Fuel Type: Hybrid (HEV)

Motorcycle Market Update October 2020

Following a significant year on year registration increase in July and August (up 42% and 32% respectively), data published by the Motorcycle Industry Association (MCIA) shows that registrations grew by a more modest but still impressive 11.7% in September. Six out of the nine sales categories recorded growth with mopeds enjoying the strongest increase, followed by scooters.

Glass’s Leisure Vehicles Editor Paul McDonald said, “Following a significant boost in registrations over the last few months, a slow-down in September was not unexpected, as recent growth was partly a result of pent-up demand following lockdown. So, to see the increases continue is great news”.

With the major auction groups continuing to hold only online sales, some buyers continue to be wary about spending substantial amounts of money on vehicles they have seen in person. However, this trust continues to improve as buyers become more accepting of the descriptions provided by the auction houses.

Engine band highest registered models – September 2020

Power Band Model

0-50cc Lexmoto ECHO PLUS 50
51-125cc Honda CB 125F
126-650cc Royal Enfield INTERCEPTOR INT 650
651-1000cc Yamaha TENERE 700
Over 1000cc BMW R1250 GS ADVENTURE

Data courtesy of the MCIA

The used car retail market is showing similar recovery behaviour to the wholesale market. The key measures – Average Sale Price and Days-to-Sell are both positive. Just like the auction market, their rate of recovery is slowing, suggesting they are approaching their natural level.

Glass’s Live Retail pricing tool reports on the average time a car spends on the forecourt, with lower days to sell indicating higher retail demand. The average for July of 59.1 days is still 30% higher than expected, but in the circumstances is a distinct improvement over June’s average of 81.9 days. If the decreases continue over the coming weeks the value for August will be similar to August 2019.

New motorcycle market

Sales and demand remained buoyant throughout September, although some dealers reported a slow-down towards the end of the month. Concerns remain regarding the economy, especially how additional COVID-19 restrictions will affect the industry moving into 2021. Despite this, given the average riding age of 56, there is optimism that a significant proportion of motorcycle consumers are financially stable enough to support sales momentum moving forward.

What can the industry expect moving forward?

The industry has already demonstrated its resilience with sales and demand exceeding expectations. However, COVID-19 continues to be a major issue. Given this, the outlook for the final quarter of 2020 remains uncertain.  The Glass’s editorial team will continue to monitor all of the market dynamics during the next few months.

Used motorcycle market

With autumn now fully with us, dealers are experiencing a slow-down in enquiries. However, the used market remains remarkably resilient, potentially even more so than new.  With consumers having more time on their hands, saving money not taking holidays and unable to participate in certain hobbies, some dealers hold the view that increased numbers have taken up riding as an alternative, contributing towards recent sales growth.

Top-selling models

For dealers with major cities in their catchment areas, scooters and 125cc machines remain in strong demand, a result of commuters choosing to ride to work as an alternative to public transport. However, demand continues to be largely buoyant across the board, with the adventure and naked segments being particularly strong.  

Stock

Glass’s has received mixed feedback regarding stock availability from dealers. Although there have been improvements, some dealers continue to find locating quality used motorcycle stock a challenge, particularly 125cc machines. Compounding this issue, some riders are choosing to privately sell their old machines rather than part-exchange. However, despite these issues, many larger dealers are currently satisfied with their stock levels.

Sales activity

Sales remained positive into October with no dealers reporting a significant decline. However, with October’s weather becoming more autumnal and the heightened economic uncertainty, many values have been eased back for the November guide, except where trade feedback and evidence from the market place has suggested further adjustment is necessary. Exceptions to this are mopeds, scooters and commuter machines where values have been held.

Used Car Market Update October 2020

Auction Wholesale Market

A degree of stability seems to be returning to the UK used car auction market. Whilst the key measures of First Time Conversion Rate, Percentage of Original Cost New, and Sales Volume Index all dipped slightly in August, they all recovered in September and continue to exceed the figures achieved in the same month last year. Of course, with all the ongoing uncertainty in the world, it is too early to state that we are back to normal, but it is encouraging to see that despite all the challenges the auction market is still performing well.

First time conversion rate graph October 2020
Percentage original cost new graph October 2020

The rapid post-lockdown recovery was, at least in part, driven by a need to re-stock sites and feed pent up retail demand. Virtually every car offered received multiple bids and anything desirable was selling for very strong money. This slowed, and feedback from the market suggests that buyers are becoming a little more selective in what they buy. Desirable retail stock is still selling well at auction, moving quickly and for good money, but the less desirable stock is starting to become harder work. Cars with damage or less appealing specification can struggle to even get a bid, and those that do sell are not achieving the sort of money they would have two to three months ago.

In terms of what is popular, SUVs continue to sell well. Convertible hammer prices are weakening, no doubt due to the change in season, although they are still selling. Despite all the media hype and their apparent popularity in the new market, alternatively fuelled cars continue to challenge vendors in auction channels. This could be because the latest generation vehicles have much longer ranges and quicker charging times than those typically found in the used market, making them appear less desirable and thus perhaps worth less than the vendors may be hoping… Also, the restrictions around leisure activities have meant reduced demand for taxis and minicabs, which have become biased more towards low emission cars in recent years.

Used Retail Market

The used Retail market is also showing signs of stabilising, with the number of sales observations and the average sale price for September being very similar to those in August. The number of observations is still lower than for the same month last year, down just over 10%, but the average sale price is 5.8% higher, even though the average age of the cars sold was 47.5 months, almost 20% higher than the 39.8 months reported for September 2019.

Used car market retail observations graph October 2020
Used car market average sale price October 2020

Glass’s live retail pricing tool GlassNet Radar also shows that the average time a car spends on the forecourt continues to decrease. At 37.7 days it is 8.1% lower than the 41.0 days reported for the same month last year, and a notable 17% improvement over August’s 45.5 days. This is a good indication that there continues to be a healthy retail demand for used cars.

Used car market average days to sell October 2020

Outlook

Taken at face value, the metrics for both the wholesale and retail markets suggest that October will be another promising month. However, we continue to live in uncertain times and the recent lockdown announcements may likely slow down the recovery, especially in those regions that are seeing more stringent conditions. More transactions are now carried out remotely though, not just for the wholesale market but also for retail, and this may lessen that impact. We are also heading into the final few months of the year which traditionally means a slowing down of the market, especially if we have “proper” winter weather. So, as we head into the final quarter of what has been an extraordinary year the only thing we can be certain of is that the used car markets – both wholesale and retail – are as unpredictable as they have been for most of this year. Of course, Glass’s Editorial team will continue to monitor activity and share what they find.

Motorcycle Market Update September 2020

Significant year on year increases in motorcycle registrations in July and August are boosting the motorcycle market following the national lockdown. Data published by the Motorcycle Industry Association (MCIA) shows that registrations grew 32% compared to August 2019, with all categories recording an increase. Once again it is the scooter category recording the strongest growth.

Glass’s Leisure Vehicles Editor Paul McDonald said, “After a huge boost in July registrations, further growth was hoped for in August, albeit not quite to the same level.  However, a 32% increase was incredible news. The question today is will this resurgence last in the face of recession and an uncertain UK job market?”

Engine band highest registered models – August 2020

Power Band Model

0-50cc Lexmoto ECHO PLUS 50
51-125cc Honda CB 125F
126-650cc Royal Enfield INTERCEPTOR INT 650
651-1000cc Yamaha TENERE 700
Over 1000cc BMW R1250 GS ADVENTURE

Data courtesy of the MCIA

New market

Sales and demand remained strong throughout August. The main focus continues to be the 125cc and commuter markets, although middle weights and larger machines also did well. However, the main issue is a shortage of new machines, with uncertain factory lead times, and some dealers quoting dates early next year for deliveries of certain models.

What can the industry expect moving forward?

Forecast demand is likely to create challenges for dealers into next year. The Glass’s editorial team will follow the market with interest over the final quarter, as summer turns to autumn and the furlough scheme closes with the inevitability of redundancies. Glass’s view is that while there is a reasonable chance commuter and 125cc sales will remain buoyant for the rest of the year, demand for the higher end of the market could decline more rapidly than typically expected during autumn.

Used Market

Since motorcycle dealers reopened following lockdown, the used market has remained busy with strong sales and enquiries throughout August. However, dealers are starting to experience quieter periods, typical in a ‘normal’ year, with August and September holidays. As increasing numbers of employees return to work they continue to seek alternatives to public transport raising expectations that for the remainder of the year, the commuter market will remain buoyant in the used market too. CBT training centres remain busy, good news for the industry’s future, with the potential of at least some new riders progressing to full licences. With the average rider age now approximately 55, this fresh interest is welcome news.  

Top Selling Models

Scooters and 125cc remain in high demand, driven by the increase in interest from commuters, however, a broad range of machines including higher priced examples continue to enjoy strong demand.

Used Stock

Supply continues to improve due to increased new sales generating more part exchanges. Larger dealers report having a good selection of stock and are satisfied with their stock levels, although it remains challenging sourcing quality scooters and 125cc machines. To supplement part exchanges, most dealers continue to proactively maintain stock levels to match demand.

Sales Activity

Today, the market continues to be buoyant, with autumn approaching and the furlough scheme drawing to a close, the next few months are looking increasingly uncertain. The weather in the first half of September provided excellent riding conditions, growing the chances of an extended sales season. Taking this into account and after some careful consideration, many values have been eased back for the October guide, except where trade feedback and evidence from the market place suggests further adjustments were necessary.  Exceptions to this are mopeds, scooters and commuter machines where values have been held, due to strong demand.

Car Market Overview September 2020

According to registration figures released by the SMMT, the UK’s new car market recorded its seventh monthly decline in August with a 5.8% reduction compared to last year. Fortunately, as August tends to be a low volume month, the reduction equates to only 5,347 units. Year to date, total registrations now sit 39.7% lower than 2019 at 915,615 cars.

There is little prospect of clawing back lost ground due to lockdown. However, September’s plate change could offer some good news if the new ’70-plate’ produces a bumper registration haul and exceeds last year’s total. There are suggestions from the industry that if new car stock allowed, September could record the highest number of registrations ever, due to resurgent demand. This positive market sentiment is incredible for a market so severely affected during the lockdown, however, in reality, COVID-19 related production and logistical related delays will likely rule out a record September.

The used car market continues to outperform last year with auction activity in August remaining strong. The average first-time conversion rate was 82.8% which is almost five percentage points better than in August 2019. Hammer prices remained high in August, exceeding Glass’s Trade values by 2.3%, leading to further increases in Guide values in September. This compares to a reduction in September last year of 2%, underlying how different this year is compared to last.

The buoyant retail market continues to underpin strong trade market conditions. Following the trend since the end of lockdown, average days to sell retail units continued to reduce in August. The average fell to 45 days down from 59 days in July and is now tracking pre-lockdown levels.

Whilst increased new car sales activity through September is expected to generate more part exchanges, it is unlikely that they will hit auction sales in volume until the back end of the month. We, therefore, expect wholesale trading conditions to remain strong throughout September.

New Car Market Update September 2020

The latest figures released by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) showed that registrations in August declined by 5.8%, suggesting another very disappointing month for the industry. However, delving a little deeper into the data suggests that August 2020 is not quite as bad as first impressions show.

The decrease was only 5,347 units compared to 2019, as August is traditionally the lowest volume month of the year. This equates to less than half a per cent of 2019’s total annual sales. Additionally, August’s total of 87,226 units is, in fact, the fifth-highest August since the start of the revised registration frequency back in 2001.

New car market august registrations by year graph 2020

Data courtesy of SMMT

The August sales reductions in the major European markets of France, Germany and Spain were considerably worse, down 19.8%, 20% and 10.1% respectively, despite government-backed incentives in place to stimulate demand, which customers in the UK currently do not enjoy.

Through the sales channels, once again private retail sales performed better than fleet/business with only a 1.7% decline (699 units) on last year, which shows some stability in consumer confidence which is vital for the economy as a whole moving forward. Fleet activity was down 5.5% and Business sales channel dropped 57.9% albeit on a very small total.

Analysing the fuel types shows a similar story, with zero and low emission registrations increasing and gaining market share from petrol and especially diesel. Battery electric cars increased by over 77%, achieving 6.4% of the total sales in August and now stand at almost 5% market share year to date, while pure diesel has declined almost 60% this year.

New car market Fuel split YTD graph September 2020

Data courtesy of SMMT

The top ten best sellers list for the month is back to normality with the Fiesta, Focus, Golf and Corsa all in the top five. However, there is additional good news for Ford as the new Ford Puma small crossover came in fourth place.

Fleet was once again a laggard this month compared to private sales. For the industry to get fully back on track it needs businesses to feel confident with a sustained period of economic improvement after the tumultuous first half of the year. At this point, more businesses will feel confident enough to invest in new car lease contracts.

There are some headwinds including uncertainty over Brexit negotiations on the withdrawal and any new trade deal with the EU. Additionally, the impact from Coronavirus flare-ups this autumn and winter may well force yet more delay on large expenditure commitments by businesses. As noted before, September is a critical month for the car industry and will set the tone for the rest of the year.

Used Car Market Update September 2020

Auction Wholesale Market

As expected, the rate of recovery of the used car market in the UK slowed a little in August. The key metrics of First Time Conversion Rate, Percentage of Original Cost New, and Sales observations Index ended the month lower than for July, although all still performed better than in August 2019. This suggests that “normality”, or what passes for that in these strange times, is returning to the market.

First time conversion rate graph September 2020
Used car market % original cost new graph Septmeber 2020

Taken at face value, the month-on-month reductions may be thought of as a bad thing. However, as with most statistics, it is important to consider a longer-term view. Although auctions remain only online, sale volumes are higher than at the same time last year and the decline from July is minor. There is a degree of “catch up”, but as the whole market was frozen during the lockdown, there is not a particularly large build-up of unsold stock with vendors.

Cars may not have been selling during the lockdown, but at the same time, they were also not being de-fleeted or part-exchanged. The high first-time conversion rate suggests that demand is keeping up with supply. This is supported by the average percentage of original cost new showing that buyers are keen to buy and are prepared to pay good money.

Wholesaler buyer demand

Sales of SUVs and convertibles have been noticeably strong since auctions resumed, the latter helped by the excellent summer weather. One area of the market where the Glass’s Editorial team continues to monitor very closely are alternative fuelled cars, especially battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as demand for these continues to fluctuate every month.

Used Retail Market

The Used Retail Market continues to perform well. The number of observed sales has improved slightly over July but is still lagging behind the same period last year. However, like the wholesale market, the average sale price is notably higher than at the same point last year.

Used car market retail observations graph September 2020
Used car market average sale price graph September 2020

Glass’s Live Retail pricing tool also shows that the average time a car spends on the forecourt continues to decrease and is at virtually the same level as last year – 45.5 days for August 2020 compared with 42.1 days for August 2019. This measure is a good indicator of the level of used car retail demand and the rate of improvement suggests that September’s value should show further improvement.

Used car market average days to sell graph September 2020

September 2020

Despite the challenges resulting from an online-only wholesale market and socially-distanced retailing, it appears that both the wholesale and retail used car markets have largely recovered, or even improved on pre-lockdown levels. Whilst is it tempting to be enthusiastic and positive about their prospects we are still operating in very uncertain times. A second full national lockdown is highly unlikely, although not impossible. However, localised and regional lockdowns are already in use and will continue through to the end of the year, and probably into 2021.

However, there is no harm in a bit of cautious optimism. September brings the new 70-plate and September’s new car registrations may exceed those of March; another example of the way 2020 has been turned upside down by COVID 19. New car registrations generate used car activity. This means that through September, especially the latter part, there are likely to be improvements in the key metrics for both the wholesale and retail markets.

Car Market Overview August 2020

New car sales

Manufacturers and dealers will take some comfort from the latest new car registration statistics from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). Following a full month of trading across the UK, the new car market produced the first monthly positive result this year, being 11.3% up on July 2019, with pent-up demand finally materialising in registration numbers.

As July is not a high volume registration month, the increase has done little to impact the overall year-to-date position with the market sitting 41.9% lower than 2019 at just over 828,000 units. However, July’s result will give dealers and manufacturers some confidence that demand remains for new cars. With some attractive deals currently on offer, August should be similarly positive. However, the high-volume September plate change is the focus month for the industry, where delivering an increase versus September 2019 may prove difficult.  

Used market

With some auction providers reporting higher stock levels than last year and an increase of over 10 percentage points in the first-time conversion rate to 86.4%, it underlines the buoyancy of July’s auction market. Hammer prices were also strong, exceeding Glass’s Trade values by 3.3% on average, leading to an increase in Glass’s values in August. With auction activity and hammer prices showing signs of further growth through August, the expectation is further increases in values in September, bucking seasonal trends.

A strong retail market is driving this exceptional wholesale activity. In July the average days it took a dealer to sell a used car fell from 82 to 59 days according to Glass’s Live Retail pricing tool, rapidly returning to pre-lockdown levels (39 days in March) as fresh stock is added to forecourts.

Used Car Market Update August 2020

Auction Wholesale Market

The recovery of the UK used car auction market continued through July. The key metrics of first-time conversion rate, sale value and sale volume are returning to track with their pre-lockdown trends. However, the rate of improvement is slowing suggesting that an over-recovery, where the market overshoots and then goes through a period of decline, is becoming less likely.

Used car market first time conversion rate graph August 2020

Sale volumes have recovered to pre-lockdown levels, despite year-to-date new car registrations being down over 40% due to the lockdown. Reduced new car registrations are impacting the volume of part-exchanges generated and the number of contract hire and lease de-fleets.

With the major auction groups continuing to hold only online sales, some buyers continue to be wary about spending substantial amounts of money on vehicles they have seen in person. However, this trust continues to improve as buyers become more accepting of the descriptions provided by the auction houses.

With traditional physical auctions unlikely to return before the end of the year, all buyers are going to have to adjust to the new way of sourcing stock. Whilst there are some challenges around online auctions, there are also advantages – particularly the ability to visit several auctions all over the country in one day rather than spending several hours in the day travelling to one or two physical sites.

Used Retail Market

The used car retail market is showing similar recovery behaviour to the wholesale market. The key measures – Average Sale Price and Days-to-Sell are both positive. Just like the auction market, their rate of recovery is slowing, suggesting they are approaching their natural level.

Used car market average sales price graph August 2020

Glass’s Live Retail pricing tool reports on the average time a car spends on the forecourt, with lower days to sell indicating higher retail demand. The average for July of 59.1 days is still 30% higher than expected, but in the circumstances is a distinct improvement over June’s average of 81.9 days. If the decreases continue over the coming weeks the value for August will be similar to August 2019.

Used car market average days to sell graph August 2020

Next Month

The trends of the key metrics for both the wholesale and retail markets continue to be positive. The rates of improvement are slowing, reducing the spectre of a “boom and bust” recovery and show trading is likely to return to seasonal levels within a few months. September will see the launch of the 70 plate generating more used car volume and activity, although typically the effect of this will not be seen until the latter part of the month.

Overall, registrations in September could exceed those for March, showing how “back to front” this year’s car market has been compared to typical seasonal activity.  The new car market is still catching up, however, Glass’s data suggests that total registrations for 2020 will be around 30% lower than in 2019.

August – Latest whitepaper update: How will COVID-19 shape used car markets?

As coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdowns are left behind, thoughts turn to economic recovery. However, as the latest update to the Autovista Group whitepaper ‘How will COVID-19 shape used car markets’ explains, in the last month, the situation has taken a gloomier turn.

Since the production of the previous report, the view of the crisis and its economic impact has darkened. Forecasts have been declining since the pandemic struck Europe, but they seem to not have fully bottomed out, yet.

In our July update of this whitepaper, 10 out of 18 markets assigned the highest risk to scenario three, ‘medium risk: slow u-shaped recovery.’ In this August update, 12 out of 18 markets have moved into this scenario.

Residual value impact

The whitepaper also highlights the impact on residual values (RVs) depending on the most probable scenario and country-specific circumstances.

The majority of countries assign a higher probability to the medium risk scenario 3, which describes a drop in RVs that is more substantial and drags on longer than scenario 2 countries. Towards the end of 2022, used cars will – on average – still trade around 3% lower than in March 2020. But there are substantial country differences in this scenario cluster.

Looking at the data presented, it becomes apparent that Southern Europe may be impacted worst, and will also suffer the longest. The Nordic region has received the most extensive adjustments in this whitepaper update. In Sweden and Finland, there are no government incentives directly supporting the automotive industry.

Three-speed RVs

Autovista Group has developed a COVID-19 tracker, which follows recent RV developments in 12 European markets. The indexed tracker starts in February, with a value of 100. In the UK and France, the tracker shows that the index of RVs has risen since mid-May and peaked at 103.7 (a 3.7% rise) in the UK and 101.8 (a 1.8% rise) in France in the week to 2 August.

Autovista Group anticipates a slowdown in the RV development in France and our latest residual-value outlook calls for prices of used cars to be 0.3% lower in France at the end of 2020 than when the Covid-19 crisis erupted in Europe, in March. Nevertheless, this is the most resilient expectation for all the European markets, according to the whitepaper.

You can find more information about how different markets are recovering, and the economic scenarios they are facing, in the latest update of the Autovista Group whitepaper – ‘How will COVID-19 shape used car markets’ – which can be viewed here.

A golden age for used-car markets?

As the automotive industry starts its recovery following the coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdowns, there is a notion of unexpected recovery visible in some markets. Is this pointing towards a golden age for used-car markets? Christof Engelskirchen, Autovista Group’s chief economist, talks with Anne Lange, head of data science, and Markus Halonen, head of research, statistics & data analysis at Autovista Group, about signs of recovery and the root causes for different market reactions in the used-car market at this time.

Christof: Are we in a phase of the market, where the trends that we see can already be safely interpreted or is it is more affected by external events? I am referring to the massive incentive scheme in France, also for used-car buying, which has pushed RVs up. I am also referring to the weak-British-pound- and supply-shortage-induced lack of new and used cars on the market that meets pent-up demand and lifts prices?

Anne: There are certainly some anomalies affecting current used-car price trends. For example, the French incentive scheme, that subsidises used-car buying and drives RVs up and the UK’s shortage of supply of new and used cars, that also drives RVs up.

There is one emerging trend that may last longer: people may exhibit a financial cautiousness and rather turn to a used-car than a new-car. The lack of available new cars further compounds this. In addition, those that used to rely on public transport may opt for some budget alternatives, thus driving up demand for older used-cars.

Markus: The reason for the decreasing active stock (number of active adverts) is simply that dealers are selling more cars than they are buying in. For example, in Finland and Sweden, the used-car selling volume has been at a high level lately. In June this year, used-car retail sales volumes were higher than in June 2019. High sales but lower than normal inflow of used cars keeps the stock falling. We have some anomalies, like the French used-car incentive scheme, pushing RVs up. Still, even in those countries where schemes are different or non-existent, there are commonalities: used-car sales volume is at a good level, stock is decreasing and prices are increasing. On top of what Anne said, a reason for the currently good demand for used cars is that people are spending less money on vacation and spent less during the lockdown. Patterns of consumption have changed, at least temporarily. Used-car markets are seeing the benefits.

Christof: People ask you many questions around our methodology for publishing used-car price development. How sensitive is our methodology to outliers? How do we control for irregular market conditions? What is the lag in our published values, i.e. how quickly are we capturing trends that may emerge?

Markus: Our methodology is based on market observation data that we source from various portals all across Europe on a daily basis. We control for outliers, data errors and non-actively managed cars. This works reliably.

I am not sure what the background is on the question of controlling irregular market conditions. Irregular market conditions like the COVID-19 pandemic affect used-car prices and that is what we are capturing with our data models. For measurement accuracy, we have implemented rolling values, where past days’ trends are captured as well as the current day’s realities. We put more weight on recent values in the statistical models. There is only a very small lag in how fast we see emerging trends, much smaller than for any economic modelling.

The full interview can be read here. In it, Lange and Halonen discuss the trends emerging for old and young used-cars across Europe, and whether dealer activity has picked up following COVID-19 lockdowns. Their answers are backed up by data showing the emerging patterns of used-car prices and stock levels in the market.

New Car Market Update August 2020

At last there is some positivity to report in the new car market, with July registrations recording the first increase of the year. Registrations came in at 174,887, which represents an 11.3% rise on the same month last year, according to figures released by the SMMT. This was the strongest July performance since 2016.

Although fleet registrations accounted for the lion’s share of the market (52.5%), it was private registrations that demonstrated the most growth, with a 20.4% increase. Dealers being open for business for the whole month of July will have helped fulfil the pre-order backlog caused by the COVID-19 lockdown, together with improvements in the supply chain. There is also some pent-up demand generated by consumers who managed to save throughout lockdown, and are taking advantage of some competitive offers and incentives from manufacturers and dealers.

Private new car registrations monthly graph August 2020

Data courtesy of SMMT

Growth was weaker in the fleet sector, with a 5.2% improvement on this time last year to 91,857 units, as both longer term and short cycle business struggles to pick up. At the same time, coronavirus uncertainty continues to hamper business expenditure decision making, and working practices for their employees, which may affect leasing deals going forward.  Although, if there is continued improvement in the economy, back to something like pre-lockdown levels, then expect to see a strong new car order book as confidence improves and lease deals currently being extended end.

New car market sector split YTD graph August 2020

Alternative fuel cars (AFVs) are still gaining market share at a fast pace, with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) up 259.4% and Plug-in hybrids (PHEV) gaining 320.3% compared to July last year. BEVs now make up nearly 5% of this year’s total new car registrations compared to only 1.4% last year, while all other AFVs are also increasing market share, albeit to a slightly lesser extent.

The best sellers list has returned to some sort of normality this month, with small to medium sized cars filling the majority of the top ten as deliveries get back up to speed. The Vauxhall Corsa, Ford Fiesta and Ford Focus fill the top three places respectively. Volkswagen has three entrants, the Golf, Polo and Tiguan. The Mercedes A-Class, the Nissan Qashqai, Ford Kuga and MINI also feature.

August is usually a quiet month for new registrations with summer holidays in full swing, but with getaways curtailed this year, a similar monthly registration increase could be possible and would be beneficial but not crucial to the industry. The acid test will be the September 70-plate change. This is ordinarily the second most important month of the year and therefore a healthy increase in registrations would certainly go some way to keep the recovery on track.

The Convertible Market

At a time when more and more SUVs are launched, a car without a roof was once the norm, as all cars were built without any roof or sides. This was quite often to reduce weight and ensure horseless carriages could maintain forward momentum due to a lack of power. As available engine power increased, roofs and sides were added to cars.

Production of convertibles increased again after the World War II as a result of American soldiers in France and the UK experiencing small roadster cars not available in the United States. These roadsters included the MG Midget and Triumph Roadster. To compete through the 1950s and 1960s, and service the demand of returning GIs, car manufacturers in the United States manufactured a broad range of convertible models during the 1950s and 1960s.

During the 1970s, the popularity of convertibles was severely reduced by the increased speeds on roads and new crash safety standards, However, this did not stop manufactures producing new convertibles for global markets including the Triumph Stagg, TR6 and TR7, Lotus Elan and Seven S4, Alfa Romeo Spider, Chevrolet Corvette C3, MGB, Porsche 914, Fiat 124 Spider, Morgan 4/4 and Volkswagen Beetle convertible.

Reinvigorating the segment

In 1989, Mazda launched the Mazda MX-5. Over the years this has become the best-selling convertible with over 1 million units sold and creating something of a gold rush in the development of new convertibles. From humble Ford Escorts to luxurious Rolls Royce Dawns, the majority of manufacturers have marketed a convertible during their history.

The contraction

Today, demand in the new market for convertibles is waning once more. The SMMT’s registration data shows registrations falling consistently. As a percentage of the total market, convertibles stood at 4.4% in 2007 and by 2019 had fallen to just 1.6%. 

Convertible percentage of market yearly graph

The debate today, is whether we have fallen out of love with the convertible with too many products no longer evoking dreams of open top sports cars unabated by traffic congestion and variable speed limits.

During the early 2000s, manufacturers developed folding solid roof structures as the answer to the many negatives of the soft-top design, especially road and wind noise together with safety and security. Unfortunately potential buyers were not impressed in the long run by these new seemingly practical introductions. Although solving some issues, they created particularly impractical vehicles when the roof was down due to the roof occupying the majority of the boot.

The future of convertibles

Convertibles in the UK are becoming niche. Over the last 14 years SMMT data shows the convertible segment is no longer a high volume selling segment. Volumes are falling significantly, from over 104,000 registrations in 2007 to under 36,193 in 2019. The 2020 year to date figure is significantly affected by the Covid-19 Lockdown.

Convertible registrations yearly graph 2006-2020

Residual values

Over the last 7 years, the overall trend for convertible residual values (RV) has been rising. From 2013 to 2020, RVs have risen by 7.2 percentage points for models up to two years old. The up to five years old models are up by 4.6 percentage points and a notable 5.3 percentage points increase for models eight years and older. Clearly as volumes in the used market decline, residual values are becoming stronger. Moreover, the last 12 months shows a greater level of increase than would normally be expected in this short period suggesting, at least in the used market, there is still demand for convertibles. 

Convertible RVs (standard mileage) yearly graph 2006-2020

In the past year, models up to two years old have increased 1.8 percentage points, up to five years old declined 0.1 percentage points whilst models over eight years increased 2.5 percentage points. These are exceptionally strong increases, especially considering when the data was drilled down to see that nearly all the increases have been in the last three months.

Coming out of lockdown, logic might suggest the last thing on people’s minds would be buying a convertible. However, lockdown has created a pent up demand for all things fun and enjoyable, with the need to enjoy the remainder of the summer sun now more desirable than ever. Lockdown has, for some, created a greater feeling of living for today. However a significant improvement in new convertible registrations is not likely in the short term.