Article Type: Insight

Motorcycle Market Round Up April 2020

Motorcycle registrations in January and February recorded growth over last year, suggesting the possibility of a positive year for 2020. Throughout this period, the threat of COVID-19 was present with many countries already going into lockdown. The full impact did not hit the UK until March 23 when Boris Johnson announced the lockdown, although the government had already encouraged social distancing.

Unfortunately, it came as no surprise that the official Motorcycle Industry Association (MCIA) March registrations were 22% behind last year, with all style categories suffering a decline. Paul McDonald, Glass’s Leisure Vehicles Editor said, “After tentative signs that 2020 could be a stronger year for the industry, the spread of COVID-19 put pay to that during March. At the time of writing, the government has just extended the lockdown for a minimum of three weeks with no confirmation yet of an exit strategy”.

Prior to the lockdown on the 23rd, the dealer view of March was that demand was behind last year. Whilst some dealers enjoyed a reasonable start to the month, most agreed that with the growing uncertainty sales had gone quiet with some customers cancelling orders.

Hot YTD in March

  • Honda PCX125 retains the top spot
  • Yamaha NMax was runner up
  • BMW R1250 GS performs strongly
  • Royal Enfield value for money Interceptor 650 remains buoyant

What can the industry expect moving forward?

The world is experiencing unprecedented times, so it is impossible to accurately predict what this means for the industry in the near future.  What is likely is that uncertainty will hinder consumer confidence for the rest of the year. At this stage, Glass’s view is that the industry will not grow this year.

Used Sales

Following good used sales numbers in February, dealer expectation for March to produce strong trading conditions was high.  Speaking to dealers in the lead up to the March 23when showrooms closed, most held the view that March started with buoyant sales up to the 21st, although a few dealers had already experienced disruption to normal sales activities.

Top Selling Models

Many dealers reported a broad range of machines selling well, providing correct price and condition. The first shoots of increasing spring demand encouraged certain models to sell even those that had hung around through the winter.

  • Ducati Multistrada
  • Yamaha MT range
  • Kawasaki Z900RS
  • Triumph Bonneville

Stock

Stock availability was reported to be broadly in line with last year. Difficulties finding quality machines remain, compounded by fewer registrations in March, resulting in fewer part exchanges. However, in view of the current situation, most dealers will be sourcing less stock at the moment.

Sales Environment

When speaking to dealers in mid-March, there was understandably a degree of uncertainty regarding sales performance moving forward. As with the new market, it is impossible to forecast when sales and demand are likely to show signs of recovery. However, it is certain that the next few months are going to be tough with a good chance the used market will also be affected for much of this year and into 2021.

In May’s edition of Glass’s data, the 2069 plates have been added.  After careful consideration taking into account the current situation, the majority of values have been reduced slightly except where trade feedback or evidence from the market place suggests further adjustments where necessary.

Motorcaravan Market Update April 2020

Figures released by the National Caravan Council (NCC) for the January 2020 show the moving-annual-total for motorhome registrations was up 5%, at 15,362 units.

The Caravan, Camping & Motorhome show at the NEC in February feels like a long time ago. Since then, Covid-19 has been the main focal point for the world and it looks set to grind most industries to a halt. Amongst everything that is happening now, it is easy to forget that in February, there was a refreshing feeling going into the NEC show.

Optimism was in the air, the market was ready to kick on after the cloud of Brexit and political uncertainty that loomed large was starting to vanish. Numerous dealers told Glass’s that January had been a very strong month for them in terms of sales.

The Manchester and Glasgow shows provided encouraging results too. It was logical to link the buoyancy in the market to the evolving political situation. There was hope that improving market confidence could run through into spring and early summer.

The Caravan, Camping & Motorhome Show 2020

Due to a lack of confidence in the market, dealers almost halved their factory orders for 2020, unsurprisingly; manufacturers were keen for a good NEC show. Unfortunately, it was frustrating for many manufacturers and dealers not to see the ‘post-election boom’ carry through into the NEC show, much to everyone’s surprise.

At the NEC show, manufacturers and dealers experienced varying degrees of success, most reporting sales below targets. Dealer comments advocate a lack of ‘buying’ customers attending the show as the underlining reason for the lack of success with the majority of visitors browsing product ranges.

Overall attendance was down by 2,006 visitors compared to 2019. The third year in a row the attendance has dropped coinciding with difficulties faced in the new market.

Taken in isolation, these results would hamper the 2021 season from growing. Manufacturers could easily offload unsold stock into the market with even higher discounts further distorting the market and causing a domino effect on used stock values of all ages.

Motorhome Customers

Motorhome customers are constantly looking for value and how best to invest their budget. This is proving difficult when pricing for the majority of mid-range models is between £60-70k. The result of the continual price increases is that many NEC exhibitors are selling higher numbers of lower priced entry-level vehicles. These sales are usually at lower margins compared to premium-level model ranges.

The Motorhome Market

The Glass’s team receive persistent feedback that cost new prices are already high and annual increases are continuing to deter customers from buying new vehicles. This is a continuing theme within the industry with many stakeholders voicing ongoing concern.

On top of this, there is a growing belief that the market has simply peaked. In 2015 and 2016, the market experienced growth with increasing sales volumes. Over the last two years, sales have been harder to come by, despite high discount levels. The discounting has been essential to help dealers reduce stock levels; however, it is causing significant competition between dealers as they continually undercut each other when setting forecourt prices.

The overproduction of stock also continues to be damaging for the market. Although numbers of unsold 2018 and 2019 stock continue to reduce, there are still units available. There was some hope among dealers carrying unsold stock that VED increases would attract customers to units unaffected by the new regulations, however, so far consumers appear to have ignored this potential cost save.

Vehicle Excise Duty (VED)

New regulations reclassifying motorhomes as cars instead of commercial vehicles for VED purposes came into effect September 1st 2019. This means the basis for VED rates for motorhomes are CO2 emissions sending the majority of motorhomes straight into the highest VED band causing the VED to increase from £265 to £2,135 for the first year for the most polluting vehicles, an increase of 705%. This does decrease for subsequent years, to £145 per year for vehicles under £40k and to £465 for vehicles above £40k.

Customers currently see all price increases as barriers to entering the motorhome market. The NCC and their members continue to voice concern on how the VED changes are affecting the industry expressing concern directly to the government with a commons briefing paper published September 6th 2019 showing why these changes would affect the market.

After much hard work, the NCC and their members managed to get the rise in VED reversed through parliament support, wining an immediate U-turn in Rishi Sunak’s first Budget.

Motorhome used market

Feedback we have received suggests the used market continues to be buoyant with an increase in transactions reported by dealers. Values remain strong, despite heavy discounting of new stock with prices laddering down into older model’s values. From a demand perspective, dealers continue to inform Glass’s that there are no trends in terms of specific vehicle layouts or models.

For quick stock turning, the key for dealers in the used market is to source quality units for competitive prices with minimal faults. This reflects the current lack of available used stock sources for dealers.

Motorhome: challenges ahead

Even before the arrival of Covid-19 the new motorhome market had sales challenges forecast for the season. The pandemic will also be unwelcome to the used market, a market usually only slowed down by a lack of quality stock availability. The forced closure of businesses across the UK will severely disrupt this market. Sales will halt, adding concern when so much new stock remains unsold.

There could be an argument that holidaymakers will want stay at home this summer. However, with the uncertainty of travel restrictions, even in the UK, today the summer holidays seem a distant dream. With the pandemic not only slowing retail demand, but also potentially affecting customer purchase power, the mid-term future for this market remains uncertain.

Holiday Home Market Update April 2020

Holiday Home Editorial – April 2020

Figures released by the National Caravan Council (NCC) show the January 2020 moving-annual-total for holiday homes production was down 4.7%, at 20,791 units.

Traditionally at this time of the year, business within the holiday home market increases. The market expects to experience a higher volume of demand and sales, especially after the decent summers experienced in recent seasons and the rise in the ‘staycation holiday’. However, the coronavirus (COVID – 19) looms large, affecting everyday life. The recently announced Government lockdown, leading to the closure of holiday and touring parks will be devastating for all involved with the industry. Hopefully this action will have the desired impact on the spread of the disease and businesses can open again quickly.

The UK New Holiday Home Market

Before the arrival of COVID-19, demand and sales of new holiday homes remained at the same slow pace it experienced at the beginning of the season. Feedback Glass’s received suggests the market experienced a healthy pick up in sales in January. Although, the market usually sees an annual spike in January, the increase in sales was most likely due to the resolution of political and economic uncertainty, following the general election.

How the Brexit process has affected the market, and how the continuing EU trade negotiations will impact us all once the UK leaves has been a regular conversation for over three years. The general consensus it that is has affected holiday home sales by denting consumer’s confidence to buy, whilst the economy has been so uncertain. A positive view is that it has increased stay at home holidays with research conducted by Barclays showing 31% of people surveyed were planning to holiday domestically.

The ‘post-election boost’ did not carry through into February, which was a surprise among many, who believed it could increase business into spring. According to feedback, sales became ‘hard work’ again reverting to similar numbers achieved before the New Year.

Caravan, Camping & Motorhome Show

Glass’s editors attended the Caravan, Camping & Motorhome show at the NEC, Birmingham in February. The majority of feedback received was that sales were ‘OK’. The market’s inconsistency is making it difficult for parks to predict market movements. This is causing parks to order with more caution, which in turn is impacting manufacturers.

The overproduction of stock over the past two years remains a hindrance to the market. Large volumes are still for sale at highly discounted prices. This is distorting market values. Manufacturers have reacted to this by reducing production, as seen in the NCC statistics. There is confidence that one more year of lower production will help even the stock issues out.

Despite concerns of rising cost new prices each year, larger models, especially 14ft+ have been selling well. Consumers continue to be attracted to premium models in the market, and feel, most importantly, that they are obtaining value for money. Glass’s regularly receive feedback that part-exchange is low, however the improvements to the standard of holiday homes is giving owners fewer reasons to upgrade to a new holiday home.

At the other end of the market, sales of entry-level model ranges are stuttering. Attracting younger customers with families to the market is a growing problem. The budget model ranges that could create an attractive proposition are still seen as unaffordable. Unfortunately, there is no real solution in sight to reignite demand from these younger customers.

The UK Used Holiday Home Market

According to feedback Glass’s receives, used market sales and demand continues to be buoyant. Much like the new market, January produced strong results but quietened down in February with fewer enquiries received.

Despite continued heavy discounting on new models, consumers are still attracted to used units. Even with the high discounts in place, consumers still see the used market as offering much higher value compared to new models as cost new prices have been continually rising. Many industry insiders believe it is these increases that continue to contribute to the new market’s difficulties.

UK Immigration

In February, the government launched a new immigration policy, which will come into force post-Brexit. There are concerns it could potentially severely damage a huge sector of the holiday home market. The new regulations will prevent ‘low skilled workers’ from gaining a visa.

Traditionally, UK farmers have sought overseas workers for piece work. Whilst many holiday home dealers have provided accommodation for the transient workforce. This has been an integral part of these dealers’ businesses. It is unclear who will take the place of the overseas workers and what volume of accommodation will be required for the farming industry in the near future.

Covid-19

It is fair to say that we are experiencing unprecedented times. At the time of writing, we still do not know how long Covid-19 will affect our industries and everyday life. Of course, any amount of time is unwelcome but hopefully any disruption will be kept to a minimum. The Glass’s Editorial team will continue to report any changes in the market ensuring that you are up to date with the latest news.

Touring Caravan Market Update April 2020

The 2020 season is well underway with key holiday periods fast approaching. Although winter was very wet it was very mild but there was no repeat of the 2019 record temperatures. Creating some positives for consumer confidence in the market was the successful BREXIT in January.

However, today the main issue is the rapid spread of Coronavirus (COVID-19). The impact of this in the UK is already significant. Restaurants, pubs, theatres and cinemas are already closed. Today is the first day of a three week lock-down with the UK waking up to new curbs on life after Boris Johnson’s speech from number 10.

Touring caravans: new market

Feedback from dealers during the last quarter suggests order intake was similar to last year. Some traders hold the view that staycations will increase in popularity as individuals become more environmentally aware stimulating demand in the caravan market. Additionally, as motorhomes become more expensive, there is a possible emerging trend of motorhome owners returning to caravan ownership. There are also some negative concerns among consumers about the ban on internal combustion engines being brought forward to 2035 with question marks over electric vehicle towing capabilities and the detrimental impact on range.

Unsold 2019 models in the market are reportedly selling, and with the majority of dealers ordering less stock for 2020, this should limit the number of carry over models into 2021 should the market continue to follow its normal seasonal pattern.

During recent months, the industry hosted the Manchester caravan and motorcaravan show, which took place between the 16th and 19th January at Event City and then more recently the NEC caravan and motorcaravan show from the 18th to the 23rd February. According to the NCC (National Caravan Council), attendance figures were 2.2% down on last year at the NEC.  Although footfall was strong on certain days, the general consensus was that sales activity was mediocre.

Moving forward, there would typically be numerous local shows throughout the country. However, due to current circumstances, cancellation of many of these is likely.

Market Statistics January 2020 vs 2019

  • Production of units intended for UK distribution was 21.1% down.
  • Moving annual total [MAT] for UK distribution was 13.8% down.
  • Factory invoiced sales saw a downturn of 17.7%
  • Moving annual total [MAT] for factory invoiced sales was 17.1% down.
Touring caravan home production graph January 2020 vs 2019
Touring caravan factory invoiced sales graph January 2020 vs 2019

Key Points

  • Demand for all berths including twin axles – broadly in line with last year.
  • Some dealers have experienced an increase in demand for twin axles.
  • Island beds with centre washroom continue to be the main focus with 8-foot wide vans also attracting strong demand.
  • Majority of dealers are offering similar levels of discount as last year.
  • Margin retention is broadly the same as last year.

Used Market

Most dealers held the opinion that sales were broadly similar to last year with the majority of demand continuing to focus on transverse island beds. Some dealers have seen an increase in newcomers to the market this year which is good news.

Key Points

  • Demand for all berths including twin axles was broadly in line with last year.
  • Stock availability during the last quarter has been similar to last year.
  • Majority of dealers are satisfied with their stock levels, although some are running short due to fewer part exchanges.
  • Some traders are experiencing a stagnant market, similar to the new market.

Summary

At the end of 2019, the prospects for 2020 largely depended on the BREXIT outcome, with the potential for a stronger year if the UK exited the European Union. Whilst this happened, the spread of the Coronavirus has overtaken the BREXIT discussion with the serious consequences for the UK and the World. Despite potential positives for the industry, the future is more uncertain than ever as the world enters the unknown.

April Edition

For this edition, based on the current market, the majority of values have been held, except where trade feedback or evidence from the market indicates further adjustment where necessary.

Light Commercial Vehicles and the coronavirus pandemic

With the coronavirus (COVID-19) causing huge problems for the automotive industry, Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor, Andy Picton considers the implications for residual values in the Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) market.

New Market

With the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) already expecting the new LCV market to contract 4.8% in 2020 with a further 1.8% decline in 2021, a sustained weakened economy, whether globally or nationally, will hit predictions harder and could potentially lead to a recession.

Production at plants across Europe has halted as a mixture of parts shortages, staff welfare and confirmed cases of COVID-19 have combined to cripple manufacturing in the automotive industry.

The escalating pandemic is likely to result in a large drop in consumer confidence and spending, especially for big ticket items such as new and used light commercial vehicles. China recorded a 79% fall of new car sales in February, as shoppers stayed at home and dealerships closed their doors.

Ordinarily, new vehicle demand suffers more than the used market when the economy is under pressure. However, these are unprecedented times, with the coronavirus likely to impact new vehicle supply in other ways. As plants close and production lines come to a halt, there will be the obvious lack of available stock. At this stage, nobody knows how long the production lines will be at a standstill, whether it be weeks or even months. Inevitably, this will lead to longer lead times.

A shortage of new stock may result in list price increases, discounts withdrawn and tactical registrations reduced. Whilst a shortage of spare parts could hamper vital logistics moving medicines, food, fuels and equipment whilst also potentially affecting the work of the emergency services.

Today, there is new stock available in the UK, with rental companies receiving high enquiry volumes from cleaning companies, couriers and pharmacies as companies seek alternative means of helping the UK through the crisis. Additional vehicles will also be required as supermarkets increase the number of home deliveries.

On the downside, fleet registrations are likely to reduce as companies cut or reduce investments due to the uncertainty. This will result in a drop in vehicles entering the used market in 2-3 years.

Used Market

With supply and demand heavily driving performance, any extra vehicles entering the market as companies lay off staff is likely to upset the equilibrium.

Due to ‘self-isolation’ and ‘social distancing’ orders, auction houses have had to close until further notice, leaving the trade in the difficult position of not being able to buy new or sell their existing stock. With the possibility of a small exception of vehicles that may be allowed to be sold for home shopping or pharmaceutical deliveries, there are vehicles up and down the country not generating revenue.

For all small businesses, a prolonged stop in trade will result in huge cash flow problems. When the market reopens, replacing their existing fleet will certainly not be high on their list of priorities. Sales of used vehicles through retail outlets and websites would also be minimal, for similar reasons.

Rental companies will also come under pressure to de-fleet vehicles, returning them to OEMs if they can, as the pandemic dramatically affects most mobility industries.

Residual Values

In terms of residual values (RVs), any drop in the new vehicle supply, due to a recession for example, would normally lead to an increased demand and strengthening of RVs for late year used stock, especially those models subject to long lead times, such as chassis conversions or those with specialist equipment.

These types of vehicle could well be in demand again as the country readjusts its focus on keeping the country supplied with vital provisions.

Should rental companies also de-fleet, this will increase the supply of sub 12 month old vehicles. Finding buyers will be challenging. Any increase in the supply of late year stock in addition to the reduced demand for vehicles, will likely result in a decline in RVs.

With the UK in lockdown, buying a used van will not be a priority, or even an option, for most consumers right now. 

From recent research, we have already seen an 8,000 unit increase in the overall numbers of LCVs available in the used market since the first week of March. This does not bode well. As stock sits idle and the backlog of end of contract vehicles grows, any oversupply will lead to pressure on values.

The underlying resilience of the economy will be the key factor in how quickly the commercial vehicle industry and its values recover.

  • In the best case, there will be a short, sharp hit to the market, but the underlying resilience of the economy coupled to government stimulation will see a speedy recovery.
  • The medium case will see a short term decline, followed by a longer period of flat/slow recovery as consumer confidence and buying power is squeezed. The underlying economy struggles to recover, similar to the last financial crisis.
  • In the worst case, the economy could be severely damaged, with many European Countries requiring huge bailouts and the global economy taking many years to recover.

There is the likelihood that demand will decline, and with it, values in the short term. The CV team at Glass’s is currently predicting values to drop by more than the seasonal norm over the coming weeks. Our short-term forecasts for the coming months are also likely to fall however, our longer-term forecasts are likely to remain broadly unchanged.

When the light commercial vehicle industry does return to anywhere close to normality, we expect there to be a good level of pent-up demand, which coupled to the shortage of new LCVs, will be positive for prices of used stock.

We will continue to monitor our regular trade and retail data feeds, as well as our industry contacts for opinion over the coming weeks, to ensure our values remain as relevant as ever in these uncertain times.

LCV Used Marketplace update – March 2020

In the key plate-change month of March, the UK new light commercial vehicle (LCV) market fell 54.3%. Overall, 30,247 new vehicles hit UK roads in March, less than half of the 66,123 registered in March 2019, amid nationwide lockdown measures in response to the coronavirus emergency.

Demand was down across the board with most sectors experiencing double-digit declines. With the market a barometer for the wider economy, March’s registrations were the lowest for more than 20 years and stark evidence of a crisis of truly unprecedented proportions. Breaking the month down by sectors reveals registrations declined by 57.8% for Pickups, 64.0% for Vans under 2.0 tonnes, 40.4% for Vans between 2.0-2.5 tonnes and 56.0% for Vans between 2.5-3.5 tonnes. Year to date, total registrations are down 33.9% on the same point in 2019.

Top five LCV registrations

Top 5 LCV registrations in YTD 2020, March 2020 and March 2019

There is an expectation that demand will recover once we overcome these troubled times, however nobody knows how long this will take. Operators and their drivers are currently working flat out supporting the NHS and to keep the emergency services, pharmacies, supermarkets, foodbanks, charities and other crucial services operational. During this lockdown, everyone has become reliant on the commercial vehicle sector, with that reliance guaranteed to continue way beyond this crisis as the UK looks to rebuild its economy.

March Auction Market Overview: Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV)

Due to the coronavirus lockdown and the closure of all auction houses, March’s sold volumes unsurprisingly fell dramatically. Stock was plentiful and prices for the nicest vehicles was to Guide values during the first half of the month, but the staggered closure of physical sales and then on-line sales the following week had a devastating impact. By month end, there was a 42.6% month on month decline and a 24.9% year on year drop in sold vehicles.

Of those LCVs that did sell, the average age in March was 74.6 months, 6.0 months older than twelve months ago, but 1.2 months younger than last month. Additionally, average first-time conversion rates over the last 12 months improved 4.9% to 83.3%.

Average vehicle mileage stands at 80,530 miles, a minor increase of 283 miles on February and 243 miles on March 2019. Despite the unprecedented difficulties, March’s average sale price fell by only 5.6% against February and 5.9% on the same point last year.

Demand for Small Vans reduced during March, with their average sale price falling by £250 as well. Tidy examples of Transit Connect, Combo, Berlingo, Partner and Kangoo were all of interest during the month.

The Medium Van sector saw March sales dip by nearly 45% with average sale prices also down slightly. Interest for Transit Custom, Trafic, Vivaro, Transporter and to a lesser extent Vito was steady through the first half of the month, with crew vans again catching the eye.

The Large Van sector saw March sales dip by over 40% with average sale prices down nearly 4%. Across this sector, there was interest in anything straight, tidy or sensibly priced. Average mileage for stock sold fell over 2,200 miles to just below 95,000 miles in March.

The 4×4 Pickup sector saw sales decline by over 45% in March, but average prices were up by over £150. Higher specification models drove this sector, leading to a near 4.0% improvement in first time conversion rates. Older examples continued to attract buyers when priced in line with age, condition and mileage.

Motorcycle market round up – March 2020

According to the Motorcycle Industry Association (MCIA), February registrations were 2.8% ahead of last year.  In view of January and February 2019 also recording growth over the previous year, this is good news. However, experts at Glass’s Guide continue to advise caution. Whilst the UK successfully exited the European Union without further delay at the end of January, the Coronavirus has swept across the world, including the UK and this is likely to have ramifications on the Global Economy. Paul McDonald, Glass’s Leisure Vehicles Editor said, “Whilst we have to take positives from the results, the true test will be the analysis of March sales, which will be affected by the Coronavirus and the current uncertainty around how the next few months will pan out”.

The dealer view of February was that demand was in line with last year and some dealers were cautiously optimistic that 2020 would be a stronger year, with tentative signs of improved consumer spending confidence. However, the ever-changing coronavirus landscape will dampen this optimism.

February 2020 Highlights

  • Four out of nine categories recorded growth
  • Following a period of growth, mopeds suffered a decline in February
  • Adventure Sport and Naked markets both gave a strong performance
  • Sports Tourers enjoyed the most significant increase, albeit these are sold in few numbers

Hot YTD in February

  • Honda PCX 125 retains its lead
  • Honda NSC 110 was runner up
  • BMW R1250 GS continues its success
  • Honda CRF1100 Africa Twin enters the top ten

What can the industry expect moving forward?

In view of the current situation with the Coronavirus, the UK once again faces some very uncertain times. However, considering riding is isolating, this may affect the industry less than other industries. Additionally, with the Government advising the public to avoid social gatherings, this could encourage riders to get out on their bikes as an enjoyable alternative for social distancing. Despite this, renewed uncertainty could undo any newfound confidence with consumer spending, hindering sales over the coming months. At this stage, the Glass’s view remains that the industry should look towards the second half of 2020 for any sustained growth.

Used Sales

Demand for used motorcycles in February was stronger than last year according to recent feedback, with a few dealers reporting a post BREXIT ‘boom’. This is without doubt good news for the industry, although March will likely give a stronger indication to where the market is heading, as consumers look towards purchasing machines for the upcoming season whilst benefitting from the new 2020 plate. However, a lack of young riders entering the market, resulting from complex and costly testing, coupled with high insurance premiums remains a bugbear. As a result, the average age of rider continues to increase and now stands at 56 years.

Top Sellers

Several dealers report strong demand across a wide variety of ranges, however, adventure style machines and modern classics in particular are buoyant, with quality 125cc machines also strong.

  • Honda Africa Twin
  • Triumph Bonneville
  • Honda PCX125
  • Yamaha MT-125

In view of the average riding age, more consumers are looking for comfort and this is where adventure and naked machines excel, due to their upright riding positions.  As a result, supersports are becoming increasingly niche, with some purchased for track use rather than on road.

Stock

The majority of dealers reported stock availability to be broadly in line with last year and although finding quality stock remains a challenge for some, new part exchanges generated from March’s plate change will help replenish dealer forecourts and most dealers hold the view their stock levels are where they should be.

Sales Environment

Frost and snow was largely absent during February, but with it being the wettest on record, riding conditions were poor.  March has started on a slightly drier note but the threat of more rain continues. Dealers are looking forward to spring, with clocks moving forward at the end of March improving riding conditions. The majority view was that sales activity will increase during the next month. However, with the Coronavirus on the increase, this could potentially have ramifications on the market. After careful consideration and market analysis, the majority of Glass’s values have been held for the April data except where trade feedback or evidence from the market place suggests further adjustments where necessary.

LCV Used Marketplace update – February 2020

Enjoying a positive start to the year, January’s new LCV market was up 5.9% on the same point in January 2019. Overall, 23,557 new vehicles hit UK roads, with only Pickups and Vans between 2.5t – 3.5t recording a fall in registrations.

Breaking the month down by sectors reveals growth of 26.3% and 41.7% for Vans under 2.0 tonnes and Vans between 2.0-2.5 tonnes, whilst registrations for Pickups fell 9.7% and Vans between 2.5-3.5 tonnes declined by just 0.9%.

Top five LCV registrations

Top 5 LCV registrations for YTD 2020, January 2020 and January 2019

Combined with increasing demand for alternatively fuelled commercial vehicles, January’s growth is good news for the commercial vehicle sector. Pent-up demand for the latest WLTP compliant Euro 6d stock is resulting in more operators addressing the issues of climate change and air quality, by switching to cleaner vehicles to support their businesses.

January Auction Market Overview: Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV)

The New Year has seen the wholesale market start strongly, with sales up 95% on the typically quiet month of December and 0.4% up on January 2019. Driven by increased volume in the marketplace, all sectors recorded increased sales over the previous month.

LCV sales in January are on average 12.8 months older than twelve months ago, at 75.4 months but 1.3 months younger than last month. Additionally, average first-time conversion rates over the last 12 months improved 7.4% to 83.0%.

Average vehicle mileage stands at 81,718 miles, an increase of nearly 4,300 miles on December and 2,150 miles on January 2019. With the increase in mileage and vehicle age, it was no surprise to see the average sale price for the month fall. January’s average sale price was £150 lower than December and over £500 lower than at the same point last year.

Demand for Small Vans saw sales double in this sector during January, with the average sale price up by £25 on December. Tidy examples of Berlingo, Transit Connect, Combo, Doblo and Corsavan have all held their value during the month, as have utility versions of Caddy.

The popular Medium Van sector saw sales increase by over 45%, but returned a £60 reduction in the average sales price. Good levels of demand remain for Transit Custom, Trafic, Vivaro and Transporter when mileage and condition are appropriate for the vehicle age. The Dispatch, Expert and Proace have also proved popular, as has utility versions of Primastar. It was another strong month for crew vans, with the best continuing to sell well.

Sold volumes of Large Vans increased by nearly 60% in January, however, average sales prices reduced by £100. Across this sector, demand is for anything straight and tidy or sensibly priced. The latest shape Transit and Sprinter are proving particularly popular together with later plate Relay, Boxer and Ducato and Iveco Daily.

Sales of 4×4 Pickups increased by nearly 45% in January, with average prices increasing by £100. Higher specification models with automatic gearboxes fared best, with the Ranger Wildtrak, Hilux Invincible, L200 Barbarian and Navara Tekna all attracting buyers. Older examples of D-Max, Ranger, Navara, Hilux and L200 continued to attract buyers working to tighter budgets. The Fullback still struggles to gain acceptance, whilst rare sightings of the 2.3-litre X-Class have underperformed.

February’s Used Van Hero 2020

Each month, Glass’s Commercial Vehicle editors hold a meeting to name the current Used Van Hero in the UK market – the model they believe offers the highest level of versatility, durability and outstanding value for money.

Andy Picton, Glass’s Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor recommends the FIAT Doblo Cargo as “a van covering all the essentials including great fuel economy, near class-leading payload and great handling.”

Andy added, “Following the launch in 2000, buyers recognise the Doblo van as an assured player in the Small Van Sector offering a wide choice of variants, frugal engines and payload solutions for fleets and sole traders alike”.

WHEN WAS IT ON SALE

Launched in 2000, the first generation Doblo received minor updates through its life cycle until the second generation went on sale in 2010. Powered by FIAT’s renowned Multijet II engine, the second generation also launched the Cargo Maxi length and a drop side called the ‘Work Up’. The second generation also became the donor vehicle for the Vauxhall Combo between 2011 and 2018.

When the Doblo received a mid-life facelift in 2015, the engine upgraded to FIAT’s EcoJet technology improving fuel economy further with the most frugal versions managing an official 68.9mpg under the NEDC cycle. The facelift also incorporated standardised Bluetooth, aux in and USB sockets.

WHY

The FIAT Doblo Cargo range

  • Two body lengths, Standard and Maxi
  • Maxi body includes
    • 5-seat Crew Van
    • Maxi XL high roof
    • Maxi ‘Work Up’ drop side
    • Platform cab for conversions
  • Four trim levels
    • Cargo
    • SX
    • Tecnico
    • Sportivo
  • Engine line up
    • 1.3JTD 80bhp or 95bhp
    • 1.6JTD 105bhp or 120bhp

Following the 2015 front-end facelift, Euro 6 compliant power units launched in 2016, followed by WLTP Euro 6d rated engines in 2019. Of the original trim levels of Standard and SX, it is the SX that arguably gives the best value for money, especially when paired to the 1.6JTD 105bhp MultiJet II start and stop engine. In addition to the Standard specification, the SX came with height adjustable driver’s seat, soundproofed bulkhead, electric mirrors, load area PVC lining, body coloured electric mirrors, passenger seat storage and fog lights.

WHAT’S GOOD?

  • Excellent mix of variants
  • Economical manual engines
  • Payloads up with the best in this sector
  • Comfortable, but hard-wearing cabin
  • Decent level of standard specification
  • 3-year/unlimited mile warranty

WHAT’S BAD?

  • Lacks the latest safety features newer vehicles in this sector have
  • Outdated cabin equipment and design
  • No automatic gearbox option

IDEAL BUY?

FIAT Doblo Cargo SX 1.6JTD MultiJet II 105bhp van

Registration Plate: 2016/66

Mileage: 41,000 miles

Glass’s Retail £5,925 Excl VAT

Glass’s Trade £4,750 Excl VAT

Motorcaravan Market Update January 2020

New Market Activity

Figures released by the National Caravan Council (NCC) show the volume of motorcaravans registered between January and September this year was up 4.6% compared to 2018, at 12,988 units.

It seems like a long time has passed since the Glass’s editorial team attended various manufacturer product launches for the 2020 season. Most of the viewing took place in warm weather, with fewer hindrances for the market to face than it does today. One thing that has remained consistent since then is caution.

Despite some incisive changes by manufacturers to their products, orders from dealers continue to be low. Large swathes of unsold stock from the 2018 and 2019 season continues to hamper the market, and this is something dealers wanted to avoid this year. Despite high discounting throughout the year, achieving sales was ‘tough’ for the majority. This trend seems to have continued further into the 2020 season.

As the National Motorhome and Caravan Show at the NEC, Birmingham in October approached, there seemed to be a lot of negativity amongst many in the market. However, feedback received, suggested sales results were on target with what most manufacturers and dealers had set. Although this tended to be down on the previous year. As expected, no post-show pickup in sales followed. This is probably due to the biggest factor of the season so far – the general election.

Another election has been on the cards for some time, so it was no surprise when Boris Johnson called one on the 28th October, just two weeks after the Motorhome and Caravan show ended. Traditionally, general elections slow the market down, and this year seems to be no different.

Not only has the market had to contend with something as influencing as a general election, it is also in the early stages of WLTP. Since September 1st 2019, motorcaravans are treated as cars instead of commercial vehicles for taxation purposes. The vehicle excise duty (VED) rates for cars are based on CO2 outputs and motorhomes will sit in the very upper band. This means that the (VED) will increase from £265 to £2,135, an increase of 705%. Any price increase is negative, but how has this affected the market so far?

Most feedback we have received indicates that it has made very little difference in terms of demand and sales. We have had reports of a few order cancellations by customers due to concerns about VED increases, but the majority seem to have accepted it.

Some dealers actually see the VED increase as a positive in the short term, and something that will improve their sales numbers. Most still hold unsold new stock in varying numbers from the last two years. These units tend to be competitively priced in order to move them on, and have the added bonus of not falling under the WLTP regulations. This excludes them from the VED price increase. Dealers believe that customers will be more attracted to an unused model from 2018 or 2019 compared to a new 2020 model that will include a significant price increase. This may be the case but profit margins on this discounted and overage stock is unlikely to be favourable. That said, it would improve dealer cash flow.

 ‘Batten down the hatches or big boom?’ is how one contact of ours described the next few months. It is completely plausible that the election result, with Brexit entangled in it will make no difference to a market that is already suffering from low demand and low sales numbers. Some predict there is even the possibility of there being a new stock shortage for the 2021 season, if manufacturer order intake does not improve. Dealers will not want to commit to ordering any more units until the market plays out further, but manufacturers will currently be in the phase of ordering their cabs for the production of their 2021 units. Much like dealers being coy with their ordering, manufacturers might have to be the same when ordering their cabs and materials.

Or else, a big sales ‘boom’ could arrive just in time for the Motorhome and Caravan show at the NEC, Birmingham in February. A newly elected government and Brexit resolution on 31st January could quell the low consumer confidence, and give customers the confidence to make their purchases as we head into Easter and the warmer months.

Used Market Activity

Trying to gauge what direction the new market is heading in is tricky. It is consistent at being inconsistent, whereas the used market is the opposite. The used market has followed the same pattern for years now –

  • Autumn – Demand and sales are at their strongest following on from the summer
  • Winter – Demand and sales remain strong but show signs of slowing
  • Spring – Decent Stock availability is low and prices have inflated affecting sales
  • Summer – The holiday period has arrived

This year seems to be no different.

The feedback we have received is that the market is ‘strong’. Dealers remark that the turnaround from acquiring a unit to its sale is very fast, and constant replenishment of stock is key. Feedback suggests that dealers have no issue with carrying as much stock as possible into the New Year. Dealers are having to pay strong money for stock and are even at times buying before seeing a unit. This comes at the risk of the vehicle not being fit for purpose with damp or rot.

A scenario that may ease low stock availability could be in the form of more late-used stock becoming available. The years prior to 2018 were very buoyant for the new market, and sales figures were strong across the board. It could be that the used market starts to see an influx of units from this period resurface. Owners may look to change now, especially as their units have not depreciated greatly in that time and would carry a strong value for part-exchange.

Customer buying trends have evolved as the digital age has advanced. This has caused consumers to become even more price conscious. Online selling platforms give a wider audience the ability to price compare in more detail. This has seen consumers ask for part-exchange prices that verge on retail prices. Used price brackets are sensitive, the £20-30k price bracket is the most popular but once values go over that, customers will tend to start looking at getting value for money from discounted new model prices. The below £20k price bracket is also very popular, but units of that value tend to be older which carries the condition risks.

In the January edition of Glass’s Caravan data, motorcaravan values have reduced by up to 2.5%. We have also added the 1868 registration plate to the data. For subscribers of the Glass’s caravan app, please ensure that you regularly update the current editions to receive the latest datasets.

Holiday Home Market Update January 2020

Figures released by the National Caravan Council (NCC) show the volume of holiday homes produced between January and September this year was down 8.9% compared to 2018, at 15,576 units.

According to feedback we have received, the new market appears to have stabilised since the autumn. The market was going through a period of being ‘topsy turvy’. This had been due to high levels of overproduction during the 2018 and 2019 seasons, which had completely outweighed demand. This carried on into the start of the new 2020 season, and resulted in the HEMRCA shows at The Lawns and Beaulieu having mixed results in terms of orders. Despite there still being large volumes of unsold stock from that period, the market has steadied. Demand is growing slowly and sales are steadily improving. Should this trend continue, the market looks set to improve on last year. Production continues to be reduced following on from mistakes made by larger manufacturers over the past few years. There is confidence from manufacturers that 2020 could be the only year required to steady the ship before increasing production again.

It could be better though. Park groups of all sizes have been cautious with their ordering for the 2020 season. Even though the number of UK residents opting for staycation holidays is growing rapidly each year. This figure looks set to grow again in 2020 with early fleet bookings already looking encouraging. There are plenty of parks that will be encouraged by the amount of sales they have done already, which will only increase as the warmer months approach.

Despite ground rent costs remaining expensive, sales continue to come in. Access to pension pots for some customers is a big factor in making owning an asset like a holiday home affordable. In addition, increased incentives on offer are attracting consumers, such as holiday parks covering the deposit of the unit; in return, the customer has to agree to allow the park to let the unit out for rental during the summer holidays. Other desirable incentives that have been included in deals are patios and hot tubs.

Political uncertainty has affected the market since the referendum result in 2016. It will be a relief to all that the Brexit deadlock has been broken with the conservatives gaining a majority in the general election. The UK is now set to withdraw from Europe on January 31st. Will finally leaving the EU benefit the market or not? Many will argue that Brexit has increased the number of people wanting to ‘staycation’ due to the uncertainties of holidaying abroad and its costs, and this would surely be the case should when we leave on January 31st. By officially leaving, tariffs will finally become clear on travel and may cause more people to decide on holidaying domestically.

One disappointing effect of Brexit is the reduction of migrants coming to the UK to work on farming/fruit picking. Housing workers in holiday homes has been lucrative for dealers and parks alike. In the years leading up to Brexit, the business was booming to the point where farm owners were upgrading to units double the size with spec to match. Since the referendum result, less workers are attracted to working in the UK and this particular market is dwindling.

Unlike the new market, the used market appears to have flat-lined. Feedback suggests that demand and sales remain almost exactly at the same levels as last year. Compared to the new market, the used market’s pricing is much more competitive, and offers consumers better value for money. This does not show any signs of stopping as cost new prices continue to rise year on year. During 2019, good quality stock has been available, which has certainly not been the case in the past. The main reason behind this are many parks are too full. This prevents them from not being able to take advantage of desirable stock becoming available, from other parks upgrading their stock.

A huge problem the used market continues to face is the amount of old stock that now attracts little or no demand. Dealers reveal anything up to 2004 is now surplus to any requirements, even for housing labourers. Of course, it is rare for any units of that age to carry any spec, which is essential now to any holiday home owner.

Values of holiday homes in the January edition of the Caravan data set have been reduced by a minimum of 2.5%.

Touring Caravan Market Update January 2020

The weather was kinder this year with a mild winter and spring and a notable absence of the ‘Beast from the East’.  Easter was later and coincided with some pleasant weather. Summer was more mixed but did have its fair share of heatwaves, one of which saw temperatures soar to record breaking levels in Cambridgeshire during July.

The main bugbear for the market in 2019 has been the ongoing political backdrop hindering consumer spending confidence. The UK failed to leave the European Union in March and October, which only intensified economic uncertainty.

There has been a high level of unsold 2019 stock in the dealer network carried into the new season, which has led to distress selling. To prevent this happening again, most dealers were more cautious when ordering 2020 model year units, and many are ordering in stages rather than everything at the beginning of the season. In turn, manufacturers have been more flexible towards dealer order placements.

The National Motorhome and Caravan show took place at the NEC in Birmingham between the 15th and 20th October. According to the National Caravan Council (NCC) 94,240 visitors attended which was down on last year when more than 96,000 attended. Feedback from manufacturers and dealers at the show was mixed with some reporting stronger sales than anticipated; whilst others held the view, it was quiet, as expected. Displays remained as impressive as ever with plenty to keep the trade and public interested.

Moving forward, there is the Caravan and Motorhome show at Manchester’s Event City, taking place from the 16th to 19th January and the Camping Caravan and Motorhome show from 18th to 23rd February at the NEC in Birmingham.

New Market

During the last quarter, dealer feedback suggested order intake was behind last year. Some dealers explained the season finished earlier than normal, with healthy demand until June/July, after which it went quiet. 8-foot wide vans continue to be strong sellers with increasing numbers purchased to permanently site. One dealer explained that 50% of their 8-foot sales are for siting.

There remains a high number of unsold 2019 vans in the market but they are selling and there is belief that this will be less of an issue at the end of the 2020 season, due to most dealers ordering fewer units earlier.

Market Statistics September 2019 vs 2018

  • Production of units intended for UK distribution was 8.7% down.
  • Moving annual total [MAT] for UK distribution was 13.2% down.
  • Factory invoiced sales saw a downturn of 12%.
  • Moving annual total [MAT] for factory sales was 15.1% down.
Touring caravan home production and factory invoiced sales graphs Jan 2020

Key Points

  • Demand for two and six berths is down on last year.
  • Demand for four and five berths and twin axles are broadly in line.
  • Majority of dealers are offering similar discounts, although a fair percentage are offering more.
  • Customer finance penetration is overall equal but a number of dealers report weaker penetration.
  • Island beds with center washrooms remain top choice.

Used Market

Used caravan sales continue to be more buoyant than new with the majority of dealers holding the view that sales are broadly in line with last year. However, a reasonable percentage of traders reported stronger activity. The bulk of demand is for units with a transverse island bed layout. Units with the center washroom are becoming a popular used choice, but there are relatively few in the market currently.

Key Points

  • Demand for all berths including twin axles was broadly in line with last year.
  • Stock availability during the last quarter has been similar to the same period 2018.
  • Traders reported having less five and six berth family units, albeit there are relatively few in the market.               
  • Twin single beds also less popular used.
  • Majority of dealers are happy with their stock levels.

Summary

What are the prospects for 2020?

It is very likely to be a tough start but much hinges on the outcome of 31st January. If the UK leaves the European Union, there is certainly potential for 2020 to be a stronger year, albeit the industry may have to wait until 2021 for any marked growth. However, if BREXIT faces another delay then it could be a similar year to 2019.

January Edition

For this edition, taking into account the market place and remaining unsold 2019 models heavily discounted, values have been reduced across the board, except where trade feedback or evidence from the market has indicated further adjustment were necessary.

Motorcycle market round up – December 2019

January 2019 started on a positive note, however, as the year progressed significant growth proved difficult for the motorcycle industry. Largely a result of the political backdrop, poor consumer confidence hindered demand. As a result, registrations were erratic, varying month to month, without any real momentum.

Paul Mcdonald, Glass’s Leisure Vehicles Editor said, “It has without doubt been another tough year for the industry.  The UK failed to leave the EU twice, had a change of Prime Minister and a General Election in December, weakening consumer confidence. Unfortunately this is likely to continue into 2020 with the UK due to leave the EU at the end of January, followed by the potential for prolonged trade deal negotiations.”

According to the Motorcycle Industry Association (MCIA), December registrations were 2.9% down compared to 2018.  However, the end of year total of 106,688 shows the market grew by 1.4%. In view of 2018 finishing a mere 0.5% of 2017, indicates the industry has been stagnant since 2016.

2019 Highlights

  • Five out of nine categories recorded growth
  • Mopeds had a strong year enjoying the largest growth
  • Adventure sports continue to strengthen overall but sales have been erratic
  • Sports tourers suffered the largest downturn but these are fairly low volume sellers

December Highlights

  • Five out of nine categories recorded growth
  • Sports tourers enjoyed the strongest growth
  • Higher volume selling naked machines experienced a modest increase
  • Adventure sports suffered another decline

Hot YTD in December

  • Honda PCX125 remains top of the table
  • Yamaha NMax was runner up
  • BMW R1250 GS continues to put in a strong performance
  • Strong value Royal Enfield Interceptor 650 remains a popular choice

What can the industry expect moving forward?

The next few months are likely be tough with sales in 2020 likely to be similar to 2019. However, if the UK successfully exits the EU at the end of January, which is looking more likely after two failed attempts, the market could experience some growth as spending confidence slowly recovers. As always at this time of year, there are some exciting new models in the pipeline due to land in showrooms, which will no doubt help stimulate demand. Motorcycle Live 2019 saw a marginal increase in attendance compared to 2018, which was positive and the Carole Nash MCN London Motorcycle Show hosted at Excel from the 14th to 16th February, will no doubt boost interest further.

Used Market

Dealer feedback suggests December 2019 used motorcycle demand declined versus 2018 with few dealers seeing this as a surprise as the General Election coupled to persistent wet weather subdued retail sales. Some improved footfall came over the Christmas period creating hope amongst some dealers that January sales might improve the pre-Christmas drought.

Stock

Dealers continue to state that stock availability is broadly in line with last year. However, sourcing issues persist, especially with 50-125cc scooters commanding premiums due to a lack of supply. With demand for new bikes waning, the parallel effect is a fall in the supply of customer part exchanges resulting in more dealers sourcing used stock via wholesale routes.

Top Performers

  • Triumph Street Triple
  • Suzuki V-Strom 650
  • Triumph Tiger 800
  • Honda CBR650

Sales Environment

With the arrival of 2020, dealers are looking forward to this year’s spring customer deliveries. However, with Brexit at the end of January and UK trade deals still requiring negotiation, market forecasts for the year vary considerably. As ever the market is weather dependent and whilst the country braces itself for the colder weather to come, most traders expect a small increase in sales activity in quarter one.

Following market analysis, and careful consideration, the majority of values have been held for the February edition of Glass’s data with exceptions where trade feedback or evidence from the market place suggests further necessary adjustments.

LCV Used Marketplace update – January 2020

December’s new LCV market returned to growth following three months of decline growing 7.8% with only the pickup sector failing to grow. Overall, 27,551 new vehicles were registered in December and rounded off a solid annual performance, finishing 2.4% up on 2018.

Breaking the month down by sectors reveals growth of 7.7%, 39.2% and 4.2% for Vans under 2.0 tonnes, Vans between 2.0-2.5 tonnes and Vans between 2.5-3.5 tonnes respectively, whilst Pickup registrations fell by 1.2%.

Top five LCV registrations

Top 5 LCV registrations for full year 2019, December 2019 and December 2018

For the full year, the sectors produced growth of 4.4%, 10.5% and 1.2% for Vans under 2.0 tonnes, Vans between 2.0-2.5 tonnes and Vans between 2.5-3.5 tonnes respectively, whilst Pickup registrations fell by 1.0% on 2018 levels.

The LCV market finished 2.4% ahead of 2018, with registrations of 365,778 (357,325 – 2018). This was the third highest total on record and despite the political and economic uncertainty, buyers continued to seek the best new vehicle deals to support their businesses.

Used Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Auction Market Overview

Overview

The final month of 2019 saw wholesale market sales decline 20.0% versus November. Driven by a lack of quality used vendor stock, all sectors recorded decreased sales over the previous month.

December sales are on average 8.4 months older than twelve months ago, at 74.1 months but 3.1 months younger than last month. Average first-time conversion rates over the last 12 months improved 4.9% to 82.0%.

In December, average mileage stands at 77,445 miles, a reduction of over 5,400 miles on November and 3,100 on December 2018. With the reduction in mileage and vehicle age, the average sale price for the month increased by over £550. December’s average sale price was less than £100 lower than at the same point last year.

Small Vans: 29.9% of overall sales

Demand for vehicles in this sector reduced again in December, with the average sale price down over £150 on November. Berlingo, Transit Connect, Caddy, Combo have performed positively, with older stock such as the Astravan, Corsavan, Clio van, and Doblo van all holding their value during the month.

The average mileage of small vans sold in December fell by over 3,250 miles, whilst first time conversion rates decreased 5.8% to 81.9%.

Medium Vans: 41.0% of overall sales

This popular sector saw sales fall by over 500 units, but returned a £100 increase in the average sales price. Good levels of demand remain for Transit Custom, Trafic, and Vivaro, with premium brands such as the Transporter and Vito continuing to benefit from a loyal following. December was another strong month for the tidiest crew vans, with the best continuing to sell well.

The average mileage of those medium vans sold in December decreased by over 3,725 miles whilst first time conversion rates remained virtually static at 83.2%.

Large Vans: 17.0% of overall sales

This sector saw sales decrease 53% in December however, average sales prices increased by £67. Across this sector, there was demand for anything straight and tidy or sensibly priced, with the Transit and Sprinter proving particularly popular. Late plate Relay and Boxer were also popular choices, whilst buyers working to smaller budgets opted for older Crafter, Ducato and Master.

The average mileage of large vans sold in December decreased by over 3,500 miles with first time conversion rates increasing by 2.4% to 85.5%.

4×4 Sector: 12.1% of overall sales

Sales of 4×4 Pickups dropped by over 40% in December, whilst average prices remained just over £9,000 and on a par with November prices. Higher spec L200, Navara, and Ranger models continue to attract buyers, with those fitted with automatic transmissions in greatest demand. Older 4x4s caught the imagination and sold with ease, especially to those working to tighter budgets. The Fiat Fullback continues to struggle, whilst higher spec Defender models performed well.

Average mileage of those 4x4s sold increased by nearly 3,950 miles during December with first time conversion rates reducing by 4.4% to 73.4% (77.8% – November).

January’s Used Van Hero 2020

Each month, Glass’s Commercial Vehicle editors hold a meeting to name the current Used Van Hero in the UK market – the model they believe offers the highest level of versatility, durability and outstanding value for money.

Andy Picton, Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor: “For those who require the dual-purpose practicality of a people mover and a load-lugger, combined with a good level of standard specification, the Kangoo Maxi Crew Van is right up there.”

Andy added, “The Kangoo van range is well-established in the UK offering a wide range of solutions for fleets and sole traders alike”.

WHEN WAS IT ON SALE

First available in the UK in 1998, the second generation Renault Kangoo went on sale in 2008 also becoming the donor vehicle for both the Mercedes-Benz Citan and soon to be launched Nissan NV250. Rumours suggest Renault is readying a third generation Kangoo, but it seems unlikely to launch for at least another 12 months.

WHY

Renault offers a comprehensive range of Kangoo vans in the UK. It is available in two body lengths, standard and Maxi, with the latter including a two row Crew Van. Chopped down Compact versions were available at the 2008 launch, but Renault discontinued these derivatives due to limited demand. Adding versatility from the option list is easy by way of a choice between a multi-positioned bulkhead or a swivelling bulkhead or even a load-through hatch in the roof.

Adding to the usefulness of this van for large and small fleets alike, is the availability of different power trains including diesel, petrol and from 2011, as an all-electric Kangoo ZE; the first production electric van.

The mid-life facelift in 2013 added Electronic Stability Control (ESC) featuring Hill Start Assist (HSA) and Grip Xtend across the range. In addition, deadlocks, remote locking, an immobiliser and the Renault Anti Intruder Device (RAID) became standard on the latest versions, along with the introduction of optional Efficient Dual Clutch (EDC) automatic gearbox for some models.

Further enhancing the range’s fleet credentials was the introduction of the Business models that added Bluetooth and DAB radio as standard.

WHAT’S GOOD?

  • Mix of variants
  • Passenger leg room
  • Durable and economical manual engines
  • Comfortable cabin
  • Level of standard specification
  • 4-year/100k mile warranty
  • Dealer network coverage

WHAT’S BAD?

  • Oldest in the sector
  • Lack of modern safety features such as city emergency braking
  • Payload not up with the best in this sector
  • EDC auto not particularly economical
  • Bland outdated cabin design
  • Odd shaped handbrake mechanism

IDEAL BUY?

Renault Kangoo Maxi LL21dCi 110bhp Business Crew van

Registration Plate: 2015/65

Mileage: 40,000 miles

Glass’s Retail £7,150 Excl VAT

Glass’s Trade £5,900 Excl VAT

LCV Used Marketplace update – December 2019

The 26,238 Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV) registered in November represented the third consecutive monthly decline, down 9.6% versus November 2018.

Breaking the month down by sectors reveals growth of 17.2% for Pickups whilst Vans under 2.0 tonnes, Vans between 2.0-2.5 tonnes and Vans between 2.5-3.5 tonnes declined by 24.0%, 19.4% and 11.4% respectively.

Economic uncertainty and the introduction of Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) at the beginning of September has continued to affect performance, with the market expected to remain subdued at least until the end of the year.

Top five LCV registrations

Top 5 LCV registrations in YTD 2019, October 2019 and October 2018

The LCV market remains just ahead of 2018, with year to date (YTD) registrations standing at 338,227 (331,776 – 2018 YTD). This equates to a 1.9% increase on the same period last year, with buyers continuing to seek out the cleanest vehicles and the best deals.

Used Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Auction Market Overview – November

November LCV wholesale market sales declined nearly 5.5% versus October. Driven by a lack of quality used stock and continuing economic and political uncertainty, most sectors recorded decreased sales over the previous month.

November sales are on average 5.5 months older than twelve months ago, at 71.2 months and also 5.5 months older than last month. However, average first-time conversion rates over the last 12 months improved 0.7% to 83.9%.

In November, average mileage stands at 78,141 miles, an increase of 3,422 miles on October and nearly 850 miles more than November 2018. With the increases in mileage and slightly increased vehicle age, the average sale price for the month decreased by over £175. November’s average sale price was more than £125 lower than at the same point last year.

Small Vans: 30.0% of overall sales

In this sector, sales decreased 10.5% in November, with the average sale price down £120 on October. Berlingo, Transit Connect, Caddy, Combo and Kangoo continue to perform positively, with rarer sights such as the Astravan, Corsavan, Clio van, Mini Clubvan, Kubistar and Ford KA van all finding new homes during the month.

The average mileage of sold small vans in November increased by over 1,325 miles and first time conversion rates increased 4.9% to 85.3%.

Medium Vans: 33.5% of overall sales

This popular sector saw a 6.0% decline in sales and a £350 fall in the average sales price. Across all ages, good levels of demand remain for Transporter, Transit Custom, Trafic, Vivaro and Dispatch, with growing demand for the latest generation Vito. In this sector, the tidiest crew vans continue to sell well.

The average mileage of medium vans sold in November increased by over 5,200 miles whilst first time conversion rates remained virtually static at 84.4%.

Large Vans: 21.1% of overall sales

This sector recorded a negligible 0.35% increase in sales, coupled to a £300 fall in the average sales price. The Transit and Sprinter have proved popular again this month, with sensibly priced Crafters growing in popularity. Buyers see Relay, Boxer, Ducato, Master and Movano as good value, whilst older Daily, Interstar, NV400, LT and even Convoy sold in line with condition and mileage.

The average mileage of sold large vans in November increased by nearly 3,500 miles with first time conversion rates remaining static at 83.4%. Average age increased from 70.9 months to 74.2 months.

4×4 Sector: 14.8% of overall sales

Sales of 4×4 Pickups remained on a par with last month, whilst average prices declined by over £200 on October. The L200, Navara, Ranger, Hilux and D-Max continue to achieve the lion’s share of sales, with those fitted with automatic transmissions in greatest demand. As with the other sectors, if priced sensibly, older 4x4s have caught the imagination and sold with ease.

Average mileage of those 4x4s sold increased by over 2,500 miles during November with first time conversion rates remaining stable at 81.0% (81.2% – October).

December’s Used Van Hero

The Glass’s Commercial Vehicle Editorial team name the Mitsubishi L200 Barbarian Used Van Hero for December 2019.

Each month, the Glass’s CV team meet to name the current Used Van Hero in the UK market – the model they believe offers versatility, durability and outstanding value for money.

Andy Picton, Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor: “Responsible for introducing the first lifestyle models to the UK, the Mitsubishi L200 is a perfect combination of four wheel drive ruggedness and lifestyle appeal.”

Andy added, “The L200 range is well-established in the UK and the ‘go-to’ pick-up brand for many years. It offers a wide range of solutions for fleets and sole traders alike”.

WHY?

In the demanding commercial vehicle market, the L200 range offers a multitude of combinations and variations to create an almost limitless range of vehicle options. With the availability of workhorse and lifestyle models, manual and automatic transmissions all coupled to go anywhere four-wheel drive, the L200 is the regular choice for those wanting rugged off-road reliability, refined on-road drive and realistic fuel economy.

WHEN WAS IT ON SALE?

The first generation L200 launched in 1978 but was not available in the UK until the remodelled second generation L200 launched in 1986. This version ran for ten years.

Available from 1996 to 2006, the third generation L200 powered by a 2.5TD engine, added lifestyle models to what had previously been a utilitarian range.

Exported to 140 global markets, the fourth generation L200 launched in 2005 with its recognisable ‘J-Line’ profile.

The Series 5 launched in 2015 with an all-new 2.4DI-D engine developing outputs of 154bhp and 181bhp. The Series 5 became the donor product for the rebadged Fiat Fullback. In the UK, the Fiat Fullback had a limited lifecycle from 2016 to its demise in 2019.

The current Series 6 model launched earlier in 2019 and features Euro 6 compliant engines, a new front end and significant interior upgrades.

WHAT’S GOOD?

  • On and off road driving character
  • Available in Single, extended Club and Double Cab body styles
  • Four standard trim levels – 4Life, Titan, Warrior and Barbarian
  • Durable and economical engines
  • Comfortable cabin
  • Level of standard specification including safety and security equipment
  • Excellent electronic 4WD system
  • Newer examples can tow up to 3.5 tonnes
  • 5-year warranty
  • Dealer network coverage

WHAT’S BAD?

  • Service intervals are at 12,500 miles
  • Third gear sometimes difficult to engage on manual gearbox
  • Check for faulty Diesel Particulate Filter
  • Paint quality is an issue for some
  • Infotainment system on earlier models fiddly to use
  • Dashboard plastics can scratch easily
  • Payload not up with the best in this sector
  • Cabin storage space is somewhat lacking
  • Check the service history before purchasing

IDEAL BUY?

Mitsubishi L200 Barbarian 2.4DI-D 178bhp Auto Double Cab

Registration Plate: 2016/66

Mileage: 45,000

Glass’s Retail £15,400 Excl VAT

Glass’s Trade £12,400 Excl VAT

Motorcycle market round up – October 2019

Despite 2019 starting strongly, this year is proving to be a tough one for the motorcycle market. Against the same time in 2018, sales increased in the first couple of months, however since March, they have been erratic with some months behind and others modestly ahead. The main issue is the political backdrop continuing to hinder consumer spending. Paul McDonald, Glass’s Leisure Vehicles Editor said, “The UK failed to leave the EU in March, changed Prime Ministers in July, failed to leave the EU again in October, and now faces a General Election on 12 December. Economic uncertainty shows little sign of abating and with it consumer spending is likely to remain suppressed.”

According to the Motorcycle Industry Association (MCIA), following a small increase in September, registrations in October suffered a decline of 2.2% versus October last year. This declined matched recent feedback from dealers indicating demand during October felt poor compared to 2018. Overall, registrations remain 1.9% ahead of 2018, thanks to the strong first quarter. 

October 2019 Highlights

  • Five out of nine categories recorded growth
  • Mopeds continue their newfound success enjoying strongest growth
  • Customs gave a strong performance but are sold in relatively small numbers
  • Adventure Sports and Naked markets both suffered a decline in October

Hot YTD in October

  • Honda PCX125 remains top of the table
  • BMW R1250 GS continues its success as runner up
  • Royal Enfield Interceptor 650 retains its strong performance
  • Yamaha MT-07 still a popular choice

What can the industry expect moving forward?

In view of recent political developments with the General Election and a further BREXIT delay, Glass’s view is that registration performance is likely to remain subdued until at least Q3 2020. Even if Brexit suffers no further delays, it will still take time for consumer confidence to recover. With this in mind, the industry should look to the second half of 2020 for the economy to settle.

Used Sales

Despite the economic and political backdrop, demand for used motorcycles retains reasonable buoyancy with some months reporting stronger activity than in 2018. However, our recent dealer feedback suggests demand in October declined versus October last year. The wet UK autumnal weather continues to have a negative effect on sales although dealers point to politics as the main reason for the decline in activity.

Top Performers

  • Yamaha NMax
  • Ducati Multistrada
  • Yamaha R1
  • Honda PCX125

Stock

The majority of dealers are finding the acquisition of stock more difficult this year. The main issue appears to be the availability of part exchanges generated from fewer new bike sales. Also affecting used stock availability are owners opting to sell privately and increasing used bike exports coupled with the depressed value of Stirling.

Sales environment

Connected to a further delay for BREXIT and the General Election on the 12th December, UK economic uncertainty continues to intensify. Combining this with a seasonal fall in demand and the weather forecast for the rest of the year, which one dealer described “awful”, the majority of dealers expect demand to decline over the next month.

Considering this for December data, the Glass’s team will apply a modest decrease across much of the guide. The exceptions are where trade feedback or evidence from the market suggests further adjustments are necessary.

LCV Used Marketplace update – November 2019

Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) registrations fell for the second month running, with total registrations falling 11.0% versus October 2018.

Breaking the month down by sectors reveals growth for Vans under 2.0 tonnes of 2.0%, and Vans between 2.0-2.5 tonnes (31.0%), whilst the Pickup sector and Vans between 2.5-3.5 tonnes declined by 12.0% and 19.2% respectively.

The introduction of Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) at the beginning of September has resulted in shortages of some compliant vehicles due to build and delivery delays, especially for chassis conversions.

With many buyers taking advantage of strong offers on LCVs during the first three quarters of the year, the market is looking subdued with buyers reluctant to change vehicles with the ongoing political and economic uncertainty continuing to influence business confidence.

Top five LCV registrations

Top 5 LCV registrations for YTD 2019, October 2019 and October 2018

Nevertheless, the LCV market is still ahead of 2018, with year to date (YTD) registrations standing at 311,989 (302,741 – 2018 YTD). This equates to a 3.1% increase on the same period last year, with buyers continuing to seek out the cleanest vehicles and the best deals.

Used Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Auction Market Overview – October

Overview

The October wholesale market kick-started into life with a near 50% improvement in sales over September. Fired by a shortage in quality used stock and extended lead in times for new vehicles, every sector reported increased sales over the previous month with average first-time conversion rates increasing 7.2% to 85.6%.

October stock sales are on average 9 months older than twelve months ago, at 73.1 months and 4.3 months older than last month. Average mileage is 80,676 miles, a decrease of 63 miles on September, but over 1,750 miles more than October 2018. The average sale price for the month decreased by over £150, reflecting the slightly older stock on offer. October’s average sale price was nearly £800 lower than at the same point last year.

Overall, October sales volumes declined 26.7% versus October 2018, highlighting the 12-month market volatility driven by continuing economic and political uncertainty.

Small Vans: 35.4% of overall sales

Although volume can be an issue in this sector, Berlingo, previous generation Combo, Citan and Transit Connect continue to perform positively, with prices on a par with September. Quality examples of Kangoo, NV200 and Doblo van, regular value brands, have also seen average prices holding firm for the month.

Volumes sold in this sector increased over 1.5% versus September whilst average prices remained static and equal to October last year. The average mileage of sold small vans in October increased by 250 miles and first time conversion rates increased 6.8% to 86.6%.

Medium Vans: 35.3% of overall sales

This popular sector saw good levels of demand for the Transporter, Transit Custom, Trafic, Vivaro and Dispatch over the month across all ages, with the tidiest examples selling well.

Volumes sold in this sector increased 1.7% on the previous month, with average prices in line with last month. Average mileage of those sold in October decreased by over 4,350 miles and by over 6,600 miles on the same point last year. First time conversion rates for October were up 4.9% to 87.2%.

Large Vans: 19.1% of overall sales

The Transit and Sprinter remain the favourites in this sector, with the Relay, Boxer, Master and Movano seen as good value. The Crafter is growing in popularity and if priced sensibly has little difficulty in selling. Condition and mileage in this sector is particularly important.

Average prices of those sold in October were up over £100. Average mileage over the same period was down by over 7,750 miles and by over 1,600 on the same point last year. First time conversion rates for October were up 10.5% to 84.8%.

4×4 Pickups: 10.2% of overall sales

The L200, Navara, Ranger, Hilux and D-Max continue to achieve the lion’s share of sales during October, with those fitted with automatic transmissions in greatest demand. The Amarok continues to struggle, with only the nicest catching trade attention. Older 4x4s, regardless of badge, sell in regular numbers, with traders seeing them as good value for money. Overly hard worked examples with excessive mileages remain difficult to shift.

Sales of 4×4 Pickups increased for the first time in four months however, average prices were marginally down on September. Average mileage of those sold, was down by over 1,000 miles during October and by nearly 2,300 on the same point last year. First time conversion rates for October were up 13.2% to 78.2%.

November’s Used Van Hero

The Mercedes Benz Sprinter named as Glass’s Used Van Hero for November.

Each month, Glass’s Commercial Vehicle editors hold a meeting to name the current Used Van Hero in the UK market – the model they believe offers versatility, durability and outstanding value for money.

Andy Picton, Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor: “The omnipresent Mercedes-Benz Sprinter earns a place on the large panel van podium. Many fleets make this their vehicle of choice, whilst many SMEs aspire to owning one”.

Andy added, “The Sprinter, available in the UK for nearly 25 years, continues to grow in popularity. The range seemingly offers a solution for every occasion with a GVW covering 3 to 5 tonnes”.

WHY?

In the demanding commercial vehicle market, the Sprinter range offers a multitude of combinations and variations to create an almost limitless range of vehicle options. With the availability of different wheelbases, van and chassis derivatives, engine power outputs, transmissions, front wheel drive, rear wheel drive and four wheel drive the Sprinter continues to be the regular choice of fleets wanting reliability, realistic fuel economy and a refined drive.

WHEN WAS IT ON SALE?

Built in Dusseldorf, the first generation Mercedes-Benz Sprinter launched in 1995. Of note, Electronic Stability Program (ESP) became standard across the range from 2002.

Following in 2006, the second generation Sprinter was available in three different length wheelbases, from two to five tonnes. The mid-life update included engine, specification and safety enhancements.

Replaced by the current VS30 Sprinter range in 2018, this new model features for the first time, front wheel drive models, complementing the existing rear wheel drive and 4×4 models. The current range now totals over 1,700 variants.

WHAT’S GOOD?

  • Excellent driving characteristics
  • Wide range of body styles
  • Durable engines
  • Comfortable cabin
  • Light and responsive steering
  • ASSYST service computer, brings flexible servicing to the Sprinter
  • Dealer network with some sites offering 24/7 open hours
  • Lots of safety kit
  • Excellent residual values for the best presented examples

WHAT’S BAD?

  • The kudos of the three pointed star can be expensive
  • Seals around the high pressure injection system on the engine are known to fail
  • Prop-shaft failure possible on higher mileage vehicles
  • Known paint quality and bodywork corrosion issues
  • Check condition of suspension, bushes, springs and dampers for wear
  • Payload compromised for the biggest vans at 3.5 tonne
  • Check the service history before purchasing

IDEAL BUY?

Mercedes-Benz Sprinter 314 2.1CDI 140bhp LWB High Roof manual Euro 6 compliant 2017/67 plate with 43,000 miles

Glass’s Retail £17,050 Excl VAT

Glass’s Trade £15,025 Excl VAT