Fuel Type: Diesel

Used Car Market Update November 2020

Used Car Auction Wholesale Market

The UK used car auction market cooled a little in October. The performance was still good, but the three key measures of First Time Conversion, Percentage of Original Cost New, and Sales Volume were all slightly lower than in September. Sales volume was once again higher than the same month last year, while the percentage of cost new also exceeded that achieved in October 2019, up 4% even though the average age of the cars sold was only 2 months lower (84.2 months in October 2020 versus 86.2 months in 2019). The first time conversion rate was down from September’s 85.0% to 80.1%, although that is still a respectable result given the ongoing challenges.

Used car market first time conversion rate graph November 2020

used car market original cost new graph November 2020

Used car market sales volume index graph November 2020

Glass’s Editorial team observed that buyers became more selective during September and this trend continued into October. In that respect the October market appeared to be back to “business as usual”, with desirable cars – good condition and specification – selling relatively quickly and achieving stronger values, with cars of lower grading and specification struggling to make credible values, or in some cases even attract bids.

With this in mind, vendors must present cars at the highest standard. This means documents, keys and, where appropriate, charging cables must be present at the sale. The latter is very important even with the current relatively low volume of plug-in cars, as the significant cost of replacement cables means their absence directly impacts values achieved at auction.

Today, with purely online sales, vendor “presence” is incredibly important to maintain buyer participation in auctions. It is easy for buyers to follow more than one auction simultaneously, regardless of location. Therefore, to maintain sale momentum, a vendor who makes quick decisions on bidding and provisional sales creates a more animated sale with more enthusiastic bidding. This is because buyers know immediately what they have bought and as a result what they still need to look for.

The Glass’s Editorial team continue to monitor auctions remotely. The majority of UK auctions are currently held online and the data shows that buyers have transitioned to this new way of working quickly.

Used Car Retail Market

October’s used car retail market reflected the auction market and continued to follow the trends seen in September. The number of used retail sales declined 6% compared with September and saw a 16.2% decline versus October 2019. However, the average sale price continued to rise, up 1.5% over the previous month and 7.5% versus October 2019. These increases in the average sale price are particularly notable given the average age of retail used cars sold in October was 48.6 months, compared with 47.5 months in September and 39.4 months in October last year.

Used car market retail observations graph November 2020

Used car market average sale price graph November 2020

Glass’s Live Retail pricing tool measures the length of time a car spends on the retail forecourt. The average 35.4 days for October saw cars selling 2.3 days faster than the September average of 37.7 days and 3.5 days faster than October 2019. The is the fastest average sale time of the past two years. Additionally, the average discount required to achieve the sales in October was 1.8%, also much lower than the 3.0% recorded for October 2019. This increases the picture of a relatively healthy used car retail market in October 2020.

Used car market average days to sell graph November 2020

Next Month

October proved to be a relatively good month for both the wholesale and retail used car markets. The Welsh lockdown for the latter half of the month did not appear to have a notable adverse effect on the national market figures – September’s trends continued into October and the overall results were good.

However, with England in lockdown for much of November, it is reasonable to expect a reduction in performance for the key metrics. The English Lockdown-2 is not as restrictive as the one earlier in the year, and many car sales outlets are prepared for it this time around with ‘Click and Collect’ available in many locations. Overall, the effect on November’s sales will not be as pronounced as the fall in sales during Lockdown-1. However, auction values and sales volumes will be impacted, with early reports from the markets supporting this theory.

The Van’s Headlights: Ford Transit Connect

The Van’s Headlights

The current strength of the used LCV wholesale market is undeniable. The number of vehicles sold is up 26.7% on this time last year, whilst used LCV values are also up 22.8% over the same period. At the auctions, 88.5% of vehicles, sold at the first time of asking.

Vehicle production is still not back to pre-pandemic levels. With the lack of supply, there is a diminishing level of stock at dealerships. This has led to fewer de-fleets, with many fleets choosing to extend leases. This is resulting in a surge in demand for used light commercial vehicles (LCVs), especially with the UK population shifting consumer shopping activity from the high street to online retail.

In this month’s edition of The Van’s Headlights, the team consider the merits of the Ford Transit Connect Limited 240 1.5EcoBlue 120PS s/s Euro 6 L2 van (2018 – ).

2018 Ford transit connect limited L2 front side view

The Ford Transit Connect

Developed by Ford of Europe, the Ford Transit Connect van range launched in 2002. Replacing the Ford Escort Van and Ford Courier van ranges which ceased production the same year, the Connect has been in constant production ever since.

Initially built on the C170 Ford Focus platform and assembled in Gölcük, near Kocaeli, Turkey by Otosan, an automotive manufacturing company owned equally by Ford and Koç Holdings AS.

Originally available as a 4,278mm short-wheelbase (SWB) and 4,555mm long-wheelbase (LWB) van, the Transit Connect was offered with the following drivetrains

1.8-litre petrol
LPG/Bi-fuel conversion,
1.8TDdi diesel with a 75PS output.

From 2005, a more refined and powerful 1.8TDCi common rail diesel engine with 90PS was added to the range. L and LX trim levels were available at launch in the UK and were supported by a 3-year/60,000 mile warranty. In the second half of 2006, a more powerful 110PS diesel variant was added to the range.

To enhance the appeal, the Transit Connect was given a mid-cycle facelift in 2009, with a higher level of specification. Externally, a new deeper set front bumper and grille were added, whilst a new dashboard was incorporated in the cabin. At the same time, the Connect launched in North America immediately winning the ‘North American Truck of the Year 2010’. A Sport van was introduced in the UK in 2011, along with the short-lived Connect Electric van converted by Azure Dynamics.

The second generation of the Ford Transit Connect launched in 2013. Again built in Turkey, it was available with a Euro 6 compliant EcoBoost 1.0-litre petrol engine or Euro 5 compliant 1.6-litre diesel engine, with outputs of 75PS, 95PS or 115PS. To appeal to a greater audience, the Connect was made available in four different trim levels, Base, Trend, Limited and Sport. Two lengths were again available, with a ‘Double Cab-In-Van’ also part of the range.

A fully Euro 6 compliant 1.5TDCi diesel engine was introduced during the first quarter of 2016. As part of this launch, Ford added a new 8-speed PowerShift automatic transmission to the range with outputs of 100PS and 120PS.

A mid-cycle facelift was introduced in 2018, incorporating the latest Ford design DNA. A three-bar grille, slimmer headlamps, a more aerodynamic lower fascia and front spoiler gave a fresh new look. Additionally, an all-new 1.5-litre EcoBlue diesel engine was introduced with outputs of 75PS, 100PS and 120PS. A comprehensive range of driver assistance features including an Intelligent Speed Limiter with automatic vehicle speed adjustment to remain within maximum legal limits, Pre-Collision Assist with Pedestrian Detection emergency braking system, Side Wind Stabilisation, Active Park Assist and Ford’s Sync 3 voice and navigation system were also introduced.

In late 2019 a Euro 6d-Temp range launched, followed in October this year with the launch of fully compliant WLTP Transit Connect models. The range was enhanced further at this time with the launch of the all-new Active and MS-RT trim levels.

Something for everyone

Andy Picton, Glass’s Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor recommends the Ford Transit Connect as “the ‘go-to’ van for thousands of operators in the UK. This extremely capable light van is offered in two lengths as a panel van and a Double Cab-In-Van. Multiple trim specifications and engine outputs make it an ideal proposition for both fleets and sole traders alike.”

Andy added, “The Connect operates in a congested market sector, but benefits from a loyal following in both the new and used market, with buyers attracted to its strong brand and competitive pricing. Buyers of a Transit Connect also benefit from Ford’s strong Transit dealer network”.

Ford Transit Connect Limited 240 1.5EcoBlue 120PS s/s Euro 6 L2 van (2018 – )

The Ford Transit Connect range

Petrol and diesel engines
One body style
Two lengths
Panel van and Double Cab-In-Van
6-speed manual transmission and 8-speed automatic gearbox
Four trim levels – Leader, Trend, Limited and Sport
Euro 6 engine line up

A high level of standard specification featured in the Transit Connect and included a reach and rake steering wheel, DAB radio with USB and Bluetooth, ABS brakes with electronic brake-force distribution (EBD), Hill Start Assist, drivers airbag, 16” steel wheels, slimline full steel bulkhead (van only), immobiliser, remote central/double locking, auto start/stop and EcoSelect function.

2018 Ford transit connect limited interior

Additionally, the recommended 2018 Transit Connect Limited 240 L2 model added a plethora of additional equipment as standard. This included; front fog lights, 16” alloy wheels, body-coloured front and rear bumpers, side mouldings, wing mirrors and handles, drivers 8-way adjustable seat, heated drivers and passenger seat, electric, heated and folding wing mirrors, DAB radio with USB, Bluetooth and 4.2” TFT screen, Quickclear heated windscreen, electric front windows, manual air conditioning, leather steering wheel, rear parking sensors, cruise control, auto wipers and headlamps, adjustable speed limiter, keyless start, second remote key and perimeter alarm.

2018 Ford transit connect limited L2 van

2018 Ford Transit connect pros and cons table

Glass’s recommendation

Ford Transit Connect Limited 240 1.5EcoBlue 120PS s/s Euro 6 L2 van

Registration Plate: 2018/18

Mileage: 31,000 miles

Glass’s Trade £12,600 Excl VAT

Glass’s Retail £13,750 Excl VAT

EU new-car registrations declined 7.8% in October

Autovista Group senior data journalist Neil King explores the latest figures released by the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) as second-wave lockdowns bring more downturns.

New-car registrations in the EU declined 7.8% year-on-year in October. Volumes fell from 1,034,669 units to 953,615. This marks a return to the market contractions suffered every month in 2020, except for the modest growth in September. The decline is an improvement on the dramatic double-digit declines suffered in March to June, and again in August, but does not bode well as the region contends with a second wave of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and lockdowns.

EU new-car registrations, year-on-year % change, January to October 2020 and year-to-date (YTD)

Source: ACEA

All EU new-car markets contracted last month – apart from Ireland and Romania, which enjoyed year-on-year growth of 5.4% and 17.6% respectively. This renewed EU-wide downturn was to be expected given the year-on-year declines already reported in France, Italy, Spain, and even Germany in October.

Single-digit declines were reported in France, Germany and Italy, although the decline in Italy was just 0.2% and the result would have been positive (up by about 4%) had there not been one less working day. This follows the 9.5% growth in new-car registrations in September, due to the new government incentives that came into effect at the beginning of August as part of the Decreto Rilancio (Relaunch Decree). While the market still contracted in that month, demand improved but delivery times delayed many registrations until September and October.

On a less positive note, there was a double-digit decline of new-car registrations in Spain in October. The MOVES II and RENOVE schemes were introduced in July, and the new-car market saw a 1.1% increase in the month. Since then, however, there have been respective monthly declines of 10.1% and 13.5% in August and September, and now 21.0% in October. It is therefore clear that weak underlying consumer demand is the problem in the country. Measures to deal with the second wave of COVID-19 infections, and the calculation of the registration tax based on WLTP emissions figures from January 2021, are further complicating the recovery.

New-car registrations, year-on-year % change, October 2020 and year-to-date (YTD) 2020

New-car registrations, year-on-year % change, October 2020 and year-to-date graph

Source: ACEA

In the smaller EU member states, year-on-year contractions of more than 20% were reported in seven markets, including Finland, Slovakia and Slovenia. However, some markets were far more resilient, with downturns of less than 5% reported in Austria and Hungary.

Lockdown negativity replaces pent-up positivity

In the first 10 months of 2020, registrations of new cars in the EU fell by 26.8%. Even the market downturn in October continued the improvement in the year-to-date contractions, which bottomed out at 41.5% in the first five months of the year. The greatest loss among the major EU markets was in Spain, which has contracted by 36.8% in the year-to-date, ahead of only Croatia (down 43.5%) and Portugal (down 37.1%).

As the positive contribution of pent-up demand is ultimately exhausted, the second wave of COVID-19 infections, the severity, duration and geographic spread of lockdowns, and the economic fallout of COVID-19, will define how new-car markets perform in the remainder of 2020 and beyond. The key to recovery revolves around countries agreeing budgets for 2021, and improving economic certainty and consumer confidence to boost spending. The allocation of aid resources provided by the European Recovery Fund, agreed on 21 July, will also play a pivotal role in shaping the forward outlook for Europe’s new-car markets.

Manufacturer performance

Among the leading European carmakers, the BWW Group, Ford, Mazda, Mitsubishi and Nissan all registered more than 10% fewer new cars in the EU in October 2020 than in October 2019. Mazda suffered the greatest loss, with EU registrations down 38.0% year-on-year.

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) and the Renault Group, however, managed to register 3.9% and 0.2% more cars respectively in the EU than in October 2019. All other major manufacturers suffered single-digit declines of between 6.2% (Honda) and 9.7% (Jaguar Land Rover) in the month.

Across Europe, manufacturers with a strong electric-vehicle portfolio are expected to perform better than those without as electrically-chargeable vehicle (EV) consumers are less likely to be tempted by used cars instead of new. This is because they tend to be less price-sensitive buyers, but there is also limited availability of the latest electric models on the used-car market. In the year-to-date, Toyota is the best-performing manufacturer in the EU, albeit with registrations down 16.9%, supporting this hypothesis.

In a new video, Autovista Group Daily Brief editor Phil Curry talks through the latest registration figures in the big four EU markets and the UK.

November – Latest whitepaper update: How will COVID-19 shape used-car markets?

The latest edition of Autovista Group’s whitepaper: How will COVID-19 shape used-car markets? considers the second wave of coronavirus (COVID-19) infections across Europe. Out of the 18 markets covered, 10 have adopted a more negative view of overall economic scenario outcomes.

The latest update to the Autovista Group whitepaper covers such topics as:

Three-speed RVs: Europe’s used-car prices recover to pre-crisis levels
A golden age for used-car markets?
The double-edged sword of EV government incentives?
Coronavirus scenarios – how swiftly will economies recover?

Residual-value (RV) outlooks have changed. 10 of the countries tracked have now changed to a more favourable position for RVs in 2020 as the landscape for the year becomes clearer. Eight countries have also confirmed their RV outlooks for 2021 and 2022.

However, RVs are also under threat from government-backed incentive schemes, designed to help the automotive industry following extensive lockdowns earlier this year. Such grants favour the purchase of new vehicles, and Autovista Group has analysed the impact on the used-car market in different regions, focusing on internal combustion engine (ICE) and electric-vehicle (EV) models. The latter looks to be under more pressure, especially in two markets.

The whitepaper shows that a ‘two-speed’ market recovery continues in Europe. This year has seen most used-car markets fare particularly well, even above pre-COVID levels. However, this is largely driven by a run for cheaper, older vehicles, as many come to rely less on public transport through fear of contracting COVID-19. Young used cars, including those coming off-lease or released by rental firms, do not see such a level of recovery and are under pressure in a number of markets.

Yet some markets, such as in Southern Europe, will not be at pre-crisis levels by the end of 2022. There are already signs of the need for some downward market correction before the end of this year.

You can find more information about how different markets are shaping up, and the various economic scenarios across the region, in the latest update of the Autovista Group whitepaper – ‘How will COVID-19 shape used car markets’ – which can be viewed here.

LCV Marketplace Update November 2020

New Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Market

The light commercial vehicle (LCV) market grew for the second consecutive month in October, with the 28,753 registrations the highest performing on record for October. The 13.3% increase in registrations was driven by the heavier end of the van market ahead of an expected busy delivery period in the run up to Christmas. This is in contrast to a weaker October 2019, when the market was impacted by supply challenges linked to the introduction of WLTP compliant LCVs.

The second countrywide lockdown, social distancing measures, redundancies, Brexit and possible vehicle tariffs will all affect LCV demand for the remainder of this year and well into next year.

New LCV registrations graph November 2020

Year-to-date registrations to the of October have declined by 24.1%, with 236,833 units hitting UK roads (311,989 units – 2019). Breaking the month down by sectors reveals that registrations for pickups declined by a disappointing 31.8%, whilst vans under 2.0 tonnes, vans between 2.0-2.5 tonnes and vans between 2.5-3.5 tonnes increased by 1.6%, 2.9% and 26.8% respectively.

LCV top 5 registrations table November 2020

The quarter four SMMT LCV registration forecast for 2020 has just been issued and surprisingly shows an increase of 6.6% to 288,000 units. With a current shortfall of over 50,000 units, lead in delays on new stock, a shortage of vehicles at dealer level and two months left of the year, the new predictions would seem a tall order to achieve.

Moving into November, UK registrations remain over 24% down on the same point last year. The pandemic with the second English lockdown continues to seriously affect many businesses. Although September and October registrations were welcome boosts to the economy, it will take an exceptional boost to achieve the latest SMMT forecast.

The interconnected nature of the UK economy means that the demands of the latest lockdown and Brexit will bring opportunities and challenges in equal measure during the coming months.

October Used Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Overview

Performance in the LCV auction market remained exceptional in October with buyers exchanging high bids for retail-ready stock. The continuing stock shortages across all ages and sectors, driven by fleet extensions and increased rental demand, means vendors are currently in a very strong position. In the retail market, dealers are enjoying healthy profits as prices continue to rise. There is no change on the horizon, as prices look set to remain high for some time.

Euro 6 stock made up nearly 40% of all LCVs sold at auction during October, with an 88.9% first-time conversion rate. Much of this stock continues to support the increasing demand for home deliveries during the second lockdown and the run-up to Christmas.

The sustained appetite for retail-ready stock shows no sign of abating. Auction houses have adapted quickly during the pandemic, moving their business models online. Whilst dealers and traders, who historically attended physical sales to ‘touch the metal’, now buy online with confidence. In return, many dealers are offering retail customers ‘click and collect’ online services adhering to current government guidelines.

October in detail

Glass’s auction data results show the overall number of LCV sales in October fell by 8.4% versus September 2020 and were down 2.0% versus October 2019. First-time conversions were up 2.5% on September to 89.9% – the second-highest level in the last twelve months – and up 4.3% versus October 2019.

Since March this year, average sales prices have risen 33.6%, with October 4.5% up on September and 36.3% up on the same point last year. October prices were at the highest level for the last twelve months. The average age of sold stock rose from 69.7 months in September to 72.4 months in October, whilst this figure was 0.7 months lower than the same point last year.

In line with this older vehicle age profile, average mileages for those vehicles sold increased from 70,457 miles in September to 73,438 miles in October. Remarkably, the October average mileage is nearly 7,250 miles lower than at the same point last year.

Glass’s continues to monitor the LCV market closely and has an open dialogue with auction houses and manufacturers, leasing and rental companies, independent traders and dealers as well as the main industry bodies. This information, combined with the wealth of knowledge in our CV team ensures Glass’s valuations remain relevant in the market place.

New Car Market Update October 2020

Following September, new car registrations in October had a relatively low bar to clear to eclipse last year’s total, due to the WLTP emissions testing challenges faced in 2019. However, once again registrations failed to match last year’s figure coming in 1.6% lower at 140,945, according to the latest figures published by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). This was the lowest October total for nine years and over 10% lower than the average October total over the last decade.

There was potential for an uptick in October, but with the Welsh lockdown towards the end of the month hitting registrations in the region by up to 25%, any momentum fizzled out. On a positive note, October was the least-worse month-on-month comparison versus 2019 (see chart below). The year to date registration total is now down 31%.

Total new car registrations monthly graph November 2020

Data courtesy of SMMT

Pure petrol cars saw a 21.3% reduction while diesel fell a significant 38.4% and accounted for just 14.9% of the new car market in October. However, large increases in mild-hybrid (MHEV) models mitigate these figures as they jumped significantly compared to last October, with petrol MHEV up 545.8% and Diesel MHEV up 56.6%. This shift has played out all year as shown in the year-to-date chart below, as car manufacturers continue to reduce CO2 outputs using mild-hybrid technologies.

New car market fuel type ytd % change graph November 2020

Data courtesy of SMMT

Despite the year’s very low total registration figure, the bright spot continues to be alternative fuel vehicles, especially Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs). With the registration total of BEVs almost trebling in October compared to last year. The adoption of BEVs is higher in the fleet market, with 43,146 cars registered year-to-date compared to the private market at 26,682. Benefit in kind (BIK) taxation benefits and product confidence make the BEV proposition more compelling to company car users. For private retail customers, the lack of taxation savings, higher list prices (versus internal combustion engine vehicles), lack of knowledge of both longer driving ranges and the potential for the total cost of ownership savings, makes the BEV purchase proposition more difficult for private consumers with the increased upfront financial burden.

Car Market Overview November 2020

To adhere to the latest government imposed COVID-19 lockdown, on November 5 car dealers in England temporarily closed their physical sales operations for the second time in a year. Lockdown-2 follows similarly enhanced social restrictions seen in other parts of the UK. Despite this economic setback, many dealers continue to offer cars for sale through ‘click and collect’. However, even with these strategies in place, Glass’s still expects a significant impact on UK dealer’s profits.

To support businesses throughout this period the Government has extended the Furlough scheme, which will be welcome news. However, this extension does not only cover the four-week lockdown, it will last until the end of March 2021. This has raised anxiety amongst business leaders that extended restrictions may affect businesses via full lockdowns or changes to the local tiered alert system.

The tier system was in place in October, affecting different regions in England in a variety of ways, although not affecting car dealers and other ‘non-essential’ retail outlets. In other parts of the UK, restrictions required dealers to close. This impacted new car sales during this period. According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), the new car market fell by 1.6% in October, to just under 141,000 registrations, marking a nine-year low. The year to date registration total now sits almost 621,000 below last year, a drop of 31%.

The wholesale auction market continued with strength in the early days of October, but conversion rates began falling as the month went on. It seems that many dealers felt they had the correct level of stock and began ‘cherry-picking’ as a result. As is common when dealers become more selective, vehicle condition becomes more important, with cars with higher auction condition grades falling out of favour, either receiving no bids or disproportionately low offers. Glass’s understands that sold volume increased slightly in October compared to last year but first-time conversion rates fell by five percentage points, to 80%.

Although there is a high level of uncertainty in the current new and used car markets, dealers should take some comfort from how trading bounced back following the end of Lockdown-1. However, with the latest lockdown due to end in December, which is typically a slower retail month due to the pressures of Christmas, Glass’s does not expect retail activity to be as strong. That said, we expect wholesale trading to remain reasonably positive, as dealers build stock for the important post-Christmas and early new year period.

Explaining October’s registration figures

In October, none of the big five European markets achieved a positive increase in registrations. With markets entering various states of lockdown to ease a second wave of coronavirus (COVID-19) infections in November, the picture for the rest of 2020 could become murkier still. Autovista Group Daily Brief editor Phil Curry guides you through the figures in the latest registrations round up.

To get notifications for all the latest videos, you can subscribe for free to the Autovista Group Daily Brief YouTube channel. There you will find videos on a range of subjects including autonomous vehicles, new-car registrations, safety systems, and electrification.

Volvo recalls 120,000 cars globally after airbag defect

Volvo Cars is undertaking a global recall of its S60 and S80 models built between 2001 and 2003 due to an airbag defect, Autovista Group has learned.

‘The recall is global and in total around 120,000 cars will be recalled from markets with hot and humid conditions,’ the carmaker confirmed to Autovista Group’s Daily Brief. ‘All affected owners will be contacted directly by Volvo.’

The move looks to tackle an airbag defect which has already been linked to one fatality in the US. Documents published by the country’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), describe the potential for the driver side airbag inflator to rupture, causing fragments to be expelled on deployment.

This process has already begun, with the manufacturer reaching out to owners of the S60 and S80 models. According to NHTSA documents, Volvo plans to replace the faulty unit with modern propellant and inflator.

‘After being notified by Volvo in August 2019 of a field incident where it appeared that a specific type of airbag inflator ruptured upon deployment, ZF promptly informed the NHTSA and, together with Volvo, began investigating the incident,’ the airbag provider told the Daily Brief. ‘As a company committed to safety, ZF will continue to work closely with NHTSA and Volvo on this issue.’

Hot and humid conditions

The report lays out that when the faulty airbag’s propellant tablets are subjected to increased moisture levels and frequent high-inflator temperatures, the tablets can start to decay and form dust particles. Also, when exposed to increased temperatures, moisture leaves the tablet and when cooled down is absorbed and accumulated on its surface.

This localisation of moisture leads to ‘volumetric changes of the tablet’s surface,’ creating dust. This dust increases burn surface area and burn rate. This can result in higher combustion chamber pressure and the risk of inflator rupture.

‘In the event of a crash were the driver airbag is activated, fragments of the inflator inside the airbag may, in certain cases, project out and in worst case strike you, potentially resulting in serious injury or death,’ the US recall notice states.

The carmaker and the NHTSA have had meetings about the airbag fault since August 2019.

The agency confirmed that one person in the US died when a ZF/TRW FG2 twin driver airbag inflator containing the propellant 5AT-148N exploded. The government body said this was the only known fatality for this type of inflator globally.

Takata troubles

The development is reminiscent of the ongoing global recall due to an airbag issue by Takata. According to the NHTSA, it affected tens of millions of vehicles, from 19 different automakers. These airbags were recalled because they could explode when deployed, causing serious injury or even death.

Video: Emissions anxiety for carmakers

Autovista Group Daily Brief editor Phil Curry explains why some carmakers are concerned about rising CO2 levels, and how the industry has got to this point with a strict European target in place…

To get notifications for all the latest videos, you can subscribe for free to the Autovista Group Daily Brief YouTube channel. There you will also find videos on a range of subjects including autonomous vehicles, new-car registrations, safety systems, and electrification.

Podcast: Tracking automotive markets, recalls and emissions

In its latest podcast, the Autovista Group Daily Brief team discusses the new Monthly Market Dashboard, plug-in hybrid (PHEV) recalls and manufacturer emissions targets…Autovista Group · Tracking automotive markets, recalls and emissions

https://soundcloud.com/autovistagroup/mmd-recalls-and-emissions

You can also listen and subscribe to receive further episodes direct to your mobile device on Apple, Spotify, Google Podcasts and search for Autovista Group Podcast on Amazon Music.

Click here to access our Brexit survey, and tell us how the negotiation uncertainty and the UK leaving the EU is impacting your business and industry.

Brexit survey: have your say

There are only 70 days until the UK’s Brexit transition period with the European Union (EU) comes to an end. Currently, there is still no certainty on future trading relationships, or how the UK setting its own regulations will affect businesses and technology developments in the coming years.

Autovista Group wants your views on Brexit, from the impact a ‘no-deal’ would have on the automotive industry in both Europe and the UK, to your opinions on how the two parties have managed the process.

Click here to access our Brexit survey, and tell us how the negotiation uncertainty and the UK leaving the EU is impacting your business and industry.

Modern classics soaring in desirability

Classic car ownership has never been so popular. Many collectors aspire to own popular models like Jaguar’s enigmatic E-Type Lightweight or Ford’s Capri. Whilst gaining ownership of the Capri might at least be possible for some, with price tags starting around £1,000,000, the very special E-Type is out of reach for those on a budget. Even standard E-Type’s have asking prices starting around £50,000, with some currently advertised at more than double that level. Due to COVID-19, there is the potential that an increased volume of classic cars will rotate back into the marketplace, as the economy bites and unemployment rises.

As we look ahead and consider the classic cars of the future, it is worth considering some of the elements that make them appealing in the first place. It helps if they are a good-looking car, and a sporting pedigree often enhances appeal and value. However, possibly more important is that people have an emotional connection with the model. Today, it is increasingly apparent that a special reminder of one’s youth is highly prized.

Finally, the scarcity of a model has a major effect on desirability and value. Strangely, it also helps that many of the cars considered classics today, were not built to a high standard. Due to this, many were destined for early graves at the scrapyard.

In the year 2000, there were 24.4 million cars on UK roads. In 2019, there were nearly 32 million. Interestingly, the proportion of older cars has increased, with just over 2.3 million cars over 13 years of age in 2000, increasing to over 6 million in 2019. Saving old cars of interest has become big business, fuelled by an ever-increasing nostalgia for modern classics. Ford Escorts and Fiestas, Volkswagen Golfs, and Peugeot 205 GTis from the eighties and nineties are highly desirable today.

Glass’s Leisure Vehicles Editor Paul McDonald said, “Following a significant boost in registrations over the last few months, a slow-down in September was not unexpected, as recent growth was partly a result of pent-up demand following lockdown. So, to see the increases continue is great news”.

With the major auction groups continuing to hold only online sales, some buyers continue to be wary about spending substantial amounts of money on vehicles they have seen in person. However, this trust continues to improve as buyers become more accepting of the descriptions provided by the auction houses.

Additional factors affecting the popularity of older cars

By the mid-nineties, car build quality and reliability had improved dramatically whilst the driveability of cars had also taken a step forward. New cars of today continue these improvements, but many people are choosing to look for older, more characterful cars to drive every day. This is not only down to the price, fueling the demand many enthusiasts strive to drive something unique and with historical interest.

There is no definitive age that identifies a classic car. Many hold the view that a modern classic will be at least 15 years of age, and a classic must be at least 25 years old. However, if you use car tax exemption as a guide, then the car needs to be at least 40 years old.

Many people find driving a modern classic car is without status, which is a very desirable commodity in today’s world. Especially if a modern classic is relatively easy to afford. So, looking ahead, there are models that could already be considered modern classics. It is also worth remembering that with improved build quality more survivors of each vehicle could also affect the future asking prices.

The following examples are all over 15 years of age and remarkably can be bought today for under £1,000. As beauty is in the eye of the beholder, the decision on whether they are a modern classic is yours.

2003 Jaguar S-Type V6 SE Plus £999
2003 Mercedes-Benz SLK200 Kompressor £995
2001 Audi TT 1.8T Quattro 2dr £999
2000 Land Rover Discovery GS £995
2004 MG TF 1.8 £990

Automotive industry worries as Brexit no-deal seems likely

With a deadlock in Brexit trade-deal negotiations following the passing of a UK-imposed deadline, both the British and European automotive industries are nervous about the looming threat of a no-deal scenario.

Last week, the UK government signalled that ‘the talks are over’ in regards to a free-trade agreement with the European Union (EU). Prime Minister Boris Johnson added that the country has to ‘get ready’ to trade in 2021 without an agreement, although stopping short of confirming that discussions would not resume. Government television messages are running in the UK warning businesses to get ready for change from 1 January 2021.

While the EU is keen to continue talking, the UK government is now giving businesses in the country warning that the likelihood of any deal is diminishing rapidly, and they should prepare for tariffs and customs checks. For the automotive industry, which relies on competitive pricing and ‘just-in-time’ deliveries, this is a hammer blow – particularly for those companies based in Britain.

Government response

The UK is looking for a ‘Canada-style’ deal. The EU’s agreement with Canada is called the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), which removes most tariffs, but not all, while increasing quotas, meaning more goods can be shipped before tariffs are applied. Instead, it looks likely that an Australian-style deal will be adopted. This means tariffs on imports and exports to and from the EU, together with stricter customs checks at borders.

‘We were totally clear that we wanted nothing more complicated than a Canada-style relationship, based on friendship and free trade,’ Johnson said last week. ‘To judge by the latest EU summit in Brussels, that won’t work for our EU partners. They want the continued ability to control our legislative freedom, our fisheries, in a way that is obviously unacceptable to an independent country.

‘Given that they have refused to negotiate seriously for much of the last few months, and given that this summit appears explicitly to rule out a Canada-style deal, I have concluded that we should get ready for 1 January with arrangements that are more like Australia’s, based on simple principles of global free trade.’

The Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Michael Gove, added: ‘At the end of this year we [the UK] are leaving the EU Single Market and Customs Union and this means there are both new challenges and new opportunities for businesses. Make no mistake, changes are coming in just 75 days and time is running out for businesses to act.

‘It is on all of us to put in the work now so that we can embrace the new opportunities available to an independent trading nation with control of its own borders, territorial waters and laws.’

Automotive outcry

Numerous carmakers and suppliers have stated over pat months that should a no-deal occur, they would seriously consider their manufacturing positions in the UK. In contrast, others have highlighted the problems that such a scenario would pose on importing items into the country.

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) has stated that with tariffs added, the cost of a UK-built car could rise by as much as £2,700 (€3,000). Recently, it was reported that Toyota and Nissan would look for compensation from the UK government should such costs be added, as to export their vehicles for sale in the EU with tariffs added would make them less competitive than those from European-based marques.

Volkswagen has warned that it would be unable to absorb any tariffs placed on vehicle imports. The carmaker has no manufacturing presence in the UK. As the country’s second-largest brand by market share (according to SMMT figures), it is possible the company will look to stockpile vehicles in the country before the end of the transition period.

Responding to the Prime Minister’s statement, Mike Hawes, chief executive of the SMMT, said: ‘Make no mistake, the automotive industry will not prosper from ‘no deal’. It would have a devastating impact on the sector, on the economy, and on jobs in every region of Britain.

‘Businesses have been battling coronavirus at the same time as investing heavily in decarbonisation, all while preparing as best they can for a seismic change in trading conditions come year-end. But to avoid permanent damage, we urge both sides to keep talking, to remain calm but work with renewed vigour on a deal that supports automotive, a sector that is Britain’s biggest exporter of goods and one of the UK and Europe’s most valuable economic assets.’

According to Reuters, when asked about Brexit trade talks at a recent speaking event, Daimler chairman Ola Källenius– said: ‘I am hoping for last-minute common sense,’ before confirming that the company ‘would have to live with tariffs’ and has no plans to open any manufacturing plants in the UK to avoid them.

Bentley chief executive Adrian Hallmark told Reuters that a Brexit no-deal would be ‘extremely damaging’ for the Volkswagen Group-owned luxury carmaker.

‘If you took the duties on components, 45% of the bits we buy in, and the 10% tariff on cars, worst-case scenario, it would take out a significant percentage of our profits,’ he said. ‘(It) would probably ACEA appeals to EU

Furthermore, the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) has written to Brussels urging the EU parliament to ‘reconsider its position’ on a trade deal with the UK, according to the Financial Times

The body’s demands include the EU lowering the percentage of components in a car that must be either European or British for the vehicle to qualify for the benefits of any EU-UK trade deal, a process known as ‘cumulation’. ACEA is also seeking a ‘phase-in period’ of these new rules to help the industry adapt to the changed business environment.

The EU looks unlikely to sanction parts from Japan and Turkey that could count towards ‘local-parts’ figures. Manufacturers with plants based in the UK will need to prove that exported goods are actually British-made, with a specified threshold of British parts. Should the threshold not be met, tariffs will be included on exports, even if a trade deal is in place.

Brussels has proposed that non-UK/non-EU content be limited to 45% of the car, a figure ACEA wants pushed up to 50% ‘in line with the UK’s position.’

Autovista Group is keen to hear your views on Brexit and the effect it will have on both the UK and Europe. Look out for our in-depth Brexit survey launching tomorrow (22 October) and make sure you have your say.

Motorcycle Market Update October 2020

Following a significant year on year registration increase in July and August (up 42% and 32% respectively), data published by the Motorcycle Industry Association (MCIA) shows that registrations grew by a more modest but still impressive 11.7% in September. Six out of the nine sales categories recorded growth with mopeds enjoying the strongest increase, followed by scooters.

Engine band highest registered models – September 2020

Power Band Model

0-50cc Lexmoto ECHO PLUS 50
51-125cc Honda CB 125F
126-650cc Royal Enfield INTERCEPTOR INT 650
651-1000cc Yamaha TENERE 700
Over 1000cc BMW R1250 GS ADVENTURE

Data courtesy of the MCIA

The used car retail market is showing similar recovery behaviour to the wholesale market. The key measures – Average Sale Price and Days-to-Sell are both positive. Just like the auction market, their rate of recovery is slowing, suggesting they are approaching their natural level.

Glass’s Live Retail pricing tool reports on the average time a car spends on the forecourt, with lower days to sell indicating higher retail demand. The average for July of 59.1 days is still 30% higher than expected, but in the circumstances is a distinct improvement over June’s average of 81.9 days. If the decreases continue over the coming weeks the value for August will be similar to August 2019.

New motorcycle market

Sales and demand remained buoyant throughout September, although some dealers reported a slow-down towards the end of the month. Concerns remain regarding the economy, especially how additional COVID-19 restrictions will affect the industry moving into 2021. Despite this, given the average riding age of 56, there is optimism that a significant proportion of motorcycle consumers are financially stable enough to support sales momentum moving forward.

What can the industry expect moving forward?

The industry has already demonstrated its resilience with sales and demand exceeding expectations. However, COVID-19 continues to be a major issue. Given this, the outlook for the final quarter of 2020 remains uncertain. The Glass’s editorial team will continue to monitor all of the market dynamics during the next few months.

Used motorcycle market

With autumn now fully with us, dealers are experiencing a slow-down in enquiries. However, the used market remains remarkably resilient, potentially even more so than new. With consumers having more time on their hands, saving money not taking holidays and unable to participate in certain hobbies, some dealers hold the view that increased numbers have taken up riding as an alternative, contributing towards recent sales growth.

Top-selling models

For dealers with major cities in their catchment areas, scooters and 125cc machines remain in strong demand, a result of commuters choosing to ride to work as an alternative to public transport. However, demand continues to be largely buoyant across the board, with the adventure and naked segments being particularly strong.

Stock

Glass’s has received mixed feedback regarding stock availability from dealers. Although there have been improvements, some dealers continue to find locating quality used motorcycle stock a challenge, particularly 125cc machines. Compounding this issue, some riders are choosing to privately sell their old machines rather than part-exchange. However, despite these issues, many larger dealers are currently satisfied with their stock levels.

Sales activity

Sales remained positive into October with no dealers reporting a significant decline. However, with October’s weather becoming more autumnal and the heightened economic uncertainty, many values have been eased back for the November guide, except where trade feedback and evidence from the market place has suggested further adjustment is necessary. Exceptions to this are mopeds, scooters and commuter machines where values have been held.

Used Car Market Update October 2020

Auction Wholesale Market

A degree of stability seems to be returning to the UK used car auction market. Whilst the key measures of First Time Conversion Rate, Percentage of Original Cost New, and Sales Volume Index all dipped slightly in August, they all recovered in September and continue to exceed the figures achieved in the same month last year. Of course, with all the ongoing uncertainty in the world, it is too early to state that we are back to normal, but it is encouraging to see that despite all the challenges the auction market is still performing well.

First time conversion rate graph October 2020

Percentage original cost new graph October 2020

The rapid post-lockdown recovery was, at least in part, driven by a need to re-stock sites and feed pent up retail demand. Virtually every car offered received multiple bids and anything desirable was selling for very strong money. This slowed, and feedback from the market suggests that buyers are becoming a little more selective in what they buy. Desirable retail stock is still selling well at auction, moving quickly and for good money, but the less desirable stock is starting to become harder work. Cars with damage or less appealing specification can struggle to even get a bid, and those that do sell are not achieving the sort of money they would have two to three months ago.

In terms of what is popular, SUVs continue to sell well. Convertible hammer prices are weakening, no doubt due to the change in season, although they are still selling. Despite all the media hype and their apparent popularity in the new market, alternatively fuelled cars continue to challenge vendors in auction channels. This could be because the latest generation vehicles have much longer ranges and quicker charging times than those typically found in the used market, making them appear less desirable and thus perhaps worth less than the vendors may be hoping… Also, the restrictions around leisure activities have meant reduced demand for taxis and minicabs, which have become biased more towards low emission cars in recent years.

Used Retail Market

The used Retail market is also showing signs of stabilising, with the number of sales observations and the average sale price for September being very similar to those in August. The number of observations is still lower than for the same month last year, down just over 10%, but the average sale price is 5.8% higher, even though the average age of the cars sold was 47.5 months, almost 20% higher than the 39.8 months reported for September 2019.

Used car market retail observations graph October 2020

Used car market average sale price October 2020

Glass’s live retail pricing tool GlassNet Radar also shows that the average time a car spends on the forecourt continues to decrease. At 37.7 days it is 8.1% lower than the 41.0 days reported for the same month last year, and a notable 17% improvement over August’s 45.5 days. This is a good indication that there continues to be a healthy retail demand for used cars.

Used car market average days to sell October 2020

Outlook

Taken at face value, the metrics for both the wholesale and retail markets suggest that October will be another promising month. However, we continue to live in uncertain times and the recent lockdown announcements may likely slow down the recovery, especially in those regions that are seeing more stringent conditions. More transactions are now carried out remotely though, not just for the wholesale market but also for retail, and this may lessen that impact. We are also heading into the final few months of the year which traditionally means a slowing down of the market, especially if we have “proper” winter weather. So, as we head into the final quarter of what has been an extraordinary year the only thing we can be certain of is that the used car markets – both wholesale and retail – are as unpredictable as they have been for most of this year. Of course, Glass’s Editorial team will continue to monitor activity and share what they find.

Secret Diary of a Forecast Editor October 2020

Today, already the world is a very different place following the Covid-19 outbreak, and it looks like it will be some time before we get back to a degree of normality.

Over the past six months, since major lockdown restrictions first came into force, the automotive industry has become a very different place to work. Before March this year, a large part of the role of a Glass’s forecast editor involved meeting manufacturers to discuss new products and test-driving new models coming to market. Since the lockdown came into force, this has not been possible physically, so that all parties remain safe and healthy.

However, new models continue to come to market and the team to continue to have discussions with manufacturers virtually instead of physically. The following are two models that have launched recently.

Citroen C4

Over the past few years, PSA has found its design mojo again. Some of their models have been seriously good and the new Citroen C4 appears to be another excellent offering. It bears little resemblance to the previous version, which was a very ordinary hatchback.

The new C4 is a mix of a family hatchback and Crossover SUV. PSA have delivered excellent exterior styling and every time I see it, I find new things that I like about it. The interior is just as impressive with some features that will prove popular with consumers. For instance, PSA has taken the climate controls out of the touch screen and replaced it with simple controls on the lower dash. This shows that PSA continues to respond to customer feedback, which is great to see.

The C4 is available with petrol and diesel drivetrains and as the e-C4 full-electric version. The car uses the same platform as the Peugeot 208/2008 models and gets the same 50kWh battery that offers over 200 miles of range (WLTP). The C4 does not try to be sporty like many rivals; it just offers plenty of comfort and practicality, ideal for young families. It comes in four trim levels, Sense, Sense Plus, Shine and Shine Plus. The e-C4 starts at Sense plus trim.

Prices start at £20,990 for the Sense PureTech petrol 100 S&S 6-speed manual and top out at £34,330 (excluding the government grant) for the top of the range Shine Plus electric vehicle with 50kW battery.

Skoda Enyaq

The Enyaq is the first full-electric car from Skoda. It is an SUV, which Skoda claims, is as spacious as their bigger Kodiaq model.

The Enyaq is a great looking car, and even better, it has a range option of over 300 miles meaning that even I could live with it. Even better yet, the 300-mile range version comes in at a price tag of £38,950 making it even more attractive.

There are two standard versions available, both of which are RWD; the first version named the 60, has a 62kWh battery, a range of 242 miles and around 180bhp. Then there is the 80 version which has an 82kWh battery and around 204bhp with the extended range of 316 miles. The starting price of the 60 is £33,450 and the 80 starts at £38,950. The 60 and the 80 standard vehicles come in three trim levels; Loft is the standard interior trim but you can select the Lounge trim for an additional £1,115 or Suite for £1,285.

The standard equipment is very good even on the cheapest model and the different trims are just design and material differences rather than additional equipment. Standard on the 60 are things such as 13-inch infotainment screen, ambient interior lighting, rear parking sensors, air-con and a multifunction leather steering wheel. The 80 adds navigation to the infotainment system, heated steering wheel, plus front parking sensors and a rear-view camera. There are then a set of packages to offer options such as heated front seats and keyless entry. All models come as standard with the capability to take 50kW charging and you can upgrade the charging system to take 100kW on the 60 and 125kW on the 80.

Designed for practicality and value rather than speed, it has a 0-62mph time of just over 8 seconds and a maximum speed of 99mph. However, the biggest issue will probably be trying to get one, as they will be extremely popular.

LCV Marketplace Update October 2020

New Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Market

The light commercial vehicle (LCV) sector is proving resilient in these challenging times, however, there is still much to contend with as we move into the last quarter of 2020. From new social distancing measures, redundancies, the end of the furlough scheme and of course Brexit, all will have an effect on the LCV market and the wider economy. The new plate month of September is typically a strong month, this year returning an encouraging 26.4% growth in demand for LCVs. Overall, 52,096 new LCVs hit UK roads during the month, as all sectors bar-one returned increases in registrations. With the coronavirus lockdown easing and businesses back to work, it is encouraging to record a 7.1% growth in the new light commercial vehicle market. This follows four months of double-digit decline. Overall, 27,701 new LCVs were registered during the month, with growth in all but the Vans under 2.0-tonnes sector.

LCV new registrations graph October 2020

The first three quarters of 2020 have seen year-to-date registrations decline by 27.4%, with 208,080 units hitting UK roads (286,616 units – 2019). Breaking the month down by sectors reveals that registrations for pickups, vans between 2.0-2.5 tonnes and vans between 2.5-3.5 tonnes increased by 10.9%, 11.6% and 40.9% respectively. A 2.5% decline for vans under 2.0 tonnes was the only disappointment. It is important to note that these increases are set against a backdrop of a weak September 2019 driven by the introduction of WLTP for LCVs, with September 2020 registrations still 3.3% down on 2018.

Top five LCV registrations

Top 5 LCV registrations table October 2020

For quarter three 2020, the current SMMT LCV registration forecast is down 26.3% to 269,000 units. With the final forecast for 2020 due at the end of October, it is, unfortunately, unlikely to show any improvement over the current forecast.

As we move into October, UK registrations remain nearly 30% down on the same point last year. The pandemic continues to affect many businesses with the stop-start nature of localised lockdowns affecting many towns and cities around the UK. Although September was a positive step in the right direction, it will remain a tall order to meet the current SMMT forecast.

The interconnected nature of the UK economy means that the unknown nature of Brexit and the end of the furlough scheme will bring further uncertainty in the coming months. Moving forward, operators are starting to look more seriously at more environmentally friendly technologies to meet fleet requirements. This will be critical in the crucial role light commercial vehicles play in the UK economy.

September Used Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Overview

The used LCV market continued to deliver outstanding performance during September, with weakness seen only in the minibus sector due to passenger movement restrictions.

Stock shortages driven partly by fewer de-fleets, economic uncertainty and increased demand for used LCVs was the catalyst for the strong month, along with uncertainty over future vehicle supplies. Pent up demand and the volatile world that we currently live in, means that prices are likely to remain high for some time to come.

There seems to be no better time to sell an LCV, with dealers enjoying a buoyant retail market and healthy profits as a result. Rental demand is also high supporting increased home deliveries, with some vehicles earmarked for auction, actually being re-fleeted to meet demand. This trend is likely to increase in the run-up to Christmas.

September in detail

Glass’s auction data results show the overall number of LCV sales in September was up 15.9% versus August 2020 and up a staggering 57.4% versus September 2019. First-time conversions were down slightly at 87.4% compared to 88.0% in August, but up 9.0% versus September last year.

There is a continued appetite for good quality stock requiring the minimum of retail preparation across all ages. Supporting this enthusiasm is the continued high number of online buyers reported by the auction houses. Since March this year, average sales prices have risen over 30%, with September alone recording an 8.3% increase versus August and a 31.2% increase on the same point last year. September prices were at the highest level for the last twelve months.

The average age of sold stock dropped from 72.4 months in August to 69.7 months in September. This figure was 0.9 months higher than the same point last year.

Average mileage for sold vehicles dropped from 73,634 miles in August to 70,457 miles in September. This is the lowest average mileage recorded in the last twelve months and over 10,000 miles less than at the same point last year.

The Van’s Headlights: Mitsubishi Shogun Barbarian

The Van’s Headlights

Our research data for the summer months normally shows a lull in used vehicle activity followed by a flood of activity and increased sales in September. However, the pandemic has seen demand and prices soar through the summer. Closure of manufacturing plants and the effects on the wider economy resulting in delayed fleet replacement cycles used stock shortages and uncertainty over future supply. This has led to a surge in demand for used light commercial vehicles (LCVs) and correspondingly huge increases in conversion rates and average selling prices over the last few months.

In this month’s edition of The Van’s Headlights, the team consider the merits of the Mitsubishi Shogun Barbarian 3.2DI-DC 187bhp Auto Euro 6 SWB Commercial (2015 – 2019).

The Mitsubishi Shogun

The roots of the Mitsubishi Shogun (also known as Pajero and Montero in other markets) can be traced back to 1934, when Mitsubishi’s first 4WD vehicle, the PX33 prototype was built. However, it wasn’t until November 1979 that the Shogun prototype was revealed at the Tokyo Motor Show.

The Mitsubishi Shogun launched as a multi-purpose vehicle in 1982. A completely new genre of 4WD combining off-road toughness and capability with the comfort, handling and specification of a saloon. Short wheelbase (SWB) and long-wheelbase (LWB) models were available with either 2.6-litre petrol or a 2.5-litre diesel turbo engine.

Further generations of the Shogun passenger vehicles appeared in 1991 and 1999, but it wasn’t until 2004 that the first commercial variants of the Shogun were introduced in the UK.

Designed with the same reputation for reliability and build quality, the Shogun commercial was available as SWB and LWB vans with two trim levels, Equippe and Classic. With both manual and automatic transmissions available with both featuring the much revered Super Select four-wheel-drive system. The choice of four different driving modes; 2H (2WD high range), 4H (4WD high range), 4HLc (4WD high range with locked centre differential) and 4LLc (4WD low range with locked centre differential) made the Shogun Commercial an ideal choice for those needing to take to rougher terrain.

The 3.2DI-DC 158bhp double overhead camshaft (DOHC) engine was introduced in 2007 improving power, torque and driver comfort.

In 2010, Mitsubishi introduced a Euro 5 compliant 3.2DI-DC DOHC engine, again mated to either a manual or automatic transmission, but this time generating 197bhp with an increase in torque. It was at this time Mitsubishi introduced higher specification Warrior and Barbarian trim levels on the SWB 4×4 van.

A facelift in 2015 saw the introduction of an improved monocoque body with a revised grille for the Shogun Commercial, together with a Euro 6 3.2DI-DC automatic engine generating 187bhp with Mitsubishi discontinuing the manual gearbox in favour of an all-automatic line-up. At the same time, revised suspension improved ride and handling whilst LED lighting improved night time vision. A new spare wheel carrier on the tailgate also featured in this facelift.

The SG2 4Work replaced the Equippe as the entry model and was available as a SWB or LWB model, whilst the halo Warrior and Barbarian trims remained available in SWB formats only. SWB models could tow a maximum of 3.0 tonnes and the LWB SG2, 3.5 tonnes.

A capable all-rounder

Andy Picton, Glass’s Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor recommends the Mitsubishi Shogun Commercial as “an extremely capable and rugged off-road van with great towing capabilities. The Shogun is recognised as a credible alternative to the Land Rover Discovery and is a popular choice with the police and the Highways Agency, as well as in construction and agricultural markets”

Andy added, “Although no longer available new, the Shogun is supported by a strong Mitsubishi dealer network. It has a loyal following in the used market, with buyers attracted to its high specification levels, powerful and torquey 3.2DI-DC engine and its ability to tow up to 3.5 tonnes”.

Peugeot Bipper Professional 1.3HDi 80bhp Euro 6 van (2016 – 2017)

The Mitsubishi Shogun Commercial range

Two body styles
5-speed automatic gearbox
Three trim levels
Euro 6 engine line up
Up to 3.5-tonnes towing capability

There were three models in the 2015-2018 Shogun Commercial van range – SG2 4Work, Warrior and Barbarian. All models were powered by the same 3.2DI-DC 187bhp Euro 6 engine, with automatic transmission. A high level of standard specification taken from the car featured in the commercial variant and included, Mitsubishi Active Stability and Traction Control (M-ASTC), ABS brakes with electronic brake-force distribution (EBD), driver and passenger airbags, 18” alloy wheels, heated seats, heated and electric wing mirrors, Bluetooth with music streaming, auto lights and wipers, cruise control and a leather-covered steering wheel.

Additionally, the recommended 2018 Shogun Barbarian SWB Auto added as standard; climate control, black leather heated seats, 20” alloy wheels, Touchscreen DAB radio with MP3 player and USB port, satellite navigation system, reversing camera, steering wheel controls, front fog lights, tyre pressure monitoring system, tailgate privacy glass, alarm and exterior chrome detailing.

Shogun SWB Dimensions	Shogun SWB Load Space	Shogun SWB Miscellaneous
Length	4, 386mm	Length	840mm	Gross Vehicle Weight	2,665kg
Width	1,875mm	Max Width	1,395mm	Payload	480kg
Height	1,870mm	Width between arches	1,395mm	Warranty	5yrs/62,500m
Wheelbase	2,545mm	Height	1,105mm	Service Intervals	12,500m
		Volume	1.3m3

2016 Pros	2016 Cons
Powerful engine with plenty of torque	Thirsty engine
Great off-road capabilities	Disappointing payload
Good level of standard specification	Battery can fail due to insufficient charge
Responsive and smooth automatic gearbox	High running costs
Superb Super Select 4WD system	The single hinged rear door is heavy
Good all-round visibility	Opening the rear door can be an issue in tight spaces
No AdBlue Good level of standard safety features

Glass’s recommendation

Mitsubishi Shogun Barbarian 3.2DI-DC 187bhp Auto Euro 6 SWB Commercial

Registration Plate: 2018/18

Mileage: 30,000 miles

Glass’s Trade £20,500 Excl VAT

Glass’s Retail £22,800 Excl VAT

Motorcycle Market Update September 2020

Significant year on year increases in motorcycle registrations in July and August are boosting the motorcycle market following the national lockdown. Data published by the Motorcycle Industry Association (MCIA) shows that registrations grew 32% compared to August 2019, with all categories recording an increase. Once again it is the scooter category recording the strongest growth.

Glass’s Leisure Vehicles Editor Paul McDonald said, “After a huge boost in July registrations, further growth was hoped for in August, albeit not quite to the same level. However, a 32% increase was incredible news. The question today is will this resurgence last in the face of recession and an uncertain UK job market?”

Engine band highest registered models – August 2020

New market

Sales and demand remained strong throughout August. The main focus continues to be the 125cc and commuter markets, although middle weights and larger machines also did well. However, the main issue is a shortage of new machines, with uncertain factory lead times, and some dealers quoting dates early next year for deliveries of certain models.

What can the industry expect moving forward?

Forecast demand is likely to create challenges for dealers into next year. The Glass’s editorial team will follow the market with interest over the final quarter, as summer turns to autumn and the furlough scheme closes with the inevitability of redundancies. Glass’s view is that while there is a reasonable chance commuter and 125cc sales will remain buoyant for the rest of the year, demand for the higher end of the market could decline more rapidly than typically expected during autumn.

Used Market

Since motorcycle dealers reopened following lockdown, the used market has remained busy with strong sales and enquiries throughout August. However, dealers are starting to experience quieter periods, typical in a ‘normal’ year, with August and September holidays. As increasing numbers of employees return to work they continue to seek alternatives to public transport raising expectations that for the remainder of the year, the commuter market will remain buoyant in the used market too. CBT training centres remain busy, good news for the industry’s future, with the potential of at least some new riders progressing to full licences. With the average rider age now approximately 55, this fresh interest is welcome news.

Top Selling Models

Scooters and 125cc remain in high demand, driven by the increase in interest from commuters, however, a broad range of machines including higher priced examples continue to enjoy strong demand.

Used Stock

Supply continues to improve due to increased new sales generating more part exchanges. Larger dealers report having a good selection of stock and are satisfied with their stock levels, although it remains challenging sourcing quality scooters and 125cc machines. To supplement part exchanges, most dealers continue to proactively maintain stock levels to match demand.

Sales Activity

Today, the market continues to be buoyant, with autumn approaching and the furlough scheme drawing to a close, the next few months are looking increasingly uncertain. The weather in the first half of September provided excellent riding conditions, growing the chances of an extended sales season. Taking this into account and after some careful consideration, many values have been eased back for the October guide, except where trade feedback and evidence from the market place suggests further adjustments were necessary. Exceptions to this are mopeds, scooters and commuter machines where values have been held, due to strong demand.

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