Fuel Type: Electric Vehicle (BEV)

LCV Marketplace Update November 2020

New Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Market

The light commercial vehicle (LCV) market grew for the second consecutive month in October, with the 28,753 registrations the highest performing on record for October. The 13.3% increase in registrations was driven by the heavier end of the van market ahead of an expected busy delivery period in the run up to Christmas. This is in contrast to a weaker October 2019, when the market was impacted by supply challenges linked to the introduction of WLTP compliant LCVs.

The second countrywide lockdown, social distancing measures, redundancies, Brexit and possible vehicle tariffs will all affect LCV demand for the remainder of this year and well into next year.

New LCV registrations graph November 2020

Year-to-date registrations to the of October have declined by 24.1%, with 236,833 units hitting UK roads (311,989 units – 2019). Breaking the month down by sectors reveals that registrations for pickups declined by a disappointing 31.8%, whilst vans under 2.0 tonnes, vans between 2.0-2.5 tonnes and vans between 2.5-3.5 tonnes increased by 1.6%, 2.9% and 26.8% respectively.

LCV top 5 registrations table November 2020

The quarter four SMMT LCV registration forecast for 2020 has just been issued and surprisingly shows an increase of 6.6% to 288,000 units. With a current shortfall of over 50,000 units, lead in delays on new stock, a shortage of vehicles at dealer level and two months left of the year, the new predictions would seem a tall order to achieve.

Moving into November, UK registrations remain over 24% down on the same point last year. The pandemic with the second English lockdown continues to seriously affect many businesses. Although September and October registrations were welcome boosts to the economy, it will take an exceptional boost to achieve the latest SMMT forecast.

The interconnected nature of the UK economy means that the demands of the latest lockdown and Brexit will bring opportunities and challenges in equal measure during the coming months.

October Used Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Overview

Performance in the LCV auction market remained exceptional in October with buyers exchanging high bids for retail-ready stock. The continuing stock shortages across all ages and sectors, driven by fleet extensions and increased rental demand, means vendors are currently in a very strong position. In the retail market, dealers are enjoying healthy profits as prices continue to rise. There is no change on the horizon, as prices look set to remain high for some time.

Euro 6 stock made up nearly 40% of all LCVs sold at auction during October, with an 88.9% first-time conversion rate. Much of this stock continues to support the increasing demand for home deliveries during the second lockdown and the run-up to Christmas.

The sustained appetite for retail-ready stock shows no sign of abating. Auction houses have adapted quickly during the pandemic, moving their business models online. Whilst dealers and traders, who historically attended physical sales to ‘touch the metal’, now buy online with confidence. In return, many dealers are offering retail customers ‘click and collect’ online services adhering to current government guidelines.

October in detail

Glass’s auction data results show the overall number of LCV sales in October fell by 8.4% versus September 2020 and were down 2.0% versus October 2019. First-time conversions were up 2.5% on September to 89.9% – the second-highest level in the last twelve months – and up 4.3% versus October 2019.

Since March this year, average sales prices have risen 33.6%, with October 4.5% up on September and 36.3% up on the same point last year. October prices were at the highest level for the last twelve months. The average age of sold stock rose from 69.7 months in September to 72.4 months in October, whilst this figure was 0.7 months lower than the same point last year.

In line with this older vehicle age profile, average mileages for those vehicles sold increased from 70,457 miles in September to 73,438 miles in October. Remarkably, the October average mileage is nearly 7,250 miles lower than at the same point last year.

Glass’s continues to monitor the LCV market closely and has an open dialogue with auction houses and manufacturers, leasing and rental companies, independent traders and dealers as well as the main industry bodies. This information, combined with the wealth of knowledge in our CV team ensures Glass’s valuations remain relevant in the market place.

New Car Market Update October 2020

Following September, new car registrations in October had a relatively low bar to clear to eclipse last year’s total, due to the WLTP emissions testing challenges faced in 2019.  However, once again registrations failed to match last year’s figure coming in 1.6% lower at 140,945, according to the latest figures published by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). This was the lowest October total for nine years and over 10% lower than the average October total over the last decade.

There was potential for an uptick in October, but with the Welsh lockdown towards the end of the month hitting registrations in the region by up to 25%, any momentum fizzled out. On a positive note, October was the least-worse month-on-month comparison versus 2019 (see chart below). The year to date registration total is now down 31%.

Total new car registrations monthly graph November 2020

Data courtesy of SMMT

Pure petrol cars saw a 21.3% reduction while diesel fell a significant 38.4% and accounted for just 14.9% of the new car market in October. However, large increases in mild-hybrid (MHEV) models mitigate these figures as they jumped significantly compared to last October, with petrol MHEV up 545.8% and Diesel MHEV up 56.6%. This shift has played out all year as shown in the year-to-date chart below, as car manufacturers continue to reduce CO2 outputs using mild-hybrid technologies.

New car market fuel type ytd % change graph November 2020

Data courtesy of SMMT

Despite the year’s very low total registration figure, the bright spot continues to be alternative fuel vehicles, especially Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs). With the registration total of BEVs almost trebling in October compared to last year. The adoption of BEVs is higher in the fleet market, with 43,146 cars registered year-to-date compared to the private market at 26,682. Benefit in kind (BIK) taxation benefits and product confidence make the BEV proposition more compelling to company car users. For private retail customers, the lack of taxation savings, higher list prices (versus internal combustion engine vehicles), lack of knowledge of both longer driving ranges and the potential for the total cost of ownership savings, makes the BEV purchase proposition more difficult for private consumers with the increased upfront financial burden.

Car Market Overview November 2020

To adhere to the latest government imposed COVID-19 lockdown, on November 5 car dealers in England temporarily closed their physical sales operations for the second time in a year. Lockdown-2 follows similarly enhanced social restrictions seen in other parts of the UK. Despite this economic setback, many dealers continue to offer cars for sale through ‘click and collect’. However, even with these strategies in place, Glass’s still expects a significant impact on UK dealer’s profits.

To support businesses throughout this period the Government has extended the Furlough scheme, which will be welcome news. However, this extension does not only cover the four-week lockdown, it will last until the end of March 2021. This has raised anxiety amongst business leaders that extended restrictions may affect businesses via full lockdowns or changes to the local tiered alert system.

The tier system was in place in October, affecting different regions in England in a variety of ways, although not affecting car dealers and other ‘non-essential’ retail outlets. In other parts of the UK, restrictions required dealers to close. This impacted new car sales during this period. According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), the new car market fell by 1.6% in October, to just under 141,000 registrations, marking a nine-year low. The year to date registration total now sits almost 621,000 below last year, a drop of 31%.

The wholesale auction market continued with strength in the early days of October, but conversion rates began falling as the month went on. It seems that many dealers felt they had the correct level of stock and began ‘cherry-picking’ as a result. As is common when dealers become more selective, vehicle condition becomes more important, with cars with higher auction condition grades falling out of favour, either receiving no bids or disproportionately low offers. Glass’s understands that sold volume increased slightly in October compared to last year but first-time conversion rates fell by five percentage points, to 80%.

Although there is a high level of uncertainty in the current new and used car markets, dealers should take some comfort from how trading bounced back following the end of Lockdown-1. However, with the latest lockdown due to end in December, which is typically a slower retail month due to the pressures of Christmas, Glass’s does not expect retail activity to be as strong. That said, we expect wholesale trading to remain reasonably positive, as dealers build stock for the important post-Christmas and early new year period.

Ford and Volvo to pool emissions as recalls wreak havoc

Ford will enter a pool with Volvo Cars to meet its 2020 European CO2 emissions target. The recall of the Kuga plug-in hybrid (PHEV) reduced the number of low-emissions models the carmaker could sell this year, impacting its fleet-average CO2 level.

But while Volvo Cars announced it was set to overachieve on this year’s targets, its subsidiary Polestar confirmed it is also initiating a recall. As safety concerns continue to plague electric vehicles (EVs) and shake consumer confidence, manufacturers will need to act decisively if they want to meet their respective emissions targets.

Ford’s recall

In August, Ford recalled and suspended sales of Kuga PHEVs built up until 26 June, after four vehicles reportedly caught fire. The problem was traced back to the potential for water to cause an electrical short, which could then lead to overheated battery cells. It was estimated that over 20,000 models could be affected. With the Mustang Mach-E not yet in showrooms, Ford lacks a mass-market EV, leaving it heavily reliant on PHEVs to meet its emissions obligations.

‘Ford always has, and will continue to meet, the EU’s emissions targets. Based on our product roadmap and production schedule for this year, we expected to comply with the new regulations, and this was still our intent with the COVID-related disruption to manufacturing,’ the carmaker said in a statement sent to Autovista Group. ‘However, given the current supplier battery issue with the Kuga PHEV, Ford now will enter a pool to meet the EU’s 2020 emissions regulations without penalty for passenger vehicles, just as many other OEMs have done in Europe.’

‘We recently declared our intent to join an open pool with other OEMs and can confirm we are doing so with Volvo Car Corporation,’ Ford added. ‘Conversely, as we anticipate over achieving our CO2 targets on light commercial vehicles, we have filed separately our intent to form an open pool so other OEMs can benefit from the positive CO2 performance of our light commercial fleet.’

Pooling with Volo

At the end of October, Volvo Cars and its EV affiliate Polestar confirmed they would be able to reduce fleet emissions beyond their joint CO2 target. This left them with enough surplus to enter a pool with Ford, with the resulting revenue from the deal to be reinvested in new green-technology projects.

‘For Volvo Car Group, the future is electric and we are transforming our company through concrete action,’ said Håkan Samuelsson, chief executive of Volvo Car Group. ‘I am pleased to see that we are exceeding our CO2 reduction targets. It proves our strategy is the right one for our business and for the planet.’

PHEVs made up more than a quarter of Volvo Cars’ sales in Europe during the first three quarters of 2020. By 2025, the carmaker aims for its global sales volume to consist of 50% BEVs, with the rest made up from hybrids. Meanwhile, Volvo’s EV brand began deliveries of the Polestar 2 in July. But as Ford joins Volvo’s emissions pool, the Polestar 2 has climbed into the same boat as the Kuga PHEV, as it too hits stormy waters.

Polestar recalls

In a statement issued at the end of October, the BEV-maker confirmed it is initiating a recall as well as a service campaign of the Polestar 2. The recall will involve the replacement of faulty inverters on most delivered customer vehicles. This unit transforms stored energy in the battery into the power required by the electric motors. Polestar confirmed the total number of affected vehicles delivered to customers is 4,586.

Meanwhile, the service campaign relates to the high-voltage coolant heater, which is responsible for both cabin and high-voltage battery heating. The carmaker confirmed that faulty parts fitted to early production cars need to be replaced. The total number of affected vehicles delivered to customers is 3,150.

So, in the wake of the Kuga PHEV recall, Ford found emissions regulations relief in Volvo Cars, whose affiliate is now coming face to face with EV issues itself. As recalls ravage new EV models, carmakers must act quickly to ensure consumer confidence does not take too much of a nosedive. If public opinion takes a dramatic turn against PHEVs and BEVs, the potential for manufacturers to achieve their emissions targets will plunge.

Mini model range to expand and electrify

BMW has outlined new plans for its Mini brand, including the electrification of the entire model range, in cooperation with Chinese manufacturer Great Wall, and the addition of two new crossover models.

Mini started on the road to electrification in 2008, with the low-volume production of the Mini E. With the plug-in hybrid (PHEV) variant of the Mini Countryman alone, electric vehicles (EVs) accounted for 5% of the brand’s total sales in 2019, according to a BMW Group release. Following the launch of the Mini Electric earlier this year, the EV share has doubled to 10% of all new registrations for the brand.

Looking forward, Mini ‘will enable customers all over the world to have emission-free driving with a completely electrified model family.’ However, the brand will continue to offer internal combustion engines (ICEs) as they remain an ‘ideal solution for target groups and regions whose mobility needs are not yet met by all-electric vehicles.’

‘With the two pillars of our drivetrain strategy, we are pursuing the Power of Choice approach to meet the needs of our customers around the world,’ Bernd Körber, head of Mini, said in the statement. ‘This will create the conditions for further growth and actively shape the transformation of mobility.’

Speaking to the German publication WirtschaftsWoche, Körber commented that ‘we will electrify the whole Mini portfolio by 2024.’ He added that there will be Mini cars with ICE until 2030 but the brand will be ‘completely electric earlier than most other brands.’ Körber predicts that beyond 2025, more than half of all Minis sold will be purely electric, and Mini could be an electric brand in 2030. ‘Already at the end of 2020, the share of pure-electric and plug-in hybrid Minis sold will be about 10% to 15%. In 2021, it should then be about 15-20%.’

Crossing over

The future Mini range of all-electric vehicles will include the three-door hatchback, a new crossover model in the small-car segment and a compact crossover model. The Mini Countryman compact crossover will therefore be joined by a new crossover model in the small-car segment, which will be supplied exclusively with an all-electric drive. The next-generation Countryman will be available with both ICE and electrified powertrains.

However, this does leave a question mark over the future of the Mini Clubman compact hatchback model, which is produced at Mini’s plant in Oxford, UK. The Clubman spearheaded Mini’s move into the premium compact segment before being joined by the Countryman. Around 40% of the brand’s vehicle sales are in this segment.

Building with Great Wall of China

The Chinese vehicle market continues to grow and will become even more important for Mini in the future. Currently, around 10% of all new vehicles produced for the brand are delivered to customers in China. It comes as little surprise, therefore, that Mini will move from being an import brand to producing cars locally.

Based on a new vehicle architecture, developed from the ground up for pure e-mobility, battery-electric vehicles will be produced in China from 2023, in cooperation with local manufacturer; Great Wall Motor.

‘This venture will enable Mini to meet the rising demand for emission-free driving both in China and in the other global markets. Cooperation with the Chinese partner will be based on a clearly defined principle: production follows the market. With locally manufactured vehicles, Mini will serve the growing Chinese automotive market whilst maintaining stable production at other locations,’ BMW Group said in its statement.

Video: Emissions anxiety for carmakers

Autovista Group Daily Brief editor Phil Curry explains why some carmakers are concerned about rising CO2 levels, and how the industry has got to this point with a strict European target in place…

To get notifications for all the latest videos, you can subscribe for free to the Autovista Group Daily Brief YouTube channel. There you will also find videos on a range of subjects including autonomous vehicles, new-car registrations, safety systems, and electrification.

How is electromobility changing fleets?

The automotive industry has been dominated by a few specific topics in the last year; from coronavirus (COVID-19) to electromobility and the advance of new technologies. But how have these subjects impacted one of the industry’s most important sectors? In a new series, Autovista Group’s Daily Brief journalist, Tom Geggus, speaks with industry insiders to discover how these themes are changing fleets. In this second instalment: electromobility.

While COVID-19’s impact on the automotive industry has been sharp and sudden, the effect of environmental concerns can be considered tectonic. But now the two phenomena are driving change in tandem, with COVID-19 acting as a catalyst for a shift to greener mobility. Pandemic recovery plans and environmental regulations are leading automotive companies and consumers down the road of electrification. Leaders of the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) recently called for pandemic recovery funds to be channelled into a green comeback.

Analysis conducted by Transport and Environment (T&E) revealed that electric cars will treble their market share in Europe in 2020, with most carmakers on track to meet their EU emissions targets. The environmental lobbying group also pointed to company cars as the ‘low-hanging fruit’ of electrification. T&E claim the segment could be utilised to achieve national climate goals, given that six out of 10 cars sold in Europe are company cars, and that last year 96% of new registrations belonging to the sector were petrol or diesel. So how are fleets adapting to electrification in the wake of COVID-19?

PHEVs meet policy

Management consulting company let it fleet sees the high life cycle cost of vehicles and increasing congestion in cities as cars are chosen over public transport, alongside the desire and need to be environmentally friendly, as leading people to alternative modes of transportation. This means a fundamental role change for fleet managers.

On top of looking after company vehicles, fleet managers will now oversee a wider variety of transport options, not to mention learning about new mobility technologies. As travel needs change with new working practices, combined with the influence of environmental consciousness, flexible approaches to mobility and policy will be essential. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are one key example, as government incentives, OEM supply and emissions regulations drive adoption.

‘Maybe the leasing will be over five to six years into the future because you will be driving less,’ said Alain Duez, co-founder of let it fleet. ‘It could also be that you will have more hybrid cars because driving less means that it will be more in favour of the hybrids tomorrow.’

wim-buzzi headshot co-founder let it fleet
Wim Buzzi, co-founder, let it fleet

‘If we look at what the market is offering, you cannot do without the plug-in hybrid, because there is not enough offering yet,’ explained Wim Buzzi, co-founder of let it fleet. ‘It is a good technology. But if you’re going to allow your people to drive plug-in hybrids without recharging them, then you have a crucial error in your policy.’

This opens up the potential for the creation of specific strategies to deal with how these vehicles are used, in line with day-to-day operations. For example, over-reliance on the internal combustion engine (ICE) could render a PHEV’s electric capacities pointless if not properly utilised, making its green credentials effectively null and void. Companies could lay out comprehensive policies for when, where and how to recharge, all dictated by how the car is driven. Equally. the employee could simply submit their fuel bill, so long as it reflects responsible use.

This also lays the road for onboard technologies, like telematics and smartphone applications, all allowing fleet managers to determine employee travel patterns. Accompanied by open communication and transparency, this would help assess the potential options for reducing costs and emissions without affecting efficiency or productivity. However, while driver behaviour might change as well as powertrain technology, the basic need for mobility will not.

‘Maybe in 10 years’ time, people will not have a dedicated company car parked in their car park every day, and they will have a subscription model. But they will always need the car,’ said Buzzi. ‘So, in whatever form, that car will always be included.’

Online trends drive on-road vehicles

Fleet Electromobility quote 2

COVID-19 also resulted in a surge of online shopping, with 52% of consumers buying more online from domestic retailers and 49% stating they will do so more in the future. But as concerns over the environmental impact of these trends grow, logistics companies are having to double-down on green initiatives.

Deutsche Post DHL (DPDHL) recently announced it is further committing to reducing emissions, in line with its GoGreen programme. By 2050, DPDHL aims to reduce all logistics-related emissions to zero. EVs currently make up 15% of DPDHL’s fleets, an increase of 10% over the last three years. In its 2019 Sustainability Report, the logistics company revealed that it uses over 13,000 vehicles with alternative drive systems, including more than 11,600 EVs.

‘In terms of e-mobility, especially in terms of electrification of our delivery fleet, I believe that we are really one of the leaders in the global market, and we are very proud of that position,’ said Nancy Cui, vice president for global car and van procurement at DPDHL. ‘I think that the percentage of our electric van fleet is, in comparison to the rest of the market, very high, especially in the LCV segment.’ However, integrating EVs into a demanding delivery role did initially invoke some range anxiety.  

‘With the introduction of these electric vans in domestic parcel and letter services, we saw at the very beginning some kind of range anxiety of the couriers,’ explained Lars Pappe, Vice President of eMobility design and development at DPDHL. ‘But pretty soon the drivers found out they have an average route length of only 25 to 40 kilometres a day, while the battery capacity of these vehicles exceeds this by far. So even in wintertime, there is enough battery capacity left to return to the depot.’ This realisation, coupled with proper route planning and staff training packages, helped reduce driver range anxiety to a minimum.

Alongside its delivery vehicle subsidiary, StreetScooter, DPDHL also has a strong focus on infrastructure. ‘DPDHL Group has installed more than 15,000 charging points throughout Germany in our depots and electrified roughly 13,000 of our delivery routes here,’ said Pappe.

Presently, the logistics company is tasking a dedicated team with assessing DPDHL sites around the world, working out the electrification needs in terms of infrastructure and energy supply.

Going carbon negative

Microsoft began a PHEV project in Germany roughly three years ago, before the implementation of green incentive schemes. The team discovered the powertrain could be a useful tool when tackling fleet emission targets. However, the PHEVs had to make optimum use of their electric capacities, which meant charging them as often as possible, and not over-using the ICE.

This push to make the most of different environmentally-friendly technologies will be essential for Microsoft as it looks to meet its own green targets. At the start of this year, the computing giant announced it will become carbon negative by 2030, and, by 2050, will have removed all of the environmental carbon it has emitted, either directly or by electrical consumption, since it was founded in 1975.

To combat this, Microsoft is working on a number of measures. It is forming new strategic alliances with existing partners like Shell, to secure supplies of renewable energy. It is extending its internal carbon tax to tackle indirect emissions, as well as electrify its global campus operations vehicle fleet by 2030. How the company goes about acquiring vehicles like these for its fleets involves a rigorous procurement process.

‘We work with a selected number of OEMs,’ explained Michael Pohl, senior procurement engagement manager fleet at Microsoft. ‘We tender them every three to four years, which we just did last year, and now the result is a new setup. With those OEMs, we work closely on our strategy, on discounts, on bonuses, and on agreements.’

‘Some OEMs do offer discounts for electric vehicles, but this is not common, and they are not in the same league as the discounts on standard drivetrains. Of course, every OEM is keen for us to purchase as many electrified cars as possible, because it will help them with their CO2 emissions and potential penalties they have to pay to the EU, but they cannot necessarily deliver the number of cars we would need in a given or required timeframe.’

Essential infrastructure

Fleet Electromobility quote 1

As EV demand builds momentum, OEMs must boost manufacturing processes to keep pace while suppliers incentivise sales. These measures will have to go into overdrive as consumers and fleet managers alike begin to see the long-term benefit of electromobility. One of these benefits is the overall cost of owning an EV.

At the end of September, LeasePlan released its annual Car Cost Index, which reveals the true cost of owning a car, including fuel, depreciation, taxes, insurance and maintenance. EVs in the compact and mid-size segment are fully cost-competitive compared to ICE-powered vehicles in countries including France, Germany, and the UK. Autovista Group analysis also reveals that B-segment and C-segment BEVs are competitive compared to petrol models, albeit only because of government incentives.

‘The good news is that the costs of EVs are coming down and we are seeing the development of a strong second-hand market for quality used EVs,’ said Tex Gunning, CEO of LeasePlan. ‘The bad news is that governments are failing to provide the charging infrastructure necessary to satisfy market demand.’

In a recent blog post, Mathijs van der Goot, global lead on EVs for LeasePlan said, ‘it is essential to ensure that the charging infrastructure is aligned with the flourishing e-mobility market.’ There are currently more than 195,000 public charging in Europe, a rise of over 300% since 2014. But this falls a long way short of how many the industry needs. Last year, LeasePlan called for one million charging stations by 2025 and the European Commission estimates 2.8 million will be required by 2030.

A report filed by Technology intelligence company IDTechEX in September outlines the unique demands fleets could have on EV infrastructure. ‘Although electric fleet charging represents roughly 3% of the total charging infrastructure in volume, it constitutes over 20% of the total market value due to the added cost associated with the high-power requirements,’ the report states.

So, the need for improved charging infrastructure to support fleet electrification is vital, even as EVs become more affordably priced. If fleet managers are going to adopt these vehicles on a wide scale, charging anxiety will need to be tackled alongside shrinking price tags. Subsidies and governmental schemes will help tackle this challenge, but the advancement of charging technology will also play its part. But will this be the only big tech change coming to fleets within the next few years?

Want to know how COVID-19 has impacted fleets? Catch up with the series by reading the first instalment here.

Brexit survey: have your say

There are only 70 days until the UK’s Brexit transition period with the European Union (EU) comes to an end. Currently, there is still no certainty on future trading relationships, or how the UK setting its own regulations will affect businesses and technology developments in the coming years.

Autovista Group wants your views on Brexit, from the impact a ‘no-deal’ would have on the automotive industry in both Europe and the UK, to your opinions on how the two parties have managed the process.

Click here to access our Brexit survey, and tell us how the negotiation uncertainty and the UK leaving the EU is impacting your business and industry.

Modern classics soaring in desirability

Classic car ownership has never been so popular. Many collectors aspire to own popular models like Jaguar’s enigmatic E-Type Lightweight or Ford’s Capri. Whilst gaining ownership of the Capri might at least be possible for some, with price tags starting around £1,000,000, the very special E-Type is out of reach for those on a budget. Even standard E-Type’s have asking prices starting around £50,000, with some currently advertised at more than double that level. Due to COVID-19, there is the potential that an increased volume of classic cars will rotate back into the marketplace, as the economy bites and unemployment rises.

As we look ahead and consider the classic cars of the future, it is worth considering some of the elements that make them appealing in the first place. It helps if they are a good-looking car, and a sporting pedigree often enhances appeal and value. However, possibly more important is that people have an emotional connection with the model. Today, it is increasingly apparent that a special reminder of one’s youth is highly prized.

Finally, the scarcity of a model has a major effect on desirability and value. Strangely, it also helps that many of the cars considered classics today, were not built to a high standard. Due to this, many were destined for early graves at the scrapyard.

In the year 2000, there were 24.4 million cars on UK roads. In 2019, there were nearly 32 million. Interestingly, the proportion of older cars has increased, with just over 2.3 million cars over 13 years of age in 2000, increasing to over 6 million in 2019. Saving old cars of interest has become big business, fuelled by an ever-increasing nostalgia for modern classics. Ford Escorts and Fiestas, Volkswagen Golfs, and Peugeot 205 GTis from the eighties and nineties are highly desirable today.

Glass’s Leisure Vehicles Editor Paul McDonald said, “Following a significant boost in registrations over the last few months, a slow-down in September was not unexpected, as recent growth was partly a result of pent-up demand following lockdown. So, to see the increases continue is great news”.

With the major auction groups continuing to hold only online sales, some buyers continue to be wary about spending substantial amounts of money on vehicles they have seen in person. However, this trust continues to improve as buyers become more accepting of the descriptions provided by the auction houses.

Additional factors affecting the popularity of older cars

By the mid-nineties, car build quality and reliability had improved dramatically whilst the driveability of cars had also taken a step forward. New cars of today continue these improvements, but many people are choosing to look for older, more characterful cars to drive every day. This is not only down to the price, fueling the demand many enthusiasts strive to drive something unique and with historical interest.

There is no definitive age that identifies a classic car. Many hold the view that a modern classic will be at least 15 years of age, and a classic must be at least 25 years old. However, if you use car tax exemption as a guide, then the car needs to be at least 40 years old.   

Many people find driving a modern classic car is without status, which is a very desirable commodity in today’s world. Especially if a modern classic is relatively easy to afford. So, looking ahead, there are models that could already be considered modern classics. It is also worth remembering that with improved build quality more survivors of each vehicle could also affect the future asking prices.

The following examples are all over 15 years of age and remarkably can be bought today for under £1,000. As beauty is in the eye of the beholder, the decision on whether they are a modern classic is yours.

  • 2003       Jaguar S-Type V6 SE Plus                               £999
  • 2003       Mercedes-Benz SLK200 Kompressor              £995
  • 2001       Audi TT 1.8T Quattro 2dr                                 £999
  • 2000       Land Rover Discovery GS                               £995
  • 2004       MG TF 1.8                                                       £990

Automotive industry worries as Brexit no-deal seems likely

With a deadlock in Brexit trade-deal negotiations following the passing of a UK-imposed deadline, both the British and European automotive industries are nervous about the looming threat of a no-deal scenario.

Last week, the UK government signalled that ‘the talks are over’ in regards to a free-trade agreement with the European Union (EU). Prime Minister Boris Johnson added that the country has to ‘get ready’ to trade in 2021 without an agreement, although stopping short of confirming that discussions would not resume. Government television messages are running in the UK warning businesses to get ready for change from 1 January 2021.

While the EU is keen to continue talking, the UK government is now giving businesses in the country warning that the likelihood of any deal is diminishing rapidly, and they should prepare for tariffs and customs checks. For the automotive industry, which relies on competitive pricing and ‘just-in-time’ deliveries, this is a hammer blow – particularly for those companies based in Britain.

Government response

The UK is looking for a ‘Canada-style’ deal. The EU’s agreement with Canada is called the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), which removes most tariffs, but not all, while increasing quotas, meaning more goods can be shipped before tariffs are applied. Instead, it looks likely that an Australian-style deal will be adopted. This means tariffs on imports and exports to and from the EU, together with stricter customs checks at borders.

‘We were totally clear that we wanted nothing more complicated than a Canada-style relationship, based on friendship and free trade,’ Johnson said last week. ‘To judge by the latest EU summit in Brussels, that won’t work for our EU partners. They want the continued ability to control our legislative freedom, our fisheries, in a way that is obviously unacceptable to an independent country.

‘Given that they have refused to negotiate seriously for much of the last few months, and given that this summit appears explicitly to rule out a Canada-style deal, I have concluded that we should get ready for 1 January with arrangements that are more like Australia’s, based on simple principles of global free trade.’

The Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Michael Gove, added: ‘At the end of this year we [the UK] are leaving the EU Single Market and Customs Union and this means there are both new challenges and new opportunities for businesses. Make no mistake, changes are coming in just 75 days and time is running out for businesses to act.

‘It is on all of us to put in the work now so that we can embrace the new opportunities available to an independent trading nation with control of its own borders, territorial waters and laws.’

Automotive outcry

Numerous carmakers and suppliers have stated over pat months that should a no-deal occur, they would seriously consider their manufacturing positions in the UK. In contrast, others have highlighted the problems that such a scenario would pose on importing items into the country.

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) has stated that with tariffs added, the cost of a UK-built car could rise by as much as £2,700 (€3,000). Recently, it was reported that Toyota and Nissan would look for compensation from the UK government should such costs be added, as to export their vehicles for sale in the EU with tariffs added would make them less competitive than those from European-based marques.

Volkswagen has warned that it would be unable to absorb any tariffs placed on vehicle imports. The carmaker has no manufacturing presence in the UK. As the country’s second-largest brand by market share (according to SMMT figures), it is possible the company will look to stockpile vehicles in the country before the end of the transition period.

Responding to the Prime Minister’s statement, Mike Hawes, chief executive of the SMMT, said: ‘Make no mistake, the automotive industry will not prosper from ‘no deal’. It would have a devastating impact on the sector, on the economy, and on jobs in every region of Britain.

‘Businesses have been battling coronavirus at the same time as investing heavily in decarbonisation, all while preparing as best they can for a seismic change in trading conditions come year-end. But to avoid permanent damage, we urge both sides to keep talking, to remain calm but work with renewed vigour on a deal that supports automotive, a sector that is Britain’s biggest exporter of goods and one of the UK and Europe’s most valuable economic assets.’

According to Reuters, when asked about Brexit trade talks at a recent speaking event, Daimler chairman Ola Källenius– said: ‘I am hoping for last-minute common sense,’ before confirming that the company ‘would have to live with tariffs’ and has no plans to open any manufacturing plants in the UK to avoid them.

Bentley chief executive Adrian Hallmark told Reuters that a Brexit no-deal would be ‘extremely damaging’ for the Volkswagen Group-owned luxury carmaker.

‘If you took the duties on components, 45% of the bits we buy in, and the 10% tariff on cars, worst-case scenario, it would take out a significant percentage of our profits,’ he said. ‘(It) would probably ACEA appeals to EU

Furthermore, the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) has written to Brussels urging the EU parliament to ‘reconsider its position’ on a trade deal with the UK, according to the Financial Times

The body’s demands include the EU lowering the percentage of components in a car that must be either European or British for the vehicle to qualify for the benefits of any EU-UK trade deal, a process known as ‘cumulation’. ACEA is also seeking a ‘phase-in period’ of these new rules to help the industry adapt to the changed business environment.

The EU looks unlikely to sanction parts from Japan and Turkey that could count towards ‘local-parts’ figures. Manufacturers with plants based in the UK will need to prove that exported goods are actually British-made, with a specified threshold of British parts. Should the threshold not be met, tariffs will be included on exports, even if a trade deal is in place.

Brussels has proposed that non-UK/non-EU content be limited to 45% of the car, a figure ACEA wants pushed up to 50% ‘in line with the UK’s position.’

Autovista Group is keen to hear your views on Brexit and the effect it will have on both the UK and Europe. Look out for our in-depth Brexit survey launching tomorrow (22 October) and make sure you have your say.

Motorcycle Market Update October 2020

Following a significant year on year registration increase in July and August (up 42% and 32% respectively), data published by the Motorcycle Industry Association (MCIA) shows that registrations grew by a more modest but still impressive 11.7% in September. Six out of the nine sales categories recorded growth with mopeds enjoying the strongest increase, followed by scooters.

Glass’s Leisure Vehicles Editor Paul McDonald said, “Following a significant boost in registrations over the last few months, a slow-down in September was not unexpected, as recent growth was partly a result of pent-up demand following lockdown. So, to see the increases continue is great news”.

With the major auction groups continuing to hold only online sales, some buyers continue to be wary about spending substantial amounts of money on vehicles they have seen in person. However, this trust continues to improve as buyers become more accepting of the descriptions provided by the auction houses.

Engine band highest registered models – September 2020

Power Band Model

0-50cc Lexmoto ECHO PLUS 50
51-125cc Honda CB 125F
126-650cc Royal Enfield INTERCEPTOR INT 650
651-1000cc Yamaha TENERE 700
Over 1000cc BMW R1250 GS ADVENTURE

Data courtesy of the MCIA

The used car retail market is showing similar recovery behaviour to the wholesale market. The key measures – Average Sale Price and Days-to-Sell are both positive. Just like the auction market, their rate of recovery is slowing, suggesting they are approaching their natural level.

Glass’s Live Retail pricing tool reports on the average time a car spends on the forecourt, with lower days to sell indicating higher retail demand. The average for July of 59.1 days is still 30% higher than expected, but in the circumstances is a distinct improvement over June’s average of 81.9 days. If the decreases continue over the coming weeks the value for August will be similar to August 2019.

New motorcycle market

Sales and demand remained buoyant throughout September, although some dealers reported a slow-down towards the end of the month. Concerns remain regarding the economy, especially how additional COVID-19 restrictions will affect the industry moving into 2021. Despite this, given the average riding age of 56, there is optimism that a significant proportion of motorcycle consumers are financially stable enough to support sales momentum moving forward.

What can the industry expect moving forward?

The industry has already demonstrated its resilience with sales and demand exceeding expectations. However, COVID-19 continues to be a major issue. Given this, the outlook for the final quarter of 2020 remains uncertain.  The Glass’s editorial team will continue to monitor all of the market dynamics during the next few months.

Used motorcycle market

With autumn now fully with us, dealers are experiencing a slow-down in enquiries. However, the used market remains remarkably resilient, potentially even more so than new.  With consumers having more time on their hands, saving money not taking holidays and unable to participate in certain hobbies, some dealers hold the view that increased numbers have taken up riding as an alternative, contributing towards recent sales growth.

Top-selling models

For dealers with major cities in their catchment areas, scooters and 125cc machines remain in strong demand, a result of commuters choosing to ride to work as an alternative to public transport. However, demand continues to be largely buoyant across the board, with the adventure and naked segments being particularly strong.  

Stock

Glass’s has received mixed feedback regarding stock availability from dealers. Although there have been improvements, some dealers continue to find locating quality used motorcycle stock a challenge, particularly 125cc machines. Compounding this issue, some riders are choosing to privately sell their old machines rather than part-exchange. However, despite these issues, many larger dealers are currently satisfied with their stock levels.

Sales activity

Sales remained positive into October with no dealers reporting a significant decline. However, with October’s weather becoming more autumnal and the heightened economic uncertainty, many values have been eased back for the November guide, except where trade feedback and evidence from the market place has suggested further adjustment is necessary. Exceptions to this are mopeds, scooters and commuter machines where values have been held.

Used Car Market Update October 2020

Auction Wholesale Market

A degree of stability seems to be returning to the UK used car auction market. Whilst the key measures of First Time Conversion Rate, Percentage of Original Cost New, and Sales Volume Index all dipped slightly in August, they all recovered in September and continue to exceed the figures achieved in the same month last year. Of course, with all the ongoing uncertainty in the world, it is too early to state that we are back to normal, but it is encouraging to see that despite all the challenges the auction market is still performing well.

First time conversion rate graph October 2020
Percentage original cost new graph October 2020

The rapid post-lockdown recovery was, at least in part, driven by a need to re-stock sites and feed pent up retail demand. Virtually every car offered received multiple bids and anything desirable was selling for very strong money. This slowed, and feedback from the market suggests that buyers are becoming a little more selective in what they buy. Desirable retail stock is still selling well at auction, moving quickly and for good money, but the less desirable stock is starting to become harder work. Cars with damage or less appealing specification can struggle to even get a bid, and those that do sell are not achieving the sort of money they would have two to three months ago.

In terms of what is popular, SUVs continue to sell well. Convertible hammer prices are weakening, no doubt due to the change in season, although they are still selling. Despite all the media hype and their apparent popularity in the new market, alternatively fuelled cars continue to challenge vendors in auction channels. This could be because the latest generation vehicles have much longer ranges and quicker charging times than those typically found in the used market, making them appear less desirable and thus perhaps worth less than the vendors may be hoping… Also, the restrictions around leisure activities have meant reduced demand for taxis and minicabs, which have become biased more towards low emission cars in recent years.

Used Retail Market

The used Retail market is also showing signs of stabilising, with the number of sales observations and the average sale price for September being very similar to those in August. The number of observations is still lower than for the same month last year, down just over 10%, but the average sale price is 5.8% higher, even though the average age of the cars sold was 47.5 months, almost 20% higher than the 39.8 months reported for September 2019.

Used car market retail observations graph October 2020
Used car market average sale price October 2020

Glass’s live retail pricing tool GlassNet Radar also shows that the average time a car spends on the forecourt continues to decrease. At 37.7 days it is 8.1% lower than the 41.0 days reported for the same month last year, and a notable 17% improvement over August’s 45.5 days. This is a good indication that there continues to be a healthy retail demand for used cars.

Used car market average days to sell October 2020

Outlook

Taken at face value, the metrics for both the wholesale and retail markets suggest that October will be another promising month. However, we continue to live in uncertain times and the recent lockdown announcements may likely slow down the recovery, especially in those regions that are seeing more stringent conditions. More transactions are now carried out remotely though, not just for the wholesale market but also for retail, and this may lessen that impact. We are also heading into the final few months of the year which traditionally means a slowing down of the market, especially if we have “proper” winter weather. So, as we head into the final quarter of what has been an extraordinary year the only thing we can be certain of is that the used car markets – both wholesale and retail – are as unpredictable as they have been for most of this year. Of course, Glass’s Editorial team will continue to monitor activity and share what they find.

New Car Market Update November 2020

New car registrations in September 2020 had a relatively low bar to clear to show growth over the last couple of years. In 2018, registrations were down by 20.5% on prior year due to regulatory changes surrounding WLTP emissions testing. This led to delayed vehicle certification and caused supply issues leading to registration delays. In September 2019 the market increased a paltry 1.3%, with the introduction of the RDE-2 emissions standard blamed for causing similar issues.

Despite the attraction of the new ‘70’ plate and many strong manufacturer retail and business offers, the data released by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) for September show new car registrations falling by 4.4% compared to last year with a total of 328,041 cars registered. Although a lack of stock and logistics issues may have played a part, this is the lowest September registrations total since the introduction of twice-yearly plate changes in September 2001.

Illustrated in the chart below, the year-to-date total for the year is now down a third versus last year, equating to over 600,000 lost sales.

New car total registrations YTD graph October 2020

Data courtesy of SMMT

As in previous months, Private sales showed greater resilience than the sales in the Fleet and Business sale channels with a small drop of 1.1%. This shows that consumer confidence remains reasonably positive, despite the potential for job losses, whilst the reducing support for companies in the Government job retention scheme is just another impact for Fleets and Businesses as the market comes to terms with the pandemic.

Fleet sales reduced by 5.8% compared to last year to 159,081, while business dropped 31.9%, albeit on very small numbers to just 7,597, as both continue to underperform.

New car market Sales channel split YTD October 2020

Data courtesy of SMMT

This decline is understandable as companies continue to struggle with revenue and profit forecasts making large expenditure commitments such as vehicle fleet renewals a lower priority. This comes at a time when coronavirus cases are growing daily in the UK and Europe whilst the Government continues to increase lockdown measures. In the longer term, the increases in cases and lockdown measures will also affect private sales potentially stalling the economic recovery. Add to this the increasing headwind of Brexit and the outlook remains uncertain.

Battery electric and plug-in hybrid registration grew significantly in September accounting for over 10% of registrations, as new models became available increasing consumer choice. Demand for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) increased by 184.3% compared with September last year and have increased 165.4% year to date.

Sustained recovery across the automotive industry to will require a Brexit solution with minimal tariffs and as close to frictionless trade as possible. Additionally, to meet the Road to Zero aspirations the Government will need to consider increases to incentives and infrastructure support for alternative fuel vehicles to help meet the aggressive targets, whilst giving consumers and businesses the confidence to switch from old engine technologies.

LCV Marketplace Update October 2020

New Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Market

The light commercial vehicle (LCV) sector is proving resilient in these challenging times, however, there is still much to contend with as we move into the last quarter of 2020. From new social distancing measures, redundancies, the end of the furlough scheme and of course Brexit, all will have an effect on the LCV market and the wider economy. The new plate month of September is typically a strong month, this year returning an encouraging 26.4% growth in demand for LCVs. Overall, 52,096 new LCVs hit UK roads during the month, as all sectors bar-one returned increases in registrations. With the coronavirus lockdown easing and businesses back to work, it is encouraging to record a 7.1% growth in the new light commercial vehicle market. This follows four months of double-digit decline. Overall, 27,701 new LCVs were registered during the month, with growth in all but the Vans under 2.0-tonnes sector.

LCV new registrations graph October 2020

The first three quarters of 2020 have seen year-to-date registrations decline by 27.4%, with 208,080 units hitting UK roads (286,616 units – 2019). Breaking the month down by sectors reveals that registrations for pickups, vans between 2.0-2.5 tonnes and vans between 2.5-3.5 tonnes increased by 10.9%, 11.6% and 40.9% respectively. A 2.5% decline for vans under 2.0 tonnes was the only disappointment. It is important to note that these increases are set against a backdrop of a weak September 2019 driven by the introduction of WLTP for LCVs, with September 2020 registrations still 3.3% down on 2018.

Top five LCV registrations

Top 5 LCV registrations table October 2020

For quarter three 2020, the current SMMT LCV registration forecast is down 26.3% to 269,000 units. With the final forecast for 2020 due at the end of October, it is, unfortunately, unlikely to show any improvement over the current forecast.

As we move into October, UK registrations remain nearly 30% down on the same point last year. The pandemic continues to affect many businesses with the stop-start nature of localised lockdowns affecting many towns and cities around the UK. Although September was a positive step in the right direction, it will remain a tall order to meet the current SMMT forecast.

The interconnected nature of the UK economy means that the unknown nature of Brexit and the end of the furlough scheme will bring further uncertainty in the coming months. Moving forward, operators are starting to look more seriously at more environmentally friendly technologies to meet fleet requirements. This will be critical in the crucial role light commercial vehicles play in the UK economy.

September Used Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Overview

The used LCV market continued to deliver outstanding performance during September, with weakness seen only in the minibus sector due to passenger movement restrictions.

Stock shortages driven partly by fewer de-fleets, economic uncertainty and increased demand for used LCVs was the catalyst for the strong month, along with uncertainty over future vehicle supplies. Pent up demand and the volatile world that we currently live in, means that prices are likely to remain high for some time to come.

There seems to be no better time to sell an LCV, with dealers enjoying a buoyant retail market and healthy profits as a result. Rental demand is also high supporting increased home deliveries, with some vehicles earmarked for auction, actually being re-fleeted to meet demand. This trend is likely to increase in the run-up to Christmas.

September in detail

Glass’s auction data results show the overall number of LCV sales in September was up 15.9% versus August 2020 and up a staggering 57.4% versus September 2019. First-time conversions were down slightly at 87.4% compared to 88.0% in August, but up 9.0% versus September last year.

There is a continued appetite for good quality stock requiring the minimum of retail preparation across all ages. Supporting this enthusiasm is the continued high number of online buyers reported by the auction houses. Since March this year, average sales prices have risen over 30%, with September alone recording an 8.3% increase versus August and a 31.2% increase on the same point last year. September prices were at the highest level for the last twelve months.

The average age of sold stock dropped from 72.4 months in August to 69.7 months in September. This figure was 0.9 months higher than the same point last year.

Average mileage for sold vehicles dropped from 73,634 miles in August to 70,457 miles in September. This is the lowest average mileage recorded in the last twelve months and over 10,000 miles less than at the same point last year.

Glass’s continues to monitor the LCV market closely and has an open dialogue with auction houses and manufacturers, leasing and rental companies, independent traders and dealers as well as the main industry bodies. This information, combined with the wealth of knowledge in our CV team ensures Glass’s valuations remain relevant in the market place.

The Van’s Headlights: Mitsubishi Shogun Barbarian

The Van’s Headlights

Our research data for the summer months normally shows a lull in used vehicle activity followed by a flood of activity and increased sales in September. However, the pandemic has seen demand and prices soar through the summer. Closure of manufacturing plants and the effects on the wider economy resulting in delayed fleet replacement cycles used stock shortages and uncertainty over future supply. This has led to a surge in demand for used light commercial vehicles (LCVs) and correspondingly huge increases in conversion rates and average selling prices over the last few months.

In this month’s edition of The Van’s Headlights, the team consider the merits of the Mitsubishi Shogun Barbarian 3.2DI-DC 187bhp Auto Euro 6 SWB Commercial (2015 – 2019).

The Mitsubishi Shogun

The roots of the Mitsubishi Shogun (also known as Pajero and Montero in other markets) can be traced back to 1934, when Mitsubishi’s first 4WD vehicle, the PX33 prototype was built. However, it wasn’t until November 1979 that the Shogun prototype was revealed at the Tokyo Motor Show.

The Mitsubishi Shogun launched as a multi-purpose vehicle in 1982. A completely new genre of 4WD combining off-road toughness and capability with the comfort, handling and specification of a saloon.  Short wheelbase (SWB) and long-wheelbase (LWB) models were available with either 2.6-litre petrol or a 2.5-litre diesel turbo engine. 

Further generations of the Shogun passenger vehicles appeared in 1991 and 1999, but it wasn’t until 2004 that the first commercial variants of the Shogun were introduced in the UK.

Designed with the same reputation for reliability and build quality, the Shogun commercial was available as SWB and LWB vans with two trim levels, Equippe and Classic. With both manual and automatic transmissions available with both featuring the much revered Super Select four-wheel-drive system. The choice of four different driving modes; 2H (2WD high range), 4H (4WD high range), 4HLc (4WD high range with locked centre differential) and 4LLc (4WD low range with locked centre differential) made the Shogun Commercial an ideal choice for those needing to take to rougher terrain.

The 3.2DI-DC 158bhp double overhead camshaft (DOHC) engine was introduced in 2007 improving power, torque and driver comfort.

In 2010, Mitsubishi introduced a Euro 5 compliant 3.2DI-DC DOHC engine, again mated to either a manual or automatic transmission, but this time generating 197bhp with an increase in torque. It was at this time Mitsubishi introduced higher specification Warrior and Barbarian trim levels on the SWB 4×4 van.

A facelift in 2015 saw the introduction of an improved monocoque body with a revised grille for the Shogun Commercial, together with a Euro 6 3.2DI-DC automatic engine generating 187bhp with Mitsubishi discontinuing the manual gearbox in favour of an all-automatic line-up. At the same time, revised suspension improved ride and handling whilst LED lighting improved night time vision. A new spare wheel carrier on the tailgate also featured in this facelift.

The SG2 4Work replaced the Equippe as the entry model and was available as a SWB or LWB model, whilst the halo Warrior and Barbarian trims remained available in SWB formats only. SWB models could tow a maximum of 3.0 tonnes and the LWB SG2, 3.5 tonnes.

A capable all-rounder

Andy Picton, Glass’s Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor recommends the Mitsubishi Shogun Commercial as “an extremely capable and rugged off-road van with great towing capabilities. The Shogun is recognised as a credible alternative to the Land Rover Discovery and is a popular choice with the police and the Highways Agency, as well as in construction and agricultural markets”

Andy added, “Although no longer available new, the Shogun is supported by a strong Mitsubishi dealer network. It has a loyal following in the used market, with buyers attracted to its high specification levels, powerful and torquey 3.2DI-DC engine and its ability to tow up to 3.5 tonnes”.

Peugeot Bipper Professional 1.3HDi 80bhp Euro 6 van (2016 – 2017)

The Mitsubishi Shogun Commercial range

  • Two body styles
  • 5-speed automatic gearbox
  • Three trim levels
  • Euro 6 engine line up
  • Up to 3.5-tonnes towing capability

There were three models in the 2015-2018 Shogun Commercial van range – SG2 4Work, Warrior and Barbarian. All models were powered by the same 3.2DI-DC 187bhp Euro 6 engine, with automatic transmission. A high level of standard specification taken from the car featured in the commercial variant and included, Mitsubishi Active Stability and Traction Control (M-ASTC), ABS brakes with electronic brake-force distribution (EBD), driver and passenger airbags, 18” alloy wheels, heated seats, heated and electric wing mirrors, Bluetooth with music streaming, auto lights and wipers, cruise control and a leather-covered steering wheel.

Additionally, the recommended 2018 Shogun Barbarian SWB Auto added as standard; climate control, black leather heated seats, 20” alloy wheels, Touchscreen DAB radio with MP3 player and USB port, satellite navigation system, reversing camera, steering wheel controls, front fog lights, tyre pressure monitoring system, tailgate privacy glass, alarm and exterior chrome detailing.

Shogun SWB DimensionsShogun SWB Load SpaceShogun SWB Miscellaneous
Length4, 386mmLength840mmGross Vehicle Weight2,665kg
Width1,875mmMax Width1,395mmPayload480kg
Height1,870mmWidth between arches1,395mmWarranty5yrs/62,500m
Wheelbase2,545mmHeight1,105mmService Intervals12,500m
  Volume1.3m3 

2016 Pros2016 Cons
Powerful engine with plenty of torqueThirsty engine
Great off-road capabilitiesDisappointing payload
Good level of standard specificationBattery can fail due to insufficient charge
Responsive and smooth automatic gearboxHigh running costs
Superb Super Select 4WD systemThe single hinged rear door is heavy
 Good all-round visibilityOpening the rear door can be an issue in tight spaces
No AdBlue

Good level of standard safety features
 

Glass’s recommendation

Mitsubishi Shogun Barbarian 3.2DI-DC 187bhp Auto Euro 6 SWB Commercial

Registration Plate: 2018/18

Mileage: 30,000 miles

Glass’s Trade £20,500 Excl VAT

Glass’s Retail £22,800 Excl VAT

Motorcycle Market Update September 2020

Significant year on year increases in motorcycle registrations in July and August are boosting the motorcycle market following the national lockdown. Data published by the Motorcycle Industry Association (MCIA) shows that registrations grew 32% compared to August 2019, with all categories recording an increase. Once again it is the scooter category recording the strongest growth.

Glass’s Leisure Vehicles Editor Paul McDonald said, “After a huge boost in July registrations, further growth was hoped for in August, albeit not quite to the same level.  However, a 32% increase was incredible news. The question today is will this resurgence last in the face of recession and an uncertain UK job market?”

Engine band highest registered models – August 2020

Power Band Model

0-50cc Lexmoto ECHO PLUS 50
51-125cc Honda CB 125F
126-650cc Royal Enfield INTERCEPTOR INT 650
651-1000cc Yamaha TENERE 700
Over 1000cc BMW R1250 GS ADVENTURE

Data courtesy of the MCIA

New market

Sales and demand remained strong throughout August. The main focus continues to be the 125cc and commuter markets, although middle weights and larger machines also did well. However, the main issue is a shortage of new machines, with uncertain factory lead times, and some dealers quoting dates early next year for deliveries of certain models.

What can the industry expect moving forward?

Forecast demand is likely to create challenges for dealers into next year. The Glass’s editorial team will follow the market with interest over the final quarter, as summer turns to autumn and the furlough scheme closes with the inevitability of redundancies. Glass’s view is that while there is a reasonable chance commuter and 125cc sales will remain buoyant for the rest of the year, demand for the higher end of the market could decline more rapidly than typically expected during autumn.

Used Market

Since motorcycle dealers reopened following lockdown, the used market has remained busy with strong sales and enquiries throughout August. However, dealers are starting to experience quieter periods, typical in a ‘normal’ year, with August and September holidays. As increasing numbers of employees return to work they continue to seek alternatives to public transport raising expectations that for the remainder of the year, the commuter market will remain buoyant in the used market too. CBT training centres remain busy, good news for the industry’s future, with the potential of at least some new riders progressing to full licences. With the average rider age now approximately 55, this fresh interest is welcome news.  

Top Selling Models

Scooters and 125cc remain in high demand, driven by the increase in interest from commuters, however, a broad range of machines including higher priced examples continue to enjoy strong demand.

Used Stock

Supply continues to improve due to increased new sales generating more part exchanges. Larger dealers report having a good selection of stock and are satisfied with their stock levels, although it remains challenging sourcing quality scooters and 125cc machines. To supplement part exchanges, most dealers continue to proactively maintain stock levels to match demand.

Sales Activity

Today, the market continues to be buoyant, with autumn approaching and the furlough scheme drawing to a close, the next few months are looking increasingly uncertain. The weather in the first half of September provided excellent riding conditions, growing the chances of an extended sales season. Taking this into account and after some careful consideration, many values have been eased back for the October guide, except where trade feedback and evidence from the market place suggests further adjustments were necessary.  Exceptions to this are mopeds, scooters and commuter machines where values have been held, due to strong demand.

Car Market Overview September 2020

According to registration figures released by the SMMT, the UK’s new car market recorded its seventh monthly decline in August with a 5.8% reduction compared to last year. Fortunately, as August tends to be a low volume month, the reduction equates to only 5,347 units. Year to date, total registrations now sit 39.7% lower than 2019 at 915,615 cars.

There is little prospect of clawing back lost ground due to lockdown. However, September’s plate change could offer some good news if the new ’70-plate’ produces a bumper registration haul and exceeds last year’s total. There are suggestions from the industry that if new car stock allowed, September could record the highest number of registrations ever, due to resurgent demand. This positive market sentiment is incredible for a market so severely affected during the lockdown, however, in reality, COVID-19 related production and logistical related delays will likely rule out a record September.

The used car market continues to outperform last year with auction activity in August remaining strong. The average first-time conversion rate was 82.8% which is almost five percentage points better than in August 2019. Hammer prices remained high in August, exceeding Glass’s Trade values by 2.3%, leading to further increases in Guide values in September. This compares to a reduction in September last year of 2%, underlying how different this year is compared to last.

The buoyant retail market continues to underpin strong trade market conditions. Following the trend since the end of lockdown, average days to sell retail units continued to reduce in August. The average fell to 45 days down from 59 days in July and is now tracking pre-lockdown levels.

Whilst increased new car sales activity through September is expected to generate more part exchanges, it is unlikely that they will hit auction sales in volume until the back end of the month. We, therefore, expect wholesale trading conditions to remain strong throughout September.

New Car Market Update September 2020

The latest figures released by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) showed that registrations in August declined by 5.8%, suggesting another very disappointing month for the industry. However, delving a little deeper into the data suggests that August 2020 is not quite as bad as first impressions show.

The decrease was only 5,347 units compared to 2019, as August is traditionally the lowest volume month of the year. This equates to less than half a per cent of 2019’s total annual sales. Additionally, August’s total of 87,226 units is, in fact, the fifth-highest August since the start of the revised registration frequency back in 2001.

New car market august registrations by year graph 2020

Data courtesy of SMMT

The August sales reductions in the major European markets of France, Germany and Spain were considerably worse, down 19.8%, 20% and 10.1% respectively, despite government-backed incentives in place to stimulate demand, which customers in the UK currently do not enjoy.

Through the sales channels, once again private retail sales performed better than fleet/business with only a 1.7% decline (699 units) on last year, which shows some stability in consumer confidence which is vital for the economy as a whole moving forward. Fleet activity was down 5.5% and Business sales channel dropped 57.9% albeit on a very small total.

Analysing the fuel types shows a similar story, with zero and low emission registrations increasing and gaining market share from petrol and especially diesel. Battery electric cars increased by over 77%, achieving 6.4% of the total sales in August and now stand at almost 5% market share year to date, while pure diesel has declined almost 60% this year.

New car market Fuel split YTD graph September 2020

Data courtesy of SMMT

The top ten best sellers list for the month is back to normality with the Fiesta, Focus, Golf and Corsa all in the top five. However, there is additional good news for Ford as the new Ford Puma small crossover came in fourth place.

Fleet was once again a laggard this month compared to private sales. For the industry to get fully back on track it needs businesses to feel confident with a sustained period of economic improvement after the tumultuous first half of the year. At this point, more businesses will feel confident enough to invest in new car lease contracts.

There are some headwinds including uncertainty over Brexit negotiations on the withdrawal and any new trade deal with the EU. Additionally, the impact from Coronavirus flare-ups this autumn and winter may well force yet more delay on large expenditure commitments by businesses. As noted before, September is a critical month for the car industry and will set the tone for the rest of the year.

Used Car Market Update September 2020

Auction Wholesale Market

As expected, the rate of recovery of the used car market in the UK slowed a little in August. The key metrics of First Time Conversion Rate, Percentage of Original Cost New, and Sales observations Index ended the month lower than for July, although all still performed better than in August 2019. This suggests that “normality”, or what passes for that in these strange times, is returning to the market.

First time conversion rate graph September 2020
Used car market % original cost new graph Septmeber 2020

Taken at face value, the month-on-month reductions may be thought of as a bad thing. However, as with most statistics, it is important to consider a longer-term view. Although auctions remain only online, sale volumes are higher than at the same time last year and the decline from July is minor. There is a degree of “catch up”, but as the whole market was frozen during the lockdown, there is not a particularly large build-up of unsold stock with vendors.

Cars may not have been selling during the lockdown, but at the same time, they were also not being de-fleeted or part-exchanged. The high first-time conversion rate suggests that demand is keeping up with supply. This is supported by the average percentage of original cost new showing that buyers are keen to buy and are prepared to pay good money.

Wholesaler buyer demand

Sales of SUVs and convertibles have been noticeably strong since auctions resumed, the latter helped by the excellent summer weather. One area of the market where the Glass’s Editorial team continues to monitor very closely are alternative fuelled cars, especially battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as demand for these continues to fluctuate every month.

Used Retail Market

The Used Retail Market continues to perform well. The number of observed sales has improved slightly over July but is still lagging behind the same period last year. However, like the wholesale market, the average sale price is notably higher than at the same point last year.

Used car market retail observations graph September 2020
Used car market average sale price graph September 2020

Glass’s Live Retail pricing tool also shows that the average time a car spends on the forecourt continues to decrease and is at virtually the same level as last year – 45.5 days for August 2020 compared with 42.1 days for August 2019. This measure is a good indicator of the level of used car retail demand and the rate of improvement suggests that September’s value should show further improvement.

Used car market average days to sell graph September 2020

September 2020

Despite the challenges resulting from an online-only wholesale market and socially-distanced retailing, it appears that both the wholesale and retail used car markets have largely recovered, or even improved on pre-lockdown levels. Whilst is it tempting to be enthusiastic and positive about their prospects we are still operating in very uncertain times. A second full national lockdown is highly unlikely, although not impossible. However, localised and regional lockdowns are already in use and will continue through to the end of the year, and probably into 2021.

However, there is no harm in a bit of cautious optimism. September brings the new 70-plate and September’s new car registrations may exceed those of March; another example of the way 2020 has been turned upside down by COVID 19. New car registrations generate used car activity. This means that through September, especially the latter part, there are likely to be improvements in the key metrics for both the wholesale and retail markets.

LCV Marketplace Update September 2020

New Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Market

The light commercial vehicle (LCV) sector continues to navigate a period of instability, remaining sensitive to economic changes. The typically quiet month of August returned a disappointing 16.1% decline in demand for new LCVs. Overall, only 19,407 new LCVs hit UK roads during the month, as all sectors returned declines in registrations.

Performance year-to-date has declined 38.6%, with 136,577 units registered during the first seven months of 2020. Although July was an improvement on the same month last year, the initial pent up demand is likely only to mask a fragile market. Breaking the month down by sectors reveals that registrations increased 24.9% for Pickups, 12.0% for Vans between 2.0-2.5 tonnes and 5.4% for Vans between 2.5-3.5 tonnes, whilst Vans under 2.0 tonnes declined 22.0%.

Top five LCV registrations

The latest July SMMT new LCV registrations reforecast for 2020 is down 26.3% to 269,000 units for the year. Lockdown has placed all businesses under great financial pressure, with underlying weakness in the market.

Although there is a gradual improvement in demand, the UK is still a long way off normal. The pandemic has affected many businesses and a second wave of localised lockdowns has not helped.

The interconnected nature of the UK economy means that there is likely to be more uncertainty ahead as the UK grapples with a reduced appetite and business nervousness and the possibility of further regional lockdowns. Moving forward, fleet renewals will be critical to a successful restart and the UKs long-term green recovery given the crucial role light commercial vehicles play.

July Used Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Overview

With auction houses now at near full operational capacity, the used LCV market continues to deliver outstanding performance. Supply shortages and increased demand are keeping prices high at present however, there is a growing caution against the risk of weakening retail demand linked to a possible second spike in COVID-19 and further lockdowns.

Glass’s auction data suggests the number of sales in July were up 14.0% versus July 2019, with first-time conversions increasing for the fourth month in a row.

There is a growing appetite from trade buyers to purchase good quality stock. Sales of Euro 6 light commercial vehicles increased to just under 50% of the overall total in July, with the number of different online buyers increasing as well. Supporting this enthusiasm is data confirming average prices across all ages and sectors have risen 39.0% versus July last year.

July in detail

The average age of sold stock in July rose from 64.8 months in June to 69.5 months. This figure was 3.4 months lower than the same point last year.

Average first-time conversion rates stand at an extraordinary 92.3%, up from 86.5% in June and up from 76.7% 12 months ago.

Average mileage for sold vehicles stands at 71,878 miles, an increase of 2,226 miles on June but nearly 8,500 miles less than July 2019.

Glass’s continues to monitor the LCV market closely and has an open dialogue with auction houses and manufacturers, leasing and rental companies, independent traders and dealers as well as the main industry bodies. This information, combined with the wealth of knowledge in our CV team ensures Glass’s valuations remain relevant in the market place.