Article Type: Insight

New Car Market Update March 2021

New car registrations in March showed the first green shoots of growth since August 2020, with 29,280 more units registered compared to the same month last year. This represents an increase of 11.5% according to figures published by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

However, March is also the anniversary of the first full lockdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, so comparisons with 2020 figures will fluctuate wildly throughout the year. If compared to March 2019’s pre-pandemic normal market, March 2021 registrations fell 38%.

March 2021 UK new car registrations graph

                                                                        Data courtesy of SMMT

The March on March growth figure was not uniform across all sectors. While Fleet volume grew 28.7% or 33,784 units and Business was up 18.6% or 902 units, sales to private consumers fell 4.1% or 5,406. In March 2020, the Fleet and Business sectors suffered larger falls in registrations than retail, so had a lower base point to grow from. Besides, many lease contract extensions have expired, hence an uptick in March registration activity, as company cars are often ordered without any physical viewing. Private consumers are more likely to purchase a vehicle after visiting dealerships first, which is why the April 12 reopening of non-essential retail is so important for the new and used car markets.

Despite March’s rise in registrations, the new car market dropped by 58,032 cars or 12% in quarter one, with sales to private consumers affected most as shown in the chart below.

Sector split YTD graph March 2021

                                                                                   Data courtesy of SMMT                                              

The shift to alternative fuelled cars is continuing at pace, with plug-ins making record volume. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) took a combined market share of 13.9%, up from 7.3% last year, as the choice available to customers continues to grow.  Registrations of BEVs increased by 88.2% to 22,003 units, while PHEVs rose by 152.2% to 17,330. Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) also rose 42.0% to reach 21,599 registrations.

For this positive trend to continue, the government needs to maintain customer incentives for new cleaner technologies, whilst planning and implementing improved infrastructure to cope with the increasing registrations.

As we look ahead to the second quarter, it is logical that the new car market will catch back some of the ground lost in Q1, as the market was effectively closed in April and May last year due to Lockdown-1, with only just over 24,400 cars registered in the two months combined.

Glass’s One Minute Market Update

New car registrations increased by 11.5% in March according to figures released by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).  Sales to private individuals fell 4.1% with ‘click and collect’ hampering sales rate. Fleet and business registrations more than made up for that shortfall, increasing 28.7% and 16.6% respectively, with physical transactions less common in these sales channels, so the lockdown restrictions had less impact.

Although an 11.5% increase to 283,964 registrations is a positive result in the current climate, it is significantly below 2019’s registration tally of 458,054, and for context, 2019’s total was the lowest for five years.

There was a marked improvement in wholesale trading conditions in the latter half of March, as dealers began filling gaps on forecourts in preparation for the reopening of sites to physical customers on 12 April. Overall conversion rates returned towards seasonal norms and hammer prices began rising. The percentage of cars selling on the first time of asking was 82.7% which is up 6.2 percentage points from February but still over 6 points behind March last year.

Glass’s expects a very buoyant period of retail activity from 12 April, with wholesale trading following a similar pattern as dealers replenish stock more regularly. Somewhat unexpectedly, one of the national auction groups has announced the return of some physical auctions from 12 April, with buyers welcomed back into auction halls, but adhering to social distancing measures. It will be interesting to see how the other national auction companies respond or whether they will remain on their current course of online-only sales programs.   

New Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Market Update – March 2021

On the face of it, an impressive 85.5% increase in light commercial vehicle registrations in March 2021 reflects a market that saw its largest ever rise since the introduction of the two plate system in 1999. This figure masks a market that is 10.9% down on the 2015-2019 average and reflects the struggles this industry has had during the pandemic. Delayed pipeline orders and cash-rich businesses replacing vehicles at the end of the tax year boosted registrations in March, with all sectors enjoying large increases. A year-to-date total of 97,356 registrations is a rise of 43.4% overall versus 2020.

SMMT data indicates that the 56,122 March registration total is 25,875 units more than in March 2020, the first month of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Breaking down the results reveals that there were increases for all sectors. Demand for vans under 2.0 tonnes rose by 96.1% whilst registrations in the between 2.0-2.5 tonne and 2.5-3.5 tonne sector improved by 31.5% and 101.0% respectively. The Pickup sector also recorded an 85.7% increase.

The Ford Transit Custom resumed its number one position, outselling its big brother, the Ford Transit in second spot by more than two-to-one. Ford managed to place four of its product ranges in the top ten for the second month running.  In addition to the Ford Transit Custom and the Ford Transit, the Ford Ranger was fourth and the Ford Transit Connect was eighth. The registration top ten also saw Toyota’s Hilux pick-up feature in ninth position.

Top five LCV registrations

Top five LCV reg. March 2021

The effect the pandemic has had on the automotive industry over the last twelve months cannot be underestimated. Further lockdowns in many European countries continue to stymie vehicle production and the wider supply chain and does little to encourage business confidence.

In the UK, those who rely on incentives as essential to making battery electric vehicles affordable have derided the decision to reduce the Plug-in Van and Truck Grant. By the end of 2022, most van manufacturers will be able to offer a battery-electric vehicle (BEV). Instead of making BEVs an attractive and affordable proposition to UK businesses, the latest grant reductions place the country even further behind other markets who are at this time, increasing their subsidies. The eligibility change has already wiped out all-bar-one PHEV from the approved list, whilst the grant reduction is likely to affect the supply of BEVs to the UK. This at a time when commercial vehicle operators were beginning to show confidence and a desire to buy electric vehicles.

March used Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) overview

  • LCV used market resilient in March
  • Minibus values strengthen as children return to school
  • Slowly increasing stock availability
  • Versatile medium-sized panel vans

March has seen the used market in resilient form overall, driven mainly by the expanding home shopping market and the construction industry. Prices have remained strong and first-time conversion rates high for anything that is retail ready.

The minibus sector has struggled badly during the pandemic due to COVID restrictions, but as children return to schools around the country, there has unsurprisingly been an increase in demand. This demand has predominantly come from private sector operators fulfilling education authority contracts, rather than the schools themselves.

Buyers are actively avoiding damaged stock on the open market, whilst prices have continued to hold strong over the month. A steady trickle of new stock into the used market has seen buyers continue to haggle over the best examples, with sub-two-year-old stock attracting additional interest from franchised dealer groups running low on new stock. With less availability in this age bracket in March, prices increased across all sectors. There is more duplication available at auction currently as some utility companies start to de-fleet older stock.

In March less than 50% of all sales were in the zero to 4-year-old age bracket, whilst more vehicles in the over six-year-old age bracket were sold than in February and at higher prices. Medium-sized vans again proved the most versatile and popular overall during March with 37.7% of all sales. Small vans followed with 26.7% and large vans were third (26.0%).

With the SMMT reporting a strong March new plate registration month, there will be vehicle de-fleets that find their way into the wholesale market over the next weeks and months. This should slowly start to ease supply and demand issues, although prices look set to remain high for the best stock well into the second half of 2021.

With global vaccinations on the increase, the easing of lockdown measures has seen some of the smaller auctions return to physical sales. Others who have benefitted from operating solely as an online business during the pandemic have decided to continue this way, with a view to reassessing the situation later in the year.

March in detail

Glass’s auction data shows the overall number of vehicle sales in March increased by 12.8% versus February 2021, whilst first-time conversion rates increased by 3.0% to 87.2%.

Average sales prices paid in March increased slightly by 0.86% versus February and are now a third higher than the same point last year. The average age of sold stock increased from 69.0 months in February to 70.8 months in March and was 3.8 months younger than the same point last year.

Average mileages exceeded 80,000 miles for the first time in twelve months, increasing from 79,936 miles in February to 86,603 miles in March. This mileage was 6,073 miles higher than in March 2020.

Glass’s continues to monitor the LCV market closely and has an open dialogue with auction houses, manufacturers, leasing and rental companies, independent traders and dealers as well as the main industry bodies. This information, combined with the wealth of knowledge in our CV team ensures Glass’s valuations remain relevant in the market place.

Originally written for Commercial Fleet

Spain introduces MOVES III incentive scheme

Spain introduced the new MOVES III incentive scheme for electrically-chargeable vehicles (EVs) on 10 April, which includes hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (FCHVs) for the first time.

All FCHVs, as well as battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) that cost less than €45,000 (excluding VAT), are eligible, with the price ceiling rising to €53,000 for vehicles with eight or nine seats. Used EVs that are less than nine months old are also eligible.

It is worth noting that across Spain and the major European markets, the residual-value (RV) disadvantage of BEVs compared to petrol cars has widened since March 2020. The greatest divergence has occurred in Germany, where the gap has widened by just under four percentage points (pp) and stood at 10 pp in January 2021. The divergence accelerated notably following the introduction of enhanced incentives on 1 July 2020.

Cautionary tale

This is a cautionary tale for Spain as it rolls out this new scheme. All governments should look into providing incentives to encourage used-BEV ownership, but these do not need to be straightforward purchase incentives. Lower energy costs for charging BEVs and visible expansion of the charging network would also be powerful signals.

‘The biggest potential risk for pressure on RVs stems from the purchase incentives for EVs. A positive and moderating effect comes from the longer-term ownership tax reduction and a lack of company-car tax benefit,’ commented Ana Azofra, head of valuations and insights at Autovista Group in Spain.

As detailed in the table below, private buyers of EVs with an electric range of at least 90 km are entitled to a subsidy of €4,500 in Spain, which is reduced to €2,500 for EVs with a range of 30 to 90 km.

MOVES1

Source: IDAE

For small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), the incentives amount to €2,900 for EVs with an electric range of at least 90 km, reducing to €1,700 with a range of 30 to 90 km. For large companies, the incentives are €2,200 for EVs with an electric range of at least 90 km and €1,600 with a range of 30 to 90 km.

MOVES2

Source: IDAE

The scheme runs until the end of 2023, with an initial budget of €400 million, rising to €800 million dependent on its success. This is significantly higher than the original funding allocation of €100 million for the MOVES II scheme that came into effect in June 2020, which the Spanish government extended by €20 million early in March.

‘We have chosen to start with those actions that families, SMEs, the self-employed and, ultimately, the entire fabric of the country can benefit from,’ explained Teresa Ribera, vice president of Spain and minister for the ecological transition and the demographic challenge, in the presentation of the MOVES III plan.

‘It is crucial to keep pace with the actions promoting the value chain of the automotive sector in our country, with the creation of employment and new business models,’ Ribera added.

Unlikely improvement

The new incentives are slightly higher for private buyers but lower for companies. However, the benefits are much greater if a used vehicle over seven years of age is traded in for scrappage. For private buyers, the incentive increases up to €7,000, and up to €4,000 for SMEs and €3,000 for large companies.

‘MOVES III constitutes the most ambitious line of support for electric mobility that our country has proposed and will allow and contribute to the economic reactivation in the short term, accompanying the necessary transformation of the industrial model of our country with the economic and environmental objectives,’ Ribera said.

Nevertheless, the new scheme is unlikely to significantly improve the fortunes of Spain’s new-car market. Registrations grew 128% in March compared with a year ago, but the comparison is distorted by the pandemic. Spanish dealerships closed from 14 March 2020. A more realistic comparison with March 2019 shows the new-car market contracting by 30%. Sales in the first quarter dropped 14.9% against last year’s figures, and were 41.3% down on figures from two years ago.

EV uptake should increase, especially among private buyers, but without an improvement in consumer confidence, and a return of tourism, the Spanish market will continue to struggle overall. Autovista Group forecasts that demand will recover from the 32% loss in 2020, albeit by only 6% to about 900,000 units in 2021.

German registrations start slow recovery in March

New-car registrations in Germany increased 35.9% in March, according to the latest figures from the Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (KBA).

The figure was inflated due to the country’s first COVID-19 lockdown closing dealerships from mid-March in the previous year. However, at that time, registrations performed well compared to other countries. While Spain, France and Italy posted losses of 69.3%, 72.2% and 85.4%, respectively, Germany only saw a decline of 37.7%.

At the end of the first quarter, new registrations totalled 656,452 units, down 6.4% compared to the first three months of last year. This is despite dealerships being closed. The country’s market also suffered due to a VAT increase, with taxes rising from 16% to 19% at the beginning of the year. Autovista Group estimates that around 40,000 registrations were pulled forward into December last year as a result.

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Brand increases

All domestic brands showed positive growth in March 2021, the strongest being Smart with a 304.4% increase. Double-digit increases were recorded by Opel (75.1%), Mini (58%), Porsche (55%), Volkswagen Passenger Cars (VW) (39.1%), Mercedes (36.7%), Audi (17.6%) and BMW (17%). VW claimed the largest share of new registrations, taking 19.3% of the market.

Alfa Romeo showed the most significant increase among the imported brands, up by 114.6%. Fellow Stellantis stablemate Peugeot saw sales grow 78.4% while Tesla enjoyed a 63.6% boost. However, Honda (-33.3%), Mitsubishi (-30%) and Jaguar (-10%) were among those to see sales decline in the month.

Electric closes the gap

In terms of fuel type, the market for battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) achieved a significant increase of 191.4%, with a market share of 10.3%. With German car brands such as VW and BMW increasing their focus on electrification, there now seems to be an appetite for the technology amongst buyers. Plug-in hybrid (PHEV) models achieved a 12.2% market share, with sales increasing 277.5% in the month.

The swing to electric drives is more evident when internal combustion engines (ICE) sales are considered. New registrations of passenger cars with petrol engines increased by 7.1%. However, the market share was just 39.4%. The sale of diesel models continued to decline, with 5% fewer in March 2021 for a 22.1% market share. For the second successive month, diesel sales were outpaced by those of hybrids. When including standard and PHEV models, this powertrain type took 27.8% of the market.

The figures, therefore, show that 38.1% of registrations in Germany during the last month were non-ICE models. This is just 1.3% below the market share of petrol in March. It may not be long until sales of these vehicles outpace those of more traditional powertrains.

Germany extended its lockdown period to 18 April following a spike in infection cases. However, the Federation of Motor Trades and Repairs (ZDK) argued that vehicle dealers should be allowed to reopen fully. The group’s main argument is that while a hairdresser, with a floor space of 10m2, is allowed to have one customer, car showrooms with a floor space of 500m2 cannot open.

European registration rates on slow road to recovery

Three big European markets saw tremendous new-car registration growth in March 2021. However, as Autovista Group Daily Brief editor Phil Curry explains, not all is as it seems.

While COVID-19 is still impacting the automotive market, March registration figures from France, Spain and Italy would give the casual observer cause for optimism. However, the period with which they are compared – March 2020 – was one of the worst for new-car sales because of the global pandemic. It marked the beginning of a prolonged period of severe declines for the automotive sector. April and May will also be subject to distorted 2020 comparisons as the pandemic’s economic impact unfolded.

March registrations in France grew 191.7% year-on-year, while in Spain, the growth was 128%, and Italy saw an increase of 497.2%. However, in 2020 these markets saw declines of 72%, 69% and 85.4%, respectively as lockdowns and other pandemic measures were implemented.

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March 2020 saw the beginning of a three-month lockdown in these countries, with Italy hardest hit as infection rates increased. The country closed its dealerships on 12 March, with France and Spain shutting up shop on 14 March. Sales had slowed before this period as businesses and consumers came to terms with the disruption caused by the ‘new’ virus.

COVID-19 continues to cause problems and the automotive industry is working hard to adjust. Carmakers have strengthened their online-buying channels, while governments introduced green-vehicle incentives, although most of these have now been exhausted or concluded. Businesses are also using this quieter time to update their fleets, which has helped boost sales in some markets.

Quarterly recovery

In France, 182,774 passenger cars were registered last month, compared to 62,668 in 2020, according to data from the CCFA. But to get a true sense of the market’s state, a comparison to the last non-COVID affected period is needed. Looking at the latest figures against March 2019, the French market is 19% down.  

Over the year so far, sales are up 21% compared to the first quarter of 2020. March’s figures have helped turn around a 14% deficit from the first two months of 2021, although the 441,791 registrations are still well below 2019’s three-month level of 553,335.

During Q1 2021, and after a mixed start to the year, sales of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) in France have picked up. From January to March, 14% of new-car registrations were plug-in capable, against 11.2% over the whole of last year. These numbers may continue to build until July when the French government will reduce its plug-in grant by €1,000.

‘In March alone, [penetration] even reached 15%, which is excellent news,’ said Cécile Goubet, general delegate of Avere-France. ’The enthusiasm is explained by the number of new models, the communication of manufacturers on the benefits of electric, and the purchasing aid which currently remains high,’ she added.

France announced the closure of non-essential retail stores last month in an effort to fight rising COVID-19 infection rates. However, dealerships are allowed to remain open, albeit for visits by appointment only.

Lack of tourism

Spanish industry body ANFAC reported growth of 128%. This meant 85,819 units were added to the country’s roads, compared to just 37,644 in March last year. However, this is a 30% decrease on the same period in 2019. Sales in the first quarter dropped 15% against last-year’s figures, and are 41.3% down on figures from two years ago.

Across the various sector channels, the market suffered from an absence of tourism at Easter. This is a period where rental firms renew their fleets, offering newer vehicles for tourists. Mobility restrictions caused this market to fall 38.6% compared to March 2019, registering the most significant decrease in sales of any sector.

‘The comparison of sales for the first quarter of 2021 with respect to the same period of 2019 reveals that the COVID-19 recovery is far from reaching the automotive sector in Spain,’ explained Noemi Navas, communication director of ANFAC. ‘With an accumulated fall in the quarter of more than 40%, no short-term sign is detected that suggests that this reduction in the market will be offset shortly. 

‘The recovery of the automotive industry is closely linked to that of tourism and consumer confidence. These indicators largely depend on the rate of vaccination and the general economic situation. It is worth noting that in Spain the registration tax was de facto raised in January and that the RENOVE plan was cancelled without spending the entire budget. We will have to wait at least for the second semester to see improvement data.’

Unfair comparisons

Meanwhile, Italy recorded a staggering rise against last year. It was the first and hardest hit market by COVID-19 in March 2020. The 497.2% increase equates to 169,684 units, against just 28,415 in the third month of last year. In the first quarter of 2021, sales were up 28.7% in comparison to ‘the worst three-month period ever’ according to industry body ANFIA.

‘After the negative performances of January (-14%) and February (-12.3%), in March the car market shows a positive sign. However, this is distorted by the comparison with a month that was without precedent in terms of negative performance, the result of the shock generated by the outbreak of the health emergency in our country,’ said Paolo Scudieri, president of ANFIA.

Therefore, since it is a completely unequal comparison, it makes more sense to compare this third month of 2021 with March 2019. Here, registrations are down by 12.7%, a sign that the pandemic’s effects are still impacting the sector’s recovery. It is hampered further by an uncertain economic situation and a crisis in the supply of certain raw materials that is persisting.’

Overall outlook

Figures for April and May will also likely be skewed as markets across Europe claw back sales lost in a period of extreme measures from 2020. It will now become essential to compare figures from this year to those from 2019 to chart how the industry is recovering. While sales are projected to improve year-on-year in 2021, as is demonstrated in the Spanish market, other factors, such as a lack of tourism and therefore a drop in rental renewals, can continue to hurt the industry throughout the year.

Much depends now on vaccination efforts. COVID-19 infections are rising at different rates across the continent. Still, markets that can increase the number of vaccinations, reopen and achieve some form of normality will recover more quickly. It will not be until 2022 that vehicle registrations can genuinely look to rebound.

Changing Convertible Trends

As the days get longer and warmer and the garden furniture is dusted down, many people are drawn to the idea of owning a convertible to achieve that wind in the hair driving experience. However, Is the draw as strong as ever for these cars that are often impractical, expensive but rare and stylish?

During the 1990s, manufacturers realised the potential in this profitable segment after the success of the Mazda MX-5. They set about designing new models to increase their ranges, expanding not just to the traditional two-seater roadster but also to four-seat coupe versions of their popular saloon and hatchback models. Then came the advent of the folding “tin-top” roof to make the Convertible an all-year-round proposition.

However, did the extensive choice of Convertibles grow so large that the exclusivity factor diminished, and have consumers turned to other segments that have become more fashionable?

Up until the year 2000, the number of Convertibles registered new each year was around 2% of the whole market, according to data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). The peak year was 2004 where Cabriolet and Convertible registrations reached 116,500, equating to 4.6% of the new car market. The numbers have dropped to less than 2% for the last 5 years running and were only 1.2% in Coronavirus hit 2020.

What about the choice during the last twenty years? The chart below shows the number of ranges available by year.

Convertible ranges registered graph 1998-2020

The peak in the number of different ranges was in 2007. This has dwindled in recent years as models such as the Mercedes SLK/SLC, Volkswagen Golf and Beetle and Fiat’s 124 disappear. Many manufacturers no longer offer a convertible in their range.

Manufacturers are reacting to the fall in consumer demand for convertible versions of two-seater sports and small cars, as demand switches to other more popular body styles. There is no need to look beyond the SUV/Crossover segment to see where customer demand has shifted over time.

In 1998 there were 35 different SUV models available according to data gathered by Glass’s, and they fell into two distinct types. There was the large and expensive end of the market like the Land Rover Range Rover and Toyota Land Cruiser, or more utilitarian models from Isuzu, Mitsubishi and Daihatsu.

With the growing popularity in this segment, more manufacturers were taking note. Honda released the smaller CR-V and HR-V in the UK to rival the RAV4 from Toyota, and so the smaller SUV started to become more recognised on UK roads. They were often cheaper, but still retained the high driving position and four-wheel drive.

It soon became apparent that these cars were not often taken off-road, so new models launched featuring two-wheel drive, bringing costs down whilst also lowering CO2 emissions. The Nissan Qashqai typified this new wave of Crossovers, and by 2010 the number of SUV/Crossover models available had jumped to 60.

Mainstream manufacturers continue to increase offerings as the lines between body types blur more and more, and so we saw at least 100 different models available in 2020. Even sports car manufacturers recognize the opportunity, with Porsche launching the Cayenne in 2003, and in later years Maserati, Lamborghini and Aston Martin have joined the party along with Bentley and Rolls Royce.

As expected market share has grown too, otherwise manufacturers would not continue to grow their stable of SUV/Crossovers, as can be seen in the chart below where market share has grown from 4% to 35% of the UK market in 2020.

SUV/Crossover UK market share graph 1998-2020

With no likelihood of these trends ending soon, the return of the convertible to niche status seems inevitable, while the Crossover continues to sweep all rivals aside. That is not to say they have lost their appeal, in 2020 Glass’s average residual value for Convertibles rose significantly due to an uptick in demand as shown in the chart below. This will have been helped by extremely good weather, but also possibly due to people treating themselves to something as the global COVID-19 pandemic affected other areas considered a luxury, like overseas holidays.    

Average RV% 3 yr old convertible/cabriolet graph 2020 vs 2019

Touring Caravan Market Update April 2021

With key holiday periods of the 2021 season fast approaching, the UK, unfortunately, finds itself experiencing another national lockdown, which began on 4 January.  There is light at the end of the tunnel, however, following the announcement of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s roadmap to ease restrictions in England, with Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland developing similar plans.

Crucially, this allows non-essential retail, including dealerships, to reopen from 5 April in Scotland on an appointment-only basis, 12 April for England and possibly Wales, and non-essential click and collect services can resume in Northern Ireland.  Despite these positive developments, with Easter being early this year, the first key holiday period will already be lost. However, the season is looking far more positive than it did this time last year, as the country went into its first national lockdown on 23 March.

There is optimism among the majority of dealers that 2021 will be a strong season, with staycation remaining high on the agenda, and newcomers continuing to enter the market. However, there is a degree of uncertainty as overseas travel becomes a more viable option again, although at the time of writing there are reports of a third wave emerging in some popular European holiday destinations, which could curtail overseas travel again. 

Activity in the new market

Despite dealership showrooms being closed throughout the last quarter, feedback has generally been positive, with plenty of online and telephone enquiries. Although January and the first half of February were quiet in terms of actual sales, activity is gathering momentum. Indeed, some dealers are already selling through their 2021 allocated stock, with certain models already sold out.

The main issue facing dealers continues to be stock shortages, with delays in parts supply hindering production.  With delivery lead times pushing into the three-month horizon, concern at dealers is mounting.

 Market Statistics December 2020 vs 2019

●            Production of units intended for UK distribution was 14.6% down.

●            Moving annual total [MAT] was 50.9% down.

●            Factory invoiced sales saw a downturn of 13.2%.

●            Moving annual total [MAT] for factory invoiced sales was 45. 8% down.

Touring caravan home production graph December 2020 vs 2019
Touring caravan factory invoiced sales graph December 2020 vs 2019

Key Points

●            Demand is ahead of last year across the board.

●            Discounts are equally level or down on last year.

●            The majority of dealers have less stock than last year.

Activity in the used market

 As with the new market, enquiry levels for used units are encouraging, with continued interest. However, the main concern continues to be a lack of used stock, and some dealers would have otherwise been very optimistic for a particularly strong season, had an adequate stock level been available. Some retailers have resorted to taking in poorer quality caravans than usual and spending extra time and money prepping them to retail standard, to fill gaps in forecourt stock.

Increased demand combined with a rise in first-time buyers without a part exchange, has led to the vast majority of dealers having far less stock. Dealers report levels typically 50% behind last year, falling significantly short of demand. This has been reflected in recent exceptionally strong auction activity.

Summary

Although the outlook is positive overall, stock shortages in both the new and used markets continue to hinder sales. However, dealers will be eager for lockdown restrictions to ease so they can get back to a degree of normality. Whilst challenges remain, overall there is much to look forward to. 

April Edition

For this edition, taking into account continued stock shortages and the peak season coinciding with lockdown easing, values have been increased across the board, except where trade feedback or evidence from the market has suggested further adjustments where necessary. 

Launch Report: Volkswagen Caddy – improved engines and specifications

The Volkswagen (VW) Caddy has been redesigned from the ground up, with improved safety, space, engines, and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS). The fit and finish, digital cockpit, and general specification improvements make the model feel more like a VW passenger car. The driving dynamics are very good too, with outstanding roadholding and vehicle stability, as well as a good level of comfort.

Both the Caddy and the Caddy Maxi have grown in length and wheelbase, providing more cargo space. As the model is bigger, the maximum payload is slightly lower, but is the highest among key competitors. However, the loading volume of the Caddy is slightly below average, with the cargo space allowing for just one Euro pallet (only the long-wheelbase Maxi version accommodates two), while most competitors take two in standard form.

The new model hosts a comprehensive offer of assistance systems, including trailer-assist, which is a unique selling point in the segment. The modern interior and digital cockpit are advantageous for dual-use customers, i.e. drivers that use the vehicle for both commercial and private purposes.

The latest Euro 6 diesel engines benefit from huge emissions reductions and better fuel economy, supported by the new double SCR (selective catalytic-reduction) system. The 102-horsepower 2.0TDI has the lowest fuel consumption and CO2 emissions among its key rivals. There is not a fully-electric version of the new Caddy available, unlike small PSA Group and Renault vans. However, a plug-in hybrid (PHEV) version is planned for 2022. A compressed natural gas (CNG) version is already available in France, and will be available to order in Spain from December 2021.

The Caddy has a lower entry list price than its predecessor, but pricing is generally higher than those of other mainstream competitors. However, the fuel savings and reduced CO2 emissions will improve running costs and should entice new buyers. Furthermore, the development of working-from-home, and closures of non-essential retail, have led to an increase in home deliveries, benefiting demand for vans, and their residual values (RVs).

Click here or on the image below to read Autovista Group’s benchmarking of the VW Caddy in France, Germany, Spain and the UK. The interactive launch report presents new prices, forecast RVs and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis.

Caddy

Flicking the switch – is it time to go all EV?

Making the Switch

With the ban on the sale of new diesel and petrol light commercial vehicles (LCVs) coming into force in 2030, there has never been a more challenging or exciting time to be involved in the automotive industry.

From the billions of pounds spent by manufacturers on the research and development of new products, to an improving charging infrastructure and battery manufacturing, the electric revolution is sparking into life. In this article, Glass’s Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor, Andy Picton, takes a look at the challenges, opportunities and innovations surrounding the switch to electric vehicles (EVs).

Homework

Vehicle cost, availability, range, charging times, long-term reliability and infrastructure requirements are just some of the factors that need to be addressed. On top of this is getting the ‘buy-in’ from the vehicle drivers. Every operator will have different criteria to fulfil and different limiting circumstances to work within. Negative stories always spread more quickly than good news stories, so its vital drivers have confidence in the products and their capabilities.

Infrastructure

Unfortunately, the UK is not blessed with excess space on which to develop state of the art stand-alone charging hubs, and many of our business premises and associated land need additional permissions before electrical upgrades can even commence. Even if space and permissions are available, a fleet establishing a charging hub will find that it is not a cheap process. Dependent on where the power supply is coming from, civil engineering costs can run into hundreds of thousands of pounds.

Vehicles

Availability of product is a rapidly improving situation. In 2019, electric van choice was limited in the UK, with the majority sold by Renault and Nissan. Fast forward to the end of 2020 and no less than fourteen different manufacturers were offering 17 different electric or hybrid vans in the UK:

  • Citroen – e-Dispatch
  • Fiat – e-Ducato
  • Ford – Transit Custom PHEV
  • Iveco – Daily Electric
  • LEVC – VN5
  • M.A.N. – eTGE
  • MAXUS – eDeliver 3
  • Mercedes-Benz – eVito and eSprinter
  • Mitsubishi – Outlander Commercial PHEV
  • Peugeot – e-Expert
  • Renault – Zoe van, Kangoo ZE and Master ZE
  • Renault Trucks – Master ZE
  • Vauxhall – Vivaro-e
  • Volkswagen – ABT Transporter 6.1

By the end of 2021, at least another 7 new vans will be available and by 2023 it is estimated that a further 20 new models will enter the market. In 2019, 3,204 electric LCVs were registered and a further 5,492 registered by the end of 2020 an increase of 71.4%. Today the market share is small. At around 1.9% for 2020, with growing interest in the market and major utility companies now placing orders, that share is set to grow significantly.

Purchase or lease

Lingering concerns over initial vehicle cost have not been helped by the recent decision by the DfT to reduce the Plug-in Van Grant from a maximum of £8,000, to a limit of £3,000 for vehicles with gross vehicle weights up to 2.5 tonnes and £6,000 for vehicles between 2.5t-3.5t. Unfortunately, this is sending the wrong message to all those contemplating a move away from diesel. If the UK Government is serious about reducing the size of the carbon footprint and being a leader in zero-emission mobility, grants remain necessary to continue to kick-start the movement.

Higher purchase prices of electric vans remain a prohibitive hurdle to EV ownership to many potential owners. A persistent question is whether the key to large scale adoption is leasing these vehicles rather than outright purchase. Not only can the costs be spread evenly over the term of a contract, it enables regular fleet renewals, allowing vehicles to keep track of new technologies and vehicle developments.

Whole life costs and downtime

The whole life cost of running an electric van is less than an equivalent ICE model.  Although the upfront purchase price is higher, once depreciation, servicing, maintenance, taxation and running costs are taken into account, electric vehicles are cheaper to run.  A large portion of the potential cost-saving is fuel, with UK electricity prices significantly lower than diesel. Additionally, as there are fewer working parts on an EV, this minimises vehicle downtime and delivers lower price servicing and repairs ensuring the vehicle is off the road for less time.

New technologies

One new technology already being worked on is by StoreDot, an Israeli battery company. They are pioneering extreme fast charging (XFC) battery technology. This technology will potentially allow five-minute EV charging as a commercial reality.

Another development is the supply and production of battery components and the batteries themselves. The UK doesn’t have a gigafactory at present, but as battery costs fall and EV range improves, demand will increase. Currently, in the UK, there is only small-scale battery assembly at Nissan in Sunderland with the facility making enough battery cells for approximately 50,000 40kWh Leaf models a year.

While current demand doesn’t justify a big plant, it soon will. Britishvolt, a start-up battery manufacturer has selected Blyth in Northumberland as the location for the UK’s first gigafactory. Built adjacent to the Blyth Power Station, the plant plans to be producing batteries by the end of 2023.

A partnership of 19 vehicle manufacturers, local authorities, universities, colleges and industry research bodies is also developing proposals for a gigafactory to be built at Coventry Airport, potentially creating 4,000 jobs and could be operational by 2025.

End of life

An equally big part of the green change is the end of life recycling, with OEMs in particular, creating roadmaps for battery reuse, recycling and sustainability that will address climate-change concerns. Renault, for example, recently joined forces with Veolia and Solvay to establish a circular economy for recycling cobalt, nickel and lithium from batteries to reduce the environmental footprint.

At the beginning of 2021, Volkswagen Group (VWG) began recycling batteries at their Salzgitter plant. A circular process of reusing usable battery modules to give a second life in mobile energy storage systems utilising a ‘pyrometallurgical process’. Through dismantling, crushing and sieving components, up to 90% of each redundant battery is recycled. This means that despite there being limited raw materials, mass production can still be achieved. 

Nissan on the other hand has taken used Leaf car batteries to power automated-guided vehicles (AGVs), to help bring components at the factory to the workers. Around 4,000 AGVs are in use in Nissan factories globally, saving time and increasing efficiency.

ICE demand

Moving towards 2030, registrations of petrol and diesel vehicles will steadily decline as fleets have to renew their fleets with EVs. These will be driven by several positive factors including:

  • A wider choice of vehicles
  • Government-backed grants
  • Lower cost of ownership
  • Exemptions from road charging including clean air zones
  • Exempt from vehicle excise duty
  • Reduced charging times
  • Improved battery ranges
  • Increased battery power density
  • Zero per cent benefit-in-kind rate for electric vans (from 6th April 2021)

Negative factors are accelerating fleet decisions including:

  • Increasing numbers of Clean Air Zones (CAZs), Low Emission Zones (LEZs) and the expansion of the London Ultra Low-Emission Zone (ULEZ)
  • Increasing road charging prices for ICE
  • Increasing diesel and petrol prices
  • CO2 based taxation for LCV VED
  • Reducing ICE residual values in the medium term leading to increased leasing rates

Does it make good business sense?

Demand is growing exponentially as more product becomes available and pressure mounts on LCV operators to make the switch. For every fleet, large or small, the tipping point will be slightly different. The chances are that the switch for many will be staggered, with small numbers added to the fleet at a time and allocated to specific operational roles. The belief that the days of an identical fleet of vehicles performing all transport roles are numbered. Taking its place will be specific vehicles completing specific tasks built around location, route, payload and hours on the road.

Podcast: A brave new world – leasing, semiconductors, e-storage and recycling

Senior data journalist Neil King and Daily Brief journalist Tom Geggus discuss some of the biggest automotive news topics from the past fortnight. The pair consider leasing by Lidl, the semiconductors shortage, Shell’s electricity-storage system and battery-recycling initiatives.  

https://soundcloud.com/autovistagroup/a-brave-new-world-leasing-semiconductors-e-storage-and-recycling

Show notes

Lidl supermarket chain offers car leasing online in Germany

Germany extends lockdown measures to 18 April

Semiconductor factory fire in Japan adds to global shortage

Europe sets sights on semiconductor production

Shell trials on-site, battery-powered, electricity-storage system

Reuse and recycle: a mantra for EV-battery manufacturing

Used Car Market Update- February 2021

Used Car Auction Wholesale Market

At the beginning of February, it was still unclear how long this latest lockdown would continue, or how restrictions would be lifted or eased once it ended. Crucially for the UK used car industry, there was, therefore, no indication when showrooms and sales sites could open to “physical” customers.

The use of online selling and suitably distanced handovers has certainly helped dealers achieve more sales than would have been considered possible twelve months ago, but for many buyers, there is no substitute for actually seeing the car they are buying before they sign on the dotted line.

Therefore, it should come as no surprise that the used car wholesale market in February was relatively steady. Auction sale volume was slightly lower than in January, yet understandably was significantly lower than February 2020. Similarly, the first time conversion rate of 76.5% was only 1.7% lower than January’s score but over 12% lower than a year ago.

Used car market first time conversion rate graph February 2021
Used car market percentage of original cost new graph February 2021

Charts based on a representative sample of current UK auction data but excludes observations from British Car Auctions

As usual, the cars that sold best were the ones in good condition, with the desirable specification. Without the need for restocking, there was even less desire than usual to buy cars that need work. It was noticeable that demand increased right at the end of the month following the announcements regarding the route out of lockdown.

Used Car Retail Market

Whilst February’s used car auction market was relatively steady, the used car retail market performed fairly well despite the ongoing lockdown. The number of observed sales were up almost 14% compared to January, as was the average sale value, albeit only by 2.3%. Unsurprisingly, the number of sales were almost 13% lower than for February 2020 but still promising given the challenging circumstances.

Used car retail market observations graph February 2021
Used car market average sale price February 2021

The length of time a car spends on the forecourt is a good indication of its retail popularity, and it is one of the pieces of data that GlassNet Radar records. February’s average of 57.8 days was 6.1 days higher than for January and almost 15 days higher than the average stay in February 2020. This is not surprising given the current situation and is likely to improve once sales sites can open fully.

Used car market average days to sell February 2021

Outlook

The announcement towards the end of February of the phased lifting of lockdown restrictions led to an improvement in used car auction activity, and it is reasonable to expect that this will continue through March. The introduction of the new registration plate usually leads to an increase in auction activity towards the end of the month, however, Glass’s expects registration volumes to be significantly lower than in 2019 (the last “COVID-free” March!), and even last year, so demand may well exceed supply which should lead to a strengthening of hammer prices.

New Car Market Update February 2021

With the UK in lockdown throughout February, it comes as no surprise to see another drop in new car registrations, with dealers having to rely on ‘click and collect’ and telephone transactions only. A total of 51,312 new cars were registered in February, down 35.5% from last year, according to data published by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). Underlining how poor February’s total was, the SMMT reported it was the lowest for the month in 52 years.

February’s deficit was a slight improvement on January’s 39.5% reduction. However, that is little comfort on such a small volume, in what is usually the quietest month of the year for sales, as consumers await the new plate in March.

Plug-in vehicles continued their upward trajectory with Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Plug-in Hybrid (PHEVs) taking a combined 13.0% market share for the month, up from just 5.7% in February 2020. BEV registrations increased by 40.2% to 3,516, and PHEVs by 52.1% to 3,131 as the motor industry continues to improve the choice and supply for consumers.

The contraction in registrations in February was more severe in the retail sector, down 37.3%, while fleet volume was down 33.5%. The fast disappearing business sector fell 56.6% to just 637 units. Over the first two months, the retraction in volume has been even across both private and fleet as shown in the chart below.

Sector Split YTD February 2021

On 22 February, The Prime Minister outlined a roadmap for easing restrictions in England, with non-essential retail, including car showrooms, able to reopen no earlier than 12 April. In Scotland, this is expected from the last week of April. A review of restrictions in Wales conducted on 12 March was expected to announce that non-essential retail would be able to reopen as soon as 15 March, however, although some restrictions were relaxed, non-essential retail will remain close until 12 April. A timetable for easing restrictions in Northern Ireland has not been announced, although a review is planned for 16 March.

Glass’s expects another poor set of results for March 2021, which is usually the busiest month of the year. We may not see a huge percentage drop versus last year as March 2020 heralded the start of the first national lockdown, with dealerships closing towards the end of the month, which impacted registrations.

From April, as the economy opens back up, there is an expectation that we will see pent-up private consumer demand released, together with an uptick in fleet activity as many extended lease contracts end. This will provide a significant boost to registrations for the second quarter, kickstarting dealers 2021 new car campaigns.

Ford Puma – The changing face of automotive

Approximately, one in three car buyers in Europe is choosing an SUV. As part of a drive to increase SUV penetration, the Ford Motor Company resurrected the Ford Puma name in 2019, but in keeping with current trends, this time for a small SUV rather than a small Fiesta-based agile coupe as it did in the 1990s. This was a controversial move among Ford fans, but the result is a model that has a crossover stance and a bigger boot than the Ford Focus and sits in Ford’s European range halfway between the Ecosport and the new Kuga.

Based on the seventh generation Fiesta chassis, the new Puma looks differ from many crossovers on the road, offering a much sportier stance. Proving popular from launch, it continues to impress critics recently winning What Car? – Car of the Year in 2020.

2019 Ford Puma ST-Line

The new Ford Puma offers a sporty on-road presence

Overall the vehicle appears a little tall, but Ford’s engineers have created an SUV that is composed and offers an excellent drive, with a first-rate manual gearbox, direct steering and minimal body roll. With some shared parts from the current Fiesta, the Puma feels as engaging as many well-sorted hatchbacks.

The current entry-level Puma – the Titanium, offers a very impressive specification including 17-inch alloy wheels, projector headlights and Ford’s SYNC 3 navigation with 8-inch TFT touchscreen display as standard, as well as an array of safety features. It comes fitted with a mild-hybrid 1.0 litre EcoBoost petrol engine in manual transmission, offered as a 125PS and 155PS variant. An automatic version is also available, although this the automatic version does not have a mild-hybrid engine.

Prices start at £22,040, rising to £29,445 for the range-topping ST with Performance Pack, which is fitted with a 1.5 litre 200PS version of the EcoBoost engine.

The Puma was Ford’s first new car to include the ‘Ford MegaBox’, which enhances the boots capacity by 80 litres, giving the car class-leading load space of 456 litres. The ‘MegaBox’ provides a deep, versatile storage space that is capable of comfortably accommodating two golf bags in an upright position.

The ‘Ford MegaBox’

Residual Values

Comparing Glass’s Forecast values for the Ford Puma with the average for the B segment, it performs favourably at 3-years, 30,000 miles. As the graph below shows, Glass’s Forecast suggests the Puma will achieve a residual value equating to 50% of the original cost new prices, whereas the average for the B segment is just over 40%.

The Ford Puma outperforms the B-Segment

Summary

There is no doubt that the Puma has strong rivals, including models from its own stable, however with a good mix of style and practicality the car appeals to a wide demographic. With small SUV sales continuing to climb, the Puma is an extremely important model for Ford. With mild-hybrid technology and the 1.0-litre EcoBoost engine ensuring low cost of ownership, today, the Puma is an excellent small SUV choice.

V8 Dreams

  • The smooth power delivery of a V8 engine
  • The appeal of bargain prices
  • A throwback to a more carefree exciting time

The V8 engine is synonymous with power, speed and an unmistakable engine note.  Amazingly, considering only the purchase price, there is no need to break the bank to buy a V8 powered car. There are still examples currently available from just £1,000 in the used car market. Many of these cars have been ‘around the block’ a few times, so to get one under 150,000 miles and a sensible number of owners, around £3,000 is a realistic starting price.

The following are examples of used luxury V8 powered cars currently on the market. All were on offer on one of the UK’s market-leading online advertising platforms at the time of writing.   

  • Jaguar S Type 4.2 SE      – 2004, 75,000 miles      – £2,995
  • BMW X5 4.4 Sport          – 2005, 120,000 miles    – £2,950
  • Lexus LS430                      – 2002, 135,000 miles    – £3,250
  • Mercedes CL500             – 2002, 100,000 miles    – £3,495 
  • Audi A8, 4.2 Quattro      – 2003, 97,000 miles      – £3,500

If a more performance pedigree is on your wish list, then you will have to stretch the budget. Around the £12,000 mark will get you a 15-year-old BMW M5 or Mercedes E55 AMG, unless it has dubious service history or prior damage recorded. The comparable model from the rival Audi stable is the RS6, and that too will set you back upwards of £12,000. All three models deliver horsepower by the bucket load.

If that is out of budget, for half the price you can acquire an Audi S6. It may be slightly down on power compared to the RS6 but still benefits from the brilliant road-hugging Quattro system. It has the same 4.2 V8 engine, just minus the twin Turbo’s, so at least in the wet, it is more manageable for the average driver.

There is an argument that buying a V8 car with a performance pedigree is a shrewd investment, as in recent years they have tended to increase in value annually, although servicing and maintenance costs can easily use up most of this gain, however, this much fun will always come at a price.

Perhaps getting a little old now but a Porsche 928 with its awesome 5.0 V8 power unit has been on many collectors’ shopping lists, albeit prices start at £14,000 for something that does not need too much work. If it is value for money you are after but you still desire a Porsche badge, a Porsche Cayenne 4.5 V8 from around £4,000 should fit the bill. It is an incredibly powerful SUV for Citroen C1 money! It might not win the village beauty contest, but all that power will put a grin on anybody’s face.

Moving into perhaps the most capable of all-rounders – Audi’s R8. It is a car that is as happy going to the shops as it is on the race circuit, with stunning aesthetics that have not aged a bit in the almost 15 years since launch. Examples in the used car market start at around £30,000 for a thirteen-year-old model with 76,000 miles on the clock. Some would say not a lot of money for a V8 with Supercar appeal and impressive capabilities.  

For some, a V8 is more about a muscle car, and the Mustang from Ford would best sum that up. Available in right-hand drive form since 2016, the car has a 5.0 litre V8 with 450bhp and is produced as a convertible or a fixed head coupe.  A fixed head example from 2016 with 16,000 miles will set you back £27,000 in today’s market.

Yes, they are iconic and good value, whether you have £1,500 or £30,000, your options for a fantastic V8 are there. They might be a throwback to a more carefree, less environmentally friendly time, but for high-speed cruising or fast pace acceleration, they deliver excitement by the bucket load!

March 2021: Downturn in plate change activity

With car showrooms remaining closed until at least April 12th, March’s plate change is being severely impacted. Whilst ‘click and collect’ is possible, evidence from January and February’s new car market suggests March’s potential registration deficit will be unrecoverable in 2021.

In March 2020, Lockdown-1 brought an early end to trading with dealerships forced to close on the 23rd, with registrations down over 200,000 compared to the prior year. There were other COVID factors at play affecting the market other than the lockdown, but a reasonable proportion of the deficit was due to dealerships closing for business. Although click and collect services are available this year, the last few months have reminded us that a significant proportion of the UK public is not ready to buy big-ticket items in this way. Once again we should expect a large downturn in March’s registration activity compared to even last year, and compared to a “normal” year the gap will be huge.   

Throughout much of the pandemic, the used car market remained resilient, although, through this latest extended lockdown period, activity has been lack-lustre. With retail activity slow, again only conducted by click and collect and over the telephone, dealers have not needed to replenish stock as regularly. As a result, wholesale trading has been poor with low conversion rates and subdued hammer prices. The percentage of cars selling on the first time of asking at auction in February was 76.5%, 1.3 points lower than in January, and over ten percentage points lower than February 2020.

Now that dealerships have a clearer indication of when they can reopen, we are expecting a significant uptick in activity as dealers begin building forecourt stock. That said, at the time of writing (the second week of the month) there has been no significant improvement. There currently does not appear to be an abundance of stock available in auction channels, so if the activity does increase it will likely lead to a strengthening of hammer prices. However, it remains to be seen whether any fresh stock has been held back recently, with vendors waiting to benefit from better trading conditions. If stock levels do increase it will be good news for dealers.

New Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Market February 2021

The new light commercial vehicle market grew by 22.0% in February. This positive high-level figure includes delayed pipeline orders and is set against the typically quiet month preceding the new March plate. Year-to-date, the light commercial vehicle market is 9.5% up overall versus 2020, with large increases in all sectors except those vans under 2.0 tonnes.

SMMT data indicates that the 17,205 February registration total is 3,102 units more than in February 2020 and is the strongest February on record since 1998 (18,044).

Breaking down the results reveals the only disappointment was a 25.3% registration decline for vans under 2.0 tonnes. Registrations for vans between 2.0-2.5 tonnes increased 9.0% whilst demand from construction and online deliveries saw the between 2.5-3.5 tonne sector improve by 30.0%. The Pickup sector also recorded a 26.8% increase.

The Ford Transit Custom failed to hold on to the number one position, deposed by its big brother, the Ford Transit. Nevertheless, Ford still managed to place four of its product ranges in the top ten.  The Ford Transit in top spot followed by the Ford Transit Custom in second, the Ford Ranger in seventh place and Ford Transit Connect in eighth.

Top five LCV registrations

Top Five LCV Registrations

Capitalising on this registration momentum will be vital as the UK emerges from lockdown with an economic plan that encourages LCV growth and gives businesses confidence to upgrade to cleaner and more sustainable fleets.

The March Budget froze fuel duty rates for an eleventh consecutive year. This is likely to be the last year fleets can expect a freeze, as the Treasury commits to a net-zero emissions target by 2050. The ambitious targets set to address climate change and meet air quality goals mean the fastest way to achieve these goals is to instil business confidence and encourage the take-up of the latest low emission vehicles.

February used Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) overview

  • LCV used market buoyant in February
  • Easing lockdown likely to determine how quickly the economy recovers
  • New stock shortages forcing franchised dealers to source late-plate stock

February has seen the used market in buoyant form overall, with prices remaining strong for anything that can easily be turned around quickly. Even the minibus sector that has struggled over the last 12 months due to COVID restrictions is seeing values firm as buyers look to stock up in readiness for the easing of lockdown regulations. Forward Control vehicles and 4×4 Pick-ups have also seen a performance improvement.

First-time conversion rates remain high for ready-to-retail panel vans, driven mainly by the expanding home shopping market. There has been a noticeable increase in damaged vehicles on offer, with the number of provisional sales increasing as well. With many of these turned into sales after the event, it is only those with damage now avoided by the trade. Demand remained strong for the small numbers of clean, late-year retail stock, forcing those prices ever higher. With a lack of new de-fleet stock to ease supply and demand issues, prices look set to remain high for at least the first half of 2021.

The severe shortage of new stock at dealerships is not only forcing fleets to run their vehicles for longer but is forcing franchised dealers into the used market to source late-year stock. This extra layer of competition for the trade is pushing prices ever higher. On the plus side, the recent lifting of government restrictions on the sale of repossessed vehicles should benefit the used market with an increase in volume over the next few months.

With global vaccinations on the increase, the easing of lockdown measures will determine how quickly the new market recovers, in turn, increasing volume in the used market.

Although sales at auction in February increased by just under 13% compared to January 2021, sales over the same month last year decreased by over 17%. Only 8.5% of those sales were less than 2 years old, whilst nearly a third of all sales were in the 2-4yr old age bracket.

Medium-sized vans again proved the most versatile and popular in the used market, increasing market share in February by 3.5% to 38.5% of all sales, followed by Small vans with 28%.

February in detail

Glass’s auction data shows the overall number of LCV sales in February declined by 12.9% versus January 2021, whilst first-time conversion rates decreased 1.5% to 84.2%.

Average sales prices paid in February increased by a dramatic 5.5% versus January and are now a staggering 36% higher than the same point last year. The average age of sold stock increased slightly from 68.8 months in January to 69 months in February and was 6.8 months younger than the same point last year.

Average mileages also increased from 75,532 miles in January to 79,936 miles in February and was just 311 miles lower than at the same point last year.

Glass’s continues to monitor the LCV market closely and has an open dialogue with auction houses, manufacturers, leasing and rental companies, independent traders and dealers as well as the main industry bodies. This information, combined with the wealth of knowledge in our CV team ensures Glass’s valuations remain relevant in the market place.

Video: Europe’s registrations struggle in February but improvements to come

Autovista Group Daily Brief editor Phil Curry discusses the registration figures from Europe’s big five automotive markets. While numbers may be down, the outlook for the whole year is more positive…

To get notifications for all the latest videos, you can subscribe for free to the Autovista Group Daily Brief YouTube channel.

Show notes

Lockdown drives German new-car registrations down by 19% in February

February UK new-car registrations plunge to level of 1959

Significant downturns in European registrations in February

Conditional reopening of German car showrooms

England’s car showrooms to remain closed until 12 April

Podcast: How is European automotive adapting to pandemic and climate-change fallout?

Daily Brief editor Phil Curry and journalist Tom Geggus discuss key activities and developments in the European automotive sector from the past fortnight. These include COVID-19’s effect on the uptake of mobility-as-a-service (MAAS), different fuel types, and autonomous technology.

https://soundcloud.com/autovistagroup/consumers-post-covid-automotive-outlook

Show notes

Cazoo buys Cluno as CaaS options increase

Significant downturns in European registrations in February

Lockdown drives German new-car registrations down by 19% in February

February UK new-car registrations plunge to level of 1959

VW accelerates towards electric and digital future

VW aims for commercialised autonomous systems in 2025

Is it too early to go ‘EV-only’?

Ford to be zero-emission capable in Europe by 2026

Jaguar makes BEV and hydrogen changes on path to net zero

Volvo to go all electric and online by 2030

E-fuels gain awareness as Mazda joins alliance

Video: How are touchscreens changing interior car design?

Autovista Group’s chief economist Dr Christof Engelskirchen and Sam Livingstone, director of automotive agency Car Design Research, discuss the rising trend of touchscreens in vehicle-interior design. Are they safe, and will the technology age as advancements progress?

Watch the first part of the two-part interview here where investment in the car industry is discussed: How can carmakers attract investment?

To get notifications for all the latest videos, you can subscribe for free to the Autovista Group Daily Brief YouTube channel.