Fuel Type: Electric Vehicle (BEV)

UK to cut EV grants and reduce price eligibility

The UK Government is lowering the plug-in vehicle grant offered to consumers buying an electrically-chargeable vehicle (EV). It is also imposing a list-price limit, reducing the number of models eligible for the new incentive amount.

From 18 March, only vehicles priced below £35,000 (€40,906) will qualify In addition, the total amount consumers can claim towards the cost is reduced by £500, to £2,500. The government claims that implementing this lower grant and the price cap can spread the funds available across a larger number of EV sales over a longer period.

The move has been met with disappointment by the country’s automotive industry. With dealerships closed until at least the middle of April due to COVID-19 lockdowns, vehicle sales in the UK have suffered. The government is also pushing forward with plans to ban the sale of internal-combustion engine (ICE) models by 2030. Cutting grants now could hamper both a sales recovery and the adoption of an emerging market.

‘With a stretching 2030 target in place to phase out sales of new petrol and diesel cars and vans, we must avoid sending mixed messages to consumers and businesses. Switching to an electric vehicle still has many barriers, including high upfront costs and availability of reliable charging points,’ commented Matthew Fell, chief UK policy director at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI).

‘The decision to slash the plug-in car grant and the van and truck grant is the wrong move at the wrong time,’ added Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). ‘New battery-electric technology is more expensive than conventional engines, and incentives are essential in making these vehicles affordable to the customer.’

Increasing choice of vehicles

The government states the number of EV models priced under £35,000 has increased by almost 50% since 2019 and that half the models currently on the market will still be eligible for the reduced grant.

According to the government’s website, a total of 36 cars qualify for the new grant. Most of these are in the small and compact-car segments. In its statement, the Department for Transport (DfT) singled out the Hyundai Kona 39kWh and MG ZS EV as examples of ‘family cars’ that are still available with the new £2,500 incentive. However, both these models, and other small SUVs on the list, have a range of around 160 miles. They are not as suitable for long-distance driving.

Those who need to travel long distances are, therefore, being priced out of receiving a grant. The government believes that these models ‘are typically bought by drivers who can afford to switch without a subsidy from taxpayers.’

Reducing emissions

The plug-in vehicle grant scheme was renewed last year, with £582 million of funding available until 2022-2023. It also cut the amount offered to consumers from £5,000 to £3,000 while also introducing a price ceiling of £50,000.

‘Measures to encourage people to switch to electric vehicles are working, with nearly 11% of new cars sold in 2020 having a plug,’ the government states. ‘This was up from just over 3% in 2019 – and battery-electric car sales almost tripled over that same period.’

‘We want as many people as possible to be able to make the switch to electric vehicles as we look to reduce our carbon emissions, strive towards our net-zero ambitions and level up right across the UK,’ commented transport minister Rachel Maclean.

‘The increasing choice of new vehicles, growing demand from customers and rapidly rising number of charge points mean that, while the level of funding remains as high as ever, given soaring demand, we are refocusing our vehicle grants on the more affordable zero-emission vehicles, where most consumers will be looking and where taxpayers’ money will make more of a difference.’

The wrong move

The announcement comes at a time when a vehicle-sales recovery is required following three-and-a-half months of lockdown. The industry is also attempting to transition away from ICE technology. The news of the grants cut has, therefore, been met with disappointment.

Ford’s upcoming Mustang Mach-E, is its first foray into the mass-produced battery-electric vehicle (BEV) market. The model will be priced around £40,000 in the UK, making it ineligible for the government grant. As the country’s market leader, Ford will have hoped for a strong sales performance of its new model. However, with no incentive to purchase, sales may be impacted.

‘Today’s news from the UK Government that plug-in grants for passenger and commercial vehicle customers are being reduced is disappointing and is not conducive to supporting the zero-emissions future we all desire,’ commented Graham Hoare, Ford of Britain chairman.

‘Robust incentives – both purchase and usage incentives – that are consistent over time are essential if we are to encourage consumers to adopt new technologies, not just for all electrics but other technologies too like plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) that pave the way to a zero-emissions future.’

The move could also impact shipments of EVs to the UK when the industry is finding its feet again following Brexit upheaval. Manufacturers could concentrate their production for countries where sales are likely to increase, especially with higher government support.

‘Cutting the grant and eligibility moves the UK even further behind other markets, markets which are increasing their support, making it yet more difficult for the UK to get sufficient supply,’ commented Hawes. ‘This sends the wrong message to the consumer, especially private customers, and to an industry challenged to meet the government’s ambition to be a world leader in the transition to zero-emission mobility.’ 

Mini to go ‘EV-only’ as BMW increases focus on electric

BMW is increasing its focus on new-technology powertrains. The carmaker aims to grow deliveries of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) by 50% annually while also developing hydrogen and eFuel options.

Additionally, BMW has stated that Mini will introduce its last internal combustion engine (ICE) model in 2025. It plans for the marque to become a full-electric offering by 2030. Mini joins the growing list of manufacturers pledging to focus on battery technology. However, like similar multi-brand businesses Volkswagen (VW) Group and Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), BMW Group is keeping its options open when it comes to other zero-carbon propulsion technologies.

During the company’s annual financial performance conference, BMW chairman Oliver Zipse stated that 2023 is a crucial year for the German carmaker in terms of e-mobility. By this time, it plans to have 13 BEV models on the roads, with 90% of the market segments it serves to feature a BEV option.

‘Positioning our BEVs in the high-volume segments will enable us to ramp up quickly and achieve swift market penetration,’ commented Zipse. ‘To this end, we have empowered our structures in recent years. Others focus on individual market segments and niches. We, on the other hand, are taking a targeted approach across all market segments.’

BMW plans for BEV penetration in segments from the compact car to ultra-luxury models. The carmaker could also pull ICE models out of specific segments if it helps to meet various regulations, such as CO2-emission targets and Euro 7 standards. The company is keen, however, to keep an optimal balance between product offerings and profitability.

‘I want to make it quite clear: if demand in certain markets shifts entirely to fully-electric vehicles within the next few years – we will be able to deliver,’ added Zipse.

Increasing EV share

By the end of 2025, BMW states it will have delivered around two million BEV units to customers. The carmaker wants to grow its share of sales appropriated to BEVs in the coming years, aiming for 50% of vehicles sold to be battery electric by 2030.

The carmaker has not committed to going fully electric itself but is following the models set by other automotive groups in designating a brand to focus solely on the technology. Daimler is using Smart, JLR is pitching Jaguar as electric only, while Volkswagen has Bentley going down this route.

By adopting this strategy, carmakers can still appeal to the millions of customers who are not sure about electrically-chargeable vehicles (EVs) while exploring the market with a dedicated electric brand. It also means they can explore other zero-carbon technologies, keeping their options open should one prove better than the other.

For BMW, using the Mini brand as a focus for BEV-only sales is a good move. The marque sold just over 211,000 units in 2019 (the last year of non-COVID impacted sales), a fifth of total group sales. Most of its products sit in the small-car segments, which are likely to be used for local journeys and short-range trips. BMW can leverage interest from the brand to sell-up to premium vehicles when the time is right.

‘Mini is perfect for the city and e-mobility,’ added Zipse. ‘We will be releasing the last model with a combustion-engine variant in 2025. By the early 2030s, Mini will be exclusively fully electric.’

BMW also stated that it would be launching some Rolls Royce models using battery-electric technology in the coming years.

Hydrogen and eFuel

BMW is one of the carmakers committed to exploring hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (FCEVs), with a model scheduled for launch in 2022. The carmaker remains open to exploring other avenues of propulsion as well.

‘As an industry, we will only be able to meet current and future mobility needs with an open-technology approach for all drivetrain forms,’ said Zipse. ‘This includes eFuels as well as hydrogen, which will be an alternative worldwide.

‘Next year, we will be releasing a small series of the BMW i Hydrogen NEXT. We could also imagine it as a production vehicle. That is why we are supporting the creation of the necessary infrastructure here in Germany.’

New-class sustainability

As part of its growth, BMW has set itself three phases to move through. It is currently in phase two and aims to enter the third and final phase in 2025. At this time, the company will launch a ‘new class’ of vehicle development focused on sustainability.

Alongside the increase in BEV sales, the group has set itself clear decarbonisation targets up to 2030. This is across the entire lifecycle of its products, including supply chain, production and end-of-life. In every aspect of theits activities, carbon emissions per vehicle are to be reduced by at least one third compared to 2019.

At the same time, the BMW Group is also cutting back on its use of critical raw materials. It has reduced the cobalt amount in the cathode material for the current fifth-generation battery cells to less than 10% and increased the amount of secondary nickel it uses by up to 50%.

New Car Market Update February 2021

With the UK in lockdown throughout February, it comes as no surprise to see another drop in new car registrations, with dealers having to rely on ‘click and collect’ and telephone transactions only. A total of 51,312 new cars were registered in February, down 35.5% from last year, according to data published by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). Underlining how poor February’s total was, the SMMT reported it was the lowest for the month in 52 years.

February’s deficit was a slight improvement on January’s 39.5% reduction. However, that is little comfort on such a small volume, in what is usually the quietest month of the year for sales, as consumers await the new plate in March.

Plug-in vehicles continued their upward trajectory with Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Plug-in Hybrid (PHEVs) taking a combined 13.0% market share for the month, up from just 5.7% in February 2020. BEV registrations increased by 40.2% to 3,516, and PHEVs by 52.1% to 3,131 as the motor industry continues to improve the choice and supply for consumers.

The contraction in registrations in February was more severe in the retail sector, down 37.3%, while fleet volume was down 33.5%. The fast disappearing business sector fell 56.6% to just 637 units. Over the first two months, the retraction in volume has been even across both private and fleet as shown in the chart below.

Sector Split YTD February 2021

On 22 February, The Prime Minister outlined a roadmap for easing restrictions in England, with non-essential retail, including car showrooms, able to reopen no earlier than 12 April. In Scotland, this is expected from the last week of April. A review of restrictions in Wales conducted on 12 March was expected to announce that non-essential retail would be able to reopen as soon as 15 March, however, although some restrictions were relaxed, non-essential retail will remain close until 12 April. A timetable for easing restrictions in Northern Ireland has not been announced, although a review is planned for 16 March.

Glass’s expects another poor set of results for March 2021, which is usually the busiest month of the year. We may not see a huge percentage drop versus last year as March 2020 heralded the start of the first national lockdown, with dealerships closing towards the end of the month, which impacted registrations.

From April, as the economy opens back up, there is an expectation that we will see pent-up private consumer demand released, together with an uptick in fleet activity as many extended lease contracts end. This will provide a significant boost to registrations for the second quarter, kickstarting dealers 2021 new car campaigns.

VW Group plans for cheaper EV-battery mass production

Volkswagen (VW) Group has presented its technology roadmap for batteries and charging up to 2030. The carmaker has also indicated that by ramping up its plans, jobs will need to be sacrificed.

The OEM will establish six gigafactories in Europe with a total production capacity of 240GWh by 2030. It will also expand its public fast-charging network, having announced cooperation with BP in the UK, Iberdrola in Spain and Enel in Italy.

Its new roadmap aims to significantly reduce both the battery’s complexity and cost, making electrically-chargeable vehicles (EVs) attractive and viable for consumers. At the same time, it will shorten its supply chain and control as much of the EV production of as possible.

‘E-mobility has become core business for us,’ commented Herbert Diess, chairman of the VW Group board. ‘We are now systematically integrating additional stages in the value chain. We secure a long-term pole position in the race for the best battery and best customer experience in the age of zero-emission mobility.’

Manufacturing control

As the market leader in Europe, VW Group knows it is responsible for delivering affordable electromobility as the industry transitions away from internal-combustion engine (ICE) technology. While some carmakers have announced plans to go EV-only, the carmaker is creating a sub-brand for its Volkswagen marque. Stablemate Bentley is choosing to focus on battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), and Porsche is investigating eFuels. All VW Group brands will feature electrification in some way. This means the carmaker will need an excessive amount of batteries, both for BEV and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) models.

‘Together with partners, we want to have a total of six cell factories up and running in Europe by 2030, thus guaranteeing security of supply’, explained Thomas Schmall, VW Group board member for components.

To achieve its aims, VW Group will increase its order of batteries from its supplier Northvolt by €14 billion. It will focus production of premium cells at its factory in Skellefteå, Sweden, which will see manufacturing begin in 2023 and increase gradually to an annual capacity of 40GWh. The carmaker will also purchase outright the joint venture it has with Northvolt for a gigafactory in Salzgitter.

‘Volkswagen is a key investor, customer and partner on the journey ahead, and we will continue to work hard with the goal to provide them with the greenest battery on the planet as they rapidly expand their fleet of electric vehicles,’ said Peter Carlsson, co-founder and CEO of Northvolt.

The company is considering potential sites and partners for the other factories.

Cheaper batteries

As well as increasing production, VW Group wants to lower the cost of batteries, making vehicles more affordable as a result. ‘We aim to reduce the cost and complexity of the battery and at the same time, increase its range and performance,’ added Schmall. ‘This will finally make e-mobility affordable and the dominant drive technology.’

Therefore, by 2023, the company will introduce a ‘unified cell’, which will feature in 80% of all EVs in the group by 2030. This plan will allow the carmaker to introduce different chemistries into a standard battery-cell design, which will reduce costs while ensuring that each model retains a unique power or range attribute.

Further savings will be delivered by optimising the cell type, deploying innovative production methods, and consistent recycling.

VW Group will gradually reduce battery costs in the entry-level segment by up to 50% and in the volume segment by up to 30%. ‘We will use our economies of scale to the benefit of our customers when it comes to the battery too. On average, we will drive down the cost of battery systems to significantly below €100 per kilowatt-hour. This will finally make e-mobility affordable and the dominant drive technology,’ said Schmall.

Expanding charging infrastructure

In order to facilitate mass-adoption of its EVs, the OEM is also looking to expand its fast-charging network and has partnered with local providers in key markets to achieve this.

Along with its partners, the company intends to operate about 18,000 public fast-charging points in Europe by 2025. This represents a five-fold expansion of the fast-charging network compared to today.

The carmaker wants to establish about 8,000 fast-charging points throughout Europe together with BP. With a charging capacity of 150kW, the fast chargers will be installed at 4,000 BP and Aral service stations, with the majority of these in Germany and Great Britain. In cooperation with Iberdrola, Volkswagen will cover the main traffic routes in Spain. In Italy, it will collaborate with Enel to establish a fast-charging network both along motorways and in urban areas. The carmaker will also continue its activities as part of the Ionity joint venture.

Job losses

While the roadmap promises cheaper EVs with increased production, the carmaker is also poised to cut jobs to reduce costs.

In agreement with its works council, the group will freeze its workforce size at the January 2021 level and open up an extensive retirement package. It will offer partial retirement to employees born in 1964, as part of the digital transformation roadmap. It will reopen partial retirement for those born in 1961 and 1962, and launch an early-retirement programme for those born between 1956 to 1960.

‘Disciplined cost management will continue to be necessary to finance the required investments in the future, to remain competitive and, above all, to make it possible to safeguard jobs in the long run,’ commented Gunnar Kilian, chief human resources officer of Volkswagen AG. ‘The measures set out in the guidelines provide the right solution for this. We are strengthening the internal transformation of our workforce and creating jobs in forward-looking areas – through training and targeted external recruitment. For this purpose, we are also increasing our training budget by €40 million to a total of €200 million.’

Based on experience, the company expects up to 900 employees to volunteer for the short-term early-retirement models, with a low four-digit figure for partial retirement.

New Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Market February 2021

The new light commercial vehicle market grew by 22.0% in February. This positive high-level figure includes delayed pipeline orders and is set against the typically quiet month preceding the new March plate. Year-to-date, the light commercial vehicle market is 9.5% up overall versus 2020, with large increases in all sectors except those vans under 2.0 tonnes.

SMMT data indicates that the 17,205 February registration total is 3,102 units more than in February 2020 and is the strongest February on record since 1998 (18,044).

Breaking down the results reveals the only disappointment was a 25.3% registration decline for vans under 2.0 tonnes. Registrations for vans between 2.0-2.5 tonnes increased 9.0% whilst demand from construction and online deliveries saw the between 2.5-3.5 tonne sector improve by 30.0%. The Pickup sector also recorded a 26.8% increase.

The Ford Transit Custom failed to hold on to the number one position, deposed by its big brother, the Ford Transit. Nevertheless, Ford still managed to place four of its product ranges in the top ten.  The Ford Transit in top spot followed by the Ford Transit Custom in second, the Ford Ranger in seventh place and Ford Transit Connect in eighth.

Top five LCV registrations

Top Five LCV Registrations

Capitalising on this registration momentum will be vital as the UK emerges from lockdown with an economic plan that encourages LCV growth and gives businesses confidence to upgrade to cleaner and more sustainable fleets.

The March Budget froze fuel duty rates for an eleventh consecutive year. This is likely to be the last year fleets can expect a freeze, as the Treasury commits to a net-zero emissions target by 2050. The ambitious targets set to address climate change and meet air quality goals mean the fastest way to achieve these goals is to instil business confidence and encourage the take-up of the latest low emission vehicles.

February used Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) overview

  • LCV used market buoyant in February
  • Easing lockdown likely to determine how quickly the economy recovers
  • New stock shortages forcing franchised dealers to source late-plate stock

February has seen the used market in buoyant form overall, with prices remaining strong for anything that can easily be turned around quickly. Even the minibus sector that has struggled over the last 12 months due to COVID restrictions is seeing values firm as buyers look to stock up in readiness for the easing of lockdown regulations. Forward Control vehicles and 4×4 Pick-ups have also seen a performance improvement.

First-time conversion rates remain high for ready-to-retail panel vans, driven mainly by the expanding home shopping market. There has been a noticeable increase in damaged vehicles on offer, with the number of provisional sales increasing as well. With many of these turned into sales after the event, it is only those with damage now avoided by the trade. Demand remained strong for the small numbers of clean, late-year retail stock, forcing those prices ever higher. With a lack of new de-fleet stock to ease supply and demand issues, prices look set to remain high for at least the first half of 2021.

The severe shortage of new stock at dealerships is not only forcing fleets to run their vehicles for longer but is forcing franchised dealers into the used market to source late-year stock. This extra layer of competition for the trade is pushing prices ever higher. On the plus side, the recent lifting of government restrictions on the sale of repossessed vehicles should benefit the used market with an increase in volume over the next few months.

With global vaccinations on the increase, the easing of lockdown measures will determine how quickly the new market recovers, in turn, increasing volume in the used market.

Although sales at auction in February increased by just under 13% compared to January 2021, sales over the same month last year decreased by over 17%. Only 8.5% of those sales were less than 2 years old, whilst nearly a third of all sales were in the 2-4yr old age bracket.

Medium-sized vans again proved the most versatile and popular in the used market, increasing market share in February by 3.5% to 38.5% of all sales, followed by Small vans with 28%.

February in detail

Glass’s auction data shows the overall number of LCV sales in February declined by 12.9% versus January 2021, whilst first-time conversion rates decreased 1.5% to 84.2%.

Average sales prices paid in February increased by a dramatic 5.5% versus January and are now a staggering 36% higher than the same point last year. The average age of sold stock increased slightly from 68.8 months in January to 69 months in February and was 6.8 months younger than the same point last year.

Average mileages also increased from 75,532 miles in January to 79,936 miles in February and was just 311 miles lower than at the same point last year.

Glass’s continues to monitor the LCV market closely and has an open dialogue with auction houses, manufacturers, leasing and rental companies, independent traders and dealers as well as the main industry bodies. This information, combined with the wealth of knowledge in our CV team ensures Glass’s valuations remain relevant in the market place.

Only battery and hydrogen cars to be sold in the UK from 2035

The UK government has published the results of a consultation on banning new fossil-fuel vehicles. The document confirms a phased approach to zero-carbon-only registrations beginning in 2030.

The first step will see new petrol and diesel models banned from sale. Vehicles that can travel a ‘significant’ distance on zero-emission technology, including some hybrids and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), will be sold until 2035. After this point, only zero-carbon technologies, such as battery-electric (BEV) and hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), will be available.

Another consultation later this year will determine what constitutes a ‘significant’ distance that hybrid vehicles need to travel emission-free.

The consultation around the advancement of dates reviewed four key areas of concern over the plans. These included the readiness of the chargepoint infrastructure, the preparedness of the vehicle-manufacturing industry, inadequate battery supply, and the impact on consumers.

Some vehicle manufacturers raised concerns that hydrogen-fuel infrastructure provision had not yet been rolled out to an extent that would stimulate the uptake of FCEVs. These respondents stated that this is particularly important for ensuring all car and van market segments can transition to zero-emission, especially those that may not be suitable for BEVs.

However, in response to these concerns, the government highlighted the various funding schemes in place to increase infrastructure and support manufacturing. It pointed towards a report by the Faraday Institution that suggested 1.6 million BEVs a year would be built in the UK by 2040, with an additional 40,000 jobs created in the sector by 2030.

UK manufacturing

There is a mixed response amongst manufacturers over the future of their UK plants. Nissan and Jaguar Land Rover are dedicated to building BEVs in the country, with the Japanese carmaker bringing battery production to the UK. However, Stellantis is concerned about the UK’s 2030 ban and is in talks with the government to secure funding for the future of Ellesmere Port.

‘As soon as you say that we are going to ban the sales of this kind of car, we will stop investing,’ Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares commented at the launch of the merged automotive group. ‘If we are told that in 2030, internal combustion engines cannot be sold in the UK, which we respect as a decision from the country, then we are not going to invest in ICE anymore because that makes no sense.’

In response to concerns over hydrogen, the consultation response document states: ‘The FCEV and hydrogen refuelling market is in its infancy and government has taken steps to support its growth in the UK. The transport decarbonisation plan will discuss the potential role for hydrogen in decarbonising the transport sector, including road transport.

‘In addition, we have announced plans to publish a hydrogen strategy, which will set out a whole system view of developing the UK hydrogen economy, including how we will work with industry to create 5GW of low-carbon hydrogen production for use across the economy by 2030.’

There was also discussion around eFuels, which can significantly lower the emissions from internal combustion engines. However, the consultation response highlights the unknown nature of emissions from this technology. ‘By 2035, zero must mean zero,’ it states.

Funding round

The UK government is launching a research and development competition for electrically-chargeable vehicle (EV) innovations. Those entering could benefit from a share of £20 million (€23 million) in funding. This comes following the publication of consultation results surrounding a ban on fossil-fuel vehicles from 2030.

The investment fund is part of the government’s drive to ‘build back greener’ following the economic damage inflicted by COVID-19. Technologies that could benefit include zero-emission emergency vehicles, charging technology or battery-recycling schemes. It hopes that the EV design and manufacturing sector could create around 6,000 skilled jobs.

‘Investing in innovation is crucial in decarbonising transport, which is why I’m delighted to see creative zero-emission projects across the UK come to life,’ commented transport secretary Grant Shapps.

‘The funding announced today will help harness some of the brightest talents in the UK tech industry, encouraging businesses to become global leaders in EV innovation, creating jobs and accelerating us towards our net-zero ambitions.’

Innovative ideas

Previous winners of government research investment include a zero-emission ambulance prototype. Designed by ULEMCo, it can reach speeds of 90mph and travel an average of 200 miles a day with zero-emissions. Another successful entrant was Urban Foresight, which used its £3 million share to develop ‘pop-up’ street chargers. These are located in pavements and provide discreet access to charging infrastructure for those without off-street parking.

The uptake of EVs is increasing in the UK. As the technology also plays a crucial role in the government’s ‘Road to Zero’ plans, more needs to be done to support the sale of the technology with new innovations and ease-of-access to infrastructure.

By releasing this latest funding now, the government also hopes to have new ideas and technologies in place in time for its ban on new fossil-fuel vehicles coming into action in 2030.

Video: Europe’s registrations struggle in February but improvements to come

Autovista Group Daily Brief editor Phil Curry discusses the registration figures from Europe’s big five automotive markets. While numbers may be down, the outlook for the whole year is more positive…

To get notifications for all the latest videos, you can subscribe for free to the Autovista Group Daily Brief YouTube channel.

Show notes

Lockdown drives German new-car registrations down by 19% in February

February UK new-car registrations plunge to level of 1959

Significant downturns in European registrations in February

Conditional reopening of German car showrooms

England’s car showrooms to remain closed until 12 April

Podcast: How is European automotive adapting to pandemic and climate-change fallout?

Daily Brief editor Phil Curry and journalist Tom Geggus discuss key activities and developments in the European automotive sector from the past fortnight. These include COVID-19’s effect on the uptake of mobility-as-a-service (MAAS), different fuel types, and autonomous technology.

https://soundcloud.com/autovistagroup/consumers-post-covid-automotive-outlook

Show notes

Cazoo buys Cluno as CaaS options increase

Significant downturns in European registrations in February

Lockdown drives German new-car registrations down by 19% in February

February UK new-car registrations plunge to level of 1959

VW accelerates towards electric and digital future

VW aims for commercialised autonomous systems in 2025

Is it too early to go ‘EV-only’?

Ford to be zero-emission capable in Europe by 2026

Jaguar makes BEV and hydrogen changes on path to net zero

Volvo to go all electric and online by 2030

E-fuels gain awareness as Mazda joins alliance

February UK new-car registrations plunge to level of 1959

The ongoing restrictions on dealership activity resulted in a 35.5% year-on-year decline in new-car registrations in the UK in February 2021. Autovista Group senior data journalist Neil King explores the latest figures and the market outlook.

A total of 51,312 new cars were registered in the UK in January, according to data released by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). The association highlighted that ‘the industry recorded its lowest February uptake since 1959.’

The UK emerged from its second lockdown on 2 December, only to see new regional restrictions imposed from 16 December. Subsequently, national lockdowns in England and Scotland were announced on 5 January, with ongoing restrictions in effect across the rest of the UK too.

There was a modest improvement in the market contraction in February, compared to the 39.5% year-on-year downturn in January. However, there were two fewer working days in the month than in January 2020 and, on an adjusted basis, the decline was therefore greater.

The UK registration figures continue to align with the Autovista Group expectation of a return to year-on-year declines of about 30% in countries where dealers are closed for physical car sales. The downturn in the UK during February, however, is larger than the 19% fall in Germany, where car showrooms are also closed. The contraction is also greater than in France and Italy, although dealers were open in these markets.

The only major European market to suffer more than the UK in February was Spain. Although dealers are open, the country is in a perfect storm, enduring a third wave of the pandemic, a weak economy and a fall in consumer confidence, in addition to the end of the RENOVE scrappage scheme and an increase in car-registration taxes.

EVs challenge diesels

UK registrations of petrol and diesel cars fell by 44.5% and 61.0% respectively, but still held a combined 65.3% share of the market. Registrations of standard hybrids (HEVs) also declined, by 22.8%, but the upward trend for plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) continued, with a 52.1% rise. Moreover, demand for battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) grew by 40.2% and electrically-chargeable vehicles (EVs) accounted for 13.0% of registrations, challenging diesel cars, which gained a 13.2% share.

February 2021 new car registrations SMMT

Source: SMMT

‘However, increasing uptake of these new technologies to the levels required by 2030 remains a mammoth task, with yesterday’s budget proving a missed opportunity given the lack of measures to support the market overall and notably the transition away from pure petrol and diesel cars and vans,’ the SMMT emphasised.

Delayed recovery

On 22 February, UK prime minister Boris Johnson outlined the roadmap for easing restrictions in England, with non-essential retail, including car showrooms, able to reopen no earlier than 12 April. In Scotland, this is expected from the last week of April. The next review of restrictions in Wales is on 12 March, with non-essential retail possibly able to reopen as soon as 15 March. A timetable for easing restrictions in Northern Ireland has not been announced, although a review is planned for 16 March.

Accordingly, Autovista Group’s latest base-case forecast has been lowered to 1.86 million units, equating to 14% improvement in new-car registrations in 2021, with further growth of 11% predicted in 2022. This is predicated upon vaccination progress preventing any further lockdowns in 2021 and new-car deliveries being largely unimpaired by semiconductor shortages and/or post-Brexit border delays. Similarly, the SMMT has revised its market outlook to 1.83 million new-car registrations in 2021, down from the 1.89 million units predicted in January.

In a downside scenario, however, greater disruption to new-car registrations (and supply) is assumed for 2021, further reducing the opportunity to recover losses later in the year. The forecast for this worst-case scenario is for UK new-car registrations to recover by only 10% in 2021, to about 1.79 million units, with further growth of only 9% in 2022.

In a more positive upside scenario, the UK automotive sector will emerge more positively, with dealers quickly returning to full operational capacity to meet increased demand. A less-severe impact on the wider economy would also bolster new-car registrations in 2021 and beyond. In this scenario, the UK new-car market is forecast to grow by 18% in 2021, to over 1.9 million units, and expand by 13% in 2022.

Dealers stifled

Mike Hawes, chief executive of the SMMT, commented; ‘these closures have stifled dealers’ preparations for March with the expectation that this will now be a third, successive dismal ‘new plate month’. Although we have a pathway out of restrictions with rapid vaccine rollout, and proven experience in operating click-and-collect, it is essential that showrooms reopen as soon as possible so the industry can start to build back better, and recover the £23 billion (€26.7 billion) loss from the past year.’

With car showrooms closed in most (and likely all) of the UK until at least 12 April, order intake will continue to be suppressed, further delaying the automotive recovery. An improvement in orders is expected in April, especially with the release of pent-up demand, but is unlikely to translate into significantly healthier registration volumes until May. Autovista Group estimates that the extended lockdown in the UK will result in the loss of approximately 200,000 new-car registrations between January and April, most of which will not rematerialise later in the year.

The Van’s Headlights: The Life and Times of a British Conglomerate

Successive UK politicians continue a generational battle to keep Britain’s homegrown manufacturing alive, even while pure economics would have consigned them to history many times over.

One particular manufacturing company that had more problems than many over the years, with name changes, mergers and buyouts rarely improving its profit forecast was the British powerhouse of British Leyland Motor Corporation Ltd (BLMC). In this article, Glass’s Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor, Andy Picton, takes a potted look at BLMC’s struggles with light commercial vehicles (LCVs).

History

BLMC formed in 1968 with the merger of British Motor Holdings (BMH) and Leyland Motor Corporation (LMC) and encouraged by the Wilson Labour Government (1964–1970), created an automotive group with a 40% UK market share. At its peak, BLMC owned nearly 40 different manufacturing plants across the UK.

Even before the merger, the BMH stable of marques competed with “badge engineered” cars and LCVs. The merger added more internal competition from the LMC marques. What followed was a story of ineffectual management, poor product design and quality, serious industrial relations problems and the 1973 oil crisis. Combined, this resulted in an unmanageable, financially crippled behemoth heading towards bankruptcy. The company’s 1970’s legacy created an infamous monument to the industrial turmoil of the period.

Many vehicles including LCVs were badge-engineering exercises offered under different brand names including Austin and Morris. For LCVs, this policy remained until 1970 when the Morris J4 and Austin 250JU became Austin-Morris products.

By the early 1970s, the outdated vans were rapidly losing ground to the Ford Transit and Bedford CF. Plans were put in motion to build and launch a new van that would equal the competition. The all-new Sherpa launched in late 1974, with both Leyland and Austin Morris badging.

Despite containing profitable marques such as Jaguar, Rover and Land Rover, as well as the best-selling Mini, British Leyland had a troubled history, leading to its eventual bankruptcy in 1975 and subsequent part-nationalisation.

The Wilson/Callaghan Labour Government (1974–1979) took control, creating a new holding company named British Leyland Limited (BL) of which the government was the major shareholder. The company was now organised into the following three divisions:

  • Leyland Cars
    • The largest UK car manufacturer
    • 128,000 employees
    • 36 locations
    • Production capacity one million vehicles per year
  • Leyland Truck and Bus
    • The largest commercial and passenger vehicle manufacturer in the UK
    • 31,000 employees
    • 12 locations
    • Production 38,000 trucks, 8,000 buses and 19,000 tractors per year
  • Leyland Special Products
    • A miscellaneous collection of acquired businesses

By 1977, all vans were sold under the Morris brand. A further change saw the Sherpa move into the Land Rover division in 1981, under the newly created Freight Rover brand.

By this time the Sherpa van was unsurprisingly dating quickly against the competition. Sales of the Transit far outstripped the Sherpa, whilst imported vehicles from Volkswagen, Fiat, Citroen, Renault and Iveco were gaining a foothold in the market.

Freight Rover

With the Sherpa under its wing. Freight Rover commissioned the K2 facelift in 1982 renaming it the 200. In 1986 the company introduced the wider bodied 300 van and chassis derivatives opening previously untapped sales opportunities.

Success followed and Freight Rover was moved into the Leyland Trucks Division. With improving profitability, the Freight Rover business caught the eye of General Motors in 1986. At this point, they made a bid to buy both the truck division and Land Rover from BL. The deal was vetoed by the British Government because they did not want to sell the iconic Land Rover brand to the American company. Although the truck division was still available for sale, GM’s interest waned and Dutch company, DAF Trucks, secured the purchase the following year.

DAF Trucks/Leyland DAF

The trucks were manufactured in Eindhoven, Holland and Leyland, Lancashire whilst the 200 and renamed 400 Series continued production in Washwood Heath, Birmingham. Both the trucks and vans were sold under the Leyland DAF banner in the UK.

By early 1988 planning for a much-needed replacement for the ageing 200/400 Series was progressing. With limited product development capabilities in-house, the styling of the new standard width and the wide-bodied van was outsourced to the Bertone design house in Italy.

The management team were not convinced the Bertone styling worked, with Leyland DAF wanting more of a family look between the vehicles. The work was outsourced again, this time to MGA, the designers who had worked on the K2 facelift and high roof versions. By the summer of 1988, with sketches completed, MGA produced clay models and then full-size prototypes codenamed LDV201 and LDV202

An overall lack of finances at Leyland DAF at this time, combined with strong sales of the 200/400 series  – 13,234 sales and a 15.6% market share in 1992 – meant the company was under pressure to launch the new van range. Increasing costs meant the new project would be mothballed until Renault was brought in to partner the programme in 1989. Sadly, a lack of direction saw the whole project cancelled by Leyland DAF in 1993, deciding to develop the existing Sherpa models instead.

The proposed facelift did not see the light of day, as continued financial difficulties forced Leyland DAF to file for bankruptcy later that year.

Renault

With agreement sought from DAF, Renault took over the entire development. Recognising that their current Master van was ageing, the LDV201/202 programme was abandoned in favour of a single model that would be the basis for their new Master range of light commercials.

In 1995, Renault signed an agreement with Iveco to help develop a cab for the second generation Master, Mascott and third-generation Daily models. However, due to rising costs, General Motors Europe was brought in as another partner. The second-generation Master was launched in 1997, with rebadged GM versions of the Opel/Vauxhall Movano and alliance partner, the Nissan Interstar launching the following year. The third generation Iveco Daily also shared many panels and cab components, including the doors. Named International Van of the Year (IVOTY) in 1998, a facelift followed in 2003, with an all-new model debuting in 2010. It too was sold by Vauxhall and Nissan, with the latter promoted as the NV400.

GAZ Group

At the same time, the collapse of the project also allowed the International Automotive Design (IAD) Group, which had been engineering the vehicle for LDV, to join forces with Gorkovsky Avtomobilny Zavod (GAZ) Group of Russia. IAD used many of the existing features to develop the bodywork design and new independent front axle suspension of the old LDV201 for the all-new GAZ Gazelle van, pick-up and minibus range.

The GAZ Gazelle went into production on the 20th July 1994, with the first vehicles rolling off the production line on the 26th of August 1994. The Gazelle has gone on to be synonymous with light commercial vehicles in Russia and other Eastern European countries selling over one million units by August 2005.

Popularity has continued to grow, with GAZ now employing over 40,000 staff and operating 13 production sites in Russia as well as assembly facilities in Turkey and Kazakhstan. The Gazelle is now sold in 40 countries across Europe, Scandinavia, Latin America, Africa, Asia and the Middle East. By 2015, annual production had increased to nearly 69,000 units.

LDV Limited

Back in the UK, the Leyland DAF van business was sold off in 1996 and LDV Limited was formed. Both the 200 and the 400 were given facelifts and renamed the Pilot and the Convoy respectively. The Pilot was available in 1.9t, 2.2t and 2.6t gross vehicle weights, while the Convoy was available in 2.8t, 3.1t and 3.5t low roof (City), high roof (Hi-Loader) and Chassis variants.

The easy to maintain vehicles made them popular with operators such as Royal Mail, the Police and local authorities, with the Convoy achieving a market share of 10.5% by the end of 1998.

Although selling well, it was clear that the Pilot and Convoy origins which harked back to 1974 were completely out of date and out of tune with the current marketplace. A joint development programme was signed with Daewoo in 1998 with a plan to quadruple output to 80,000 units by 2005.

The Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998 hit Daewoo hard and the partnership with LDV ended in November 2000, when the Korean car manufacturer went into receivership. The replacements for Convoy, codenamed LD100 and the Pilot BD100 replacement, were dead in the water before they had started.

Not to be deterred, LDV dropped the BD100 and purchased the rights to the LD100 from Daewoo moving 6,000 tons of tooling by road and rail from Daewoo’s factory in Lublin, Poland to the Washwood Heath and the LDV Maxus was born.

Available in two wheelbases and three roof heights at either 2.8t, 3.2t or 3.5t GVW, the VM Motori powered 2.5TD engine with outputs of 95bhp, 120bhp and 135bhp, launched in February 2005.

The front-wheel-drive LDV Maxus received good reviews and was a regular sight in National grid, Royal Mail, AA and British police force liveries, being awarded Professional Van and Light Truck Magazine “Van of the Year 2005”.

However, the additional costs of ‘going it alone’ put LDV under further financial pressure, eventually going into administration later in 2005. US investors Sun Capital bought the company, only to sell them on to the Russian van maker, GAZ Group in July 2006.

Plans to expand production in Birmingham, add new product lines and enter new markets were announced. GAZ also planned to produce vehicles in Russia and sell an additional 50,000 units annually worldwide. However, due to the global financial crisis in 2008 and a lack of investment, these plans never materialised.

Production ceased at the Birmingham factory in December 2008 when a last-ditch attempt to save LDV by the British Government and WestStar Corporation failed.

Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC)

LDV continued to sell its existing stock and the entity was sold in 2010 to the Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC).

The van continued in production and was manufactured under the MAXUS name for the Chinese market and selected left-hand drive markets in Europe, whilst with help of distributors The Harris Group, the same range was launched in late 2015 as the LDV V80 and EV80 for the UK, Ireland and right hand drive Europe.

As the MAXUS brand has grown globally and as its products became more established, the decision was made to realign the companies. As a result, LDV rebranded as MAXUS in 2020, coinciding with the launch of two new models; the all-new Deliver 9 diesel range replacing the V80/EV80 and the all-new small electric van, the e-Deliver 3. The e-Deliver 9 electric van launched at the end of 2020.

The remarketing risk of EVs

The remarketing of electrically-chargeable vehicles (EVs) is examined by Autovista Group experts in our latest webinar. The mixed approach across Europe to provide stimuli for EV sales is paying off, with forecasters predicting a 40% market share for the technology by 2030. Does the increase in registrations trigger new remarketing risks? The panel considers whether the increasing sales of EVs will impact RV performance over the next three years. It also looks at potential differences in risk between BEV and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs).

You can view the entire webinar below, or download the slide deck here.

Autovista Group will be running a number of webinars looking at automotive trends this year. To be notified of upcoming events, subscribe to the Autovista Group Daily Brief.

Podcast: How does electric impact residual values and used-car strategies?

The Autovista Group Daily Brief team takes a look at some of the biggest automotive trends of the past fortnight. Phil Curry, Neil King and Tom Geggus discuss electrically-chargeable vehicle residual values, electromobility strategies and modular electric platforms.

https://soundcloud.com/autovistagroup/electrified-rvs-strategies-and-platforms

Show notes

Surging demand for new BEVs mounts pressure on residual values

France invests €100 million in EV-charging infrastructure

Call for one million public EV chargers in the EU by 2024

Ford to be zero-emission capable in Europe by 2026

Jaguar makes BEV and hydrogen changes on path to net zero

REE maps out UK engineering centre

Shell to transform into net-zero energy provider by 2050

Video: How can carmakers attract investment?

Autovista Group chief economist Dr Christof Engelskirchen and director of automotive agency Car Design Research, Sam Livingstone, discuss how investors value car-producing technology companies above traditional OEMs. As more new entrants come into the automotive industry, what options do traditional players have to engage and attract investment?

To get notifications for all the latest videos, you can subscribe for free to the Autovista Group Daily Brief YouTube channel.

European battery supply chain boosted by two new projects

As battery-electric vehicles (BEV) move from the realms of alternative fuel to mainstream automotive technology, the supply chain for the critical component, the battery, needs to be shortened.

Currently, the industry relies on shipments from Asia. To maintain efficiency and reliability of supply as the production of BEVs increases within Europe, a closer network of gigafactories is required. In recent days, announcements suggest efforts are being made to establish a European supply network, saving the industry from potential issues, as seen with the recent semiconductor shortage.

A new company, Italvolt, will establish a gigafactory in Italy, with the first phase of the project scheduled for completion by 2024. Lars Carlstrom, former founder and shareholder of the Britishvolt project created the new company.

Italvolt states that its factory will employ around 4,000 people and be the largest in Europe, with an initial capacity of 45GWh, increasing to 70GWh. The 300,000m2 facility will be built in a yet-to-be-determined location in the country, with investment projected at €4 billion.

‘With the gigafactory project, Italvolt wants to give an important answer to the historic opportunity of green industrialisation, which is affecting all production sectors in a transversal way, representing a turning point for the global economy,’ commented Carlstrom.

The company states that demand for batteries in Europe, primarily driven by the automotive market, will hit 565GWh by 2030, behind only China, with an expected demand of 1,548GWh. Locating its factory in Italy gives it access to another market area, with carmakers such as Stellantis manufacturing in the country.

UK ambition

Following Brexit uncertainty, the UK has seen a swathe of announcements in recent months that have boosted the country’s automotive industry. Vehicle electrification is driving these investments, with the aforementioned Britishvolt project and news that Nissan will bring battery manufacturing to the country.

There could now be a third project that would see a gigafactory developed in Coventry, with the city’s council entering a partnership with the owners of Coventry Airport.

The joint venture partners will develop proposals and submit an outline planning application for a gigafactory in 2021. This will take place alongside regional discussions with battery suppliers and automotive manufacturers to secure the long-term investment.

The UK’s West Midlands area is home to several carmakers, including Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), BMW, and LEVC and Aston Martin Lagonda. The UK government has made up to £500 million (€577 million) available for investment in a battery-manufacturing facility, and the area will be tendering a bid for funding from this pool.

‘Coventry has emerged as a world leader in battery technology,’ said George Duggins, Coventry City Council leader. ‘The city is home to the UK Battery Industrialisation Centre, world-leading research institutions, and the UK’s largest carmaker, JLR, and it is clear to me that Coventry is the right location.

‘Coventry Airport sits at the heart of this powerful automotive research cluster and is the obvious location for a UK gigafactory. It will immediately plug in to a mature automotive supply chain and skills eco-system.’

The plans will have been boosted by news that JLR is to transition its Jaguar brand to a BEV-only marque by 2025, while Land Rover will launch six new battery models, with manufacturing centred in the UK. A supply of batteries on their doorstep would make sense, cutting delivery times and improving the carbon footprint of their BEVs with reduced shipping.

Jaguar makes BEV and hydrogen changes on path to net zero

Jaguar is to become an electric-only brand by 2025, as part of parent company Jaguar Land Rover’s (JLR) plans to be a zero-carbon business by 2039.

As part of a new strategy, presented by CEO Thierry Bolloré, JLR has set a path for a sustainable future. The Reimagine plan will see Land Rover produce six battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) in the next five years, with the first variant arriving in 2024. Jaguar will transition all models to BEVs by the middle of the decade.

The carmaker is looking to achieve net-zero carbon emissions across its supply-chain, products and operations by 2039. As part of this, JLR is preparing for the expected adoption of fuel-cell technology, in line with a maturing of the hydrogen economy.  Fuel-cell prototypes are set to be seen on UK roads in the next 12 months as part of a long-term investment programme.

‘Jaguar Land Rover is unique in the global automotive industry,’ commented Bolloré. ‘Designers of peerless models, an unrivalled understanding of the future luxury needs of its customers, emotionally rich brand equity, a spirit of Britishness and unrivalled access to leading global players in technology and sustainability within the wider Tata Group.

‘We are harnessing those ingredients today to reimagine the business, the two brands and the customer experience of tomorrow. The Reimagine strategy allows us to enhance and celebrate that uniqueness like never before. Together, we can design an even more sustainable and positive impact on the world around us.’

JLR will make an annual commitment of around £2.5 billion (€2.9 billion) to the plan, including investments in electrification technologies and the development of connected services to enhance the customer experience.

Underpinnings

Land Rover will use its forthcoming modular longitudinal architecture (MLA) platform for upcoming hybrid and BEV models, while also using the company’s electric modular architecture (EMA). Jaguar will build future models on a platform designed exclusively for pure-electric models.

This is part of a plan to consolidate platforms across the business, allowing JLR to focus on efficiency in production and quality of the finished product. It will also help to rationalise sourcing and accelerate investments in the supply chain.

The announcement also included confirmation that JLR will continue to build vehicles in the UK. Its plant in Solihull will become home to Jaguar’s BEV models, while also manufacturing the MLA. The replacement of the current Jaguar XJ model will also not be pursued. With its West Midlands plant geared up for BEV production, it is likely JLR’s site at Castle Bromwich will be repurposed.

The company will substantially reduce and rationalise its non-manufacturing infrastructure. Its executive team and other management functions will move to its Gaydon site to aid cooperation.

Show of faith

The move is good news for the UK automotive industry, which is finding its feet again after years of Brexit uncertainty. JLR’s commitment to the country follows Nissan’s announcement that it will invest in its Sunderland plant and bring battery manufacturing to the country.

‘The news that the UK’s largest automotive business has confirmed its long-term commitment to the UK is very welcome and is an injection of confidence into the wider sector,’ commented Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). ‘Its roadmap to a future that is built around sustainability, with electrified and hydrogen models as well as investment in connected and digital technologies, aligns with government ambition and increasing consumer expectations.

‘Delivering this ambition, however, will require the UK to improve its competitiveness. The UK automotive industry is essentially strong, innovative and agile, but the global competition is fierce. The UK government must ensure advanced manufacturing has its full support, with a policy framework and plan for growth that reduces costs, accelerates domestic battery production and electrified supply chains, and incentivises R&D and skills development. Every effort must be made to create conditions that will enable the entire sector to flourish.’

Electric future

JLR’s decision to turn its Jaguar brand into an electric-only marque is in line with an industry that is starting to fully embrace the zero-emission technology after years of development. The timescale, stopping the sale of internal combustion engines in around four years, may sound ambitious. However, Jaguar already has a BEV model on the market, the I-Pace, while it has also shortened the number of non-electric models it offers in recent years as part of financial cutbacks.

Therefore, the company is ideally placed to make this announcement with such a short timeline. It will hope that it can achieve these targets before its main rivals, including Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz, and therefore take advantage of shifting consumer attitudes towards luxury BEVs.

The move to bring hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles to test this year also shows the company’s proactive thinking. With electric drivetrains moving from development to production, carmakers now have space to consider the alternative fuel. Hydrogen can produce the range and refuelling times of internal combustion engines, while also producing zero emissions. The technology is already used by Toyota and Hyundai.  JLR partner BMW is planning to bring a hydrogen model to market next year.

Used Car Market Update January 2021

Used Car Auction Wholesale Market

Whilst online shopping has become increasingly popular in the UK over the last few years, 2020 substantially accelerated this to the point that some households have been making most, or even all of their purchases via the internet. This has extended to the buying of cars, both new and used, with several companies launching operations offering this service. Because the sale of used cars has changed from being a largely “physical” process to a “virtual” one, the used car market has not suffered as drastically as may have been feared when lockdown was first introduced in March 2020.

As a result of this, the used car auction market had a relatively positive start to 2021 despite Lockdown-3, with improvements in both the first time conversion rate and sales volume. A first time conversion rate of 77.8% was 7.5% higher than in December, whilst sales volume was significantly higher – not that unusual given December is traditionally quiet, but a good result given it was not clear how long the current lockdown would continue.

First time conversion rate graph Jan 2021

The Glass’s Editorial team reported that buyer trends were similar to those observed in December, with lower graded cars continuing to struggle to achieve decent prices, or to even receive any bids at all. One interesting development was that the hammer prices of convertibles improved as the month progressed, even though much of the country was under snow!

Used Car Retail Market

With the country being in lockdown, and with no clear indication how long it would last, it was reasonable to expect used car retail sales for January to be relatively steady, and the figures suggest they generally were. The number of sales and their average value were very close to December’s results, at 100.2% and 99.1% respectively, and whilst the number of observations was generally lower in 2020, the overall trend for the average sale price was upwards. Remarkably, the average age of the cars was also virtually the same as for December – 49.5 months for January versus 49.4 months for December.

Used Car Retail Market Observations Graph - January 2020 to January 2021
Used car market average sale price graph January 2021

Glass’s live retail pricing tool GlassNet Radar includes data on the length of time cars spend on the forecourt before selling, and it reported that the average duration for January 2021 was 51.7 days. This was six days longer than in December, but that degree of increase is not unusual given the delays caused by the festive season and is only a little higher than the 49.9 days reported for January 2020.

Used car market average days to sell graph January 2021

Outlook

It is likely that the current lockdown will continue through to the beginning of March at least, so it is reasonable to expect that February’s used car wholesale and retail markets will perform in a similar fashion to January. Should there be an announcement of an easing of restrictions towards the end of the month, it may promote a surge in activity, especially in the auction market, but it is unlikely to lift the retail sector much, if at all, until those changes come into effect.

January 2021: New car registrations

With Lockdown-3 in full force dampening the spread of COVID-19, inevitably January new car registrations suffered. Although retailers have created ‘click and collect’ processes to maintain a level of sales, customers still prefer to see vehicles before they buy. It came as no surprise to see registrations falling 39.5% versus January 2020 (already down 7.3% versus January 2019). According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), total registrations for January stood at 90,249 cars, the worst start to a new car market for 51 years.

Demand was subdued for both the private and fleet sectors, with registrations down 38.5% to 37,946 and 39.7% to 51,002 respectively, while the small business sector was down 56% to just 1,301.

January 2020-2021 sector split graph

Data courtesy of SMMT

Pure diesel registrations fell 62.1% compared to last year to just 11,083 units. This is a collapse of 86% from their peak January 2016 figure of 82,311, even when you add the mild-hybrid diesel registrations of 6,221, a total of 17,304 is a decline of 79% from the high point.                                                                                                                                             

Despite the gloomy picture, there are some bright points. The SMMT reports that new emissions figures show 2020 registrations are the cleanest vehicles in history, with average CO2 emissions falling by 11.8% on the previous year. January registration figures also show battery electric vehicles (BEVs) increasing by 54.4% to 6,260 with a market share of 6.9%. Plug-in hybrid (PHEV) registrations also rose in January by 28% to 6,124 units.

The chart below compares the alternative fuel vehicle (AFV) volume in January 2021 with the prior year.

AFV Registration Comparison Graph

Data courtesy of SMMT

Looking ahead, February is usually the quietest month of the year for registrations with consumers preferring to wait until the new plate in March. This February will be no different, with an expectation for another fall in registrations as the nationwide lockdown will not be lifted until the beginning of March at the earliest. If the vaccine roll-out success continues and COVID-19 cases continue their rapid decline, then showrooms will reopen improving consumer confidence, translating into an upswing in business in the second quarter and beyond.   

New Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Market January 2021

The results for January show an overall positive start for 2021. However, this positivity masks large declines in all sectors except large vans. This sector single-handedly drove demand during January.

SMMT registration data indicates the LCV market grew by 2.0% in January. The 24,029 registrations, was 472 units more than in January 2020 and was the highest January volume since 1990 (24,094).

Breaking down the results reveals the only highlight was a 25.4% registration increase for vans between 2.5-3.5 tonnes. Registrations for vans under 2.0 tonnes declined 50.1% whilst vans between 2.0-2.5 tonnes declined 16.2%. Whilst pickup registrations declined by 25.8%, 533 new plug-in battery-electric LCVs joining UK roads, increasing the BEV market fuel type share to 2.22%.

Top five LCV registrations

Top five LCV registrations table Jan 2021

Brexit

The pandemic continues to affect the whole UK economy. While the UK automotive industry avoided tariffs following Brexit, the Rules of Origin (RoO) requirements hidden within the new legislation are creating new barriers to trade.

Before 1 January 2021, automotive products legally made in the UK could be sold anywhere in the UK and the EU. From 1 January 2021, automotive manufacturers must provide proof that at least 40% of the value of the parts in a finished vehicle exported to the EU originated in the UK. This threshold climbs to 45% in 2023 and 55% in 2027.

With increasing battery-electric vehicle production, the need for domestic battery production is vitally important. Without this, OEMs are less likely to invest in the UK.

The future must involve measures that can deliver long-term changes in the industry. With ambitious targets set to address climate change and air quality goals, the fastest way to achieve these goals is to instil business confidence and encourage the take-up of the latest low emission vehicles.

January used Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) overview

The first half of January saw the usual seasonal slowdown, with conversion rates and prices easing in line with some of the older and higher mileage stock on offer. Demand remained strong for the cleanest retail stock, with the shortage of later plate Euro 6 vehicles forcing prices ever higher. With a lack of new de-fleet stock to ease supply and demand issues, prices look set to remain high for at least the first half of 2021.

With new vehicle production still below pre-pandemic levels, there is a severe shortage of stock, which is forcing fleets to run their vehicles for longer. As we move through the year, the rollout of the global vaccination programme and the easing of lockdown measures will determine how quickly the new market recovers, in turn, increasing volume in the used market.

With the recent lifting of government restrictions on the sale of repossessed vehicles, the used market should benefit from an increase in volume over the next few months.

Although sales at auction in January decreased compared to January 2020, conversion rates over the period increased by 2.7%. To highlight the shortage of late-year stock in the marketplace at present, only 6.5% of all vehicles sold during the month were less than 2 years old, whilst Euro 5 stock made up just under 31%.

Medium-sized vans again proved the most versatile and popular in the used market, accounting for over 35% of all sales, followed by Small vans with 30%.

January in detail

Glass’s auction data shows the overall number of LCV sales in January declined by 30.5% versus December 2020, whilst first-time conversions remained steady at 85.7% (85.9% – December).

Average sales prices paid in January increased by 8.2% versus December and were over 33% higher than the same point last year. January’s prices were the highest in the last twelve months and 3.5% higher than the previous best recorded in October. The average age of sold stock decreased from 72 months in December to 68.8 months in January and was 6.6 months younger than the same point last year.

In line with sales of younger vehicles, average mileages also decreased from 78,005 miles in December to 75,532 miles in January and were nearly 6,200 miles lower than at the same point last year.

Glass’s continues to monitor the LCV market closely and has an open dialogue with auction houses, manufacturers, leasing and rental companies, independent traders and dealers as well as the main industry bodies. This information, combined with the wealth of knowledge in our CV team ensures Glass’s valuations remain relevant in the market place.

Podcast: Jumpstarting 2021 – registrations, electromobility and shows

The Autovista Group Daily Brief team takes a look into some of the biggest automotive news stories of the past fortnight. Phil Curry and Tom Geggus discuss January’s new-car registrations, how carmakers like Ford, Hyundai, and Daimler are tackling electromobility, and whether there should be automotive shows this year.

https://soundcloud.com/autovistagroup/kickstarting-2021-registrations-electromobility-and-motor-shows

You can listen and subscribe to receive podcasts direct to your mobile device, or browse through previous episodes, on Apple, Spotify, Google Podcasts and search for Autovista Group Podcast on Amazon Music.

Show notes

EU new-car registrations to start recovery in second half of 2021

Deceptively shaky start to 2021 new-car registrations across Europe

Germany: new-car registrations down 31% in January

UK new-car market suffers ‘worst start to the year since 1970’

EVs make great strides across European markets in 2020

Ford trebles size of UK EV-charging network

Hyundai boosts zero-emission mobility

Daimler to become Mercedes-Benz as it spins off truck business

Will there be a physical motor show in 2021?

Glass’s predictions for 2021

The Automotive Industry might have thought they’d seen it all in 2020. But the market fluctuations were merely a preview of what’s to come in 2021.

Just to take a quick look back, the car and LCV markets gave everyone a scare in 2020 when they bottomed during the first lockdown. But then the market reopened and surged forward until the year-end. Glass’s Predictions video for 2021 discusses the car and LCV markets and what our expectations are for both the new and used vehicles. Anthony Machin, Glass’s Head of Content and Product, hosts the video and discusses the way forward for automotive over the course of this year.

This video includes:

  • New and used car Predictions for 2021
  • New and used LCV Predictions for 2021