Article Type: Insight

October’s Used Van Hero

For those wanting reliability and economy

The Renault Trafic Business+ SL29dCi Energy 120PS van has been named as Glass’s Used Van Hero for October.

Each month, Glass’s Commercial Vehicle editors hold a meeting to name the current Used Van Hero in the UK market – the model they believe offers versatility, economy and outstanding value for money.

Andy Picton, Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor: “Strong economical engines, three trim levels and a good size payload area are attractive qualities that keep the Trafic on most buyers shortlist”.

Andy added, “In an age of ‘duty of care’ and ‘health and safety’, more businesses are purchasing higher trim models. The enhanced working environment is a boon for the driver, whilst higher residual values create greater demand in the wholesale market”.

WHY?

In the UK, the Trafic launched in 1981 and has always had a good following. Built in France, this month’s used van hero was available from Renault dealers between 2014 and 2019. Available at launch with a 1.6-litre Euro 5 diesel engine with four power outputs generating 90bhp, 115bhp, 120bhp or 140bhp. Two body lengths, two roof heights and three standard trim levels in van, crew van and 9-seat minibus body styles. A platform cab is also available for aftermarket conversions, giving an all-round and comprehensive offering. Engine upgrades to meet Euro 6 emissions launched late in 2016 with small changes to power output.

WHEN WAS IT ON SALE?

Now in its fourth incarnation the first generation Trafic launched in 1981 as a replacement to the Renault Estafette. The second-generation X83 model launched in 2001 and was a joint venture with sister products the Vauxhall Vivaro and Nissan Primastar. The third generation X82 model launched in 2014 and added the Fiat Talento to the partnership with Vauxhall moving away in November 2018 as the brand joined Groupe PSA.

The Business+ trim level was introduced in 2014 and added useful extras such as air conditioning, rear parking sensors, under seat storage for the passenger bench, body coloured front bumper, load-through flap to bulkhead, fold-down middle seat for a mobile office and wide view blind-spot mirror to the standard Business specification.

WHAT’S GOOD?

This is a fresh looking medium sized panel van offering a variety of body styles and power outputs, including fuel-efficient twin turbo engines. Popular with SMEs as well as fleets, the Trafic comes with a 4-year/100,000 warranty, 4-year roadside assistance package from new and benefits from a timing chain that requires no servicing work.

The cabin is comfortable and well laid out, with the driver benefitting from an adjustable driver’s seat. There is a robust quality about the fixtures and fittings, with plenty of storage. Standard security features include deadlocks and immobiliser.

Frugal diesel engines, good handling, a spacious load area and the large Pro+ dealer network continue to help Renault to establish the Trafic as a popular new and used van.

WHAT’S BAD?

Check for cracked exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) valves, ineffective parking brakes and faulty bonnet catches. The Trafic continues to lag behind the competition with regards safety features. There is no automatic gearbox available for this model, this option was introduced with the fourth generation model.

IDEAL BUY?

Renault Trafic Business+ SL29dCi Energy 120PS on a 16/16 plate with 66k miles on the clock.

Glass Retail £8,975

Glass Trade £6,850

LCV Used Marketplace update – October 2019

NEW MARKET

September registration totals marked the first decline of 2019 for new Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs), with total registrations falling 23.5% versus September 2018.

Breaking the month down by sectors reveals growth for Vans under 2.0 tonnes of 12.3%, and Vans between 2.0-2.5 tonnes (16.8%), whilst the Pickup sector and Vans between 2.5-3.5 tonnes declined by 18.8% and 35.2% respectively.

September 2019 saw the launch of Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) and it appears that this has effected registrations due to vehicle availability. In a regular month, over 60% of registrations occur in the 2.5-3.5 tonne sector, in September 2019 this reduced to 54%. The lack of available WLTP compliant LCVs, especially chassis conversions, is having an adverse effect.

Nevertheless, the LCV market remains healthy with year to date (YTD) registrations standing at 286,616. This equates to a 4.5% increase on the same period last year, with buyers continuing to seek out the cleanest vehicles and the best deals on pre-WLTP stock.

Top five LCV registrations

Top five LCV registrations October 2019

Following predictions, many buyers have taken advantage of strong offers on LCVs during the first three quarters of the year ahead of regulatory changes resulting in increasing prices for WLTP compliant vehicles. However, many buyers remain reluctant to change vehicles with ongoing political and economic uncertainty continuing to influence business confidence.

Used Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Auction Market Overview – September

Overview

In what should be a buoyant buying period, the September wholesale market was subdued. Compounded by significant volumes of duplicate vehicles available across all segments, buyers are in no a rush to increase stock levels whilst the economic and political uncertainty continues.

September stock sales are on average, 1.6 months older than twelve months ago, at 65.5 months, but 1.6 months younger than last month. Average mileage is 72,600 miles, a decrease of 2,070 miles on last September, but near unmoved on August. The average sale price for the month increased by over £200 on August but was down over £250 on September 2018.

Overall, September sales volumes declined 8.9% on August and stand 14.6% behind September last year. Of the vehicles sold, average first-time conversion rates increased by 1.9% to 79.0. These changes highlight the volatility in the market and the general caution of the buyer.

Small Vans: 33.8% of overall sales

The Berlingo, Combo, Caddy and Transit Connect represent the largest volumes of sold vehicles. Although volumes sold during September were down nearly 11% on August, average prices were up over 4%. Sold stock was 5 months younger, whilst average mileage was over 400 miles higher than in August.

Strongest performances during the month were for the Peugeot Partner, the Renault Kangoo and the Ford Transit Connect where average prices all increased over the previous month. The Nissan eNV200 returned a near 12% increase in prices over the month, proving demand for battery powered LCVs continues to grow. All other ranges returned reductions in average prices.

Medium Vans: 33.6% of overall sales

September proved to be a positive month for Medium Vans. Although volumes sold decreased by 175 units versus August, first time conversion rates improved by 1.0% to 81.5%. Sale prices also saw an improvement of over 2.0% with an average prices exceeding £7,000. Transporter, Transit Custom, Trafic, Vivaro and Dispatch proved to be the volume sellers during the month, with only Vauxhall and Volkswagen returning average price increases.

Large Vans: 18.3% of overall sales

Following Medium Van positivity, Large Panel volumes sold were down by nearly 6.0% on August, with first time conversion rates improving by 0.5% to 78.9%. As with the Medium Van sector, sale prices also saw improvement, this time by over 6.25% with average prices exceeding £6,600. The Transit and Sprinter made up nearly 60% of all sales in this sector, with average sale prices increasing by £450 on August. Somewhat surprisingly, no range returned an average price increase during September.

4×4 Pickups: 13.1% of overall sales

Demand for 4×4 Pickups fell for the third month in a row, this time by over 130 units. Improvements to September stock quality saw average mileage decreasing 2,500 miles and average age reducing 3.9 months, driving average sale prices to improve by 6.25% and now stand just short of £10,000. Although sales of the L200 and Navara reduced nearly 12% during the month, they still made up over 50% of all sales. The Amarok continues to sell when condition and miles are right with September prices improving by over 9%. Buyers continue to seek higher specification Defenders, with the best XS and special edition models continuing to sell for exceptional prices.

Motorcycle market round up – September 2019

Following a significant downturn in motorcycle registrations in June, July made a modest recovery. According to the Motorcycle Industry Association (MCIA), registrations once again suffered a decline in August, being 8.2% behind August 2018. For the industry, this is no doubt disappointing; however, taking into account difficult economic conditions and Brexit drawing closer, it is not much of a surprise. Paul McDonald, Glass’s Leisure Vehicles Editor said, “The UK has recently appointed a new Prime Minister, there is significant uncertainty surrounding Brexit with talk of a snap election only subduing consumer confidence further”.

Dealer sentiment suggests demand for new machines is reducing with lower showroom footfall, although August year-to-date (YTD) registrations are actually 2% ahead of 2018.

August 2019 Highlights

  • Three out of nine categories recorded growth
  • Trail/Enduro recorded the largest increase at 22%, albeit these are sold in small numbers
  • Mopeds continue to give a stronger performance
  • Adventure Sports recorded a modest upturn in August

Hot YTD in August

  • Honda PCX125 remains top of the table
  • BMW R1250 GS was runner up, continuing success from the outgoing R1200
  • Kawasaki Z1000SX continues its strong performance
  • Yamaha MT-07 ABS retains its success

What can the industry expect moving forward?

In view of the political backdrop, registration performance during the next few months will likely depend on the outcome of Brexit. Glass’s view is that registrations will remain subdued for the remainder of the year and into the first half of 2020. If the UK exits the EU at the end of October, with or without a deal, it will still take time for consumer confidence to recover whilst the real possibility of a General Election will be a further hindrance.

Used Sales

This month, dealer feedback suggests demand is broadly in line with last year. Despite declining consumer confidence, the used motorcycle market continues to be healthier than the new market.

Top Performers

  • Triumph Tiger 800 is a strong performer
  • Kawasaki Z1000SX continues its success
  • BMW R1200 GS Adventure remains buoyant
  • Strong demand for quality 125cc machines

August continued the theme of recent months with the majority of dealers finding stock availability broadly in line with last year. Dealers are finding in demand models of the Triumph Bonneville and Yamaha MT ranges are difficult to locate. In view of these machines making popular new choices, reduced consumer spending is encouraging dealers to search for used examples. This is starting to reduce availability of the most sought after models as dealers quickly snap up quality examples from the market.

Despite this, most dealers report stock levels to be stronger than last year and correct for forecast demand, indicating the increased proactivity continues to have a positive effect.

Riding conditions throughout the summer have been largely changeable following the annual summer deluge of rain followed by boiling sunshine. With the peak holiday season over, dealer opinion suggests September’s demand will remain level. However, at this time of the year, it is ever more weather dependent and many dealers are cautious in view of the political backdrop. Considering this, for October’s data, the Glass’s team are applying a modest easing of values across the guide, except where trade feedback or evidence from the market place indicates further adjustments are necessary.

September’s Used Van Hero

For those wanting economy, safety features and a high level of specification

The Glass’s Commercial Vehicle Team names the Volkswagen Caddy Highline van their Used Van Hero for September 2019.

Each month, the Glass’s Commercial Vehicle team meets to name their current Used Van Hero in the UK market. This is the model they believe offers versatility, economy and outstanding value for money in the used van market.

Andy Picton, Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor: “The Caddy continues to stand the test of time. Well engineered, a good level of specification and with impressive safety features”.

Andy added, “High specification examples with air conditioning and metallic paint are in high demand and have a good following amongst used van buyers”

WHY?

This is a well-engineered van with a comfortable driving position. It is available in a variety of engine powers, manual and DSG transmissions and three trim levels. This is an impressive van range including the big brother versions, the Caddy Maxi. 

WHEN WAS IT ON SALE?

Initially built in Pennsylvania and launched in North America in 1979 as the VW Rabbit Pick-up, the small pick-up launched in Europe in 1982 renamed as the Caddy. Renewed and updated by Volkswagen, the Caddy is now in its fourth generation.

WHAT’S GOOD?

The Caddy continues to offer customers historically strong residual values.  Available with impressive fuel economy up to 60.1mpg (NEDC), as standard, the Caddy has ABS, EBD, ESP, driver and passenger front and curtain airbags and Automatic Post Collision Braking. Volkswagen is also the only commercial vehicle manufacturer to fit Autonomous Emergency Braking as standard, to all its vans.

The top of the range Highline model comes with an excellent level of specification including, alloy wheels, full body coloured bumpers, door mirrors and handles, rear parking sensors, front fog lights, climatic air conditioning, heated windscreen, alarm and Discover media navigation system. Volkswagen works closely with customers in the UK with its dedicated van centre network offering extended opening hours.

WHAT’S BAD?

Based on retail prices, there are cheaper vans in the sector, whilst maximum payloads fall short of some of the competition in this sector. Water pumps can be problematic, whilst the Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) valves can fail. Higher mileage examples with blue smoke from the exhaust, may be showing the first signs of injector problems. Check for possible issues on the DSG gearbox if you are going to opt for an automatic.

IDEAL BUY?

  • 1616 plate
  • Volkswagen Caddy Highline
  • C20 2.0TDI 102ps
  • 45,000 miles on the clock
  • Glass Trade £8,500 excluding vat
  • Glass Retail £9,675 excluding vat

Motorcaravan Market Update October 2019

New market activity

Data released by the National Caravan Council (NCC) shows volumes of motorhomes registered between January and July this year was up 5.1% compared to 2018, at 10,440 units. The statistics mirror feedback the Glass’s Editorial Team are receiving from dealers showing heavy stock levels are finally reducing.

‘Batten down the hatches’ was how one dealer forecast the coming months. There are factors that the market will have to contend with this year, and the majority of dealers believe the factors will hinder registrations. The most problematic topics in this market are WLTP (Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure), motorhome vehicle reclassification and Brexit.

WLTP is a revised testing process aiming to measure CO2 output levels more accurately. Implemented by governments across Europe, and some other countries including Japan, India and South Korea it aims to reduce emission levels by encouraging manufacturers to produce cleaner engines to meet stricter targets. As the tests now measure CO2 output when the vehicle is driving at different speeds, accelerating and braking, the test results often increase significantly compared to the previous NEDC (New European Driving Cycle) test.

On its own, this is not a major issue for motorhome owners. However, historically motorhome classification followed commercial vehicles for Vehicle Excise Duty (VED) purposes. From the 1st September 2019, the motorhomes taxation class changes to the car classification. In the UK, there are very different emission taxation bands for commercial vehicles compared to cars.  Vehicle Excise Duty (VED) rates increase with increasing CO2 outputs and motorhomes will sit in the highest band.  Dealers fear that this will affect sales of new motorhomes, as VED will increase from £265 to £2,135, an increase of 705%.  Dealers argue that rising cost new prices in recent years have affected sales, and this new price increase will add to that concern.

Dealer confidence is low and nothing is more telling of this than the low levels of new stock orders from manufacturers. Orders were considerably lower in 2019 after ambitious levels of production and dealer orders in 2018 for a market that did not live up to expectations. The reduced orders are frustrating for manufacturers, but dealers want to understand how the crucial first few months of the 2020-season play out before committing to additional stock.

In a strange turn of events, many dealers can see the much maligned unsold 2018 and 2019 stock still clogging up forecourts is becoming the most sought after stock. This is down to the units being unused, similar in design and specification to the latest models and but most importantly competitively priced after discounts whilst being unaffected by WLTP, reclassification and VED changes.

And then there is Brexit….

Many dealers are reporting to the Glass’s Motor Caravan team their concerns surrounding Brexit. These concerns focus on a reduction in consumer spending despite heavy discounts offered by manufacturers, who believe the incentives have been crucial in getting sales over the line since 2018.

What is most concerning for manufacturers and dealers is how these concerns will affect one of the biggest retail shows of the year – The Motorhome and Caravan Show at the NEC, Birmingham between 15th and 20th October. Traditionally, the October show sets the trend of how the season will go. It is hard to predict if the potential high levels of demand can outweigh the economical hindrances that the market continues the face.

Used market activity

If one thing has become consistent, it is that the used market regularly experiences peaks and troughs. The good spells, which usually last half a year stem from customers shunning the new market due to inflated cost new prices. The used market offers more competitive pricing and a more viable option for new customers interested in purchasing a motorhome. Then our data shows that the market experiences a dip when dealers struggle to obtain ready to retail stock at affordable prices. The high demand always outweighs the small pool of available stock forcing used values to increase. Customers will then see new models priced very competitively due to heavy discounts and take up the option of buying a brand new motorhome for only a little more than their original price budget.

The UK used market was very buoyant off the back of summer 2018, all the way until early this year. Then the market comprehensively slowed down, as used stock began to run out. Dealers are reticent about their year to date results compared to 2018. However, cash rich dealers appear to be making more ground due available funding to purchase wide ranges of stock as soon as it becomes available, whereas smaller businesses have to be more selective, limiting them against their competitors. Feedback received from smaller dealers confirms that sourcing quality used stock is still the most testing part of the business.

In the October edition of Glass’s Caravan data values have held. For subscribers of the Glass’s caravan app, please ensure that you regularly update the current editions to receive the latest datasets. Since the July 2017 edition, we have added over 1000 previously unvalued models to our database.

Holiday Home Market Update October 2019

Brexit lingers on. Today in the UK, the staycation holiday continues to grow in popularity, regardless and because of Brexit. The majority of holiday home dealers and parks contacted by the Glass’s Leisure Team suggest the uncertainty surrounding the planned withdrawal on October 31 is to blame for reduced sales of new units. However, comments also suggest demand for used units is increasing versus 2018.

The new market

Market feedback continues to show large amounts of 2019-model year stock remain unsold resulting in fewer dealer and factory orders from holiday parks. The volume of unsold stock is such that forecasts suggest high availability until Easter. This in turn is reducing manufacturer production. Confirming this, figures released by the National Caravan Council (NCC), show holiday home production at the end of July 2019 reduced 11.9% to 12,627 units with dispatches onto holiday parks in the same period also decreasing, with 13,043 dispatched, a decrease of 6.5%.

Comments to the Glass’s Leisure Team include ‘topsy-turvy’ and ‘strange scenarios’ when discussing the market over the past few months. After being steady and stable in recent years, it is unusual to hear phrases like these attributed to the holiday home market.

The market for new units is tricky for manufacturers and parks. The level of production swamped the market to the point where production is reducing whilst built stock discounts are commonplace. Manufacturers and parks are offering strong incentives to potential customers with some parks even offering lifetime leases on new units. The Glass’s leisure team note that customers remain attracted to new units over used due to the incentives on offer.

Feedback from manufacturers and holiday parks confirms mid-range models are currently least popular. Entry-level and premium models are attracting more interest, suggesting there are two customer types in the market. Entry-level models starting around £25,000 continue to attract new customers, especially younger families and previous owners of holiday returning to the market.

Premium models, ranging from approximately £60,000 are attracting older customers, many who have access to larger sums following retirement.

The used market

With more used units with specification from 2012, when manufacturers started including central heating and double-glazing on the majority of models becoming available at reasonable prices, sourcing quality used stock with the correct specification is becoming easier.

Many holiday parks and dealers are of the opinion there is still the possibility the market can grow if sales continue to progress steadily through the next economically turbulent months. Evidence shows that the staycation market is growing. According to Barclays, 31% of holidaymakers want to spend more time in the UK compared to previous years. In the holiday home markets issues persist, including the rising costs of purchasing holiday homes and pitch rates, issues the industry needs to look at as a whole.

Values for the October edition of Glass’s data have been reduced by 2.5%.

Touring Caravan Market Update October 2019

Touring Caravan market overview

Once again, summer is behind us and whilst variable compared to last year, it provided a fair amount of hot weather, with the UK temperature rising in July, to a new record of 38.7C in Cambridgeshire. It has been another tough year for the industry, with continued political and economic conditions affecting consumer confidence.

The annual HERMCA Lawns outdoor show took place at Cottingham, near Hull for the final time after 44 years. Next year, the show is moving to Harrogate, forming a larger event to promote the industry. At the show, understandably, caution remains for 2020 in view of the political backdrop however, manufacturers are remaining optimistic.

With the aim or providing an early indicator of the performance of the 2020 season, the next NEC show takes place in Birmingham between the 15th and 20th October. However, this year, with the current Brexit deadline looming large, the show timing could have been better.

New market

During the last quarter, dealer feedback suggested order intake was behind last year. A number of dealers stated there was little order take consistency in the quarter. Aside from the political backdrop, towing laws continue to hinder younger families from purchasing a caravan, encouraging them to look at a motorcaravan as an alternative. There is some concern that the touring market is being squeezed at both ends with pensioners also moving over to motorcaravans as they are easier to manage.

However, it was not all bad news with a number of dealers seeing an increase in first time buyers, including younger families.  Sales of the Swift Basecamp have been healthy this year with customers progressing to these entry-level vans from tents. Interestingly, some families have purchased Basecamps with double awnings as an alternative to heavier vans to overcome the towing law.

Although unsold 2019 models are now clearing the market, there is still a large amount of carry over stock sold at heavily discounted prices. However, dealers have been more cautious when ordering 2020 models, so hopefully there will be less of an issue at the end of the 2020 model year.

Market Statistics July 2019 vs 2018

  • Production of units intended for UK distribution was 17.5% down
  • Moving annual total [MAT] was 14.2% down
  • Factory invoiced sales saw a downturn of 26.6%
  • Moving annual total [MAT] for factory sales was 14.7% down
Caravan market factory invoiced sales graph July 2019 vs 2018
Touring caravan home production graph July 2019 vs 2018

Key Points

  • Demand for 2-berths is down on last year
  • Demand for 4-berths and larger family units including twin axles are broadly in line
  • Majority of dealers are offering more discount
  • Customer finance penetration is weaker with few PCP deals and 10 year HP the preferred choice
  • Transverse island bed layouts with centre washrooms remain the top choice

Used Market

The news continues to be more positive for the used market with the majority of dealers holding the opinion that sales have been broadly in line with last year. Some dealers stated that vans with a retail price up to £12,000 are selling well, with anything over tending to be more difficult to sell. This highlights consumers choosing used as affordable alternatives to new vans. However, whilst used is less affected by the political backdrop, it is certainly not immune, with some dealers finding both new and used markets tough.

Key Points

  • Demand for all berths including twin axles was broadly in line with last year
  • Stock availability has been more difficult
  • Transverse island beds continue to be the strongest sellers
  • French bed layouts are still selling well for some dealers
  • A fair number of dealers hold the view that their stock levels are too low

Summary

Following a few strong years for new sales, 2018 and more especially 2019 have faltered in comparison. However, in view of developments within the political landscape, it has perhaps been inevitable. Moving ahead to 2020 much depends on the outcome of Brexit. If the UK does leave the European Union at the end of October, it could be a stronger year, albeit unlikely to be outstanding. However, the majority of dealers believe 2020 is likely to be another tough year and most likely similar to 2019. The used market could continue in a similar vein next year but caution is required for later models, in view of strongly discounted unsold 2019 models.

October Edition

For this edition, taking into account the time of year and the market place, values have been reduced across the board, except where trade feedback or evidence from the market place has indicated further adjustments where necessary.

LCV Used Marketplace Update September 2019

NEW MARKET

Top five LCV registrations

Top 5 LCV registrations September 2019

August’s total delivered a record month for LCV registrations, driven by demand for the latest and cleanest vehicles. Moving forward into the last four months of 2019, supply constraints and extended lead times could dampen registration totals as factories ramp up UK production of Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) compliant LCVs.

USED MARKET

Overview

In line with typical summer seasonality, the August wholesale market saw limited buyer demand compounded by significant volumes of duplicate vehicles available across all segments. Few buyers are in a rush to increase stock levels whilst economic and political uncertainty continues around the Brexit debate.

Stock sales are on average, 10.5 months older than twelve months ago, at 77.0 months, with average mileage at 80k miles, an increase of 1,650 miles on last August. These increases highlight the caution in the market.

Overall, August sales volumes declined 25.5% on July and stand 47.3% behind August last year. Of the vehicles sold, average first-time conversion rates increased by 1.2% to 77.8%, a 1.4% increase on the same point 12 months ago. The average sale price for the month decreased nearly £150 on July and nearly £1,000 down on August 2018. It is also the first time since December 2017 that the average sale price has dropped below £5,000.

Small Vans: 37% of overall sales

Most vans in this sector are readily available, with Berlingo, Partner, Combo and Transit Connect represented in number with buyers paying lower prices than July. Volkswagen Caddy Maxi vans on 15 plates are also available in number, with only best presented with sensible miles achieving strong hammer prices. Kangoo and Doblo remain value for money, whilst demand for electric vans continues to grow as buyers tune in to the benefits of battery powered LCVs. Volumes sold during August were down by nearly 250 units versus July.

Medium Vans: 36% of overall sales

Prices in this sector were down nearly £175 in August, whilst volumes sold reduced by nearly 200 units as supply continues to outweigh demand. However, first time conversion rates during August increased by over 5% to 81.2%. Transporter, Transit Custom, Trafic, Vivaro and Dispatch continue to perform for vendors, with the best-presented crew vans continuing to generate premiums, especially high specification versions.

Large Vans: 17% of overall sales

Transit FWD 350 models continue to attract attention and continue to outperform their RWD equivalent, with versions in colour and higher trim levels in the most demand. Renault’s Master remains a popular price range van with those offered with sensible miles selling with little difficulty. Pressure is mounting on prices for unloved high mileage examples of drop side or tipper models on the Transit chassis. However, Luton box vans on Transit or Sprinter chassis perform well, with the best examples gaining buyer attention. In summary, sales in this sector dropped over 175 units and nearly £300 on average versus July.

4×4 Pickups: 10% of overall sales

Sales in this sector were almost 90 units down, with first time conversion dropping to 57.7%, 3.2% down on July. In a sector where supply and demand remains an issue, only the best examples of L200 Barbarian and Warrior, Hilux Invincible and Ranger Wildtrak, preferably with automatic transmission, have found new homes. The Amarok has sold when condition and miles have been right, whilst mid-spec Isuzu D-Max, Ranger and Hilux have performed strongly. Although often seen as value for money, the sale of older stock continues to be heavily dependent on mileage and condition.Buyers continue to overlook basic specification Defenders in preference for higher specification versions. The best presented XS and special edition models continue to sell for exceptional prices.

Range anxiety: still a concern or a distant memory?

What is range anxiety?

The fear that an electric vehicle has insufficient range to reach the end destination. With sales of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) on the rise, has range anxiety decreased or is still a concern for drivers?

Over the past three years, sales of BEVs in the used retail market have increased, suggesting they are growing in popularity. The following graph shows EV sales growth in the used retail market, from June 2016.  EVs now take 0.9% market share in the used market according to data from Glass’s Radar used retail analysis product.

BEVs used retail sales graph

Although the BEV market share may seem low, the relatively small battery range on many currently available in the used market results in them not working for everyone.  Most manufactures are heavily investing in BEV technology, which will result in this situation improving in time, as recent new releases show. As an example, the Renault Zoe, can achieve 242 miles and the new Hyundai Kona can achieve up to 279 miles, and it is only a matter of time before these filter through into the used market, opening this technology up to many more consumers.

The charging infrastructure in the UK has been growing at a rapid rate. In the autumn 2017 budget, the government pledged to mobilise around £400m of investment into the UK’s charging infrastructure to support their aim of increasing the amount of BEVs on the roads.

Strategies to alleviate range anxiety:

  • Extensive charging infrastructure. Charging points need to be accessible as easily as fuel stations with the capability to charge rapidly.
  • Higher capacity batteries at cost effective pricing. Batteries capable of holding more charge and achieving a larger range at more affordable price points.  With prices of BEVs high in comparison to their petrol/diesel equivalents, customers may find the cost too high to make the change.
  • Battery swapping technology.  Technology where you could drive to a BEV charging centre and simply swap the ‘dead’ battery for a full one. At this moment, this seems the least likely to happen due to costs and safety. This technology is currently in use on forklift trucks; however, the batteries are much smaller. Upscaling to a BEV car battery could prove difficult and costly.
  • Extended range. Battery capacities in BEVs are getting bigger to deliver additional range. Nissan’s second generation Leaf now has a range has up to 239-mile with the Leaf E+ compared to the standard vehicle with a range of 168-miles. This is more than enough mileage for the average driver to complete most journeys.

Manufacturers are targeting substantial growth in this fuel type, however today, it is difficult to say whether range anxiety is still the biggest concern for drivers or whether supply issues remain the biggest blocker to significant growth in the UK. Announcing this month, the UK government confirmed that company car drivers choosing to drive a BEV would pay no benefit-in-kind tax in 2020/21. This will have met with universal approval whilst giving manufacturers confidence to ramp-up production for the UK market.

With BIK rates for BEVs only increasing by 1% per year for the following two years, the Glass’s team forecast significant increases in demand. However, the charging infrastructure is still a consideration here. Whilst this issue remains, BEVs will continue to struggle to gain significant market share.  

Range anxiety may always be an issue for some drivers whilst conventional fuel types still hold the market, but with the BEV market share rising, the future is beginning to look electric.

August’s Used Van Hero

For those wanting reliability and economy

The third generation facelift Ford Transit (in production 2006-2013) has been named as Glass’s Used Van Hero for August.

Each month, Glass’s Commercial Vehicle editors hold a meeting to name the current Used Van Hero in the UK market – the model they believe offers versatility, economy and outstanding value for money.

Andy Picton, Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor: “The much-loved V347 and V348 Transit was available in numerous guises with a wide choice of reliable engines and has been the mainstay of many a business over the years”.

Andy added that “anyone requiring a fit for purpose, cost effective commercial vehicle, could do a lot worse than buy a Transit. There are still plenty available on the used market with the nicest examples still eagerly sought after”

WHY?

The backbone of Britain is the strapline that sums up this commercial vehicle perfectly. The third generation Transit won the International Van of the Year in 2007 and has been the choice of many companies over the years. Remains popular with the used van buyer and is a mainstay of SME and one man bands alike, the Transit offers something for everyone.

WHEN WAS IT ON SALE?

Originally launched in 1953. Third Generation (2000-06) Third Generation facelift (2006-13)

WHAT’S GOOD?

Well-built and relatively cheap to maintain. Strong durable engines if maintained correctly, which in turn will give years of trouble free motoring. Well maintained, low mileage stock is still available with buyers often entering into a bidding war for the right to take ownership of the best examples.

WHAT’S BAD?

Sporadic issues with EGR valves and DPF filters. Check for a service history where possible. Concerns over increased number of thefts, so ensure a fully operational alarm is fitted.

IDEAL BUY?

Ford Transit FWD 280 2.2TDCI 100PS SWB M/Roof 1313 plate with 60,000m on clock.

Glass Retail £5,750 Trade £3,900

Motorcycle market round up – August 2019

Stalling motorcycle registrations in May coupled with a significant downturn in June comes as a disappointment following a stronger start to the year. Unfortunately, the decline is not a major surprise in view UK political developments, with the UK failing to leave the EU and another change of Prime Minister.

Moving forward to July and the Motorcycle Industry Association (MCIA) recorded total registrations showing modest recovery at 4.1% ahead of July 2018. Although better news for the industry, total registrations in July 2018 were 2.2% behind those in 2017, which in turn were 12% behind 2016. 

Some of the improvement this year is a result of increased moped sales. This segment continues their recent growth, with registrations 29.6% ahead of last year. Analysis of market dynamics suggests some of this growth is a result of food delivery companies such as Uber Eats creating demand for high volumes of these machines for business use, rather than an influx of new younger riders into the market. Also good news in July was the resumption of growth in the Adventure Sports and Naked segments.

Recent dealer feedback shows mixed outlooks in the market with a slight bias towards equal sales for the full year. This continues to indicate an erratic market likely to witness further turmoil as we enter September and Q4 2019.

With the political backdrop and economic uncertainty intensifying as the UK prepares once again to leave the EU, this time at the end of October, Glass’s view is that total registrations for 2019 are likely to finish similar to 2018, a year that recorded growth of just 0.5% over 2017, which itself was 18% behind 2016.

As always in the motorcycle market, there is continuing interest in each of the segments with new model launches coupled to dealer offers designed to create demand. Over the coming months, the Glass’s team will continue to monitor the whole market and report changes as they happen.

LCV Used Marketplace Update August 2019

NEW MARKET

July returned the seventh consecutive month of growth for new Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs) as registrations rose by 10.95% versus July 2018 with 25,862 new vehicles registered. Demand remains strong with buyers attracted to the latest, cleanest vehicles. July returned increases of 17.2% and 16.9% respectively for the 2.0-2.5-tonne and 2.5-2.5-tonne sectors. Counteracting some of these increases was a 12.4% decline in the sub 2.0-tonne sector and a fourth consecutive monthly decline in the pickup sector, this time by 4.6%.

After seven months, year to date (YTD) registrations of new LCVs stand at 222,280. This is a 9.0% increase on the 204,005 registered over the same period in 2018. Based on this encouraging period, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) has increased its latest LCV registrations forecast to 363,000 units for the full year, up 1.4% on the 2018.

Top five LCV registrations

Top 5 LCV registrations table August 2019

July’s total ensured another strong month for LCV registrations, driven by the general demand for the latest and cleanest vehicles. As we move through quarter three and into Q4, there is the real prospect of supply constraints and extended lead times as factories ramp up UK production of Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) compliant LCVs.

USED MARKET

Overview

Reporting on July, retail and wholesale activity is slow, with economic caution and the holiday period cited as reasons. This is having a knock-on effect, with trade buyers less engaged with many only attending auctions to gain feedback on wholesale performance and pricing.

Over the last three years, the wholesale market has held up well, reducing the impact of seasonal fluctuations. Today, stock continues to return at an older age with higher miles and in poorer condition subsequently influencing buyer appetite.

Bucking the trend of a declining used market, small electric vans are very much in demand. This sub-sector is continues to command stronger prices on a monthly basis.

The average first-time conversion rates returned a 4.4% increase for July versus June however, remain 1.5% down on July last year. Nevertheless, the average sale price for the month was down nearly £300 on June and nearly £1,000 down on July 2018. The average age of the vehicles sold was 2.8 months older versus June and over a year older than stock sold in July 2018.

Small Vans – 36% of overall sales

From Fiesta Van to NV200, the majority of all vans in this sector continue to be available in numbers over the month. Later plate Combo, Transit Connect, Doblo, Caddy and Kangoo have come under further downward pressure, prices paid are more than £200 less than in June. Values for the eNV200, Berlingo/Partner electric and the Kangoo ZE electric vans continue to strengthen as buyers realise the merits of battery powered propulsion.

Medium Vans – 33% of overall sales

Prices in this sector steadied during July, with average sale prices on a par with June. Volumes sold continue to fall in this sector, as supply continues to outweigh demand. The availability of plenty of late year PSA, Ford and VW product is not helping their performance. However, crew vans generally continue to yield good prices for vendors. Older, but tidy examples of Dispatch/Expert/Proace, early Transit Custom, Trafic/Vivaro or Transporter have little trouble in finding buyers. Examples of ex-utility Transit 300 SWB M/Roof continue to prove popular with seeking something a little different.

Large Vans – 20% of overall sales

Sprinter and Transit FWD 290 and 350 models continue to attract attention, with colour versions with sensible miles selling strongly. Higher specification Citroen Relay, Peugeot Boxer and Renault Master models are good value for money. Similarly, tidy examples of curtain sider, drop side or tipper continue to attract buyer attention with solid prices, especially if mileages are low. Examples of the current Crafter are available in volume and consequently prices are tumbling, with many emanating from ex-rental sources.

4×4 Pickups – 11% of overall sales

Too much similar stock continues to blight this sector, with average prices paid nearly £375 lower than June. However, high specification L200 Barbarian, Ranger Wildtrak, Navara Tekna and Hilux Invincible with automatic transmission are relatively easy to shift if the vendors are willing to work with the buyers. Vendors holding out rigidly for their reserves find few buyers. The Amarok Highline and Fiat Fullback continue to underperform. Older stock is faring better, with buyers seeing older examples as better value for money. Government sourced basic specification Defenders fail to inspire buyers who are keen on higher specification XS and special edition models, with near retail prices paid for the best stock.

H1 2019 Car Market Report: UK

The resilience of diesel

As we reach the halfway point in the year, we reflect on how the UK new and used car markets have developed together with a possible direction for the rest of the year and 2020.

June 2018

New car registrations fell again in June according to the UK’s Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). Overall registrations fell by 4.9% versus June 2018 to 223,421 whilst diesel car registrations fell for the 27th consecutive month, by 20.5%, and show no sign of an imminent recovery.

June 2019 and 2018 total by sales channel graph

Sales Channels

In the main sales channels, the story so far this year is negative however; the year-to-date comparison is a little brighter than the June 2018 to June 2019 comparison for private and fleet.

H1 2019 Car Market sales channel table

Surprisingly, an overall 4.3% negative trend for alternatively fuelled vehicles in June, driven by a 4.7% fall in demand for self-charging hybrids and an incredible decline of 50.4% for plug-in hybrids shows instability in the market. This decline is partly due to availability and partly due to the removal of the plugin grant by the UK Government. The SMMT’s Chief Executive Mike Hawes continues to raise concerns that the billions invested by manufacturers to bring these vehicles to market “are now being undermined by confusing policies and the premature removal of purchase incentives”.  However, registrations of battery electric vehicles (BEV) grew substantially in percentage terms (up 61.9%). In reality, this large percentage increase only represents 941 units.

End of month sales by fuel and channel graph June 2019

Petrol car registrations increased in June by 3.3% accounting for 66.9% of the market, an increase of over 5 percentage points compared to last year. The diesel share fell by 5 points to only 26.4% following the 27th consecutive monthly decline, in June being down 19.6%.

Year to Date 2019

With the exception of a small amount of growth in February, new car registrations have struggled throughout the first half of 2019. Brexit related economic and political uncertainty has contributed to an overall feeling of unease across most sectors including automotive and continues to influence the declining automotive market. However, the major factor appears to be the continued decline in diesel sales.

So far, in 2019 total new car registrations have fallen by 44,749. Solely analysing diesel registrations, sales of this fuel type are down an astonishing 83,129. The dramatic shift away from diesel began in 2017 when significant negative press reporting started having an effect on sales.

Last year, the introduction of WLTP testing also affected diesel take-up in the company car market, with drivers deferring taking a new car until they fully understood what revised CO2 figures would look like and how that would affect their benefit-in-kind (BIK) tax liability. There were also significant supply issues that led to leasing contract extensions. This year sees further complications. In September a new engine emissions standard comes into force (RDE2). New diesel cars that meet this standard will no longer attract the current diesel BIK penalty of an additional 4%. It is likely that company car users that are due to change will hold off choosing a new car until many more RDE2 compliant cars are available in the market.

So far, in the first half of 2019 new car registrations have fallen by 3.4% versus 2018 with the majority of the decline coming from the Private and Business sales channels.

YTD by sales channel all fuel graph June 2019 vs 2018

In terms of the fuel type split, diesel continues to be the hardest hit fuel type with a year to date decline of 18.6%.

YTD sales by fuel and channel graph June 2019

The SMMT’s June statistics set out the impact that mild hybrids are having on the new car market, for the first time. Mild hybrids are becoming increasingly popular with manufacturers adding them to their ranges. Depending on installation, they can allow internal combustion engines to be switched off whenever a car is coasting, braking or is stopped, and can restart the engine quickly when required. The mild hybrid element can also boost power output. Not designed to power a vehicle with battery alone, they do not need the same level of battery storage capacity as a full hybrid. Although, without this they are unable to achieve the fuel efficiency associated with a full hybrid, they still save drivers money at the pump and reduce CO2 emissions compared to pure internal combustion engine cars.

H1 2019 car market June YTD registrations AFVs graph

Year to date 2019, there have been 4,293 mild hybrid diesel cars registered compared to just 702 last year, a rise of 511%. As for petrol mild hybrids, there have been 1,212 more registrations than last year, a 52.4% increase. Although AFVs fell in June, their overall year-to-date position including mild hybrids remains strong, with growth of almost 14%. What is currently unclear is whether mild hybrids class as alternative fuel vehicles or not.

The used market

The UK wholesale auction market is showing some very small signs of recovery. While buyer activity is not yet back to the level it was last year, recent guide value reductions have started to make cars look better value for money, stimulating the market. However, the notoriously lack-lustre summer period is here with record UK temperature levels of 37 degrees, so a marked recovery is not expected. That said, with first time conversion rates two percentage points higher than in May, vendors should draw comfort that the downward trajectory the market experienced so far this year, is starting to level out.

In the UK retail used car market prices are taking longer to reduce than in the wholesale market suggesting some stability if taken in isolation. However, it is likely that retail prices will fall in line with the wholesale market heading into Q3 2019 as demand for hybrid, plug-in hybrid and BEVs continues to increase as increasing volumes change hands.

BEV a trickle to full bore in 2020              

With total cost of ownership arguably more advantageous for BEV than their ICE counterparts and many cities in the UK already incentivising their use such as London and Milton Keynes, BEVs are becoming ever more attractive to new and used car buyers in the UK. Dealers continue training courses offered by manufacturers and industry bodies such as the National Franchise Dealer association whilst independent dealers are ensuring they remain in the mix as they update their knowledge about this burgeoning segment of the market.

Leasing companies are also considering remarketing the vehicles 2 to 3 times through additional leases whilst reconditioning the battery when required.

Range anxiety continues to diminish as more and more drivers start to understand the physics involved with driving any car, whether it has an internal combustion engine (ICE) or a BEV, range varies with use whilst hot and cold weather driving also requires energy to heat or cool the vehicle. One of the greatest advantages of BEVs is that you can generate energy whilst on the move. Just like an ICE car, a BEV will use energy going up a hill, but on the way down it can convert kinetic energy into electrical energy adding a little to the vehicle’s range.

In the UK, infrastructure continues to be a point of discussion. As of the 24 July 2019, according to Zap-Map.com, there are 2,321 public rapid charging devices in 1,593 locations across the UK with 24,682 public chargers in total.

H1 2019 Breakdown of public charging point connections in each UK region

The pie chart above shows the breakdown of public charging point connectors in each of the UK regions. London and the Southeast have the most charging points followed by Scotland; the regions with the least charging points are Yorkshire and Wales.

Source https://www.zap-map.com

The charging infrastructure needs to improve, especially destination chargers when the car would be stationary for extended periods, for example in work carparks, whist drivers are shopping or at the cinema. However, we need to remember that drivers can charge a car at any of 40 billion 3-pin plug sockets across the UK and home charging is where 95% of BEV charges currently take place.

Heading into 2020, the main stimulus for BEV demand in the UK will from fleet and business drivers with the reduction of benefit in kind (BIK) taxation rates for company car drivers. Announcing this month, the UK government confirmed that company car drivers choosing to drive a BEV would pay no benefit-in-kind tax in 2020/21. This will have met with universal approval whilst giving manufacturers confidence to ramp-up production for the UK market.

With BIK rates for BEVs only increasing by 1% per year for the following two years, the Glass’s team forecast significant increases in demand for BEVs.

Range anxiety may always be an issue for some drivers whilst conventional fuel types still hold the market, but with the BEV market share rising, the future is beginning to look electric.

Motorcycle market round up – July 2019

Sales of new motorcycles grew in the first four months of 2019 compared to last year, which was no doubt good news for the industry. However, according to the Motorcycle Industry Association (MCIA), registrations stalled in May with totals finishing 0.5% behind 2018. June then experienced a more significant decline finishing 11.2% behind the same period last year.

Although disappointing, it is perhaps not surprising with recent developments within the political landscape. Paul McDonald, Glass’s Leisure Vehicles Editor said, “Since the UK voted to leave the EU on the 23rd June 2016, economic uncertainty has plagued the country. Whilst this is nothing new, following the UK’s failure to leave the EU on the 29th March, Prime Minister Teresa May has resigned and once a new PM is appointed, a general election could be imminent. Recent developments have therefore likely intensified consumer insecurities further.” Recent feedback from dealers suggests that overall demand for new machines is behind last year.

June 2019 Highlights

                ●             Two out of nine categories recorded growth

                ●             Trail/enduro enjoyed the most significant growth, albeit these are sold in small numbers.

                ●             Mopeds continue to record a small increase

●             Following a buoyant run, Adventure Sport and Naked categories experienced a decline in June

Hot YTD in June

                ●             Honda PCX125 once again tops the table

                ●             BMW R1250 GS was runner up

                ●             Honda CRF1000L Africa Twin continues to sell well

                ●             Royal Enfield Interceptor remains a success

What can the industry expect moving forward?

It will be interesting to see how registrations perform during the next few months. However, Glass’s view is that after a strong start to the year, new motorcycle sales growth is likely to be subdued for the next few months at least, especially in view of the peak holiday season arriving. That is not to say 2019 will be a poor year, with YTD registrations so far remaining ahead of 2018.

Used Sales

Most recent feedback from dealers continues to suggest that demand is stronger than last year, with the majority of subscribers reporting healthy used sales. Although the political landscape continues to be a concern for the industry, with the next few months difficult to predict, the used market remains buoyant for now. The recently introduced ULEZ (Ultra Low Emission Zone) is leading to an increase customer demand in London for newer, cleaner examples.

                ●             Honda Africa Twins are a popular choice

                ●             Yamaha MT range continues to be buoyant

●          Triumph Tiger 800 is an impressive seller

●             Quality 125cc machines are often in strong demand

The majority of dealers held the opinion that stock availability was broadly in line with last year. However, it remains difficult for some, particularly sourcing quality 125cc machines. Sports machines are also harder to locate with fewer used machines in the market, due to declining new sales over a number of years. However, it was not all bad news with some dealers managing availability with no issues finding the correct stock.

The majority of dealers were of the opinion that their stock levels were stronger than last year, so increased proactivity continues to have a positive effect. Most respondents stated stock levels were matching demand, good news for the peak selling season.

Riding conditions were generally poor in June despite a brief heatwave at the end of the month. July’s weather started on a better note with some reasonable riding conditions, particularly in the South of the country. With the holiday season fast approaching, the majority of dealers believe demand will level-off during the next month, which is typical for the time of year. In August’s edition of Glass data, the 1919 plates have been added and to reflect this and time of year, a modest ease has been applied across much of the guide, except where trade feedback or evidence from them market place has indicated other adjustments where necessary.

LCV Used Marketplace update July 2019

NEW MARKET

June returned the sixth consecutive month of growth for new Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs) as registrations rose by 13.5% versus June 2018 with 29,142 new vehicles registered. Registrations in all sectors continue to remain strong, with lower emission vehicles and attractive market incentives driving demand. June returned increases of 10.3% in the sub 2.0 tonne sector and 22.2% in the 2.5-3.5 tonne sector. Offsetting some of these increases was a 3.6% decline in the 2.0-2.5 tonne sector and a third consecutive monthly decline in the pickup sector, this time by 0.7%.

At the halfway point of the year, year to date (YTD) registrations of new LCVs stands at 196,418. This is an 8.7% increase on the 180,696 registered over the same period in 2018.

Top five LCV registrations

Top 5 LCV registrations table July 2019

June’s total ensured a record first six months of the year for LCV registrations. Driven by the September 2019 introduction of the Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) for LCVs, many dealers are looking to clear NEDC compliant stock during the first half of the year. There is the likelihood of possible supply constraints and longer lead times through the latter part of the year as factories around the world ramp up UK production of WLTP compliant LCVs.

USED MARKET

Overview

Softer retail activity continues to impact buyer demand in the wholesale market. Buyers seem less engaged; with any stock offered in volume or looking tired or damaged continuing to be difficult to shift.

Stock needing no attention continues to receive the strongest bids from professional buyers. Increases in stock availability has meant similarly specified vehicles not professionally managed into the marketplace, have seen prices come under further downward pressure.

Euro 6 stock accounted for less than 10% of all sales at auction last month. Most buyers are still happy trading in vehicles of at least two years old resulting in the general oversupply of stock and reductions in sale prices in each of the four main sectors versus May. The average first-time conversion rate also fell by 3.7% versus May and 12.2% versus June 2018.

Small Vans – 35% of overall sales

In the small van segment, Berlingo, Caddy and Transit Connect up to 3 years old were available in good supply whilst older 3-5 year old versions of the same vans generated good prices. Older examples of Kangoo, Doblo and Transit Connect continue to perform well.

Medium Vans – 35% of overall sales

Prices in the medium van sector are under growing pressure, with average sale prices nearly £1,000 lower than May. Even the best presented higher specification Transit Customs are struggling to find the same level of acceptance. An oversupply of late plate PSA and VW product is not helping the performance of newer plate vehicles. However, crew vans generally continue to yield good prices for vendors. Tidy examples of previous generation Dispatch/Expert/Proace have little trouble in finding buyers as have Vivaro and Trafic vans. Supplies of ex-utility Transit 300 SWB M/Roof are also proving popular with buyers.

Large Vans – 19% of overall sales

FWD 290 and 350 Transit models attracted plenty of attention over the month, with those in colour and with sensible miles selling strongly. Higher specification Citroen Relay, Peugeot Boxer and Renault Master models continue to prove popular. Similarly, tidy examples of curtain sider, drop side or tipper continue to attract buyer attention with solid prices, especially if mileages are low.

4×4 Pickups – 11% of overall sales

Too much similar stock continues to blight this sector, with even the nicest pickup coming under downward pressure. High specification Ranger Wildtrak, Navara Tekna and Hilux Invincible with automatic transmission are relatively easy to shift. However, the Amarok Highline and Fiat Fullback have generally underperformed. All models at 3-8 year old fared better. Rarer single cab and extended cab versions of L200, Ranger and Hilux also sold strongly commensurate with age and mileage.

This article was originally written for the Commercial Fleet blog.

Holiday Home Market Update July 2019

Figures released by the National Caravan Council (NCC), show that holiday home manufacturers produced 8,997 units as of the end of May 2019, which is a decrease of 15.5% compared to last year. There are reports that large amounts of 2018 stock remain unsold which has resulted in less dealer and Holiday Park orders, cutting manufacturer production. Dispatches onto holiday parks in the same period has also fallen, with 9,732 dispatched, a drop of 6.7%.

It is safe to say however, that the new and used markets are currently experiencing comfortable levels of stability. This is despite criticisms from within the industry that manufacturers have restricted market growth by increasing cost new prices each year. There does appear to be large amounts of unsold stock still available, with some attractive discounts on offer to help move them on.

Over the past two years, there has been a noticeable surge in interest for the ‘staycation’ holiday leading to strong demand. Barclays recently conducted a survey, which revealed interesting analysis of the growing popularity for ‘staycation’. Three in ten domestic holidaymakers plan to spend more holiday time in this country in 2019, than they have done in previous years. An ongoing concern for the industry is how to attract a younger generation to the market. Encouragingly, 52% of 25-32 years olds surveyed plan to increase their UK based holiday-time.

There may well be legitimate hindrances to the new market, but the majority of people that Glass’s spoke to, report sales to be steady. Enquiry levels appear to be in line with 2018, which is positive. An unexpectedly busy winter, certainly helped boost a stuttering market and this continued up until Easter for the majority. This is of course, all going on whilst Brexit continues to roll on. Many argue that Brexit uncertainty has driven more consumers to consider purchasing a holiday home instead of holidaying abroad.  While some argue that Brexit is causing economic uncertainty and keeping potential consumers from spending until a clearer vision for Brexit emerges.

Another positive is the current variety of new units on offer from manufacturers. Park owner feedback suggests they are pleased that manufacturers have increased their model ranges. They now feel that they are able to offer more layouts, and price points. The increase in layouts and price points appears to be tempting previous owners of holiday home back to the market after the hiatus of around a decade.

Much like the new market, the used market is in a stable position. Feedback we have received suggests that used unit sales are much the same as they were in 2018. The allure of ‘staycation’ holidays combined with the much more affordable prices for used units compared to new are integral to the market’s buoyancy. Along with the economic uncertainty, the used market has its own obstacles including the following:

  • Continuing lack of availability for decent stock, especially recent models with spec
  • Current owners of a unit choosing not to upgrade as regularly
  • Too many non-spec, older units available with very little retail capability

In spite of this, the market is in a positive position. Feedback suggests that values are holding and depreciation moving slowly. Overall, there is a feeling of optimism amongst the majority of contacts that the Glass’s editorial team has spoken with over the last three months.

Glass’s will be holding values for the July edition.

Is the diesel backlash beginning to bite in the used car arena?

Despite extensive negativity in the press towards diesel following the emissions scandal of 2015, and a sudden resurgence of interest in petrol, used diesel values have held up very well. Diesel cars remain a popular choice for consumers due to their excellent fuel economy and generally, they look good value for money. While new diesel car registrations collapse, in the wholesale market, the conversion rate of used diesels were on a par with petrol cars, indicating that demand amongst dealers and traders remained strong.

High on the political agenda in recent months (apart from Brexit) is climate change, with numerous public protests attempting to pressurise government and councils into finding ways to slow down and reverse pollution levels. Of course, the car (those with an internal combustion engine anyway) are in the crosshairs and especially diesels.

Today, diesels are being more penalised than ever before with higher benefit-in-kind tax rates for company car users, the introduction of the Ultra-low emission zone charge in London with more councils to follow. Additionally, some councils now charge more for diesel cars to have parking permits in urban areas. This makes the economic reason to own a diesel car less compelling for the used buyer and it may be starting to show in the wholesale market too.

The following chart shows the first time conversion rate of petrol and diesel cars at auction. It clearly demonstrates strong diesel performance in line with petrol cars until the end of the third quarter of 2018. Since then, diesel appears to have underperformed with the gap widening.

First time conversion percentage all ages graph April 2018-2019

Drilling down further into the data to focus on cars between 2.5 and 4.5 years of age, an age group where the bulk of younger diesel cars sit and encompasses cars from the leasing industry, the chart below shows diesel dropping from best performing to worst performing fuel type in this age group in the last 6 months.

1st time conversion % fuel split graph (fleet profile)

It is possible that the used market is beginning to catch up with the new car market in the rejection of diesel as the declining economic benefit and growing unpopularity of the fuel type rises. Alternatively, the wholesale market may be resetting itself where an increased supply of diesel is outstripping demand. It is worth remembering three years ago, the new car market registered a record amount of new cars, it is logical that more would end up in wholesale channels in this period. It will be interesting to see how this dynamic develops over the next few months.

MOT failures reach 1.5m in 12 months

Nearly 750,000 cars failed their MOT due to emissions defects in the six months following revisions to MOT rules in May 2018. This trend suggests the failure rate is set to reach 1.5 million for the full year doubling the amount of emissions related failures.

The recent changes to the MOT are the most comprehensive changes to the test targeting air quality. Industry experts at Glass’s expect these changes to take more diesel cars and vans beyond economical repair. Jonathan Brown, celebrating 30 years as a Car Editor at Glass’s said, “The latest revision in MOT rules is not the biggest change since the MOT began back in 1960 when the test only affected cars over 10 years of age. However, these changes that aim to improve air quality, will impact older diesels significantly with failure rates likely to increase.”

Specifically, the following changes are having an effect:

  • Stricter limits for emissions from diesel cars fitted with diesel particulate filters (DPF)
  • Evidence that a DPF has been tampered with will result in a failure
  • If smoke of any colour can be seen coming from the exhaust of a car fitted with a DPF, it will fail

Under the new legislation, owners can drive vehicles away from MOT stations that have a major defect as long as the MOT is still valid and the car is roadworthy. This is on the proviso of carrying out repairs immediately. However, owners cannot drive cars with dangerous faults until the problem is fixed. Examples of dangerous faults include missing brake discs, dangerous wheels or leaking hydraulic fluid that affects brake functionality.

Today, diesel vans are four and a half times more likely to fail the new emission element of the MOT. With demand for local deliveries increasing with the rise of internet shopping, there are self-employed drivers with older, higher mileage diesel vans suffering from a lack of maintenance, either due to time or budget constraints. These vans will become the MOT failures of tomorrow.

The MOT changes are having a noticeable impact on dealer buying habits. A vehicle offered at auction, with a long MOT compared to a similar model with little or no MOT affects price considerably, especially as the vehicle age increases.  With ever-tighter regulations, these effects will continue to have negative influence on values on these older vehicles.

June’s Used Van Hero

For those wanting reliability and economy

The Vauxhall Vivaro Sportive 2900 1.6CDTi 125PS s/s E6 L2H1 Doublecab van has been named as Glass’s Used Van Hero for June.

Each month, Glass’s Commercial Vehicle editors hold a meeting to name the current Used Van Hero in the UK market – the model they believe offers versatility, economy and outstanding value for money.

Andy Picton, Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor: “Strong economical engines and two rows of seats, together with a good size payload area are attractive benefits”.

Andy added that, “Sportive models in colour fitted with plenty of extras are seen as good value for money compared to more expensive competitors”

WHY?

The Vivaro has always had a good following in the UK. Built in Luton, there are four economical 1.6CDTi turbo-diesel engines to choose from generating 95bhp, 115bhp, 125bhp or 145bhp. Two body lengths are also available with body choices of panel van, crewcab van, 9-seat minibus and a platform cab for aftermarket conversions. The cabin is comfortable and well laid out, with plenty of storage and adjustable driver’s seat. Standard security features include deadlocks and immobiliser. The Doublecab van opens the Vivaro to a new audience regularly used by the family or a crew of workers.

WHEN WAS IT ON SALE?

The forerunner to the Vivaro, the Vauxhall Arena launched in the UK in 1997. The second-generation X83 model launched in 2001 and was a joint venture with sister products the Renault Trafic and Nissan Primastar with crew vans launching in 2005. Various engine changes and minor facelifts took place until the replacement arrived in 2014. The current third generation X82 model added the Fiat Talento to the partnership and is still in production. Following the purchase of Vauxhall by PSA, the replacement for the current Vivaro will be via a PSA donor vehicle, the Citroen Dispatch.

WHAT’S GOOD?

Frugal diesel engines, good handling, a spacious load area coupled to a large dealer network have helped Vauxhall establish the Vivaro as a popular new and used van. The timing chain requires no servicing work, whilst service intervals are set at competitive two years or 25,000 miles, whichever is sooner. The Doublecab benefits from a glazed plastic bulkhead fitted with a hinged flap at the base to allow for extra-long lengths to be stored under the rear passenger seats.

WHAT’S BAD?

The current Vivaro is behind the competition concerning safety features. Whilst the van also misses the more powerful engines available from competitors in this sector and no automatic gearbox is available.

IDEAL BUY?

Vauxhall Vivaro Sportive 2900 1.6 CDTI 125ps s/s E6 L2H1 Doublecab van on a 17/17 plate with 47k on the clock.

Glass Retail £15,550 Trade £13,075

Touring Caravan Market Update July 2019

Market Overview

Summer has arrived, following a mild and dry spring; it is starting on a cool and wet note. However, it is early days with the likelihood of some nice weather to come. The political backdrop continues to be a distraction to customers with the delay to Brexit, an imminent change of prime minister and the chance of a general election.

New Market

During the last quarter, dealer feedback suggests order intake continues to be behind last year. One major challenge for the market is the reduction of younger families buying new units. Tourers are now much more expensive: only ten years ago, a highly specified unit would cost around £20,000 with entry-level examples from as little as £10,400.  However, £20,000 is the average price today, with models retailing up to £35,000. Consequently, this is pricing many families out of the new tourer market, with those who retain interest in caravans looking towards a used van instead.  

Another issue is the towing law, affecting those who passed their driving tests on or after 1st January 1997. There is concern about a lack of understanding among potential customers with what the law actually means. Some people believe you cannot tow anything unless drivers take an additional test. However, this is not the case and it is essential to understand the rules and regulations.

If you passed your driving test on or after 1st January 1997, drivers can

  • drive a car or van up to 3500kg maximum authorised mass (MAM) whilst towing a trailer up to 750kg MAM
  • tow a trailer over 750kg MAM as long as the combined MAM of the trailer and towing vehicle is no more than 3500kg

If drivers want to exceed these limits, they need to take a trailer-towing test.

Whilst unsold 2018 models are now clearing from forecourts, availability of 2019 models is still high. This is at a time when manufacturers are increasing pressure on dealers to discount and reduce profit margins on 2019 stock to make way for 2020 production. Interestingly, some dealers are reporting that manufacturers are already offering discounts on 2020 stock.

Market Statistics

According to latest figures released by the National Caravan Council (NCC), production was down 15% between January and April 2019 for UK units. Factory invoiced sales also saw a decline of 18.4% in the same period.

Touring caravan home production graph April 2019 vs 2018
Touring caravan factory invoiced sales July 2019

Key Points

  • Demand for two, five and six berths was lower than last year
  • Four berths and twin axles faired strongest
  • 8 foot wide vans are still selling but a number are purchased to site, rather than tour now
  • Margin retention is similar or weaker compared to the same period in 2018
  • Customer finance penetration is broadly similar, with the majority of take up still 10-year HP deals

Used Market

The news was more positive with dealer feedback suggesting sales during the last quarter were ahead of the same period last year. With economic uncertainty reducing consumer confidence and increasing new prices, more customers are looking at the used market as a more affordable choice.

Key Points

  • Demand for two berths fared better than new, reported to be broadly in line with last year
  • Demand for all other berths including twin axles was also broadly in line with the same period in 2018
  • Transverse island beds remain the preferred choice
  • Twin single beds have been less popular recently
  • Stock availability thought to be similar to last year

Summary

Sales of new tourers in 2019 are likely to finish behind 2018, which in turn was not as good as 2016 and 2017. Although a lull in the market is common following a few strong years, the political backdrop has no doubt intensified this further, particularly during recent months.

In contrast, the used market has performed more strongly. However, moving forward late used vans could suffer due to heavily discounted unsold 2019 models as the season ends.

July Edition

For this edition, taking into account the time of year and the market place, values have been reduced across the board, except where trade feedback or evidence from the market place has indicated further adjustments where necessary.