Fuel Type: Petrol

Used Car Market Update January 2021

Used Car Auction Wholesale Market

Whilst online shopping has become increasingly popular in the UK over the last few years, 2020 substantially accelerated this to the point that some households have been making most, or even all of their purchases via the internet. This has extended to the buying of cars, both new and used, with several companies launching operations offering this service. Because the sale of used cars has changed from being a largely “physical” process to a “virtual” one, the used car market has not suffered as drastically as may have been feared when lockdown was first introduced in March 2020.

As a result of this, the used car auction market had a relatively positive start to 2021 despite Lockdown-3, with improvements in both the first time conversion rate and sales volume. A first time conversion rate of 77.8% was 7.5% higher than in December, whilst sales volume was significantly higher – not that unusual given December is traditionally quiet, but a good result given it was not clear how long the current lockdown would continue.

First time conversion rate graph Jan 2021

The Glass’s Editorial team reported that buyer trends were similar to those observed in December, with lower graded cars continuing to struggle to achieve decent prices, or to even receive any bids at all. One interesting development was that the hammer prices of convertibles improved as the month progressed, even though much of the country was under snow!

Used Car Retail Market

With the country being in lockdown, and with no clear indication how long it would last, it was reasonable to expect used car retail sales for January to be relatively steady, and the figures suggest they generally were. The number of sales and their average value were very close to December’s results, at 100.2% and 99.1% respectively, and whilst the number of observations was generally lower in 2020, the overall trend for the average sale price was upwards. Remarkably, the average age of the cars was also virtually the same as for December – 49.5 months for January versus 49.4 months for December.

Used car market average sale price graph January 2021

Glass’s live retail pricing tool GlassNet Radar includes data on the length of time cars spend on the forecourt before selling, and it reported that the average duration for January 2021 was 51.7 days. This was six days longer than in December, but that degree of increase is not unusual given the delays caused by the festive season and is only a little higher than the 49.9 days reported for January 2020.

Used car market average days to sell graph January 2021

Outlook

It is likely that the current lockdown will continue through to the beginning of March at least, so it is reasonable to expect that February’s used car wholesale and retail markets will perform in a similar fashion to January. Should there be an announcement of an easing of restrictions towards the end of the month, it may promote a surge in activity, especially in the auction market, but it is unlikely to lift the retail sector much, if at all, until those changes come into effect.

Launch Report: Hyundai Tucson – bolder and roomier

The new Hyundai Tucson has an assertive and bold design, with its front face combining the headlights and grille. The 3D rear-light signature echoes the progressive triangular headlight design and two-tone colour personalisation is now possible. As the new Tucson is longer and wider, it is roomier and more practical than its predecessor and has a large boot.

The modern and refined digital cockpit, featuring a flush-fitting 10-inch screen, is standard across the range and there is also a digital TFT screen directly in front of the driver. The materials, trim and build quality are all good and there are numerous ADAS and safety features, including a central airbag between the two front seats. A neat touch is the blind-spot monitoring system, which shows a digital feed from the left or right side of the car, depending on which direction is indicated.

The Tucson is offered with mild-hybrid (MHEV) petrol and diesel engines or as a full hybrid-electric vehicle (HEV), and a plug-in hybrid (PHEV) version will be available too. The trim lines are well composed and there are relatively few options, leading to well-equipped used cars.

With the leap forward in quality and roominess compared to its predecessor, the Tucson has the potential to attract a wider selection of consumers. The HEV version may present an attractive business proposition for buyers who are not yet ready to plug in.

Click here or on the image below to read Autovista Group’s benchmarking of the Hyundai Tucson in France, Germany and the UK. The interactive launch report presents new prices, forecast residual values and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis.

Launch Report Hyundai Tucson February 2021

January 2021: New car registrations

With Lockdown-3 in full force dampening the spread of COVID-19, inevitably January new car registrations suffered. Although retailers have created ‘click and collect’ processes to maintain a level of sales, customers still prefer to see vehicles before they buy. It came as no surprise to see registrations falling 39.5% versus January 2020 (already down 7.3% versus January 2019). According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), total registrations for January stood at 90,249 cars, the worst start to a new car market for 51 years.

Demand was subdued for both the private and fleet sectors, with registrations down 38.5% to 37,946 and 39.7% to 51,002 respectively, while the small business sector was down 56% to just 1,301.

Data courtesy of SMMT

Pure diesel registrations fell 62.1% compared to last year to just 11,083 units. This is a collapse of 86% from their peak January 2016 figure of 82,311, even when you add the mild-hybrid diesel registrations of 6,221, a total of 17,304 is a decline of 79% from the high point.

Despite the gloomy picture, there are some bright points. The SMMT reports that new emissions figures show 2020 registrations are the cleanest vehicles in history, with average CO2 emissions falling by 11.8% on the previous year. January registration figures also show battery electric vehicles (BEVs) increasing by 54.4% to 6,260 with a market share of 6.9%. Plug-in hybrid (PHEV) registrations also rose in January by 28% to 6,124 units.

The chart below compares the alternative fuel vehicle (AFV) volume in January 2021 with the prior year.

Data courtesy of SMMT

Looking ahead, February is usually the quietest month of the year for registrations with consumers preferring to wait until the new plate in March. This February will be no different, with an expectation for another fall in registrations as the nationwide lockdown will not be lifted until the beginning of March at the earliest. If the vaccine roll-out success continues and COVID-19 cases continue their rapid decline, then showrooms will reopen improving consumer confidence, translating into an upswing in business in the second quarter and beyond.

New Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Market January 2021

The results for January show an overall positive start for 2021. However, this positivity masks large declines in all sectors except large vans. This sector single-handedly drove demand during January.

SMMT registration data indicates the LCV market grew by 2.0% in January. The 24,029 registrations, was 472 units more than in January 2020 and was the highest January volume since 1990 (24,094).

Breaking down the results reveals the only highlight was a 25.4% registration increase for vans between 2.5-3.5 tonnes. Registrations for vans under 2.0 tonnes declined 50.1% whilst vans between 2.0-2.5 tonnes declined 16.2%. Whilst pickup registrations declined by 25.8%, 533 new plug-in battery-electric LCVs joining UK roads, increasing the BEV market fuel type share to 2.22%.

Top five LCV registrations

Brexit

The pandemic continues to affect the whole UK economy. While the UK automotive industry avoided tariffs following Brexit, the Rules of Origin (RoO) requirements hidden within the new legislation are creating new barriers to trade.

Before 1 January 2021, automotive products legally made in the UK could be sold anywhere in the UK and the EU. From 1 January 2021, automotive manufacturers must provide proof that at least 40% of the value of the parts in a finished vehicle exported to the EU originated in the UK. This threshold climbs to 45% in 2023 and 55% in 2027.

With increasing battery-electric vehicle production, the need for domestic battery production is vitally important. Without this, OEMs are less likely to invest in the UK.

The future must involve measures that can deliver long-term changes in the industry. With ambitious targets set to address climate change and air quality goals, the fastest way to achieve these goals is to instil business confidence and encourage the take-up of the latest low emission vehicles.

January used Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) overview

The first half of January saw the usual seasonal slowdown, with conversion rates and prices easing in line with some of the older and higher mileage stock on offer. Demand remained strong for the cleanest retail stock, with the shortage of later plate Euro 6 vehicles forcing prices ever higher. With a lack of new de-fleet stock to ease supply and demand issues, prices look set to remain high for at least the first half of 2021.

With new vehicle production still below pre-pandemic levels, there is a severe shortage of stock, which is forcing fleets to run their vehicles for longer. As we move through the year, the rollout of the global vaccination programme and the easing of lockdown measures will determine how quickly the new market recovers, in turn, increasing volume in the used market.

With the recent lifting of government restrictions on the sale of repossessed vehicles, the used market should benefit from an increase in volume over the next few months.

Although sales at auction in January decreased compared to January 2020, conversion rates over the period increased by 2.7%. To highlight the shortage of late-year stock in the marketplace at present, only 6.5% of all vehicles sold during the month were less than 2 years old, whilst Euro 5 stock made up just under 31%.

Medium-sized vans again proved the most versatile and popular in the used market, accounting for over 35% of all sales, followed by Small vans with 30%.

January in detail

Glass’s auction data shows the overall number of LCV sales in January declined by 30.5% versus December 2020, whilst first-time conversions remained steady at 85.7% (85.9% – December).

Average sales prices paid in January increased by 8.2% versus December and were over 33% higher than the same point last year. January’s prices were the highest in the last twelve months and 3.5% higher than the previous best recorded in October. The average age of sold stock decreased from 72 months in December to 68.8 months in January and was 6.6 months younger than the same point last year.

In line with sales of younger vehicles, average mileages also decreased from 78,005 miles in December to 75,532 miles in January and were nearly 6,200 miles lower than at the same point last year.

Glass’s continues to monitor the LCV market closely and has an open dialogue with auction houses, manufacturers, leasing and rental companies, independent traders and dealers as well as the main industry bodies. This information, combined with the wealth of knowledge in our CV team ensures Glass’s valuations remain relevant in the market place.

Glass’s predictions for 2021

The Automotive Industry might have thought they’d seen it all in 2020. But the market fluctuations were merely a preview of what’s to come in 2021.

Just to take a quick look back, the car and LCV markets gave everyone a scare in 2020 when they bottomed during the first lockdown. But then the market reopened and surged forward until the year-end. Glass’s Predictions video for 2021 discusses the car and LCV markets and what our expectations are for both the new and used vehicles. Anthony Machin, Glass’s Head of Content and Product, hosts the video and discusses the way forward for automotive over the course of this year.

This video includes:

New and used car Predictions for 2021
New and used LCV Predictions for 2021

E-volution

The Quiet BEV-olution

The UK Government has an ambitious plan to stop the sale of new cars and Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV) with pure internal combustion engines. Originally due to come into force in 2040, the Government has brought forward the ban to 2030. Between 2030 and 2035, new cars and vans can be sold with internal combustion engines if they can drive a significant distance with zero emissions (for example, plug-in hybrids or full hybrids), and this will be defined through consultation.

Although other vehicles, such as motorcycles and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (HCV), will eventually switch to less polluting fuels, for the moment they are not subject to the current government plans. In itself, this is interesting as there are cleaner alternatives to diesel including natural gas, battery-electric and fuel-cell electric. For the two-wheel market, while there is a growing selection of electric machines on sale, the move to battery-electric is still in its infancy.

With favourable company car taxation and an ever-growing selection of new models on offer with new technologies removing range anxiety, the battery-electric car revolution is gathering pace. In the used car market, work is ongoing to support the development of the used electric vehicle sales with further studies around the cost of ownership and usability of these vehicles.

The E-volving Used Market

Today, there are around 7,500 used battery-electric cars available to buy on the UK’s market-leading online advertising portal. Just fifteen months ago, when Glass’s conducted the same search, the number was just 1,500.

Used car buyers are starting to see EVs as an affordable option compared to traditional petrol, diesel and hybrid alternatives. According to dealers, the current sweet spot for many consumers buying used cars is around £5,995.

For consumers ready for the move to an EV at this price level, currently, there are just two models to choose from in any volume. These are the Renault Zoe and Nissan’s Leaf. Dealer forecourt prices start around £4,200 for a ten-year-old Leaf, but then there is often a battery lease cost on top of that starting at £80 a month. For some people, this is around what they might spend on fuel each month. Therefore, a low mileage user has to look very closely at other costs when switching to battery-electric, including the zero price road fund license, lower servicing costs and lower fuel costs. Some users will switch to enjoy the knowledge that they are reducing emissions in their neighbourhood, however many are unwilling to make such a gesture and still state range anxiety as a reason not to switch.

Residual value development

As one of the longest-running volume EVs in the UK, the Nissan Leaf is a good example to analyse used pricing trends. With a new model Leaf launched in 2018, there was a notable increase in first-generation used examples hitting the market through part-exchange. Despite a significant increase in volume, the average residual value of a five-year example increased. The following chart shows Glass’s trade value for the Nissan Leaf expressed as a percentage of original cost new price. This increase in value is due to a general increase in interest in EVs throughout 2019. This intensified further at the beginning of 2020 before levelling out as COVID-19 made its presence felt.

Average RV% of a 5yr old Nissan Leaf graph

Glass’s editors will continue to keep a close eye on the EV market, paying particular attention to the significant number of cars expected to enter used car channels over the next three years. New EV sales have risen sharply to company car users over the past 12 months, fuelled by the attractive benefit-in-kind tax rates. With few current incentives available for used EV buyers, there is concern that when these cars come to the end of their contracts, supply may outstrip demand, negatively impacting residual values.

Germany: new-car registrations down 31% in January

New-car registrations fell by 31.1% in Germany during January compared with the same month in 2020. A total of 169,754 passenger cars were registered according to the latest figures from the country’s automotive authority, the Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (KBA).

This aligns with the Autovista Group expectation of a return to year-on-year declines of about 30% in countries where dealers were closed for physical sales. Germany is the largest European market affected in January, with the restrictions currently in place until 14 February.

The German market was also hampered by the return to a 19% VAT rate since 1 January 2021, which had been reduced to 16% from 1 July to 31 December 2020. Autovista Group estimates that this change advanced about 40,000 new-car registrations into December 2020, when the market rose 9.9% compared to the previous reporting period. Furthermore, the shortage of semiconductors will have invariably disrupted some new cars’ deliveries in the country last month.

New-car registrations, Germany, y-o-y % change, January 2020 to January 2021

Source: KBA

There were two fewer working days in January 2021 than in January last year. On a comparable working-day basis, Autovista Group estimates that registrations fell by about 23% in the last month, and annualised new-car demand was at 2.94 million units. As in France, Spain and Italy, the start to 2021 of Germany’s new-car market has been deceptively shaky.

Given the mitigating factors in January, this bodes relatively well for the German market, which Autovista Group currently forecasts will recover to 3.15 million units in 2021, 8% up on 2020. This is at the same level as the German automotive industry association VDA forecasts. However, the VDA rightly highlighted that 2021 will still be ‘significantly lower than the approximately 3.5 million new registrations of the years 2017 to 2019.’

‘We assume that the second half of 2021 will bring an improvement, if the progress in vaccination is so great that the pandemic can be noticeably contained in everyday life,’ commented VDA president Hildegard Müller. This echoes the EU-wide sentiment expressed by the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA). ‘The year 2021 will decide the future of the industry in Germany and Europe. We are at a turning point that will set the direction for the following decades,’ Müller added.

Brands and segments

German brands reflected January’s negative performance. Audi (down 47.4%), Mini (down 41.5%), and Ford (down 41.1%) saw the most significant declines. Meanwhile, Porsche posted the smallest losses, with a drop of 3.9%. Volkswagen maintained the largest market share, of 20.1%.

Among the imported brands, Tesla and Volvo exceeded their registration results for the same reporting period in 2020, up 23.4% and 9.4% respectively. In contrast, declines of more than 70% were seen at Jaguar and Honda (down 77.9% and 70.1% respectively), while Fiat recorded the smallest decrease of 14.8%. Skoda was the strongest imported brand for market share, with 6.7% of registrations.

Motorhomes were the only segment to achieve growth, of 5%, to capture a market share of 1.9%. Meanwhile, small MPVs saw the most severe decline at 63.6%, and full-size MPVs fell 55.3%, sports cars slumped by 43.2% and utility vehicles dropped by 42%. SUVs were the strongest segment with 21.9% of the market, despite a decrease of 26.4%, followed by the compact segment with a 19.1% share, down 32.2%.

Fuel types

Registrations of petrol-powered cars fell by half (50.3%) in January 2021 compared to the previous reporting period, taking 37.1% of the market. Diesel also dropped by 44.8%, representing just over a quarter of new cars (26.1%). In contrast, electrically-chargeable vehicles (EVs) saw year-on-year growth of 117.8%, with a total of 16,315 new units registered, taking their share to 9.6%.

Some 45,449 hybrids were registered in January, up 47.5%, while securing 26.8% of the market. A total of 20,588 plug-in hybrid units were registered in January, up 138.3%, with a 12.1% share. Natural gas (259) and liquefied gas (340) only accounted for 0.2% of the market last month, recording a combined decrease of 35.5%. The average CO2 emissions of newly registered cars was 125.9 g/km, representing a decrease of 16.9%.

The tipping balance towards EVs, and away from internal combustion engines (ICE), follows on from a trend recorded last year. In 2020, alternative drives made up of hybrid, fuel-cell, gas, hydrogen, and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), claimed approximately a quarter of all new-car registrations. The German government set out COVID-19 recovery plans as a springboard towards a greener economy, with a greater emphasis on electromobility. In November, it committed a €4 billion stimulus package to the automotive sector, with funds channelled into the adaptation of production lines and incentivising the purchase of EVs.

Automatic Revolution Update

The automatic revolution

Historically, automatic gearboxes were a rare beast on cars in the UK, usually reserved for the larger prestigious cars of the day, like a Jaguar or Rolls Royce. They were expensive options and did not suit smaller, low power vehicles. Often considered sluggish, they usually had three gears and delivered poor fuel economy compared to a manual. They also tended to be expensive to repair, and had a reputation of being labelled as ‘not a true driver’s car’.

Times have changed, now automatics frequently have more gears than their manual counterparts, can be more economical, and many have racing-style steering wheel paddle shifters delivering a sportier more dynamic drive, when and if required.

Improving technology – increasing registrations

The chart below displays new car registration data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). The data shows registrations before 2018 favouring manual over automatic transmissions with registrations of automatic transmissions gradually increasing in market share from the start of the millennium to one in four cars by 2012. Since then the growth has been much faster, to the point where more than half of the cars registered in 2020 were automatic.

Automatic transmissions have gained ground against manual transmissions as technology has improved. Additionally, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hybrids are generally only offered with automatic transmissions. Taking account of electrified vehicle registrations and their year-on-year market share increases, the trend towards automatic transmissions will continue to grow.

UK car registration share by gearbox type graph

How have residual values fared over a similar timeframe?

The chart below shows the average residual value of three-year-old cars split by manual and automatic gearboxes, displayed as a percentage of original cost new price.

3 year old residual value % of cost new graph

Throughout the time frame in the chart above, there has nearly always been a premium for automatics. However, over recent years this RV premium has grown from around 2% to 4%, the exception being the Global Financial Crisis where markets including used cars were in turmoil. This trend is also seen in older cars, as shown in the chart below.

7 year old residual value percentage of cost new graph

Why has there been an increase?

Over the last twenty years, the sophistication and quality of automatic gearboxes continue to improve. These gearboxes are now available across almost all makes and models, and this improved choice has helped fuel the increase in registrations. Indeed, as mentioned before some automatics are more efficient and produce less CO2 than their manual counterparts, meaning lower Benefit-In-Kind taxation. In recent years, the increasing popularity and supply of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) such as BEVs and hybrids also supports the switch from manual gearboxes.

Another reason automatics are increasing in popularity is the cost. The expense of an automatic option is now lower in percentage terms, against cost new price, compared to 20 years ago. This, therefore, boosts residual value percentages, especially when in high demand as they are today.

Underlining the increase in demand for automatics, driving habits continue to change. According to data published by the DVLA, under 4% of automatic-only driving tests were taken 13 years ago, this has now increased to nearly 10%.

More choice, improved technology, increasing penetration of Alternative Fueled Vehicles, combined with increasing traffic congestion, makes choosing an automatic more compelling than ever. Taking account of limited used wholesale supply, the Glass’s team believes automatic values will remain strong.

The Van’s Headlights: The Rise Of The MAXUS Brand

This month the Van’s Headlights looks at a commercial vehicle brand that is relatively new in its current form to the UK. It is catching the eye, not only with its latest vehicles but also with what is in the pipeline.

Although the name MAXUS may be new to a lot of people, its origins are deeply rooted in UK manufacturing history with links that can be traced back to 1896.

Background

In 1896, two local families founded the Lancashire Steam Motor Company in the town of Leyland, Lancashire. The company was renamed Leyland Motors in 1907 and later became the Leyland Motor Corporation (LMC), as they diversified into the manufacture of petrol-driven trucks, buses and electric trolleybuses. The company expanded further into car manufacturing, acquiring Triumph and Rover in 1960 and 1967. In 1968 LMC merged with British Motor Holdings to become British Leyland Motor Corporation (BLMC) with the company holding a 40% market share.

Although BLMC held household marques such as Mini, Jaguar, Rover and Land Rover within the group, management was poor, leading to its eventual collapse and part nationalisation in 1975. It was at this time that BLMC was restructured and renamed British Leyland. The company went through further name changes to BL Plc in 1978 and then The Rover Group Plc in 1986. By this time, marques including Austin, MG, Freight Rover and Leyland Trucks were part of the group as well as the dormant trademarks of Triumph, Morris, Wolseley, Riley and Alvis.

In 1987, Freight Rover and the Leyland Trucks division were sold to Dutch company DAF Trucks which was renamed DAF NV in 1989. The trucks were manufactured in Eindhoven and Leyland and the vans in Washwood Heath, Birmingham and sold under the Leyland DAF banner in the UK.

Following a management buyout in 1993, the Leyland DAF Van (LDV) company was formed. LDV produced the 200 and 400 Series and then the Pilot and Convoy until 2004 when, after several years in the making, the production of the all-new Maxus started. The new project was originally meant to be a joint venture between LDV and Daewoo, however, Daewoo went into liquidation in 2000.

LDV soldiered on moving 6,000 tons of tooling from the Daewoo plant in Poland transferring it to Birmingham by road and rail to reduce costs. The Maxus eventually launched in 2004, but with the additional costs, LDV came under further financial pressure and went into administration briefly the following year. The company was saved in 2005 when US investors Sun Capital bought them.

In July 2006, Sun Capital sold LDV to the Russian van maker, Gorkovsky Avtomobilny Zavod (GAZ) Group with a plan to expand production in Birmingham by adding new product lines and entering new markets. GAZ also planned to produce vehicles in Russia and sell an additional 50,000 units annually worldwide. However, due to the global financial crisis in 2008 and a lack of investment, GAZs plans never materialised.

Production ceased at the Birmingham factory in December 2008 when a last-ditch attempt to save LDV by the British Government and WestStar Corporation failed. LDV continued to sell its existing stock but was sold in 2010 to the Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC).

Renamed as the MAXUS V80 for the Chinese market and selected left-hand drive markets in Europe, the range was re-launched with only minor cosmetic upgrades.

In 2015, The Dublin-based Harris Group secured the distribution rights to the MAXUS in the UK, Ireland, Channel Islands, Isle of Man, Malta and Cyprus. Utilising the strong historical links with the brand in these markets, the V80 diesel range and the EV80 electric variant were sold as LDV badged products.

Acclaim for LDV grew over the next five years, winning the Greenfleet LCV Manufacturer of the Year Award last year, whilst the EV80 also won the Motor Transport Clean Fleet Van of the Year.

It was also last year that SAIC revitalised the brand. Now distributing their products to almost 50 countries and regions across the globe, LDV was rebranded as MAXUS across right-hand drive Europe in a global realignment with the rest of the group. This change coincided with the launch of two new ranges that MAXUS hope will underpin the brand’s future.

If further proof was needed, Harris has confirmed its commitment to growing MAXUS operations in the UK by announcing its plans to open a headquarters during 2021. Housing MAXUS’S UK employees, the new head office in Birchwood Park, Warrington will offer warehousing and a parts depot as well as office space.

The current offering

The all-new Deliver 9 van range replaces the outgoing V80 and EV80 models, with both diesel and eDeliver 9 electric van and chassis variants available as part of the range. The smaller eDeliver 3 all-electric van range is available as a van and platform cab and designed to compete in the urban delivery market.

Huge investments in development, technology, specification and quality secures the MAXUS range as a genuine challenger to the established brands.

eDeliver 3	Deliver 9	eDeliver 9
– Vans and platform cab – Short and long wheelbases – Aluminium and polymer composite construction – Two battery options – 35kWh and 52.5kWh – Up to 151-mile range – WLTP combined – 5-80% rapid charge in 45 minutes – 7kW home charger gives 80% charge in 10 hours – Maximum 6.3cu.m. load space – Cruise control – Infotainment system – Comprehensive comfort and safety features – Payloads up to 1,200kg – 5yr/60,000-mile vehicle warranty – 8yr battery warranty – Priced from £24,000 plus VAT, after Plug-in Van Grant (PiVG)	– Short, Medium and long wheelbases at 3,500kg GVW – Vans and derivatives plus custom vehicle conversions – Two trim levels – New 2.0-litre 163bhp Euro 6d compliant diesel engines – Comprehensive comfort and safety features – Infotainment system – Ample storage, cup holders – Load volume between 8.1cu.m.-12.3cu.m. – Payloads up to 1,520kg – 5yr/125,000-mile warranty – Priced from £27,150 plus VAT	– Medium and long wheelbases at 3,500kg GVW (optional 4,050kg upgrade) – Vans and derivatives plus custom vehicle conversions – Choice of three battery options – 51.5kWh, 72kWh and 88.55kWh – Range between 112 miles and 185 miles – WLTP combined – AC and DC charging as standard – 5-80% rapid charge in 45 minutes. 100% in 80 mins. – 7kW home charger gives 80% charge in 10 hours – Maximum 11cu.m. load space – Payloads up to 1,200kg – 5yr/60,000-mile vehicle warranty – 8yr battery warranty – Priced from £55,000 plus VAT, after Plug-in Van Grant (PiVG)

The Future

The future looks bright for SAIC. The largest automotive group in China, they currently employ almost 100,000 staff and produce almost seven million cars, vans, pickups, motorhomes and trucks each year.

The next vehicle to be brought in under the MAXUS banner is muted to be the T70 2.0TCDI diesel pickup, which again will be supported by a 5yr/125,000-mile warranty. There is also a T70 electric pickup available in home markets with a stated range of 535km (330 miles) and an 80% charging time of 36 minutes.

The 2020 Chengdu Auto Show saw the new MAXUS pickup officially revealed. Powered not only by a twin bi-turbo diesel engine generating 510Nm of torque, the aggressively styled pickup will also be powered by pure electric, hybrid, and fuel cell technology. The interior will feature twin screens with multimedia and 5G technology and a high level of specification.

In September last year, SAIC announced that they had created Jieqing Technology Co to provide fuel cells and engineering services for the automotive industry. The plan is to research, develop and sell in the region of 10,000 hydrogen vehicles per year and to exceed 30,000 units globally by 2025. The world’s first hydrogen fuel cell MPV called the MAXUS EUNIQ 7 has been launched in China, with its third-generation autonomous fuel cell technology being applied to future light and heavy trucks, buses and other commercial vehicles.

SAIC has the vision to be at the forefront of the automotive industry promoting new energy vehicles and technologies and is currently work closely with the Chinese Government, Shanghai Municipal Government and Shanghai Airport Group to improve the economic efficiency of hydrogen fuel production, storage and transportation. There are also plans for a new hydrogen infrastructure that will include over 1,000 hydrogen filling stations by 2030.

Vendor opportunities at online sales

One of the biggest step-changes in vehicle remarketing happened in 2020 as a result of COVID-19. To keep the used car market moving throughout lockdown, auction companies switched to an online-only sales model. Whilst nothing new for some companies in the sector, for most auctions, online business only accounted for a part of their sales. Whilst online buyer numbers have grown in recent years, full engagement was not predicted in the short term, with a significant hardcore of buyers still preferring to attend physically so they could touch and personally inspect the stock on offer for themselves.

The result was surprising, strong online buyer engagement from the start. This grew quickly to the point where some auction groups are not planning to recommence physical auctions, as online-only has proved so successful. In the current climate with the COVID-19 pandemic dominating the way we live our lives, it is perhaps understandable that buyers will not want to mix with others in auction halls. Additionally many have seen the benefit of being able to access multiple sales across the country on the same day, increasing the pool of stock they can choose from, rather than committing to attend one physical site. Not to mention buyers no longer need to travel and stand in what can be at times very cold auction halls. That said, some auctions will continue to operate traditional physical auctions and these are likely to remain well attended.

The rapid increase in online engagement has also changed the way that trade buyers assess stock condition. No longer able to physically inspect vehicles for themselves, they now rely on photography, condition reports and auction grading. As a result, vehicles with condition issues are easily highlighted, impacting hammer prices.

Many buyers shy away from vehicles towards the higher end of auction grades with condition issues, as it delays the time taken to get them on the forecourt, with grades 4 and 5 often achieving disproportionately lower bids. Most buyers appear content to bid in line with Glass’s trade value for grade 3’s and even more for grade 2 and 1. The question here is the potential opportunity for vendors to refurbish vehicles before a sale, to maximise their returns.

Analysis conducted by Glass’s shows the average price gap between a grade 4 and grade 3 condition car in 2020 was £510 as shown in the chart below, with the gap increasing in the second half of the year once the major auction groups switched to online-only.

The analysis is based on auction observations gathered throughout 2020 but excludes the lockdown months of April and May. Glass’s analysed typical Fleet aged cars between 2.5 and 4.5 years of age. It is clear to see the opportunity is there for vendors to maximise their returns by refurbishing cars from grade 4 to grade 3.

It is also evident that there is an opportunity to turn grade 3’s into grade 2’s, although in 2020 that was more pronounced following the end of Lockdown-1 and throughout the second half of the year. Whereas the gap between grade 4 and 3 is consistent throughout the year. Of course, refurbishment is an investment and costs vendors in terms of money and time. However, it is worth serious consideration as not only does it increase hammer prices it also enhances a vendor’s brand reputation, as buyers become used to improved condition standards being consistently offered.

Used Car Market Update December 2020

Used Car Auction Wholesale Market

Finally over, 2020 will be remembered above all for a certain virus that wreaked havoc around the world and across our global industry. For a whole year, COVID-19 has affected every aspect of our lives and it will have a clear effect on 2021. Lockdowns, mask-wearing and travel restrictions, unimaginable this time last year, have become part of our life and have unsurprisingly impacted the UK’s car markets.

New car registrations were down almost 30% due to reduced demand and severely impacted new car supply. Used car sales were also down, although it was good to see how quickly the used car retail sales switched to safely distanced online sales processes. Due to the various travel and gathering restrictions, auction providers suspended physical sales and now rely entirely on online auction portals. Fortunately, buyers adapted quickly and whilst overall sales volume for 2020 was down from 2019, first-time conversion rates and average sales prices were both up versus 2019 (3.6% and 20.6% respectively).

Overall sale volume 2020 versus 2019 December 2020

Specifically analysing December with Glass’s key metrics of first-time conversion rate and percentage of original cost new: the conversion rate of 72.4% was 5.2% higher than in November but almost 13% lower than the 85.3% achieved in December 2019. The average percentage of the original cost new was up 3.0% and 7.4% against November 2020 and December 2019 respectively. These results reflect the trends seen throughout the year, fewer cars selling with values holding up well. Given the circumstances, this is more positive than the expectations suggested.

First time conversion rate graph December 2020

Percentage original cost new graph December 2020

Despite their increasing popularity in the new car market, demand for HEVs (Hybrid Electric Vehicles) and BEVs (Battery Electric Vehicles) at auction continues to be lower than their ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) equivalents. Additionally, cars that require preparation work or are lack specification are also proving less desirable. This trend became more apparent as 2020 progressed. It appears buyers will still pay good money for the “right” stock, however, as times are more challenging, buyers are less keen to buy cars requiring additional preparation or that are outside of their comfort zones.

The graph below shows first-time conversion rate by fuel type and indicates that buyers are still more comfortable buying petrol and diesel cars rather than alternative fuel types. Petrol and diesel-powered cars achieve virtually the same conversion rates, with hybrids scoring a lower value and BEVs most susceptible to changes in supply and demand.

First time conversion rate graph split by fuel type December 2020

Used Car Retail Market

December is traditionally a three-week month due to the festive break. With the challenges of the November lockdown in England and other restrictions across the UK, the number of used car retail sales was 7.9% lower than December 2019 and increased 9.4% versus November 2020. Interestingly, whilst the average sale price was not too dissimilar to the averages for November 2020 and December 2019 – 1.5% higher and 0.8% lower – the average age of the cars sold, at 49.4 months, was 1.8 months younger than November but a notable 9.4 months older than in December 2019.

Glass’s Live Retail pricing tool measures the length of time a car spends on the forecourt. This is a useful barometer of the state of the used car retail market – the days to sell are lower when there is good demand and higher when times are tougher.

The average in December was 45.5 days to sell. This was 7.6 days longer than in November, but only 0.8 days longer than in December 2019, so in keeping with the time of the year. To achieve these sales, the average discount required was also higher in December than in the previous month, up from 2.5% to 3.1%, but still favourable when compared to the 3.7% average discount for December 2019.

Average days to sell graph December 2020

Used car sales outlook

With the UK once again in a state of lockdown, the UK’s used car market has got off to a subdued start. The rollout of the vaccination programme and the agreement of a Brexit deal will help promote a degree of positivity and should translate into a recovery of the markets, although this will not be truly apparent until the second quarter of the year.

New car registrations were 29.4% down in 2020 from the total achieved in 2019 and whilst volumes will recover through 2021, registrations are unlikely to achieve “normal” levels this year. There are concerns that the significant reduction of registrations in 2020 will decrease the supply of sub 24-month-old “nearly new” vehicles, particularly diesel-powered cars. This concern is illustrated by the 2020 market share for diesel. The diesel market share decreased from 25.2% in 2019 to 16.0% in 2020 and equated to a 55% drop in volume. Petrol-power also saw large drops – although not to the same scale – which will also lead to a shortage of supply.

Alternative fuel vehicles

New car registrations in 2019 were primarily driven by availability rather than demand. Therefore the apparent swing towards alternative fuel should be viewed with a degree of caution. It is true to say that the market is undoubtedly moving away from pure ICE to alternative fuel vehicles, but 2020 was not a normal year and makes valid conclusions difficult to make. Indeed, 2021 may see supply distorted again, potentially in favour of ICE as manufacturers attempt to catch up on deliveries delayed from last year. However, with the increasing availability of PHEVs, HEVs and BEVs these powertrains will likely continue to take market share from traditional ICE variants over the coming months and years and continue to change the availability of fuel types at auction.

Moving forward, what can be said with a fair degree of certainty is that 2021 is going to be another “fascinating” year for both new and used car sales, with a much higher percentage of online sales than ever before.

Upbeat outlook but not without challenges

1.63 million new cars hit UK roads in 2020 according to figures released by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). With over 680,000 fewer cars registered, 2020 produced the lowest annual registration total since 1992.

The national lockdown between March 23^rd and June 1^st accounted for a significant proportion of the losses, with the market down over 615,000 units by the end of June. A further lockdown in England in November, together with enhanced restrictions periodically affecting the other three nations of the UK, added to an already challenging new car market. Dealers introduced ‘click and collect’ services part way through Lockdown-1, and enhanced online sales solutions enabled dealers to satisfy pent-up demand. These developments will already be paying dividends as the UK once again finds itself in a national lockdown, expected to last until the beginning of March at the earliest.

The wholesale used car market was somewhat subdued in December, with little evidence of a serious bounce-back following November’s lockdown. That was not surprising as December tends to be one of the weaker used car retail months, with Christmas shopping higher on the public’s priority list. The first-time conversion rate was slightly better than November’s at 72.4%, although that was almost 13 percentage points lower than December 2019.

As we look to the year ahead and consider what is in store for the new and used car markets, COVID-19 remains the biggest challenge. Thankfully, the UK Government achieved an 11^th hour Brexit trade deal, averting import tariffs, so that is one less problem for the new car market to contend with.

It is encouraging to see the rapid roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines, however, it is likely to be several months before the UK sees significant coverage, making further restrictions likely. The identification of a new, more easily transmissible variant of COVID-19 is a worrying development and has led to the latest national lockdown. This will undoubtedly affect new car registrations in at least January and February, and the impact will be considerable when compared to last year’s numbers, as the effects of COVID-19 did not impact that period. As we move through March and into the second quarter, which last year was badly affected due to Lockdown-1, registration totals should begin catching back lost ground and by year-end could reach around the 2 million mark.

The used car market should burst back into life once the Government gives a firm indication that the latest lockdown is to end. Until then, Glass’s expects continuing lack-lustre activity. Despite the challenges that lay ahead, the outlook for the used car market remains upbeat, with no crash in used car values expected.

Used-car markets and RVs under limited pressure in 2021

Senior data journalist Neil King explains Autovista Group’s key predictions for the year ahead, focusing on used-car demand and residual values in this second part.

Europe’s big five markets all suffered double-digit declines in new-car registrations in 2020, but used-car transactions exhibited more resilience. The exception is Italy, which suffered the same year-on-year in used-car transactions in Italy as new-car registrations, 27.9%, according to industry association ANFIA.

In contrast to the dramatic 29% decline in new-car registrations, used-car transactions in Spain declined by 12.8% in 2020, to 1,963,053 transactions, according to GANVAM, the Spanish dealers’ association.

‘The used-car market in Spain is always more favoured than the new-car market in times of crisis. Sales fell by only 13% in 2020, and the age structure of these sales has changed substantially in recent months and will continue to do so throughout 2021. The most notable change is undoubtedly the lower prevalence of young used cars in the market, caused by the standstill in tourism and the lack of renewal of rental fleets. In 2021, we also expect a greater share of electric vehicles in the used-car market, which accounted for just 0.2% of total sales in 2020,’ explained Azofra.

In the UK, used-car sales data are not yet available for full-year 2020, but the country’s used-car market contracted by 17.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters. Autovista Group estimates that used-car transactions were 15% lower in the year as a whole. This is only about half the contraction suffered by the new-car market. Used-car transactions are naturally expected to improve in 2021, but with a lower growth rate than new-car registrations.

Used-car transactions in France declined by a modest 3.8% in 2020, compared to a 25.5% fall in the new-car market, according to industry association CCFA. ‘The demand for diesel cars on the used-car market is still high while the supply is lower and lower, but petrol sales, which account for about 40% of total used-car sales, reached a maximum in 2020,’ explained Yoann Taitz, Autovista Group head of valuations and insights, France and Benelux. Limited growth, if any, is therefore expected in 2021.

Slight improvement for Germany

Even in Germany, where the used-car market declined by only 2.4% in 2020, according to the KBA. Schwacke expects a slight improvement in used-car sales compared to 2020. ‘The used-car business was quite successful over the past 12 months under the circumstances and sold slightly more than seven million cars by the end of the year. The forecast for 2021 is the same – around seven million cars,’ commented Andreas Geilenbrügge, head of valuations and insights at Schwacke.

Europe: new-car registrations and used-car transactions, year-on-year % change, 2020

Source: CCFA, KBA, ANFIA, GANVAM, SMMT

(Note: UK is estimated, based on the latest data)

RVs grow in 2020, face limited pressure in 2021

Autovista Group’s COVID-19 tracker shows that the index of residual values (RVs) finished 2020 at or above pre-crisis levels in all of Europe’s major markets. The measurements began in February, with an index value of 100.

Source: Autovista Group, Residual Value Intelligence, COVID-19 tracker

Residual values have peaked, however, and have declined in recent weeks. Looking to 2021, ongoing COVID-19 restrictions and the economic impact, as well as the aversion to public transport, will support used-car demand. Autovista Group therefore predicts that residual values will only come under limited pressure.

Spain: difficult year

The tax rise in Spain, with the introduction of WLTP-based emissions figures, and the end to the RENOVE scrappage scheme will hinder new-car demand and means RVs may increase slightly in value terms in Spain, but a 1.1% decline is forecast in terms of trade percentage, i.e. value retention, in the standard 36-month/60,000km scenario.

‘We foresee a difficult year for the sector, especially in terms of new-car sales. However, used-car sales will resist the onslaught of the crisis better and only their average residual values will be slightly affected.’ Azofra emphasised.

‘Electric vehicles will experience greater pressure on their transaction prices in the used-car market. On the one hand, their price is still very high, which is an important market barrier, even more so in crisis circumstances such as the present. On the other hand, demand is trying to be stimulated through incentive schemes, so it will be difficult to maintain their used-car price. In addition, the recharging infrastructure is still insufficient, the poorest in the big five European countries, which reduces their development space in the used-car market. With regard to the rest of the engines, we estimate small negative adjustments in petrol and diesel vehicles and greater stability for hybrid engines, which are in increasing demand.’

The end to Brexit uncertainty could serve as a positive for the UK’s new-car market, but deliveries may be affected and price rises are expected as the share of components in some engines will invariably exceed the ‘locally-sourced’ threshold. It is an incredibly difficult call but Glass’s, the UK arm of Autovista Group, forecasts a 1.4% decline in the RVs, in trade percentage terms.

Schwacke points out that fleet registrations from 2017/2018 declined somewhat in Germany and there were also almost 400,000 tactical registrations less from 2020, of which usually two thirds are sold to end customers as young used vehicles in the year after first registration.

Stable demand

‘In view of the expected stable demand, this is definitely a plus point for price development in the coming year, but supply volume will probably struggle,’ said Geilenbrügge. The return to a 19% VAT rate on new cars will also affect RVs, but a modest decline of 0.7%, in trade percentage terms, is forecast for used cars in the 36-month/60,000km scenario.

The tax changes in France, which penalise petrol cars more than diesels, and incentives for EVs present a mixed picture. ‘In 2021, there is a clear risk of having a new-car market in contradiction with the used-car market. For CO2 reasons, the fuel types that are driving the new-car market are not the most attractive ones on the used-car market. Lower supply will reduce the RV pressure on petrol cars, and the sales stop of powerful diesel engines, which are well demanded on the used-car market will especially support RVs of these specific vehicles. The high prices and bonus for EVs still impacts RVs, especially at 12 months, but the €1,000€ bonus reduction in July 2021 will support RVs more positively,’ explained Taitz. Overall, the latest RV outlook for France calls for a minimal drop of 0.4% in the prices, in trade percentage terms, of used cars.

The poorest RV outlook is in Italy, where used cars have not weathered the COVID-19 storm better than new cars and the introduction of additional incentives for new cars will apply more pressure on used-car demand and residual values. RVs of used cars in the 36-month/60,000km scenario are currently forecast to fall by 3.9% in trade percentage terms.

In a first part, King discussed Autovista Group’s predictions for new-car registrations in Europe’s major markets in 2021.

New Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Market December 2020

December is recognised as a quieter registration month, but with delayed pipeline orders now being delivered, the month proved stronger than expected. Registration data from the SMMT indicates the LCV market declined just 1% in December. The 27,283 vehicles registered brought the total year-end volume for 2020 up to 292,657 units compared to 365,778 units in 2019, a deficit of 20%. However, this result did allow LCV registrations for 2020 to exceed the quarter four SMMT forecast of 288,000 units.

In what has been an extraordinary and testing year for the commercial vehicle sector, with the backdrop of countrywide lockdowns, social distancing measures, redundancies, Brexit and the year-long concern of looming no-deal vehicle tariffs has all affected LCV demand during 2020.

Annual new LCV registrations 2016-2019 graph

The December segment breakdown reveals a 7.3% registration increase in vans between 2.5-3.5 tonnes sector was the only bright light. Registrations for vans under 2.0 tonnes and vans between 2.0-2.5 tonnes declined by 17.7% and 2.6% respectively. Unsettling times for the Pickup sector continue, with December registrations declining a further 29.9%. Pickup registrations for the full year were 35,691 units, down 32.7% on the 53,055 total in 2019.

Top five LCV registrations

Top LCV registrations table December 2020

Throughout 2020 the pandemic affected the whole UK economy and will continue to do so into 2021. Although a Brexit deal with Europe is now agreed, clarity over UK-EU trading relations coupled to the rollout of vaccinations is paramount to driving recovery and offering hope to both the van industry and the economy as a whole.

December Used Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Overview

The first half of December remained busy with auction houses confirming high levels of online sale activity with healthy conversion rates. In the run-up towards Christmas, the number of sales reduced but performance remained strong. Prices held steady in the majority of sectors with high bids continuing for retail-ready stock in the busy home delivery run-up to Christmas.

Some dealers took this as an opportunity to stock up on additional vehicles ahead of a possible shortage of quality stock, driven by adverse effects on the supply chain due to further lockdowns and the implications of a Brexit ‘no deal’.

Although sales at auction in December decreased compared to December 2019, conversion rates over the period increased by 3.9%. At the same time, Euro 5 stock made up over 60% of sales, highlighting the shortage of quality later year stock in the marketplace.

As we move through another period of lockdown, the outlook suggests further stock shortages through the first quarter of 2021. Demand for home delivery shows little sign of abating and as a result, prices in most sectors look set to remain high.

December in detail

Glass’s auction data shows the overall number of LCV sales in December declined by 33.3% versus November 2020 and by 4.6% over the past twelve months. First-time conversions decreased 1.8% on the previous month, with the 4×4 sector again most heavily affected.

December also saw average sales prices increase by 5.2% versus November and were 11% higher than the same point last year – the third highest in the last twelve months. The average age of sold stock decreased from 73.5 months in November to 72 months in December and was 2.1 months younger than the same point last year.

In line with sales of younger vehicles, average mileages also decreased from 78,205 miles in November to 78,005 miles in December. However, December’s average mileage is 560 miles higher than at the same point last year.

German new-car registrations down 19% in 2020

Germany saw the registration of 2.9 million new cars in 2020, down 19.1% on 2019. The latest figures from the Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (KBA) show that 62.8% of these units were registered for commercial purposes, down 22.4%, while 37.1% of the market share was private, down 13%.

Bidding farewell to a year of unprecedented challenges, the German market was able to end 2020 on a marginally positive note. A total of 311,394 passenger cars were sold in December last year, up 9.9% on the same period from 2019. Accompanied by an 8.4% rise in September, the German new-car market only saw two months of registration growth in 2020. These upticks in the second half of last year represent a move away from the 61% plunge in April and 49.5% drop in May.

New-car registrations, Germany, y-o-y % change, January to December 2020

Data: KBA

While Germany appears to be leading the way with a recovering automotive market, difficulties continue across Europe as member states are battered by fresh pandemic waves. In December last year, French new-car registrations dropped by 11.8% compared to the same period in 2019. Italy felt a greater decline at 14.9%, while Spain saw just 13 fewer registered units than December 2019. However, Germany does not appear to be out of the woods yet.

Climbing infection rates have triggered an extension of the country’s lockdown measures until the end of January. This makes a positive start to this year seem even less likely as dealerships must remain closed, except for the service departments. While Autovista Group’s Schwacke expects to see a recovery to just under 3.1 million new-car registrations in 2021, it predicts figures will be below those in previous years, and significantly below 2019’s peak.

New-car registrations, EU4, y-o-y % change, January to December 2020

Automotive sales recovery tracker full year Europe 2020

Data: CCFA, KBA, ANFIA, ANFAC

Drives and segments

With the largest share of last year’s market at 46.7%, a total of 1,361,723 petrol-powered cars were registered, down 36.3% on 2019. Meanwhile, 819,896 diesel-driven cars took a 28.1% share, down 28.9% on the previous year.

Alternative drives, consisting of hybrids, battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), hydrogen fuel-cell and gas claimed approximately a quarter of all new-car registrations in Germany last year. Hybrids achieved a share of 18.1%, up 120.6% on the previous period with 527,864 registrations, including plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) with 200,469 units, up 342.1% and with a market share of 6.9%. Electric cars represented 6.7% of the market, up 206.8% to 194,163 units. A total of 7,159 gas-powered cars were registered in 2020, down 6.1% on 2019, and LPG-driven cars saw a drop of 9.8%, to 6,543 units. CO2 emissions from cars fell by 11.0% last year, on average to 139.8g/km from 157.0g/km in the previous reporting period.

Over half of all registrations were accounted for by SUVs (21.3%), compact cars (20.5%) or small cars (15.1%). With 2.6% of the market, motorhomes saw the most significant increase, up 41.4%.

Brand performance

All German brands showed a decline last year. Smart took the hardest fall at 67.3%, followed by Opel, which dropped by 32.3%, then Ford down 30.6%. VW fell by 21.3% on the previous reporting year, Audi slumped by 19.9%, Porsche was down by 16.3%, BMW dropped by 13.7%. Negative results were also reported by Mini (down 11.7%) and Mercedes (down 10.6%). With a share of 18%, VW held the largest share of the new-car market in 2020.

For imported brands, both Tesla (up 55.9%) and Fiat (up 0.2%) reported positive results for 2020. Meanwhile, declines were recorded by Suzuki (down 44.8%), Ssangyoung (down 40.2%), Mazda (down 38.1%) and Dacia (down 36.6%). Skoda led the imported brands with a market share of 6.2%, followed by Renault with 4.3%.

The Van’s Headlights: The Ford Ranger Wildtrak

The Van’s Headlights

Despite increased competition over the last few years, sales of Pick-ups have grown consistently since 2012, with over 50,000 UK registrations each year over the last three years. One consistent performer over this time is the Ford Ranger. The pick-up of choice for many, sales of the Ranger since 2016 have equated to nearly 30% of all pick-up sales in the UK during this time.

Even with a reduction in the number of players in the Pick-up sector over the last 12-18 months and the ravaging effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the industry, Ford continues to outsell the competition. Although overall sales are down twenty thousand to the end of November 2020, the Ford Ranger remains as popular as ever. Nearly 11,700 units have been registered in that period, amounting to 35.3% of the overall pick up sector total. In this month’s edition of The Van’s Headlights, the team consider the merits of the best-selling pick-up in the UK, the Ford Ranger (1998–).

The Ford Ranger Wildtrak

In the USA, the history of the Ranger name started decades before it was used on a pick-up truck. In 1958 Ford had experimented with the name on the Edsel Ranger sedan. This was followed in 1967 with the launch of the fifth-generation F-Series pick-up. The top of the line trim for the F-100 and F-250 was called the Ranger. In 1970, a higher specification Ranger XLT was added to the range.

By the early 1980s, a bigger F-150 had been introduced, taking most of the sales from the F-100. Ford recognised that there was a gap in the market for a smaller pick-up. Already in their line up, but built by Mazda, was the Ford Courier pick-up.

In 1982, Ford of America axed the F-100 and the Courier pick-up and ushered in its first compact pick-up, the Ranger. Continuing to be produced by Mazda, the first generation Ranger offered two trim levels, the XLT and the Lariat selling over 250,000 units in 1985 alone.

The second-generation Ranger was launched in 1993 with a major redesign. The grille size was reduced substantially, creating a smoother, more aerodynamic face, whilst flared wheel arches created a more rounded look. In 1994, the Mazda produced Ranger was replaced by a Ford produced Ranger and rebadged as a Mazda B-Series for far-eastern markets. In 1998, an electric Ranger was added to the range for the US market. It had a range of 65 miles and a top speed of 65mph. Up to 400 of them still exist today.

1998 saw the launch of the third-generation Ranger pick-up in the US. An extended Super Cab featuring a second row of ‘jump seats’ in the rear was a design unique to the Ranger, whilst an additional XL trim level was added. However, the compact pick-up market was under pressure from the bigger full-size pick-ups. Sales were declining and by 2008 were barely reaching six figures. Ford decided to pull the plug on the Ranger just four years later with sales at an all-time low of just 19,000.

Ford was not done with the Ranger though. It had noticed how big the compact pick-up market had become in other world markets and how well the rebadged Mazda B-Series had performed against competition from Toyota, Mitsubishi and Isuzu in particular.

International markets

During 1998, Ford launched the Ranger name on the international market, rebadging the Mazda B-Series until 2006. Launched with 4×2 and 4×4 configurations, Regular, Extended Super Cab and Double Cab variants and several trim levels, the Ranger was well placed to compete. The higher specification Wildtrak trim level was introduced to the UK line-up in September 2005.

The second-generation international Ranger was produced between 2006 and 2011, this time derived from the Mazda BT-50 pick-up which replaced the B-Series.

The partnership with Mazda ended in 2011 with Ford producing the third-generation Ranger independently. Designed by Ford Australia, the Ranger was sold across five continents and 180 markets with 4×2 and 4×4 drivetrains and up to five trim levels. New styling saw a move towards the leisure utility market. The same off-road ruggedness was linked to curvier, more aerodynamic lines typically associated with an SUV. A 2.2TDCi engine with outputs of 125PS or 150PS and a 3.2TDCi 200PS unit powered the Ranger, with the latter mated to a 5-speed manual or 6-speed automatic transmission.

The Ranger was given a major facelift in 2015, receiving enhancements including revised engines and a more muscular look that included a new grille, slimmer headlights, new bumpers and revised headlights. More equipment including DAB radio featured as well. SYNC2 connectivity became standard on the Limited and Wildtrak models, whilst options included lane-keeping alert for the first time. At this time, the 2.2TDCi 125PS and 150PS outputs were dropped in favour of more powerful 130PS and 160PS units. Euro 6 compliant variants were introduced in 2017.

The third-generation Ranger launched in the summer of 2019 with a raft of improvements. Featuring an all-new set of 2.0-litre EcoBlue diesel engines offering 130PS, 170PS and 213PS and new 6-speed manual or 10-speed automatic transmissions. The new UK version includes a revised front bumper and all-new grille, new exterior colours and premium LED headlamps on higher series versions and an all-new top-of-the-range Raptor model.

At the same time, following huge increases in US compact/mid-sized pick-up sales, Ford also re-launched the Ranger back in to the American market.

The all-new Ranger due for launch in 2022 will be developed by Ford Australia and manufactured at the Ford Silverton factory in South Africa. It will be a collaboration with Volkswagen who will rebadge the pick-up as the Amarok.

Something for everyone

Andy Picton, Glass’s Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor recommends the Ford Ranger as “a long-established pick-up that has been the preferred choice by operators for many years. The Ranger offers something for everyone, with workhorse and lifestyle users equally catered for.”

Andy added, “With its impressive working credentials, towing capabilities and extensive specification list, it’s easy to see why the Ranger is so popular. Equally capable on-road or off, the Ranger is reliable, tough and attractive and benefits from the support of Ford’s strong Transit Centre dealer network”.

The Ford Ranger Pick-up range

Euro 6d-Temp Diesel engines
4×2 and 4×4 drivetrains
Manual and automatic transmissions
Body styles
– Regular Cab
– Extended Super Cab
– Double Cab
Six trim levels
– XL
– XLT
– Limited
– Wildtrak
– Thunder
– Raptor

Ford Ranger Wildtrak 4×4 3.2TDCi 200PS Auto D/Cab Pick-up (2016-2019)

Ford Ranger Wildtrak 4x4 3.2TDCi 200PS Pick-up (2016-2019) interior

Standard specification on the Ranger 4×4 XL 2.2TDCi 160PS double cab included DAB radio with USB, AUX and Bluetooth, body-coloured front bumpers, electrically operated and heated wing mirrors, electric front windows, Ford Easy-Fuel capless refuelling system, Electronic Stability Control (ESC), drivers airbag and 16-inch steel wheels.

Additionally, the recommended 2018 Ranger Wildtrak 4×4 3.2TDCi 200PS Double cabadded a plethora of additional equipment as standard. This included; a choice of either manual or automatic transmission, 18-inch machined alloy wheels, bed liner, moulded side steps, aerodynamic sports bar, power-folding heated door mirrors with puddle lights, rear parking sensors and 12v power socket in the load area.

A liquid metallic grey finish featured for the new trapezoidal grille, side mirrors, door handles, side air vents, load-bed rails and tail lamps, exclusive rectangular fog lamps, and bold Wildtrak graphics that stand out against the new signature exterior metallic Pride Orange finish. Inside, the premium design continued with exclusive heated black and orange sport seats incorporating an eight-way power-adjustable driver’s seat, dual colour digital displays, 8-inch touchscreen, chrome effect air-vent rings, DAB radio/CD/SD-Nav system with 8” TFT touchscreen, Ford SYNC2 with voice control, USB and Bluetooth, steering wheel-mounted controls, cruise control, Dual-Zone Electronic Automatic Temp Control (DEATC), rear privacy glass, soft-touch instrument panel top with orange accent stitching and ambient interior lighting.

Ford Ranger Wildtrak Auto vehicle details table

2018 Pros	2018 Cons
Comfortable drive	Not the ‘greenest’ pick-up
Good level of specification and safety aids	3yr/60k warranty shortest in sector
5-star SCAP crash rated	The six-speed automatic is a little sluggish
Can tow uo to 3,500kg	Uncomfortable offset pedals on the manual
Comprehensive model line-up	Engine is noisy
Plenty of low down pulling power	Fuel economy not the best in sector
Benefits from dedicated Transit Centre dealer network

Glass’s recommendation

Ford Ranger Wildtrak 4×4 3.2TDCi 200PS Auto D/Cab Pick-Up
Registration Plate: 2018/68
Mileage: 30,000 miles
Glass’s Trade £19,550 Excl VAT
Glass’s Retail £22,800 Excl VAT

UK 2020 new-car registrations show lowest annual volume since 1992

New-car registrations in the UK plummeted by 29.4% in 2020. Autovista Group senior data journalist Neil King explores the latest figures and the market outlook.

The lowest annual volume of new-car registrations since 1992 was recorded in the UK in 2020. The total for the year was 1,631,064 units, according to data released by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). The UK emerged from its second lockdown on 2 December, only to see new regional restrictions imposed from 16 December. These led to a 10.9% year-on-year fall in new-car registrations during the month, with 132,692 new cars joining UK roads. Registrations of petrol cars (including mild-hybrid petrol) declined 32.9% in 2020, but still held a 62.7% share of the market. Demand for diesel cars (including mild-hybrid diesel) plunged 47.6%, accounting for just under a fifth of the market.

Registrations of hybrid cars grew by 12.1%. Following a dry spell as the UK Government removed grants for plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) in 2019, the technology enjoyed a resurgence in 2020, with registrations increasing by over 90%. Moreover, demand for battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) surged by 185.9% and electrically-chargeable vehicles (EVs) accounted for more than 10% of registrations, up from just over 3% in 2019.

New car registrations full year 2020 SMMT graph

Source: SMMT

‘Encouragingly, there is room for further growth as most of these [EV] registrations (68%) were for company cars, indicating that private buyers need stronger incentives to make the switch, as well as more investment in charging infrastructure, especially public on-street charging,’ the SMMT stated.

Mike Hawes, chief executive of the SMMT, added; ‘with manufacturers bringing record numbers of electrified vehicles to market over the coming months, we will work with the government to encourage drivers to make the switch, while promoting investment in our globally-renowned manufacturing base – recharging the market, industry and economy.’

The market contraction in December was in line with Autovista Group’s forecast for the month, and therefore for the year too. There is turbulence ahead as England and Scotland have reintroduced national lockdowns and there are ongoing restrictions across the rest of the UK. These measures will hinder the automotive recovery in the UK, at least in the short term. ‘While click-and-collect can continue to provide a lifeline, it cannot offset the impact of showroom closures. With a vaccine programme now underway, however, in 2021 there is the potential to drive a recovery that would also support the UK’s environmental goals,’ the SMMT commented.

Possible 21-29% improvement

Autovista Group’s latest base-case forecast predicts a 25% improvement in new-car registrations in 2021, to just over two million units, and further growth of 7% in 2022. This is predicated upon vehicle deliveries being largely unimpaired and the car market being able to recover from current lockdowns and restrictions later in 2021.

UK new car registrations forecast graph 2020

In a downside scenario, however, greater disruption to new-car registrations (and supply) is assumed for 2021, leaving limited opportunity for recovery of the losses later in the year. The forecast for this worst-case scenario is for UK new-car registrations to recover by only 21% in 2021, remaining below two million units, with further growth of only 5% in 2022.

In a more positive upside scenario, disruption to the UK automotive sector will be even more short-lived than in the base-case forecast, with dealers quickly overcoming supply shortages and returning to full operational capacity. The less-severe impact on the wider economy would also bolster new-car registrations in 2021 and beyond. In this scenario, the UK new-car market is forecast to grow by 29% in 2021, to over 2.1 million units, and expand by 9% in 2022.

No-deal averted

Furthermore, following a year of unprecedented difficulties, the European Union and the UK reached an agreement on Christmas Eve for a Brexit deal. This has averted the dreaded ‘no-deal’ scenario and accompanying tariffs on car imports and exports. ‘Given seven out of 10 new cars registered in the UK in 2020 were imported from Europe, the continuation of tariff- and quota-free trade is critical to a strong new-car market in the UK,’ the SMMT emphasised.

Nevertheless, as the UK no longer follows the EU’s rules on production standards, checks on goods have been introduced. This, in turn, creates more paperwork and red tape, which may result in delays if goods arrive at ports unprepared. However, the deal does include a 12-month grace period on some elements of the ‘rules-of-origin’ declarations, which require exporters to certify goods qualify as locally-sourced, allowing them to avoid tariffs. Businesses will have a year to obtain supporting documents form third-party suppliers, giving some companies more time to adapt.

Automotive relief at Brexit deal

Following a year of unprecedented difficulties, the European Union and the UK reached an agreement on Christmas Eve for a Brexit deal.

‘It was a long and winding road. But we have got a good deal to show for it,’ said European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen. ‘It is fair and balanced. And it is the right and responsible thing to do for both sides.’

Confirming the long-awaited agreement, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson estimated the free-trade deal to be worth approximately £660 billion (€735 billion). He described it as a ‘comprehensive Canada-style free-trade deal,’ which means UK goods can be sold without tariffs and quotas in the EU.

WATCH LIVE: My update on our future partnership with the European Union. https://t.co/cTd8qWRbrn
— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) December 24, 2020

As the UK now no longer follows the EU’s rules on production standards, checks on goods have been introduced. This, in turn, creates more paperwork and red tape, which may result in delays if goods arrive at ports unprepared. However, the deal does include a 12-month grace period on some elements of the ‘rules of origin’ declarations, which require exporters to certify goods qualify as locally sourced, allowing them to avoid tariffs. Businesses will have a year to obtain supporting documents form third-party suppliers, giving some companies more time to adapt.

But how has this last minute, 1,246-page Christmas present been received by the automotive sector?

The automotive reaction

The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) welcomed the deal and the relief it brought as the sector avoids the harsh consequences of a no-deal Brexit. ACEA director-general Eric-Mark Huitema explained that no other industry is more closely integrated than the European automotive sector, which depends upon complex supply chains that stretch across the region.

‘The impact of a no-deal Brexit on the EU auto industry would have been simply devastating, so we are first and foremost extremely relieved that an agreement was reached before the transition period expired,’ Huitema said. ‘Nonetheless, major challenges still lie ahead, as trade in goods will be heavily impacted by barriers to trade in the form of new customs procedures that will be introduced on 1 January 2021.’

ACEA pointed out that compared to when the UK was aligned with the EU, the deal struck by negotiators has introduced much more red tape and regulatory burden. According to ACEA, before Brexit, almost 3 million vehicles worth €54 billion were traded annually between the EU and the UK, and cross-Channel trade in automotive parts accounted for nearly €14 billion.

Phase-in period

In the UK, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) also welcomed news of the agreement as a platform for a future relationship between the EU and UK. It also identified the need for a ‘phase-in period,’ which it stated would be critical to help business on both sides adapt.

‘The tariff-free, quota-free trade industry has called for has been secured in principle. However, the six-year phase-in period and special provisions for electrified vehicles and batteries now make it imperative that the UK secures at pace investment in battery gigafactories and electrified supply chains to create the world-leading battery production infrastructure to maintain our international competitiveness,’ said Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive.

The SMMT went on to call for the immediate ratification and implementation of the agreement. Members of Parliament in the UK did go on to vote overwhelmingly to back the deal, with the House of Lords also passing the bill off for Royal Assent.

The EU has also identified the need to get the agreement ratified as a matter of ‘special urgency,’ even though it was unable to do so before the UK left the single market. Given the late hour, the Commission proposed to apply the details on a provisional basis for a limited time period until 28 February 2021. The deal was also given unanimous backing by ambassadors from the 27 nations, with written approval from member states.

Now the UK can look to future partnerships with countries like Turkey, with which it recently signed a deal for preferential trading terms. New relationships like these will be essential as the country’s partnership with the EU trading bloc becomes more complex, and it navigates the terms of the deal.

‘Further ahead, we must pursue the wider trade opportunities that Brexit is supposed to deliver while accelerating the UK’s transition to electrified-vehicle manufacturing. With the deal in place, government must double down on its commitment to a green industrial revolution, create an investment climate that delivers battery-gigafactory capacity in the UK, supports supply-chain transition and maintains free-flowing trade – all essential to the UK Automotive sector’s future success,’ said Hawes.

Monthly Market Dashboard: RVs start to fall in Europe

Autovista Group’s interactive monthly market dashboard (MMD) suggests that pressure is increasing on residual values. Senior data journalist Neil King explores this month’s analytics.

This month’s MMD reveals that the average residual value (RV) of cars aged 36 months and with 60,000km grew year on year in all the Big 5 European markets in December. However, there are early indications that RVs are coming under pressure, with values lower than reported for November in Italy and the UK, and essentially stable in Germany in Spain. France bucked the trend, albeit with month-on-month pricing growth of just 1.3%. The downward trend looks set to continue in 2021.

RV retention, represented as RV%, grew year on year in all markets except Germany. The highest growth in RV% terms was in the UK, where the average RV% was 46%, equating to a 9.2% change compared to December 2019. Nevertheless, even RVs in the UK were lower than in November in terms of both value and retention.

The UK enjoyed the strongest rally in used-car prices after Europe emerged from lockdowns. This was driven by the release of pent-up demand, and a starker vehicle-supply challenge than any other market, which translated into higher RVs as used-car demand outstripped supply.

However, as reported in our latest coverage of the ‘three-speed’ development of RVs across Europe, RVs in the UK have been descending from their great height since late October as pent-up demand is broadly satisfied and new-car supply has improved. With the UK under restrictions as it seeks to stem the sharp rise in COVID-19 cases, like most of Europe, and the Brexit transition period ending on 31 December, a further descent is expected going into 2021.

Lockdown slowdown in France and the UK

Despite the pressure on RVs, three-year-old cars are selling quicker than a year ago in all the major European markets, except the UK. However, the average number of stock days over the last month, compared to the November MMD snapshot, rose by 14.9% in France and 16.6% in the UK as both countries have been in strict lockdowns, including the closure of dealerships. Nevertheless, three-year-old cars are still selling the quickest in the UK, moving on after an average of less than 40 days.

The greatest reduction in the average number of days for 36-month-old cars to sell, compared to the December 2019 snapshot, was in Italy. These vehicles now have to wait on average only 45 days to find a new buyer, sitting idle for 13% fewer days than in November 2019.

Two of the three fastest-selling cars in the major markets in December 2020 are Audi models in France. The A6 is taking less than 16 days to find a new home and the A4 sells after about 18 days on average. In second place is the Volvo XC90 in Italy, which needs just under 18 days to be rehomed.

Negative RV outlook

The new MMD also features the latest Autovista Group RV outlook for the major European markets. The new downward trend for RVs is unfortunately forecast to continue in 2021, with prices of used cars in the 36 month/60,000km scenario declining in all the Big 5 European markets.

In the December update, the RV outlook has improved slightly in France and the UK but values are still forecast to decline in 2021, by 0.4% and 1.4% respectively. Used-car prices are forecast to decline by 0.7% in Germany and 1.1% in Spain. The weakest outlook is for Italy, where RVs are forecast to be 3.9% lower than their current level at the end of 2021.

Click here or on the screenshot above to view the monthly market dashboard for December 2020.

Launch Report: Citroën C4 – a crossover pioneer

With the new C4, Citroën has mixed a crossover with a hatchback to deliver a C-segment car with DNA from both camps. It has more of a hatchback silhouette than an SUV, but it still offers high ground clearance and an elevated seating position, as well as an airy internal feel due to the raised roofline.

The new Citroën is equipped with progressive hydraulic shock absorbers, comfortable seats, 18-inch wheels, a digital cockpit, and offers good space between the two seat rows. It also has more than 20 advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), a head-up display and a 10-inch central console. Citroën has removed the need to use the touchscreen to access the climate controls, with a row of controls in the lower central dashboard.

The C4 is available with petrol and diesel engines, as well as a fully-electric version, the e-C4, on PSA’s modular, ‘multi-energy’ CMP platform. It is one of the hatchback/crossover pioneers in the C-segment and is offered at a reasonable price point, especially with the good level of equipment. However, some manufacturers are launching similar offerings in the coming months, increasing competition for the model.

Click here or on the image below to read Autovista Group’s benchmarking of the Citroën C4 in France, Germany, Spain and the UK. The interactive launch report presents new prices, forecast residual values and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis.

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