Fuel Type: benzin

Used Car Market Update December 2020

Used Car Auction Wholesale Market

Finally over, 2020 will be remembered above all for a certain virus that wreaked havoc around the world and across our global industry. For a whole year, COVID-19 has affected every aspect of our lives and it will have a clear effect on 2021. Lockdowns, mask-wearing and travel restrictions, unimaginable this time last year, have become part of our life and have unsurprisingly impacted the UK’s car markets.

New car registrations were down almost 30% due to reduced demand and severely impacted new car supply. Used car sales were also down, although it was good to see how quickly the used car retail sales switched to safely distanced online sales processes. Due to the various travel and gathering restrictions, auction providers suspended physical sales and now rely entirely on online auction portals. Fortunately, buyers adapted quickly and whilst overall sales volume for 2020 was down from 2019, first-time conversion rates and average sales prices were both up versus 2019 (3.6% and 20.6% respectively).

Overall sale volume 2020 versus 2019 December 2020

Specifically analysing December with Glass’s key metrics of first-time conversion rate and percentage of original cost new: the conversion rate of 72.4% was 5.2% higher than in November but almost 13% lower than the 85.3% achieved in December 2019. The average percentage of the original cost new was up 3.0% and 7.4% against November 2020 and December 2019 respectively. These results reflect the trends seen throughout the year, fewer cars selling with values holding up well. Given the circumstances, this is more positive than the expectations suggested.

First time conversion rate graph December 2020
Percentage original cost new graph December 2020

Despite their increasing popularity in the new car market, demand for HEVs (Hybrid Electric Vehicles) and BEVs (Battery Electric Vehicles) at auction continues to be lower than their ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) equivalents. Additionally, cars that require preparation work or are lack specification are also proving less desirable. This trend became more apparent as 2020 progressed. It appears buyers will still pay good money for the “right” stock, however, as times are more challenging, buyers are less keen to buy cars requiring additional preparation or that are outside of their comfort zones.

The graph below shows first-time conversion rate by fuel type and indicates that buyers are still more comfortable buying petrol and diesel cars rather than alternative fuel types. Petrol and diesel-powered cars achieve virtually the same conversion rates, with hybrids scoring a lower value and BEVs most susceptible to changes in supply and demand.

First time conversion rate graph split by fuel type December 2020

Used Car Retail Market

December is traditionally a three-week month due to the festive break. With the challenges of the November lockdown in England and other restrictions across the UK, the number of used car retail sales was 7.9% lower than December 2019 and increased 9.4% versus November 2020. Interestingly, whilst the average sale price was not too dissimilar to the averages for November 2020 and December 2019 – 1.5% higher and 0.8% lower – the average age of the cars sold, at 49.4 months, was 1.8 months younger than November but a notable 9.4 months older than in December 2019.

Used car retail market observations December 2020
Average sale price graph December 2020

Glass’s Live Retail pricing tool measures the length of time a car spends on the forecourt. This is a useful barometer of the state of the used car retail market – the days to sell are lower when there is good demand and higher when times are tougher.

The average in December was 45.5 days to sell. This was 7.6 days longer than in November, but only 0.8 days longer than in December 2019, so in keeping with the time of the year. To achieve these sales, the average discount required was also higher in December than in the previous month, up from 2.5% to 3.1%, but still favourable when compared to the 3.7% average discount for December 2019.

Average days to sell graph December 2020

Used car sales outlook

With the UK once again in a state of lockdown, the UK’s used car market has got off to a subdued start. The rollout of the vaccination programme and the agreement of a Brexit deal will help promote a degree of positivity and should translate into a recovery of the markets, although this will not be truly apparent until the second quarter of the year.

New car registrations were 29.4% down in 2020 from the total achieved in 2019 and whilst volumes will recover through 2021, registrations are unlikely to achieve “normal” levels this year. There are concerns that the significant reduction of registrations in 2020 will decrease the supply of sub 24-month-old “nearly new” vehicles, particularly diesel-powered cars. This concern is illustrated by the 2020 market share for diesel. The diesel market share decreased from 25.2% in 2019 to 16.0% in 2020 and equated to a 55% drop in volume. Petrol-power also saw large drops – although not to the same scale – which will also lead to a shortage of supply.

Alternative fuel vehicles

New car registrations in 2019 were primarily driven by availability rather than demand. Therefore the apparent swing towards alternative fuel should be viewed with a degree of caution. It is true to say that the market is undoubtedly moving away from pure ICE to alternative fuel vehicles, but 2020 was not a normal year and makes valid conclusions difficult to make. Indeed, 2021 may see supply distorted again, potentially in favour of ICE as manufacturers attempt to catch up on deliveries delayed from last year. However, with the increasing availability of PHEVs, HEVs and BEVs these powertrains will likely continue to take market share from traditional ICE variants over the coming months and years and continue to change the availability of fuel types at auction.

Moving forward, what can be said with a fair degree of certainty is that 2021 is going to be another “fascinating” year for both new and used car sales, with a much higher percentage of online sales than ever before.

Upbeat outlook but not without challenges

1.63 million new cars hit UK roads in 2020 according to figures released by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). With over 680,000 fewer cars registered, 2020 produced the lowest annual registration total since 1992.

The national lockdown between March 23rd and June 1st accounted for a significant proportion of the losses, with the market down over 615,000 units by the end of June. A further lockdown in England in November, together with enhanced restrictions periodically affecting the other three nations of the UK, added to an already challenging new car market. Dealers introduced ‘click and collect’ services part way through Lockdown-1, and enhanced online sales solutions enabled dealers to satisfy pent-up demand. These developments will already be paying dividends as the UK once again finds itself in a national lockdown, expected to last until the beginning of March at the earliest.

The wholesale used car market was somewhat subdued in December, with little evidence of a serious bounce-back following November’s lockdown. That was not surprising as December tends to be one of the weaker used car retail months, with Christmas shopping higher on the public’s priority list. The first-time conversion rate was slightly better than November’s at 72.4%, although that was almost 13 percentage points lower than December 2019.

As we look to the year ahead and consider what is in store for the new and used car markets, COVID-19 remains the biggest challenge. Thankfully, the UK Government achieved an 11th hour Brexit trade deal, averting import tariffs, so that is one less problem for the new car market to contend with.

It is encouraging to see the rapid roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines, however, it is likely to be several months before the UK sees significant coverage, making further restrictions likely. The identification of a new, more easily transmissible variant of COVID-19 is a worrying development and has led to the latest national lockdown. This will undoubtedly affect new car registrations in at least January and February, and the impact will be considerable when compared to last year’s numbers, as the effects of COVID-19 did not impact that period. As we move through March and into the second quarter, which last year was badly affected due to Lockdown-1, registration totals should begin catching back lost ground and by year-end could reach around the 2 million mark.

The used car market should burst back into life once the Government gives a firm indication that the latest lockdown is to end. Until then, Glass’s expects continuing lack-lustre activity. Despite the challenges that lay ahead, the outlook for the used car market remains upbeat, with no crash in used car values expected.

Used Car Market November 2020

Used Car Auction Wholesale Market

With the UK once again in lockdown throughout November – to varying degrees and duration depending on where you live – it was inevitable that the used car market would be affected. Fortunately, businesses and the buying public were better prepared this time around with the impact not as severe as it could have been. However, all three of the key measures – first-time conversion rate, percentage of original cost new, and sales volume index – were lower than in October. At 68.8% the first time conversion rate was 14.1% lower than in October and 16.4% lower than November 2019, whilst sales volume was also significantly reduced. The average percentage of original cost new achieved was less affected, down only 3.6% month-on-month and 1% higher year-on-year. This suggests that whilst fewer cars were selling, they were still achieving similar values.

first time conversion rate graph November 2020
Used car market % original cost new graph November 2020
Used car market sales volume index graph November 2020

Whilst auctions were not quite as busy during Lockdown-2, our Editorial team noted that buyer behaviour was generally the same as the month before. Cars that had condition grades towards the upper end of the scale and requiring work were out of favour, only selling if they represented a real bargain, often struggling to attract any bids at all. Desirable stock remains popular, and feedback suggested that late plate cars performed better than would usually be expected. This is likely to be, at least in part, due to this year’s much lower new car registrations and the extended lead times for new car supply – both factors that make an “almost new” car a more appealing prospect than it may have been in more “normal” times.

Despite the substantial growth in registrations of alternative fuelled cars in the new market, it appears that the used market is yet to catch up. As the chart below shows, the first-time conversion rates for hybrids and BEVs continue to lag behind those of ICE cars, and it is particularly surprising for BEVs due to their relatively low volumes in the auction environment. This may be due to the buyers of used cars tending to be warier of change, preferring to spend their hard-earned money on a car with a more familiar propulsion system, but it could also be due to the types of BEVs that are available on the second-hand market.

Most feature older generation technology, with real-world ranges of less than 120 miles, and whilst in reality that would be suitable for many (assuming they can charge it at home), it requires a leap of faith to move away from a petrol or diesel car that will comfortably travel 500 miles or more on a tank of fuel. It is not helped by the fact that their new contemporaries often have two to three times the range, and so many may well be adopting a “wait and see” approach to the purchase of their first second-hand battery electric vehicle.

first time conversion rate fuel split graph November 2020

Used Car Retail Market

It should come as no surprise that used car retail sales were down markedly in November – 32.7% less than the preceding month and 34.0% lower than November 2019. This is undoubtedly a result of the travel and contact restrictions resulting from the second lockdown, although the average value of those completed sales was 0.1% higher than that recorded for October and 4.7% higher than the same month last year. Impressively, whilst their average value increased, the average age of the cars sold also continued to increase, up to 51.3 months from the 48.6 months recorded for the previous month and 40.5 months for November 2019.

Used car market retail observations November 2020
Used car market average sale price graph November 2020

Glass’s Live Retail pricing tool shows that, despite the challenges faced by the used car retail market in November, the average time a car spent on the retail forecourt was 38 days, only 2.5 days longer than in October but 4.4 days less than the 42.4 recorded for November 2019. The average discount required for the sale continued to be less than for the same month last year, down to 2.5% from 3.4%. This did represent an increase over the 1.8% recorded for October, but given the circumstances, it is still impressive.

Used car market average days to sell graph November 2020

Next Month

December is usually a “challenging” month for the UK used car markets, with Christmas somewhat of a distraction and effectively making it a three-week month. For 2020 we have the added complexities of the Coronavirus-related restrictions so it is reasonable to expect a continuation of the trends seen in November. The looming spectre of Brexit and the possibility of a tariff-driven increase in the cost of new cars may help to promote the sale of younger used cars, but as that is still an unknown at the time of writing it must be added to the list of possible factors. Some buyers may well hold off on a used car purchase until the New Year, but the one thing we have learnt from 2020 is that it is anything but predictable!

Positive outlook for used car sales in 2021

With Brexit trade deal negotiations still unresolved at the time of writing, and COVID-19 an ever-present danger, the outlook for the new car market in 2021 looks gloomy. The prospect of an import tariff on new cars coming from the European Union, could have a severe impact on sales rate. Enhanced Customs processes and other red tape will also hamper stock availability. Stock issues could be exacerbated should European manufacturers lower their UK sales expectations and reduce the production of right-hand-drive cars.

The challenges for the new car market do not end there, with the prospect of further lockdowns a possibility as COVID-19 continues to make its presence felt. There is hope on the horizon now that a vaccine is beginning to be rolled-out, however, it will take several months to administer. Consumer confidence has taken a knock this year and the threat of more redundancies could also negatively impact new car sales.

On a more positive note, regardless of the outcome of free-trade talks and the fight against COVID-19, Glass’s expects registrations in 2021 to be higher than this year, now that dealers have developed ‘click and collect’ and other delivery strategies. During the latest lockdown, in November, registrations fell by 27.4% compared to last year, which whilst severe, was a vast improvement on the 97.3% and 89% drops in April and May during Lockdown-1.

The outlook for the used car market is not gloomy at all. In fact, Glass’s is reasonably optimistic that 2021 will be strong. This year has not been without its challenges but the used car market has proven to be very resilient, helped by the British public’s desire to change their cars, no matter what, so a level of demand remains throughout the toughest of times.

Add to that the prospect of new car price increases coupled to the potential for new car supply constraints and used car demand could rise further, further underpinning residual values. Glass’s expects the used car supply and demand dynamic to be reasonably balanced. There is the prospect that a volume of lease cars that were previously extended will come back into the market next year, which could put extra pressure on remarketing channels, however fresh extensions caused by new car supply issues and economic uncertainty will likely balance that. Consequently, Glass’s expects no crash in used car values in 2021.

UK registrations stall in November as second lockdown takes effect

UK new-car registrations fell by 27.4% year-on-year in November, as a second lockdown came into effect, closing dealerships and hampering sales. New data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reveals that 42,840 fewer cars joined British roads, resulting in a £1.3 billion (€1.4 billion) revenue hit for the market.

In total, the UK saw 113,781 new-car registrations last month, taking trade back to levels not seen since the 2008 recession. Private demand fell by 32.2%, while registrations by large fleets dropped by 22.1%. While this most recent decline demonstrates the continued impact of COVID-19, the drop was less severe than the one in the UK’s first lockdown which began in March, where registrations fell by 97.3% in April alone.

Fuel type divergence

Positive trends did continue for alternative-fuel cars, with battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) increasing their number of registrations, up 122.4% and 76.9% respectively. BEVs enjoyed their third-highest ever monthly market share at 9.1%, with PHEVs also building their share up to 6.8%.

Nearly 37% of the market was held by low-emission fuel types in November, resulting in a year-on-year change of 74.1%. This resulted in a combined total of 18,000 new zero-emission capable cars joining the UK’s roads during the month. Meanwhile, petrol continued to hold on to its market majority at 49.1%, with a year-on-year registrations drop of 41.9%, from 96,166 in November 2019 to 55,855 in the same period this year. Diesel sales fell by 56.2% to 15,925 in November 2020 from 36,329 units in the same period last year, holding on to 14% of the market.

SMMT Graphic


Source: SMMT

Protective measures in place

November’s partial triumph is the result of manufacturers being better prepared to deal with the pandemic, having already put in place protective measures during the first wave of COVID-19 and the resulting lockdowns, such as click and collect ordering systems with little to no human contact.

‘Given the huge contribution that COVID-19-secure showrooms make to the economy and a national recovery, reopening dealerships across most of the UK will help protect jobs in retail and manufacturing and should help stimulate spending,’ the SMMT said.

So far, the automotive sector has been stripped of 663,761 units this year, down 30.7%. This means that some 31,000 cars would need to be registered every working day in December if the market was to climb back to the level expected at the beginning of 2020.


UK new-car registrations, January 2018 to December 2020 (forecast from December 2020)

UK new-car registrations, January 2018 to December 2020 graph

Source: SMMT and Autovista Group

‘Compared with the spring lockdown, manufacturers, dealers and consumers were all better prepared to adjust to constrained trading conditions,’ said Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive. ‘But with £1.3 billion worth of new car revenue lost in November alone, the importance of showroom trading to the UK economy is evident and we must ensure they remain open in any future COVID-19 restrictions. More positively, with a vaccine now approved, the business and consumer confidence on which this sector depends can only improve, giving the industry more optimism for the turn of the year.’

Now with less than a month to go until the UK leaves the EU, talks over a trade deal look to be reaching a pinnacle moment. In the event of no free-trade agreement between the UK and EU tariffs of 10% could be added to imports and exports. Carmakers have already cautioned their inability to absorb this additional cost, meaning they could tag it onto the price of new cars imported into the country, which will only come to hurt the sector further.

New-car registrations deteriorate across Europe in November

Autovista Group senior data journalist Neil King considers the ongoing downward trend in new-car registrations in France, Italy and Spain in November.

Despite government-backed incentives in France, Italy and Spain, new-car registrations suffered significantly again in November, according to data released by the respective automotive trade associations. As countries battle the second wave of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases, restrictions and/or economic repercussions are impacting registration volumes, albeit inflicting far less damage than in March to May.

Following the lifting of lockdowns earlier in the year, the countries’ automotive markets had shown signs of recovery, but, all three suffered a continuation of the downward trend that commenced in September. The 18.7% contraction in Spain was a subtle improvement on the 21.0% year-on-year decline in October, but this was only because of the extra working day in November 2020 compared to November 2019.

New-car registrations, France, Italy and Spain, year-on-year percentage change, January to November 2020

Autovista Group senior data journalist

New-car registrations graph, France, Italy and Spain, y-o-y percentage change, January to November 2020

Source: CCFA, ANFIA, ANFAC

New-car registrations were 27.0% lower in France in November 2020 than in the same month of 2019, even with one extra working day, according to the latest data released by the CCFA, the French automotive industry association. This is the largest year-on-year decline in a month since May, but compared to the dramatic falls in March and April, ‘the re-confinement had decidedly different consequences for the car market,’ commented the CCFA in a flash statement.

‘All the dealers were closed in France in November. They were only allowed to deliver cars that had already been ordered before the second lockdown. They have reopened since 28 November,’ clarified Yoann Taitz, Autovista Group head of valuations and insights, France and Benelux. As dealers could still honour deliveries of orders, this explains why the downturn in France was far less significant in November than during the first lockdown.

In the first 11 months of 2020, new-car registrations in France were 26.9% lower than in the same period in 2019. With dealers open again, December will invariably be a healthier month for the automotive sector, but new-car registrations will still be about 25% lower in 2020 than in 2019.

Less lockdown, more crisis in Spain

In Spain, 75,708 new cars were registered during November, 18.7% fewer than in November 2019, according to ANFAC, the Spanish vehicle manufacturers’ association. ‘The red numbers remain in all segments and vehicle-sales channels in November 2020, and therefore in the cumulative figures. The second wave of the pandemic, and the associated serious economic and social crisis, is deepening the decline in sales in all markets,’ ANFAC commented.

The MOVES II and RENOVE incentive schemes were introduced in July and the new-car market saw a 1.1% increase that month. Since then, however, the year-on-year results have deteriorated, with the November fall only improving slightly on October because of the extra working day in the month.

Ana Azofra, valuations and insights manager at Autovista Group in Spain, explained that ‘the lockdown had many different scenarios, depending on the region and city, but was less restrictive than during the first wave and dealers – at least most of them – remain open. However, the RENOVE incentives for internal combustion engines (ICE) are exhausted and, moreover, the crisis is already affecting private consumption. The unemployment rate already increased in Spain and now stands at 16.5%, maintaining the negative trend.’

Measures to deal with the second wave of COVID-19 infections and the economic repercussions of the crisis are clearly weakening consumer demand. Furthermore, the calculation of the registration tax based on WLTP emissions figures, from January 2021, will further complicate the recovery.

‘Half of the vehicles sold in 2021 will see their taxation increased at the time of purchase due to the entry into operation of the European WLTP regulation. This average price increase of 5% will mean, in such a bad environment for vehicle sales, a worsening of the sector’s situation, making it even more difficult to get out of the crisis. We need the registration tax increase to be corrected before January 1 so that the [automotive] industry and the sector can be the driver of the Spanish economy that they have always been and will be,’ the three associations, ANFAC, Faconauto and Ganvam, declared in the ANFAC release.

Second consecutive monthly decline in Italy

In Italy, the year-on-year downturn in November reported by the industry association ANFIA was 8.3%, although the result would have been worse (down about 12%) had there not been the extra working day. This is the second consecutive month that the country is back in negative territory following the 9.5% growth in new-car registrations in September due to the new government incentives that came into effect at the beginning of August as part of the Decreto Rilancio (Relaunch Decree). While the market still contracted in that month, demand improved but delivery times delayed many registrations until September.

As in Spain, there was not ‘a full lockdown in Italy like the one we experienced in March and car dealers were – and still are – open. However, depending on the zones, there is a ‘light’ lockdown, with different restrictions that put pressure on sales as a result. Furthermore, the incentive scheme for vehicles with the highest range of CO2 emissions has been exhausted,’ commented Marco Pasquetti, forecast and data specialist of Autovista Group in Italy.

‘Without a new intervention to support the car market, the new drop in sales leaves companies with the need to reactivate layoffs, which, in any case, will not be sufficient to stem the loss of turnover today, compared to 2019, at an average value of -25%. The data on the use of the redundancy fund in the period January to October 2020, compared to the same period in 2019, show an increase of 6,000%. These are striking data that induce reflection on the cost of failure to support the car,’ highlighted Adolfo De Stefani Cosentino, president of FEDERAUTO, in the ANFIA release.

The key to the recovery of new-car markets revolves around countries agreeing on budgets for 2021, and improving economic certainty and consumer confidence to boost spending. However, with COVID-19 not yet under control, and further lockdowns possible, the industry faces a difficult end to 2020 and a challenging 2021.

Launch Report: Mazda MX-30

The new Mazda MX-30 has an innovative crossover style that is between a compact SUV and a coupe, with design elements such as rear-hinged doors, sharp-edged wheel arches, rear lights inspired by the MX-5 roadster, and a swooping roofline.

The modern, high-quality interior features a minimalist and well-finished dashboard, and standard equipment is comprehensive, including LED headlamps, satnav, and a head-up display. With a complete list of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), safety is a strength of the MX-30, which has recently been awarded five stars by Euro NCAP.

The MX-30 charges to full battery capacity in good time, but the range of about 200km (WLTP) is relatively low, even compared to other models that are not fully charged. However, the purpose of the MX-30 is to present an eco-friendly vehicle, and the battery was selected as it has a lower impact on the environment in terms of CO2 emissions during production, as well as energy consumption. There are currently no versions with extended battery capacity, but space in the engine compartment supports rumours of a range-extender variant with an additional rotary-style engine.

List prices are typically slightly lower than for C-SUV rivals but higher than for electric hatchback models. In Germany, the €9,000 incentive for battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) gives an adjusted retail price from about €23,000, which is even on a par with the petrol-powered Mazda CX-30 C-SUV.

Click here or on the image below to read Autovista Group’s benchmarking of the Mazda MX-30 in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK.

We present new prices, forecast residual values and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis.

Mazda MX-30 Launch Report

Used-car transactions grow in France and Germany in October

Autovista Group senior data journalist Neil King considers the latest used-car market volumes published by the respective associations in the major European markets.

The volume of used-car transactions grew year-on-year in October 2020 in France and Germany. Used-car sales increased by 11.4% and 2.6% year-on-year respectively in France and Germany in the month, and Spain and Italy only suffered modest respective declines of 1.6% and 5.7%. Through to October, the used-car markets of France and Germany had single-digit declines, of 4.1% and 3.5% respectively, whereas there were double-digit contractions in the used-car markets of Italy and Spain.

Used-car transactions, year-on-year % change, October and year-to-date

Used-car transactions, y-o-y % change graph, October and ytd 2020

Sources: Sources: CCFA, KBA, ANFIA, GANVAM/IEA

In the UK, used-car sales data are not yet available for October, but the country’s used-car market contracted by 17.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2020. The volume of used-car transactions declined in all the four tracked major continental European markets too, but the downturns were significantly less dramatic than the contractions in new-car registrations.

Used-car transactions and new-car registrations, year-on-year % change, Q1-Q3

Used-car transactions and new-car registrations, y-o-y % change, Q1-Q3 October 2020

Sources: CCFA, KBA, ANFIA, ANFAC, GANVAM/IEA, SMMT

The used-car market in the UK contracted by 17.5% in the first three quarters of 2020, according to the latest figures released by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) on 10 November. However, this is only about half the downturn in new-car registrations in the country in the same period.

Following a comparatively modest decline of 8.3% in the first quarter of 2020, as the coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown from mid-March negated growth in January and February, there was a 48.9% slump in the second quarter as dealer forecourts remained closed for most of this period.

UK busiest quarter since 2016

The used-car market rebounded to increase by 4.4% in Q3 as dealers reopened and lockdown measures were relaxed. ‘During the busiest quarter since the end of 2016, some 2,168,599 transactions took place between July and September, 92,217 more than the same period in 2019, with September recording the largest growth, up 6.3%,’ the SMMT reports.

However, as England has returned to a state of lockdown and the rest of the UK wrestles with stark rises in COVID-19 cases, the final quarter of 2020 will be challenging.

‘It is encouraging to see used-car sales returned to growth but, as the pandemic continues and outlets in many areas are being made to close again, the short-term outlook is less positive. Given these premises are often proven to be COVID-secure, we need them to reopen quickly to protect vital jobs and ensure no further delay to the fleet renewal necessary to deliver environmental improvements,’ commented Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive.

Continental contractions

There have been similar contractions of the used-car markets in Spain and Italy. The latter has suffered the most, with 17.3% fewer changes of ownership in the first 10 months of 2020 than a year earlier, according to the latest data published by ANFIA. Nevertheless, this compares to a 30.9% contraction of the new-car market and is a significant improvement on the 31.6% decline in used-car transactions in the first half of 2020. Many buyers of both new and used cars decided to hold off until government incentives came into effect at the beginning of August as part of the Decreto Rilancio (Relaunch Decree). This new scheme came on top of the Ecobonus scheme, which incentivises cars producing less than 20g of CO2/km.

Used-car sales fell 14.2% year-on-year in Spain in the first 10 months of 2020, according to the Spanish car dealers’ association GANVAM. This compares to a 36.8% decline in new-car registrations. As in Italy, the used-car market has recovered well, given that there were 31.7% fewer used-car transactions in the first half of 2020 than a year earlier.

However, the market turned negative in October after five months of growth. ‘This change in trend is marked, to a large extent, by the impact that the coronavirus crisis is having on operations with used cars from rental fleets, known as buybacks (since after about six months the brand has an agreement to buy back that fleet to sell it on the second-hand market). As a consequence of the fall in tourism, the car-rental companies are not renewing their fleets. In fact, registrations in this channel accumulated a drop of 60% until October and, therefore, there is a large vacuum in the supply of pre-owned used vehicles, which translates into a 34% drop in sales of second-hand models aged less than a year,’ GANVAM reports.

In France, industry association CCFA reports a modest 4.1% decline in used-car sales in the first 10 months of 2020. As elsewhere, this is a significantly better performance than the 26.9% fall in new-car registrations.

However, Germany’s used-car market has weathered the COVID-19 storm better than all the other major European countries. There were only 3.5% fewer changes of ownership in the first 10 months of 2020 compared to the same period last year, according to the industry association KBA. New-car registrations have also suffered less than in the other major markets, but were still down 23.4% in the year-to-date, therefore being outperformed by used-car demand here too.

Residual-value recovery

As Europe’s used-car markets have proven more resilient than new-car markets throughout 2020, the impact on residual values (RVs) has been predominantly positive. Autovista Group’s COVID-19 tracker, which tracks 12 European markets, shows that the index of RVs, compared to early February, has returned to pre-crisis levels in all countries except Portugal and Finland. The measurements began in February, with an index value of 100.

Residual-value index of used cars, 2 February to 15 November

RV index of used cars, 2 February to 15 November 2020

Source: Autovista Group, Residual Value Intelligence, COVID-19 tracker

However, as Europe battles a second wave of COVID-19, new lockdowns, growing stock volumes, incentives for new cars, and rising unemployment, Autovista Group expects a downward trend for the end of the year, especially for younger cars.

Further details on the Autovista Group outlook for residual values are published in the November update of the Autovista Group whitepaper; How will COVID-19 shape used-car markets?

Used Car Market Update November 2020

Used Car Auction Wholesale Market

The UK used car auction market cooled a little in October. The performance was still good, but the three key measures of First Time Conversion, Percentage of Original Cost New, and Sales Volume were all slightly lower than in September. Sales volume was once again higher than the same month last year, while the percentage of cost new also exceeded that achieved in October 2019, up 4% even though the average age of the cars sold was only 2 months lower (84.2 months in October 2020 versus 86.2 months in 2019). The first time conversion rate was down from September’s 85.0% to 80.1%, although that is still a respectable result given the ongoing challenges.

Used car market first time conversion rate graph November 2020
used car market original cost new graph November 2020
Used car market sales volume index graph November 2020

Glass’s Editorial team observed that buyers became more selective during September and this trend continued into October. In that respect the October market appeared to be back to “business as usual”, with desirable cars – good condition and specification – selling relatively quickly and achieving stronger values, with cars of lower grading and specification struggling to make credible values, or in some cases even attract bids.

With this in mind, vendors must present cars at the highest standard. This means documents, keys and, where appropriate, charging cables must be present at the sale. The latter is very important even with the current relatively low volume of plug-in cars, as the significant cost of replacement cables means their absence directly impacts values achieved at auction.

Today, with purely online sales, vendor “presence” is incredibly important to maintain buyer participation in auctions. It is easy for buyers to follow more than one auction simultaneously, regardless of location. Therefore, to maintain sale momentum, a vendor who makes quick decisions on bidding and provisional sales creates a more animated sale with more enthusiastic bidding. This is because buyers know immediately what they have bought and as a result what they still need to look for.

The Glass’s Editorial team continue to monitor auctions remotely. The majority of UK auctions are currently held online and the data shows that buyers have transitioned to this new way of working quickly.

Used Car Retail Market

October’s used car retail market reflected the auction market and continued to follow the trends seen in September. The number of used retail sales declined 6% compared with September and saw a 16.2% decline versus October 2019. However, the average sale price continued to rise, up 1.5% over the previous month and 7.5% versus October 2019. These increases in the average sale price are particularly notable given the average age of retail used cars sold in October was 48.6 months, compared with 47.5 months in September and 39.4 months in October last year.

Used car market retail observations graph November 2020
Used car market average sale price graph November 2020

Glass’s Live Retail pricing tool measures the length of time a car spends on the retail forecourt. The average 35.4 days for October saw cars selling 2.3 days faster than the September average of 37.7 days and 3.5 days faster than October 2019. The is the fastest average sale time of the past two years. Additionally, the average discount required to achieve the sales in October was 1.8%, also much lower than the 3.0% recorded for October 2019. This increases the picture of a relatively healthy used car retail market in October 2020.

Used car market average days to sell graph November 2020

Next Month

October proved to be a relatively good month for both the wholesale and retail used car markets. The Welsh lockdown for the latter half of the month did not appear to have a notable adverse effect on the national market figures – September’s trends continued into October and the overall results were good.

However, with England in lockdown for much of November, it is reasonable to expect a reduction in performance for the key metrics. The English Lockdown-2 is not as restrictive as the one earlier in the year, and many car sales outlets are prepared for it this time around with ‘Click and Collect’ available in many locations. Overall, the effect on November’s sales will not be as pronounced as the fall in sales during Lockdown-1. However, auction values and sales volumes will be impacted, with early reports from the markets supporting this theory.

EU new-car registrations declined 7.8% in October

Autovista Group senior data journalist Neil King explores the latest figures released by the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) as second-wave lockdowns bring more downturns.

New-car registrations in the EU declined 7.8% year-on-year in October.  Volumes fell from 1,034,669 units to 953,615. This marks a return to the market contractions suffered every month in 2020, except for the modest growth in September. The decline is an improvement on the dramatic double-digit declines suffered in March to June, and again in August, but does not bode well as the region contends with a second wave of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and lockdowns.

EU new-car registrations, year-on-year % change, January to October 2020 and year-to-date (YTD)

EU new car regs

Source: ACEA

All EU new-car markets contracted last month – apart from Ireland and Romania, which enjoyed year-on-year growth of 5.4% and 17.6% respectively. This renewed EU-wide downturn was to be expected given the year-on-year declines already reported in France, Italy, Spain, and even Germany in October.

Single-digit declines were reported in France, Germany and Italy, although the decline in Italy was just 0.2% and the result would have been positive (up by about 4%) had there not been one less working day. This follows the 9.5% growth in new-car registrations in September, due to the new government incentives that came into effect at the beginning of August as part of the Decreto Rilancio (Relaunch Decree). While the market still contracted in that month, demand improved but delivery times delayed many registrations until September and October.

On a less positive note, there was a double-digit decline of new-car registrations in Spain in October. The MOVES II and RENOVE schemes were introduced in July, and the new-car market saw a 1.1% increase in the month. Since then, however, there have been respective monthly declines of 10.1% and 13.5% in August and September, and now 21.0% in October. It is therefore clear that weak underlying consumer demand is the problem in the country. Measures to deal with the second wave of COVID-19 infections, and the calculation of the registration tax based on WLTP emissions figures from January 2021, are further complicating the recovery.

New-car registrations, year-on-year % change, October 2020 and year-to-date (YTD) 2020

New-car registrations, year-on-year % change, October 2020 and year-to-date graph

Source: ACEA

In the smaller EU member states, year-on-year contractions of more than 20% were reported in seven markets, including Finland, Slovakia and Slovenia. However, some markets were far more resilient, with downturns of less than 5% reported in Austria and Hungary.

Lockdown negativity replaces pent-up positivity

In the first 10 months of 2020, registrations of new cars in the EU fell by 26.8%. Even the market downturn in October continued the improvement in the year-to-date contractions, which bottomed out at 41.5% in the first five months of the year. The greatest loss among the major EU markets was in Spain, which has contracted by 36.8% in the year-to-date, ahead of only Croatia (down 43.5%) and Portugal (down 37.1%).

As the positive contribution of pent-up demand is ultimately exhausted, the second wave of COVID-19 infections, the severity, duration and geographic spread of lockdowns, and the economic fallout of COVID-19, will define how new-car markets perform in the remainder of 2020 and beyond. The key to recovery revolves around countries agreeing budgets for 2021, and improving economic certainty and consumer confidence to boost spending. The allocation of aid resources provided by the European Recovery Fund, agreed on 21 July, will also play a pivotal role in shaping the forward outlook for Europe’s new-car markets.

Manufacturer performance

Among the leading European carmakers, the BWW Group, Ford, Mazda, Mitsubishi and Nissan all registered more than 10% fewer new cars in the EU in October 2020 than in October 2019. Mazda suffered the greatest loss, with EU registrations down 38.0% year-on-year.

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) and the Renault Group, however, managed to register 3.9% and 0.2% more cars respectively in the EU than in October 2019. All other major manufacturers suffered single-digit declines of between 6.2% (Honda) and 9.7% (Jaguar Land Rover) in the month.

Across Europe, manufacturers with a strong electric-vehicle portfolio are expected to perform better than those without as electrically-chargeable vehicle (EV) consumers are less likely to be tempted by used cars instead of new. This is because they tend to be less price-sensitive buyers, but there is also limited availability of the latest electric models on the used-car market. In the year-to-date, Toyota is the best-performing manufacturer in the EU, albeit with registrations down 16.9%, supporting this hypothesis.

In a new video, Autovista Group Daily Brief editor Phil Curry talks through the latest registration figures in the big four EU markets and the UK.

November – Latest whitepaper update: How will COVID-19 shape used-car markets?

The latest edition of Autovista Group’s whitepaper: How will COVID-19 shape used-car markets? considers the second wave of coronavirus (COVID-19) infections across Europe. Out of the 18 markets covered, 10 have adopted a more negative view of overall economic scenario outcomes.

The latest update to the Autovista Group whitepaper covers such topics as:

  • Three-speed RVs: Europe’s used-car prices recover to pre-crisis levels
  • A golden age for used-car markets?
  • The double-edged sword of EV government incentives?
  • Coronavirus scenarios – how swiftly will economies recover?

Residual-value (RV) outlooks have changed. 10 of the countries tracked have now changed to a more favourable position for RVs in 2020 as the landscape for the year becomes clearer. Eight countries have also confirmed their RV outlooks for 2021 and 2022.

However, RVs are also under threat from government-backed incentive schemes, designed to help the automotive industry following extensive lockdowns earlier this year. Such grants favour the purchase of new vehicles, and Autovista Group has analysed the impact on the used-car market in different regions, focusing on internal combustion engine (ICE) and electric-vehicle (EV) models. The latter looks to be under more pressure, especially in two markets.

The whitepaper shows that a ‘two-speed’ market recovery continues in Europe. This year has seen most used-car markets fare particularly well, even above pre-COVID levels. However, this is largely driven by a run for cheaper, older vehicles, as many come to rely less on public transport through fear of contracting COVID-19. Young used cars, including those coming off-lease or released by rental firms, do not see such a level of recovery and are under pressure in a number of markets.

Yet some markets, such as in Southern Europe, will not be at pre-crisis levels by the end of 2022. There are already signs of the need for some downward market correction before the end of this year.

You can find more information about how different markets are shaping up, and the various economic scenarios across the region, in the latest update of the Autovista Group whitepaper – ‘How will COVID-19 shape used car markets’ – which can be viewed here.

Car Market Overview November 2020

To adhere to the latest government imposed COVID-19 lockdown, on November 5 car dealers in England temporarily closed their physical sales operations for the second time in a year. Lockdown-2 follows similarly enhanced social restrictions seen in other parts of the UK. Despite this economic setback, many dealers continue to offer cars for sale through ‘click and collect’. However, even with these strategies in place, Glass’s still expects a significant impact on UK dealer’s profits.

To support businesses throughout this period the Government has extended the Furlough scheme, which will be welcome news. However, this extension does not only cover the four-week lockdown, it will last until the end of March 2021. This has raised anxiety amongst business leaders that extended restrictions may affect businesses via full lockdowns or changes to the local tiered alert system.

The tier system was in place in October, affecting different regions in England in a variety of ways, although not affecting car dealers and other ‘non-essential’ retail outlets. In other parts of the UK, restrictions required dealers to close. This impacted new car sales during this period. According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), the new car market fell by 1.6% in October, to just under 141,000 registrations, marking a nine-year low. The year to date registration total now sits almost 621,000 below last year, a drop of 31%.

The wholesale auction market continued with strength in the early days of October, but conversion rates began falling as the month went on. It seems that many dealers felt they had the correct level of stock and began ‘cherry-picking’ as a result. As is common when dealers become more selective, vehicle condition becomes more important, with cars with higher auction condition grades falling out of favour, either receiving no bids or disproportionately low offers. Glass’s understands that sold volume increased slightly in October compared to last year but first-time conversion rates fell by five percentage points, to 80%.

Although there is a high level of uncertainty in the current new and used car markets, dealers should take some comfort from how trading bounced back following the end of Lockdown-1. However, with the latest lockdown due to end in December, which is typically a slower retail month due to the pressures of Christmas, Glass’s does not expect retail activity to be as strong. That said, we expect wholesale trading to remain reasonably positive, as dealers build stock for the important post-Christmas and early new year period.

Explaining October’s registration figures

In October, none of the big five European markets achieved a positive increase in registrations. With markets entering various states of lockdown to ease a second wave of coronavirus (COVID-19) infections in November, the picture for the rest of 2020 could become murkier still. Autovista Group Daily Brief editor Phil Curry guides you through the figures in the latest registrations round up.

To get notifications for all the latest videos, you can subscribe for free to the Autovista Group Daily Brief YouTube channel. There you will find videos on a range of subjects including autonomous vehicles, new-car registrations, safety systems, and electrification.

Volvo recalls 120,000 cars globally after airbag defect

Volvo Cars is undertaking a global recall of its S60 and S80 models built between 2001 and 2003 due to an airbag defect, Autovista Group has learned.

‘The recall is global and in total around 120,000 cars will be recalled from markets with hot and humid conditions,’ the carmaker confirmed to Autovista Group’s Daily Brief. ‘All affected owners will be contacted directly by Volvo.’

The move looks to tackle an airbag defect which has already been linked to one fatality in the US. Documents published by the country’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), describe the potential for the driver side airbag inflator to rupture, causing fragments to be expelled on deployment.

This process has already begun, with the manufacturer reaching out to owners of the S60 and S80 models. According to NHTSA documents, Volvo plans to replace the faulty unit with modern propellant and inflator.

‘After being notified by Volvo in August 2019 of a field incident where it appeared that a specific type of airbag inflator ruptured upon deployment, ZF promptly informed the NHTSA and, together with Volvo, began investigating the incident,’ the airbag provider told the Daily Brief. ‘As a company committed to safety, ZF will continue to work closely with NHTSA and Volvo on this issue.’

Hot and humid conditions

The report lays out that when the faulty airbag’s propellant tablets are subjected to increased moisture levels and frequent high-inflator temperatures, the tablets can start to decay and form dust particles. Also, when exposed to increased temperatures, moisture leaves the tablet and when cooled down is absorbed and accumulated on its surface.

This localisation of moisture leads to ‘volumetric changes of the tablet’s surface,’ creating dust. This dust increases burn surface area and burn rate. This can result in higher combustion chamber pressure and the risk of inflator rupture.

‘In the event of a crash were the driver airbag is activated, fragments of the inflator inside the airbag may, in certain cases, project out and in worst case strike you, potentially resulting in serious injury or death,’ the US recall notice states.

The carmaker and the NHTSA have had meetings about the airbag fault since August 2019.

The agency confirmed that one person in the US died when a ZF/TRW FG2 twin driver airbag inflator containing the propellant 5AT-148N exploded. The government body said this was the only known fatality for this type of inflator globally.

Takata troubles

The development is reminiscent of the ongoing global recall due to an airbag issue by Takata. According to the NHTSA, it affected tens of millions of vehicles, from 19 different automakers. These airbags were recalled because they could explode when deployed, causing serious injury or even death.

Podcast: Tracking automotive markets, recalls and emissions

In its latest podcast, the Autovista Group Daily Brief team discusses the new Monthly Market Dashboard, plug-in hybrid (PHEV) recalls and manufacturer emissions targets…Autovista Group · Tracking automotive markets, recalls and emissions

https://soundcloud.com/autovistagroup/mmd-recalls-and-emissions

You can also listen and subscribe to receive further episodes direct to your mobile device on Apple, Spotify, Google Podcasts and search for Autovista Group Podcast on Amazon Music.

Click here to access our Brexit survey, and tell us how the negotiation uncertainty and the UK leaving the EU is impacting your business and industry.

Modern classics soaring in desirability

Classic car ownership has never been so popular. Many collectors aspire to own popular models like Jaguar’s enigmatic E-Type Lightweight or Ford’s Capri. Whilst gaining ownership of the Capri might at least be possible for some, with price tags starting around £1,000,000, the very special E-Type is out of reach for those on a budget. Even standard E-Type’s have asking prices starting around £50,000, with some currently advertised at more than double that level. Due to COVID-19, there is the potential that an increased volume of classic cars will rotate back into the marketplace, as the economy bites and unemployment rises.

As we look ahead and consider the classic cars of the future, it is worth considering some of the elements that make them appealing in the first place. It helps if they are a good-looking car, and a sporting pedigree often enhances appeal and value. However, possibly more important is that people have an emotional connection with the model. Today, it is increasingly apparent that a special reminder of one’s youth is highly prized.

Finally, the scarcity of a model has a major effect on desirability and value. Strangely, it also helps that many of the cars considered classics today, were not built to a high standard. Due to this, many were destined for early graves at the scrapyard.

In the year 2000, there were 24.4 million cars on UK roads. In 2019, there were nearly 32 million. Interestingly, the proportion of older cars has increased, with just over 2.3 million cars over 13 years of age in 2000, increasing to over 6 million in 2019. Saving old cars of interest has become big business, fuelled by an ever-increasing nostalgia for modern classics. Ford Escorts and Fiestas, Volkswagen Golfs, and Peugeot 205 GTis from the eighties and nineties are highly desirable today.

Glass’s Leisure Vehicles Editor Paul McDonald said, “Following a significant boost in registrations over the last few months, a slow-down in September was not unexpected, as recent growth was partly a result of pent-up demand following lockdown. So, to see the increases continue is great news”.

With the major auction groups continuing to hold only online sales, some buyers continue to be wary about spending substantial amounts of money on vehicles they have seen in person. However, this trust continues to improve as buyers become more accepting of the descriptions provided by the auction houses.

Additional factors affecting the popularity of older cars

By the mid-nineties, car build quality and reliability had improved dramatically whilst the driveability of cars had also taken a step forward. New cars of today continue these improvements, but many people are choosing to look for older, more characterful cars to drive every day. This is not only down to the price, fueling the demand many enthusiasts strive to drive something unique and with historical interest.

There is no definitive age that identifies a classic car. Many hold the view that a modern classic will be at least 15 years of age, and a classic must be at least 25 years old. However, if you use car tax exemption as a guide, then the car needs to be at least 40 years old.   

Many people find driving a modern classic car is without status, which is a very desirable commodity in today’s world. Especially if a modern classic is relatively easy to afford. So, looking ahead, there are models that could already be considered modern classics. It is also worth remembering that with improved build quality more survivors of each vehicle could also affect the future asking prices.

The following examples are all over 15 years of age and remarkably can be bought today for under £1,000. As beauty is in the eye of the beholder, the decision on whether they are a modern classic is yours.

  • 2003       Jaguar S-Type V6 SE Plus                               £999
  • 2003       Mercedes-Benz SLK200 Kompressor              £995
  • 2001       Audi TT 1.8T Quattro 2dr                                 £999
  • 2000       Land Rover Discovery GS                               £995
  • 2004       MG TF 1.8                                                       £990

Motorcycle Market Update October 2020

Following a significant year on year registration increase in July and August (up 42% and 32% respectively), data published by the Motorcycle Industry Association (MCIA) shows that registrations grew by a more modest but still impressive 11.7% in September. Six out of the nine sales categories recorded growth with mopeds enjoying the strongest increase, followed by scooters.

Glass’s Leisure Vehicles Editor Paul McDonald said, “Following a significant boost in registrations over the last few months, a slow-down in September was not unexpected, as recent growth was partly a result of pent-up demand following lockdown. So, to see the increases continue is great news”.

With the major auction groups continuing to hold only online sales, some buyers continue to be wary about spending substantial amounts of money on vehicles they have seen in person. However, this trust continues to improve as buyers become more accepting of the descriptions provided by the auction houses.

Engine band highest registered models – September 2020

Power Band Model

0-50cc Lexmoto ECHO PLUS 50
51-125cc Honda CB 125F
126-650cc Royal Enfield INTERCEPTOR INT 650
651-1000cc Yamaha TENERE 700
Over 1000cc BMW R1250 GS ADVENTURE

Data courtesy of the MCIA

The used car retail market is showing similar recovery behaviour to the wholesale market. The key measures – Average Sale Price and Days-to-Sell are both positive. Just like the auction market, their rate of recovery is slowing, suggesting they are approaching their natural level.

Glass’s Live Retail pricing tool reports on the average time a car spends on the forecourt, with lower days to sell indicating higher retail demand. The average for July of 59.1 days is still 30% higher than expected, but in the circumstances is a distinct improvement over June’s average of 81.9 days. If the decreases continue over the coming weeks the value for August will be similar to August 2019.

New motorcycle market

Sales and demand remained buoyant throughout September, although some dealers reported a slow-down towards the end of the month. Concerns remain regarding the economy, especially how additional COVID-19 restrictions will affect the industry moving into 2021. Despite this, given the average riding age of 56, there is optimism that a significant proportion of motorcycle consumers are financially stable enough to support sales momentum moving forward.

What can the industry expect moving forward?

The industry has already demonstrated its resilience with sales and demand exceeding expectations. However, COVID-19 continues to be a major issue. Given this, the outlook for the final quarter of 2020 remains uncertain.  The Glass’s editorial team will continue to monitor all of the market dynamics during the next few months.

Used motorcycle market

With autumn now fully with us, dealers are experiencing a slow-down in enquiries. However, the used market remains remarkably resilient, potentially even more so than new.  With consumers having more time on their hands, saving money not taking holidays and unable to participate in certain hobbies, some dealers hold the view that increased numbers have taken up riding as an alternative, contributing towards recent sales growth.

Top-selling models

For dealers with major cities in their catchment areas, scooters and 125cc machines remain in strong demand, a result of commuters choosing to ride to work as an alternative to public transport. However, demand continues to be largely buoyant across the board, with the adventure and naked segments being particularly strong.  

Stock

Glass’s has received mixed feedback regarding stock availability from dealers. Although there have been improvements, some dealers continue to find locating quality used motorcycle stock a challenge, particularly 125cc machines. Compounding this issue, some riders are choosing to privately sell their old machines rather than part-exchange. However, despite these issues, many larger dealers are currently satisfied with their stock levels.

Sales activity

Sales remained positive into October with no dealers reporting a significant decline. However, with October’s weather becoming more autumnal and the heightened economic uncertainty, many values have been eased back for the November guide, except where trade feedback and evidence from the market place has suggested further adjustment is necessary. Exceptions to this are mopeds, scooters and commuter machines where values have been held.

Used Car Market Update October 2020

Auction Wholesale Market

A degree of stability seems to be returning to the UK used car auction market. Whilst the key measures of First Time Conversion Rate, Percentage of Original Cost New, and Sales Volume Index all dipped slightly in August, they all recovered in September and continue to exceed the figures achieved in the same month last year. Of course, with all the ongoing uncertainty in the world, it is too early to state that we are back to normal, but it is encouraging to see that despite all the challenges the auction market is still performing well.

First time conversion rate graph October 2020
Percentage original cost new graph October 2020

The rapid post-lockdown recovery was, at least in part, driven by a need to re-stock sites and feed pent up retail demand. Virtually every car offered received multiple bids and anything desirable was selling for very strong money. This slowed, and feedback from the market suggests that buyers are becoming a little more selective in what they buy. Desirable retail stock is still selling well at auction, moving quickly and for good money, but the less desirable stock is starting to become harder work. Cars with damage or less appealing specification can struggle to even get a bid, and those that do sell are not achieving the sort of money they would have two to three months ago.

In terms of what is popular, SUVs continue to sell well. Convertible hammer prices are weakening, no doubt due to the change in season, although they are still selling. Despite all the media hype and their apparent popularity in the new market, alternatively fuelled cars continue to challenge vendors in auction channels. This could be because the latest generation vehicles have much longer ranges and quicker charging times than those typically found in the used market, making them appear less desirable and thus perhaps worth less than the vendors may be hoping… Also, the restrictions around leisure activities have meant reduced demand for taxis and minicabs, which have become biased more towards low emission cars in recent years.

Used Retail Market

The used Retail market is also showing signs of stabilising, with the number of sales observations and the average sale price for September being very similar to those in August. The number of observations is still lower than for the same month last year, down just over 10%, but the average sale price is 5.8% higher, even though the average age of the cars sold was 47.5 months, almost 20% higher than the 39.8 months reported for September 2019.

Used car market retail observations graph October 2020
Used car market average sale price October 2020

Glass’s live retail pricing tool GlassNet Radar also shows that the average time a car spends on the forecourt continues to decrease. At 37.7 days it is 8.1% lower than the 41.0 days reported for the same month last year, and a notable 17% improvement over August’s 45.5 days. This is a good indication that there continues to be a healthy retail demand for used cars.

Used car market average days to sell October 2020

Outlook

Taken at face value, the metrics for both the wholesale and retail markets suggest that October will be another promising month. However, we continue to live in uncertain times and the recent lockdown announcements may likely slow down the recovery, especially in those regions that are seeing more stringent conditions. More transactions are now carried out remotely though, not just for the wholesale market but also for retail, and this may lessen that impact. We are also heading into the final few months of the year which traditionally means a slowing down of the market, especially if we have “proper” winter weather. So, as we head into the final quarter of what has been an extraordinary year the only thing we can be certain of is that the used car markets – both wholesale and retail – are as unpredictable as they have been for most of this year. Of course, Glass’s Editorial team will continue to monitor activity and share what they find.

Motorcycle Market Round Up October 2020

Market Overview

Autumn is now fully with us and although several dealers have experienced a slow-down in recent weeks, typical for the time of year, the market remains remarkably resilient.  However, Covid-19 continues to be a major issue with further restrictions implemented across parts of the country. Given this, the outlook for the final quarter of 2020 remains uncertain, with the full impact of furlough schemes ending and redundancies yet to be felt. So, whilst recent feedback has been largely positive with the market exceeding expectations for many, caution is still advised.

Top Selling Models

Scooters and 125cc machines remain in strong demand, particularly for dealers in and around major cities where an uptick in sales has been partly a result of commuters choosing to ride to work as an alternative to public transport. However, demand continues to be largely buoyant across the board, with adventure and naked segments particularly strong. With the public having more time on their hands this year, saving money not taking holidays and unable to participate in certain hobbies, some dealers hold the view that increased numbers have taken up riding as an alternative, contributing towards sales growth in recent months.  

Stock

Feedback for stock availability was mixed, and although there have been improvements with an increase in offers from the public, some dealers continue to find locating quality used stock a challenge, particularly 125cc machines. Compounding this issue, some riders are choosing to privately sell their old machines rather than part-exchange. However, despite these issues, many larger dealers are currently satisfied with their stock levels.

Sales Activity

Sales remained positive into October with no dealers reporting a significant decline. However, the weather during the first half of the month was rather wet and on the chilly side. Taking this into account with heightened economic uncertainty and after some careful consideration, many values have been eased back for the November guide, except where trade feedback and evidence from the market place has suggested further adjustment where necessary. Exceptions to this are mopeds, scooters and commuter machines where values have been held.

Motorcycle Market Update September 2020

Significant year on year increases in motorcycle registrations in July and August are boosting the motorcycle market following the national lockdown. Data published by the Motorcycle Industry Association (MCIA) shows that registrations grew 32% compared to August 2019, with all categories recording an increase. Once again it is the scooter category recording the strongest growth.

Glass’s Leisure Vehicles Editor Paul McDonald said, “After a huge boost in July registrations, further growth was hoped for in August, albeit not quite to the same level.  However, a 32% increase was incredible news. The question today is will this resurgence last in the face of recession and an uncertain UK job market?”

Engine band highest registered models – August 2020

Power Band Model

0-50cc Lexmoto ECHO PLUS 50
51-125cc Honda CB 125F
126-650cc Royal Enfield INTERCEPTOR INT 650
651-1000cc Yamaha TENERE 700
Over 1000cc BMW R1250 GS ADVENTURE

Data courtesy of the MCIA

New market

Sales and demand remained strong throughout August. The main focus continues to be the 125cc and commuter markets, although middle weights and larger machines also did well. However, the main issue is a shortage of new machines, with uncertain factory lead times, and some dealers quoting dates early next year for deliveries of certain models.

What can the industry expect moving forward?

Forecast demand is likely to create challenges for dealers into next year. The Glass’s editorial team will follow the market with interest over the final quarter, as summer turns to autumn and the furlough scheme closes with the inevitability of redundancies. Glass’s view is that while there is a reasonable chance commuter and 125cc sales will remain buoyant for the rest of the year, demand for the higher end of the market could decline more rapidly than typically expected during autumn.

Used Market

Since motorcycle dealers reopened following lockdown, the used market has remained busy with strong sales and enquiries throughout August. However, dealers are starting to experience quieter periods, typical in a ‘normal’ year, with August and September holidays. As increasing numbers of employees return to work they continue to seek alternatives to public transport raising expectations that for the remainder of the year, the commuter market will remain buoyant in the used market too. CBT training centres remain busy, good news for the industry’s future, with the potential of at least some new riders progressing to full licences. With the average rider age now approximately 55, this fresh interest is welcome news.  

Top Selling Models

Scooters and 125cc remain in high demand, driven by the increase in interest from commuters, however, a broad range of machines including higher priced examples continue to enjoy strong demand.

Used Stock

Supply continues to improve due to increased new sales generating more part exchanges. Larger dealers report having a good selection of stock and are satisfied with their stock levels, although it remains challenging sourcing quality scooters and 125cc machines. To supplement part exchanges, most dealers continue to proactively maintain stock levels to match demand.

Sales Activity

Today, the market continues to be buoyant, with autumn approaching and the furlough scheme drawing to a close, the next few months are looking increasingly uncertain. The weather in the first half of September provided excellent riding conditions, growing the chances of an extended sales season. Taking this into account and after some careful consideration, many values have been eased back for the October guide, except where trade feedback and evidence from the market place suggests further adjustments were necessary.  Exceptions to this are mopeds, scooters and commuter machines where values have been held, due to strong demand.