deal scenario would likely see sterling fall 5-10%, causing a spike in inflation

The Bank of England

  • The Bank of England held interest rates at 0.75% on 19/09/2019, mentioning ‘Brexit uncertainties’ frequently in its decision. In the past, the Bank has described holding rates as a ‘wait-and-see’ approach to Brexit
  • With the deadline looming closer, the Bank might soon have to be more decisive
  • In the medium term though, the Bank’s intention is still to gradually increase rates closer to their pre-recessionary norms – but only if the UK’s departure from the EU goes smoothly

Manufacturers

  • Jaguar Land Rover is again planning a temporary shutdown of its main UK production plants for a week after Britain’s planned departure from the European Union on 31 October.
  • JLR was forced to close its sites in April, when Brexit was originally scheduled to happen. Mini, Vauxhall, and Honda, among others, also closed during April.
  • Twenty-three of the UK and Europe’s automotive industry bodies joined forces last week to stress the “catastrophic” impact of the UK leaving the EU without a formal deal would have on the industry’s operating model, due to increased border checks and wide-reaching tariffs.

The car market – no deal scenario

  • Potential of new car prices rising significantly
  • Demand for used cars reduces in response to increased prices
  • Used car demand increases, especially for low mileage, nearly new cars

Iconic V8 petrol power and good value?

There are many articles written in the car press about buying a modern classic and how you should get one now before they become too expensive. What happens if you buy the wrong one, never really to blossom into a real classic?

There are two schools of thought here. One, if all you want to do is make money, then playing safe is the way to go and invest in something where the demand of today will remain into the future. Remember too, that even a classic nameplate, such as the Porsche 911 can have versions and engines that dictate demand and therefore price, a lemon will always be a lemon.

The second school of thought is buy what you like. For a short time at least, it will never be the wrong choice. If you do not follow the crowd, chances are what you go for will be better value for money. The problem here is that short-term demand may not turn into a long-term investment that increases in value. Today’s favourite Silver Cloud may not be the silver lining you are looking for.

There are many bargains out there especially if you want a large petrol engine and there is nothing like the sound of a V8 roar. Amazingly, without resorting to cars with previous recorded accident damage, there are V8 engine cars available for under £1,500 in the current used car market. These include examples from prestige marques such as Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Jaguar and Lexus.

The mileages of many advertised vehicles are not particularly high either. Buying one certainly is affordable and running costs, while higher than ‘run of the mill’ cars can be reasonable with fuel consumption up to 28 to the gallon achievable with a light foot.

If stepping up a gear or two into a BMW M5 is your thing then Glass’s retail values suggest paying upwards of £8,000 unless it has some dubious history or prior damage recorded.  The comparable RS6 model from Audi will also cost around £8,000. If that is too much to pay, for around half the price, the Audi S6 is available. The S6 is slightly down on power compared to the M5 and the RS6 but still benefits from the brilliant road hugging Quattro system. The S6 has the same 4.2 V8 engine as the RS, just minus the twin Turbos, so at least in the wet it is a whole lot more manageable.

Perhaps getting a little old now but a Porsche 928 with its awesome 5.0 V8 power unit is definitely getting collectable now with prices starting at £14,000 for something that does not need too much work. If it does need work, it is going to cost dearly. However, if a value for money Porsche is required, the Cayenne 4.5 V8 is unbeatable from around £3,000. This is a massively powerful SUV for Fiat Panda money!

Moving into perhaps the most capable of all-rounders, Audi’s R8 with that useful Quattro grip, a car that is as happy going to the shops as it is on the race circuit, used prices start at a hefty £30,000 for an eleven-year-old model with 75,000 miles on the clock. Some would say not much money for a car with such capabilities, still regarded twelve years from launch in 2007 as a fantastic car and way ahead of its time.

For classic car buyers, a V8 is more about a muscle car and the Mustang from Ford probably best sums this up. Prior to 2016, Mustangs were only available in left hand drive. Today the Mustang is available in right hand drive with a choice of 2.3 four cylinder Turbo, with 290bhp or 5.0 litre V8 with 450bhp. There is also the option of convertible or a fixed head coupe body styles.

Prices for Mustangs start at around £3,000 for a 1995 convertible with 101,000 miles with a 5.0 litre V8 444bhp. For a right hand drive car prices come in at a loftier £19,995, for a 2.3 Turbo fixed head coupe on a 16 plate and 56,000 miles, that is a lot of car for a shade under £20k. Still it is not a V8, which in todays used market start at £26,000 to buy a convertible with 15,000 miles or fixed head with 26,000 miles.

Yes, they are iconic and good value, whether you have £1,500 or £30,000, your options for a fantastic V8 engine car are there. They might be a throwback to a more carefree, less environmentally friendly time, but for power without the need for revs, they are almost unrivalled, just look out for the dangers of nikasil cylinder linings adding to your maintenance costs.

Lotus Elise

In 1996, Lotus released the Elise. A lightweight fibreglass body over an aluminium frame, it weighed in at just 725kg. Although only powered by an 118bhp Rover K series engine, it raced to 60mph in just 5.8 seconds, fast by 1996 standards! 

The Lotus Elise effectively replaced the much-maligned front wheel drive Elan, which suffered from its launch in 1989. Considered too expensive, the Elan struggled to compete with the Mazda MX-5, which launched in the same year.  Lotus purists never accepted the Elan, as it broke away from the Lotus philosophy of rear wheel drive, unfortunate really, as it was actually a decent car. The MX-5 had rear wheel drive and cost much less than the pricey Lotus and ultimately proved more popular. Following the demise of the Lotus Elan in 1996, this car actually survived for three more years, living out its final days rebadged as a Kia.

Learning some tough lessons, the Elise Series 1 was everything the earlier Elan should have been from launch. There was almost nothing to catch it through twisty roads due to its superb handling, all that from a car hand-built in Norfolk.

Over recent years, Series 1 models have achieved collector status, with values exceeding the prices realised by early Series 2 models. The most highly prized are very early S1 models on an N or P plate, which achieve even greater premiums especially if they have the MMC Aluminium ceramic brakes. The 111S introduced in 1999, which had the addition of a rear wing and upgraded seats, commands a £2,000 premium. Special edition models like the Sport 135, Sport 160, and Sport 190 are rarer still and fetch notable premiums.

The Series 1 ceased production in 2000 replaced by the Series 2. Part funding of the S2 development program came from General Motors, with the car retaining the Rover power plant until the end of 2005. The change to the Toyota engine units began in March 2004 with the range topping 111R model. The last nine months of the Rover engine models carried customer purchase incentives including free hard tops and electric windows. The demise of MG Rover in 2005 signalled the end of Lotus’ use of the K series power unit.

For 2006, the Elise was available in two revised versions the S and the R, both using Toyota engines. The S developed 134bhp and the R was more powerful at 190bhp, this more powerful version commands up to a £3,000 premium over the lower powered unit. With a desire for evermore power, in 2008 the SC version arrived. SC stands for Super Charger, which produced 218bhp; again, these versions command a premium in the used market of an additional £1,000 over an equivalent 190 version.

In 2010, the Elise underwent a notable facelift, including a new front end; with the indicators now incorporated under the headlight cover. Many have referred to this change as the Series 3, although this is not an official factory designation. This was the post-recessionary period, with few models produced leading to them being quite rare today.

The penultimate model released was the Cup or Sport 220 (220bhp). Production commenced in 2014 for the 2015 model year, with current retail prices in the low £40,000 region. Finally, the Cup 250 (250bhp) released in 2017, now retail in the £50,000 price range but as with all later plate models, depreciation in most likely, in contrast to early models, which are now in value ascendancy.

After 23 years of production, what does the future hold for the Elise? Suggestions are that it has run its course and despite its successes and trueness to Colin Chapman’s original “simplify, then add lightness” design philosophy of the 1960’s, the Elise seems likely to face an uncertain future, as more powerful and luxurious sports cars command the current performance market.

Nissan Micra: Thirty-seven years and counting

In 1982 along came a revolutionary new car called the Datsun Micra (K10). It was the replacement for the very popular Datsun Cherry.

The Micra was a small car introduced to compete with the Toyota Starlet and Daihatsu Charade. It launched in the UK a year later than in Japan in 1983. Soon after launch, the Datsun name disappeared in favour of Nissan and interestingly just one Datsun badged Micra K10 remains registered in the UK. It sported a 1.0-litre engine producing just 50hp and unusually for a supermini of that time, had a five-speed manual gearbox or four speed automatic.

A modern car by 1983 standards; it was small and economical, and quickly became a popular selling model in the UK. In part, the economy was due to the Micra having a very low body weight and high gearing, although some of the weight saving was attributed to minimum amounts of insulation; this meant that early cars were rather noisy rides. Competitor cars also launched in 1983 were the Vauxhall Nova, Peugeot 205, Fiat Uno and the second generation Ford Fiesta.

In 1985 and again in 1987 Micra had minor face-lifts and the addition of a 1.2-litre power unit, however visually very little changed and it was almost impossible to see the changes brought about by those two updates.

In 1992, the square look gave way to the much more rounded K11 Micra. The second generation was fitted with a higher power output 1.0-litre (54hp) engine or a 1.3-litre (74hp), and a 1.5-litre diesel variant. It won European car of the year in 1993 with some models even having power steering!

The Micra K11 had two face-lifts in 1996 and again in 1998 by which time all models finally had power steering. Although the overall look had changed very little, the most obvious change was the introduction of body coloured bumpers and door mirrors and updated lights and front grille.

In the early 2000’s The K11 looked outdated and the third generation (K12) launched in 2002. Just two years later came the first facelift; most notable was the change in front indicators, to clear lamps.

In 2007, Nissan introduced more changes with the introduction of the K12C Micra. The most notable change was the revised front Grille that no longer incorporated indicators.

The Fourth Generation (K13) model introduced in 2010 came with huge styling changes. Launched with a choice of petrol engines, 1.2-litre and 1.5-litre, 79hp and 98hp engines, it also received supercharger treatment with a 1.2-litre engine giving 98hp, and a 1.6, 106hp. The fourth generation ran until 2017, with a face-lift in 2014, which again focussed on a revision of the grille and lights and of course, some interior trim changes and upgrades. The Fourth Generation model sold well around the world; however, UK sales were less favourable than previous generations. 

The Fifth generation (K14) launched in 2017. Although it shares the platform from K13 Micra, that is the only similarity. Offered with a 900cc turbo charged 90hp or a 1.0-litre 71hp and a 1.5-litre diesel 90hp unit, it received huge styling changes with an all-new more angular shape and specification improvements. Micra residual values (RVs) have been reasonably stable over the past twelve month as can be seen in the following chart showing RVs expressed as a percentage of original cost new price.

Nissan Micra RV percentage graph

The Micra has transformed some might say, from caterpillar to butterfly. A fitting design to take Micra into its fourth decade of production.

Skoda Octavia vRS sees RVs on the up

The Skoda Octavia vRS has increased in popularity over the last few years, with trade residual values for petrol and diesel versions rising in line with demand.

The following chart shows residual values (RV) for the Octavia vRS since 2016 for both petrol and diesel variants.  The chart shows the RV for both petrol and diesel models increasing in this period. Petrol versions are seeing the biggest rise, from 50% in 2016 to 57% this year. The general rise in popularity of petrol cars is supporting this increase. Between 2017 and 2018 diesel RV’s saw a slight decrease but have since recovered.

Skoda Octavia vRS RV percentage 3 year/60k miles graph

The Octavia vRS models are much sportier in design than other models in the range, with the latest generation having a two-litre turbocharged petrol engine developing 242BHP or two-litre turbocharged diesel version with 180BHP.  Although sporty in design, the Octavia vRS is still very practical, coming in saloon and estate body styles whilst offering large boot spaces and rear passenger legroom.  Popular with company car drivers, the diesel version has a 25% benefit in kind rating, favourable compared to other cars in its segment, together with good fuel economy.  

Overall, the Skoda brand continues to increase in popularity, kicked off by joining the Volkswagen Group in 1991. Produced by the Czech manufacturer since 1996, there have been three generations of the Octavia to date, selling approximately five million units in total. Currently around 40% of all new Skoda cars sold in the UK are Octavia, underlining their continued popularity.

BMW M3 (E30)

The M3 is a high performance variant that sits at the top of BMW’s 3-Series range. Developed and built, at least partially, by BMW’s M division, it has been available as a two and four door saloon, coupe, and convertible, although with the launch of the 4-Series the latter two body styles were renamed M4. Compared with the rest of the range, the M3 has engines that are more powerful, upgraded brakes and suspension, enhanced aerodynamics, special lightweight components and M-specific interior elements. Like most cars, the 3-Series has grown somewhat over its seven generations, and the M3 has followed suit:

 E30F80Variance
Length (mm)4,3454,6713267.5%
Weight (mm)1,1651,62145639.1%
Engine (L)2.33.00.730.4%
ConfigurationInline 4cylInline 6cyl  
Power (hp)197425228115.7%
Power to weight1692629355.0%
     
0-62 (sec)6.94.1-2.8-40.6%
Top Speed (mph)1461742819.2%
     

Fortunately, the M3’s power output has more than kept up with the weight increase, resulting in much improved performance figures over the original car. However, simple performance statistics are not the only important factor with a car of this type, and some enthusiasts bemoan the effect of the weight gain on the driving experience.

The E30 M3 was the first M3, and regarded by many as the ultimate iteration. It was launched in 1985 as a homologation model to enable BMW to race in Group A Touring Cars, which required participating cars to share key components with a road car of which at least 5,000 variants had been produced. It had extended rear wheel arches to allow for the wider tyres required for racing and a raised boot lid to improve aerodynamics. This necessitated a change to the angle of the rear window, which, along with the windscreen, was bonded to the body shell to aid rigidity. These changes contribute to the fact that most body panels are unique to the M3 – sharing only the bonnet, roof and door panels with the rest of the E30 range. The interior was closer to its lesser siblings, with a unique M steering wheel and gear knob, an M3-specific instrument cluster, and a more deeply contoured rear seat.

Unsurprisingly, BMW Motorsport specially built the engine. Designated the S14, it was a 4 cylinder 16v naturally aspirated 2.3L unit producing 200hp, and whilst this does not sound a lot by today’s standards, it was fitted in a car that weighed only 1,200kg. The gearbox was also special – a close ratio 5 speed box with a dogleg first gear – and it transmitted the power to a limited slip differential. Whilst sold in right hand drive markets such as the UK and Japan, it was only ever available in left hand drive. There were very few mechanical changes during the car’s production run – most were in conjunction with special editions:

  • M3 Evolution I – 1987 – 505 units. A revised cylinder head to accommodate motorsport requirements, but still 200hp in road form.
  • M3 Evolution II – 1988 – 501 units. 220hp, larger 7.5×16” wheels, thinner side and rear glass, lighter boot lid, larger rear spoiler and deeper front splitter.
  • M3 Sport Evolution – 1989-90 – 600 units. A homologation special based on the Evo II. Power up to 238hp, due to a capacity increase to almost 2.5L, plus other changes including enlarged vales and a more aggressive camshaft. Fitted with wider front wings, along with adjustable front and rear spoilers, in the interests of weight saving BMW deleted most of the “comfort” options such as power windows and air conditioning.
  • M3 Tour de Corse – 1987 – 40 units (France only). Based on the Evo I, Alpine White or Diamond Black, enhanced equipment levels.
  • M3 Europameister – 1988 – 148 units. Built to celebrate the M3’s dominance of the 1988 Touring Car season, based on a standard M3 but in Macau Blue with Silver nappa leather and fitted with the larger 7.5×16” wheels.
  • M3 Cecotto – 1989 – 480 units. Similar to the M3 Evo II, but with a 215hp version of the S14, which would become the standard engine in the M3 from the last quarter of 1989. Named after the successful BMW racing driver Johnny Cecotto.
  • M3 Roberto Regalia – 1989 – 25 units. A UK-only special, identical to the Cecotto, but renamed to reflect Roberto Ravaglia’s success in the BTCC.

The E30 M3 is one of the cars that has really benefitted from the recent growth in values of cars of this type. A few years ago, it was possible to buy a good example for around £10,000 – today, that same car is probably worth £40-50,000. Condition, originality and provenance are key, with age and mileage largely unimportant, and whilst a typical example will cost around £40-50,000, the better examples are closer to £60-70,000. A particularly rare edition such as the Tour de Course will cost twice that if you can find one.

The E30 M3 is firmly established as a classic icon, and many see it as the purest interpretation of a driver’s car. No assistance systems, a manual gearbox, a light body and a responsive, agile chassis make it a great car to drive – it is civilised enough to be used as an everyday car, but really comes into its own on twisty roads or racetracks. The ideal car for a weekend trip to the Nurburgring or a Spa track day.

Used Electric Cars Re-energised!

Electric vehicles (EVs) have had a rough ride over the decades with little investment in their design, as most major manufacturers considered the product too niche. However, since the emergence and increased prominence of high levels of air pollution and the effects of global warming, the car industry has focused much more resource on developing EVs. This has intensified recently as manufacturers aim to reduce the average CO2 output across their ranges, in line with stricter targets.  

Although the products on offer are much more appealing in both design and functionality now, the list price remains high compared to petrol and diesel equivalents, with the need for government incentives to get consumers to join early adopters.

Historically, convincing consumers that EVs were a viable alternative to the internal combustion engine (ICE) was challenging. Range anxiety, charging times; charging point availability and insufficient knowledge of the technology from both consumers and the dealers have hindered new and used retail sales. Despite low volumes of EVs hitting the used car market, demand has been poor for a number of years. 

This led to very little demand in the used car market for even the smallest volume of stock on offer in the wholesale market, for a number of years.  Some early EVs had a battery lease agreement in addition to the sale price, which meant that when they returned to the market as a used car, dealers had to take the contract on before selling the car to the consumer. Battery leases proved very unpopular with dealers and consumers alike.

Within the last five years, more manufacturers have started producing electric cars across the full spectrum of the market, which has inevitably enhanced product offerings as the technology improved. There has also been increased government and council ICE legislation and tax increases. When combined, the improved offerings and better understanding of the benefits by both the dealer network and customers, has seen an upsurge in demand. At the same time, supply has remained low which has led to a strong improvement in residual values. Over the last few months, demand has increased further, as seen in the chart below, which shows Glass’s Trade value expressed as a percentage of original cost new price. This trend is likely to continue in the near future with little improvement in used supply expected.

RV percentage of cost new by engine fuel type graph 2019

European Union (EU) plans for all new cars by 2022 will be fitted with a speed limiter

In recent news, the EU has provisionally planned that by 2022 all new cars; buses; vans and trucks will be fitted with a speed limiter device. The UK government has also pledged that even if it leaves the EU, it will follow suit. The road safety charity Brake called it a “landmark day” with the EU adding that this technology will avoid thousands of road deaths every year. The European Parliament is still several months off officially approving this technology however many charities have welcomed the initiative.

In 2022, this technology will become mandatory along with automated breaking and electronic data recording. Trucks and other larger vehicles will also be fitted with improved visibility technology to improve the safety of cyclists and other road users.

How will it work? – using the latest GPS and digital mapping technology it will track the vehicle, communicated the local speed limit to the cars dashboard. In addition, sign recognition will be able to assess the speed limit signs whilst you are driving along. The car then uses this information to make sure that it does not exceed the speed limit.  However, the driver can override the system at any time by simply pushing the accelerator, but this override only works for a short period in situations such as overtaking another vehicle. The new technology will work in a similar way to cruise control, where you have a set speed but you can override at any time by pushing the accelerator or the brake. It is said that the driver will be able to turn the system off permanently for the whole journey if they wish, but it will re-set itself once the engine is switched on and off again.   

If used correctly, the speed limiter technology will ensure that drivers never exceed the speed limit. Data on the cars speed will be gathered and fed into a database. In the event of an accident, Police and insurance companies will be able to access the data to find out if the driver was exceeding the legal limit.

More and more safety technology is being included in new cars as manufacturers seek better safety ratings. These safety features including emergency braking, lane departure warning and blind spot monitoring. The motor industry is becoming increasingly safety conscious and working towards a much safer drive, and insurance companies most certainly welcome these features.

While many people welcome this new technology, it does also come with its criticism. The new rules will see all data recorded in your car, almost like having a black box fitted. Some will see this as an invasion of privacy.

Moving to the future – this is a step in the right direction for vehicle technology and moving ever closer to autonomous driving. This is where supporters of the technology see road traffic incidents reducing dramatically. Full autonomous driving is still a long way off, with the technology still evolving.  The EU Parliament will officially agree on speed limiters to be in all new cars from 2022, later on this year.

Ford Focus: Twenty-one years of age already!

Throughout the 1990s, the benchmark C-segment car was the Ford Escort. A popular car with a loyal following that became a British icon.  In 1998, Ford released its successor, the Focus. It did not just raise the bar; it changed everything, redefining what a family car needed to be.

Other manufacturers had to up their game in the C segment. Vauxhall launched their Mk4 Astra in 1998, answering many of the criticisms of the previous generation model.  However, it never managed to match the Focus’ sales success.

In 2002, Ford introduced the Focus RS. With its 2.0 Turbo charged Duratec engine and a limited slip diff, seventy percent of its parts were either unique, revised or uprated. Additionally, it was only available in imperial blue and 2147 of the total 4501 production run found a home in the UK. Already heralded as a future classic; current examples can be found from just shy of £10,000 all the way up to £16,000 for the lowest mileage cars. It is likely, that used values will soon rise above the £19,500 original cost new price for the best examples.

The second generation Focus launched after just 6 years and boosted sales yet further. Ford increased its length, height and width and added new technology, combining to add significant weight. Critics suggested the handling was not as sharp, all agreed though that it was visually better and more modern looking. Above all, it continued to be hugely successful. The body shape line-up was a three door, five door and an estate as well as four door saloon, the latter being a poor seller in the UK, but popular in many countries across Europe. In 2007, we saw the launch of a retractable hard top model, which was popular for the UK market, especially as it had both petrol and diesel engines available.

Ford released the Focus ST range in 2005 suggesting it was the RS replacement; it was powerful coming with a 2.5 litre five-cylinder turbocharged engine, once again adding a performance model to the line-up. However many enthusiasts desired another RS version but Ford did not answer this until 2009 when it heavily revised the ST’s 2.5 engine, giving it an impressive 301 BHP. Currently in the used market examples range from £15,000 to £21,000, not yet considered a modern classic as it is not yet old or rare enough, although there are those who will have already labelled it to be a future classic.

In 2011 Ford introduced the third generation Focus which of course carried new technologies and a more modern look, this new look was overtaken just three years later by the revised open mouth look front grille and slim line headlamps in 2014.

With volumes pushing to around 2 million units sold, the Focus has clearly been a huge success and deservedly got a new RS version in 2016 using an up rated version of the Mustang 2.3 engine. For the first time coming with all-wheel drive. With 345 bhp on tap, the RS is now a car with serious track ability.

Marking the Focus brand’s 20th birthday, in April 2018, Ford unveiled the new European and Asian-market versions. This, the fourth-generation Focus follows the previous generation available with saloon, hatchback and estate bodystyles.

The completely new car features a sportier design, with a simpler interior whilst including technology such as the Sync 3 infotainment system, and the CoPilot360 driver assistance features.

As a first for Focus, a crossover SUV trim level known as the Active is available with the hatchback and estate bodystyles. The car also has a Vignale luxury trim level, following successful launches on other Ford models in Europe including the Ford Fiesta, and Ford S-Max.

Following customer feedback from the previous generation, in this latest version, Ford has improved interior quality, rear legroom, boot space and on-board technology.

With good reason, the Focus is the UK’s second best-selling model. It is Ford’s stable-mate the Fiesta that is the number one selling model. Therefore, Ford clearly have a winning formula for these two ranges.

Every month at auction, Focus models account for up to 5000 units across all versions, fuel types and ages. That is up to 250-used Focus available to the Trade every working day!

Mazda RX-8: a review

The Mazda RX-8 sports car had its first public display at the North American International motor show in 2001. It went into production the following year, and ran until 2012. Mazda withdrew new sales of the RX-8 from Europe in 2010 as it failed to meet Euro 5 emission standards.

The RX-8 stands out from the crowd with its rotary Wankel engine. This engine works by converting pressure into a rotating motion and allowed the car to produce between 190 and 238 hp from its modest 1.3cc engine.

Rotary engines are barrel-shaped internal combustion engines (ICE). They have rounded triangular rotors that spin around a shaft. This action pumps fuel and air into the spaces between the rotor and interior walls where they ignite. The rapid explosion turns the rotors, generating the power. The engine works in the same way as a normal ICE engine with far fewer parts. This makes the engine much smaller and lighter.

The rotary engine is favoured in small aircrafts and motorbikes due its lighter weight and compact nature. The rotary engine used in the Mazda RX-8 was the last of its kind. No other manufacturer currently uses this technology.

Advantages:

  • High power to weight ratio compared to normal ICE
  • Able to reach higher revolutions per minute – a characteristic loved by car enthusiasts
  • Operates with almost no vibration delivering a smoother ride
  • Cheaper to produce as the engine contains fewer parts

Disadvantages:

  • Poor fuel economy
  • High emissions as the engine does not completely burn the fuel-air mixture


Since January 2018, the retail market shows steady values. The Mazda RX-8 continues to offer affordable sports car looks without the sports car price tag. Over the last 12 months, Glass’s data shows the average sold price in the retail market was £2,969.

There have been suggestions that the rotary engine will make a return. Journalists continue to speculate that Mazda will combine this technology with an electric motor, with the Wankel engine working as a range extender. However, Mazda continues to remain tight-lipped about this. There is still a possibility that we will see this interesting engine make a return to UK roads in years to come.

Jeep Wrangler: a sensible choice?

Jeep Wrangler: a sensible choice?
Although not a direct descendant of the famous World War II Willys Jeep, so synonymous with classic war films, the Jeep Wrangler’s design was (and still is) heavily influenced by it. Despite an increasingly crowded SUV market, its rugged, no compromise looks continue to make it stand out and thrive.

Running until 1986, the Jeep CJ models preceded the Wrangler. They were more utilitarian and stripped down, in a similar vein to the original military Jeep. Indeed, CJ stands for Civilian Jeep. By the 1970s and 1980s, the CJ-7 became popular as a recreational car, not just as an off-road work horse, so needed better road manners, stability and comfort.

Launched in Chicago, with production running from 1986 to 1995, the Jeep Wrangler (model YJ) bore a strong resemblance to the CJ-7, with a new design incorporating:

  • Square headlights
  • A wider stance
  • Reduced ground clearance
  • Increased comfort
  • Improved safety and handling

In 1996, release of the second generation (TJ) reverted to round headlamps and used coil springs to improve on road comfort. Other major changes included the addition of a long wheelbase and two extra doors from 2004. Production of the TJ ceased in 2006.

The third generation (JK) Wrangler entered production in 2006 and ran until 2018. Developed under Daimler Chrysler this was a “bottom up” new design, including features that were “standard” on road cars. The four door long wheelbase models outsold the two-door version.

The latest completely new generation (JL) launched in 2018 with a clear objective to retain the iconic Jeep look while remaining true to itself. The JL retains legendary off-road capabilities and introduces advanced technology for the first time. The result is the most capable Wrangler ever, courtesy of unmatched technical features, mated to efficient engines and smooth gearboxes.

In the UK, sales remain small but steady at approximately 500 units a year for the last 10 years. They have become somewhat of a cult car, and with its retro styling, a hit with the more fashion conscious looking for some originality. This combination along with the relatively small numbers available to buy in the second hand market keep residual values high compared to similar market categories.

Jeep RV percentage of cost new comparison graph

The chart above shows the Jeep Wrangler’s residual value performance throughout the different ages, from one to 10 year olds. It is clear to see that the Wrangler’s rate of depreciation is favourable compared to similar rivals.

Will the UK automotive sector weather the perfect storm of WLTP and Brexit?

In line with Autovista Group’s downside forecast for the year, new car registrations fell by 6.8% in the UK in 2018. The seasonally-adjusted annualised rate (SAAR) of new car registrations weakened again in December suggesting that there are still WLTP-induced supply constraints and also that the uncertainty surrounding Brexit is hurting consumer confidence and in turn new car demand. With the pressure on new car demand and residual values because of the relentless uncertainty surrounding Brexit, how will the UK automotive sector weather this perfect storm?

The only certainty in the UK as far as Brexit is concerned is uncertainty and this has been amplified even further by the UK Parliament’s rejection of the Government’s Brexit deal on Tuesday evening (15 January), albeit followed by a vote of confidence in the UK Government on Wednesday evening (16 January). Nevertheless, Autovista Group has developed a view on the outlook for new car demand and residual values in the UK.

New car registrations were already down by 6.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2018 but were buoyed by buying activity in July and August prior to the implementation of WLTP. Consequently, new car demand recovered to a decline of only 4.2% in the first eight months of 2018. However, the volume of registrations in September was at its lowest level since 2011 and with little over 450,000 new cars registered in the final quarter, this was the worst Q4 since 2012.

New car registrations SAAR graph January 2012 - December 2018
Source: Autovista Group based on SMMT data

Autovista Group’s new car market forecast for 2019

It is not possible to quantify the exact volume of new car registrations that were lost in 2018 because of WLTP and, similarly, the volume that was lost due to an underlying downturn in demand. We estimate that up to 100,000 new car registrations were lost between September and December 2018 because of the combination of these issues. In December alone for example, more than 18,000 fewer cars were registered than in the Autovista base case forecast. Given this, some volume was added in to our forecast for 2019 but this did not compensate for the reduction to the base case, downside and upside forecasts because of the indication that demand is broadly weakening on the back of rising inflation and weakening consumer confidence.

Rising inflation and weakening consumer confidence graph 2019
Source: OECD

The base case forecast calls for a further contraction of the new car market in 2019, albeit of just 0.6%. However, even this broadly assumes that the UK’s departure from the European Union will maintain free trade in a transitional phase and that interest rates and inflation will not rise and that pound sterling will not devalue further. In an upside scenario, which assumes ongoing free trade through a customs union and stable inflation and interest rates but a strengthening of the UK currency and healthier economic growth too, the new car market could even expand by up to 4%. On the downside, assuming the UK leaves the EU with ‘no deal’ and that WTO trading rules come into effect, consumer confidence and the economy weaken and interest rates and inflation rise, new car registrations could fall by up to 10%.

UK new car sales outlook graph 2012-2020
Source: Autovista Group/SMMT

These volume forecasts may sound high given the current state of Brexit flux but it is worth reiterating that a high volume of registrations were deferred from 2018 to 2019 because of the supply issues following the implementation of WLTP.

Used car market and residual value outlook

Based on the latest used car market data available, Autovista Group estimates that the volume of used car transactions fell by 2% in 2018. Demand for used cars was therefore far more resilient than for new cars. Looking ahead, the performance of the used car market and residual values will be dictated by the new car market as consumers may opt for a used car more than a new car given the current climate. In fact, the worse the news for the new car market, the better the expectation for the used car market and in turn residual values. As it currently stands, our residual value outlook calls for stability in residual values in the 12 month/20,000km scenario in 2019. In the 36 month/60,000km scenario, we forecast that values will fall by 1% in 2019 but these assumptions will naturally change if the trend of consumers opting more for used cars than new materialises.

The upshot is that the only certainty for the UK automotive sector continues to be uncertainty but the used car market and residual values will definitely weather the raging perfect storm better than the new car market.