Close
The Autovista Group Daily Brief Team discusses the biggest automotive news stories of the last fortnight. In this episode, Tom Geggus talks incentive schemes, Neil King reviews registration figures and returning special guest Christof Engelskirchen wraps up residual values.
You can also listen and subscribe to receive further episodes direct to your mobile device on Apple, Spotify and Google Podcasts.
Daily Brief editor Phil Curry looks at carmakers’ 2020 quarterly and first-half financial performance, exploring how the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has affected the automotive industry. In this second part, Curry explores the impact of COVID-19 on the financial performance of BMW, Daimler and Toyota.
The BMW Group delivered 962,575 BMW, Mini and Rolls-Royce premium-brand vehicles to customers worldwide in the first six months of 2020, down 23% compared to the first half of 2019. Group revenues fell 10.3% to €43.2 billion. Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) for the six-month period amounted to €709 million, down 74.6%.
As BMW expected, the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was felt more sharply in the period from April to June. The carmaker reported a loss of €666 million in Q2, its first quarterly loss since 2009.
‘Our swift responsiveness and consistent management strategy enabled us to limit the impact of the corona pandemic on the BMW Group during the first half of the year,’ said Oliver Zipse, BMW chairman. ‘We are now looking ahead to the second six-month period with cautious optimism and continue to target an EBIT margin between 0% and 3% for the automotive segment in 2020. We are monitoring the situation very closely and managing production capacities in line with market developments and regional fluctuations in customer demand.’
Daimler – a challenging quarter
Daimler has issued a number of profit warnings in recent years, as it has struggled with EV development budgets, falling sales and the implementation of the Worldwide Harmonised Light-vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP). The COVID-19 pandemic has therefore added another layer to an already complicated situation.
The German carmaker reported that revenue slipped ‘significantly’ by 29% to €30.2 billion in Q2 2020. It reported a loss before interest and tax of -€1.7 billion, with a net loss of €1.9 billion.
‘Due to the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic, we had to endure a challenging quarter,’ said Ola Källenius, chairman of Daimler. ‘But our net industrial liquidity is a testament to effective cost control and cash management, which we must continue to enforce. We are now seeing the first signs of a sales recovery – especially at Mercedes-Benz passenger cars, where we are experiencing strong demand for our top end models and our electrified vehicles. Going forward, we are firmly determined to continue to improve the cost base of our company. At the same time, we are committed to our key strategic objectives: to lead in electrification and digitalisation.’
Daimler countered the drop in demand by quickly suspending production in March, April and May, as well as introducing short-time working. To safeguard the company’s financial strength, expenditure and investments were focused on the most critical future projects. The company currently expects to return to profit by the end of the year.
Toyota turns a profit
Unlike Nissan, and other Japanese carmakers, Toyota reported a profit, albeit significantly reduced, in its 2021 financial year Q1 results, covering the period from 1 April to 30 June. The carmaker’s operating profits plunged by 98% compared to the same period last year, coming in at ¥13.9 billion (€110 million).
Net income tumbled 74% to ¥158.8 billion, as total retail vehicle sales, including those from Daihatsu and Hino, fell by 32%.
Toyota attributed its profit to a number of key elements that played out in the three months. First, the effects of foreign exchange rates decreased operating income by ¥75 billion. Secondly, cost-reduction efforts increased operating income by ¥10 billion. Lastly, the effects of marketing activities decreased operating income by ¥810 billion yen, largely due to the fall in sales volume caused by the spread of COVID-19.
The carmaker has not revised its forecasts for the year, which were made in May 2020, as it operates an April to March financial year. Therefore, it was able to take the COVID-19 effect into account when planning its year ahead. The company expects operating income will fall 79% to ¥500 billion in 2020/2021 while net income will slide 64% to ¥730 billion.
‘While we expect an increase in consolidated vehicle sales, we have left those forecasts unchanged given, for example, the possibility that the business environment will change significantly depending on such factors as the future spread of COVID-19 and the state of its containment,’ the company said.
Cautious optimism
Throughout the recent spate of financial results, one thing is clear. No company is currently able to accurately forecast its full-year results. Some have tried, with caveats added in case things change drastically, while others have simply said they are not in a position to produce forecasts in what is a volatile market.
However, there is cautious optimism, and as countries around the world start to get a grip on how to handle the COVID-19 pandemic, it is hoped that the extreme measures taken in March and April will not be repeated. What could cause further issues for the automotive industry is the economic impact, which has pushed some countries into recession and is increasing unemployment. These two factors that do not bode well for the purchase of new vehicles.
Read part one of Curry’s financial results round-up here.
Daily Brief editor Phil Curry looks at carmakers’ 2020 quarterly and first-half financial performance, and how the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has affected the automotive industry. In this first part of two, Curry considers VW Group, Nissan, Renault and Ford.
Europe’s economy is in a state of flux in the wake of COVID-19 lockdowns, with Italy leading the way in extreme measures put in place to prevent the spread of the virus.
Some carmakers have weathered the storm better than others, and many remain optimistic that the impact is merely a ‘blip’ in their financial results, with improvements already developing.
VW – one of the most challenging periods
In its H1 2020 results, Volkswagen Group (VW) reported an operating loss of €803 million (before special items). This expanded to an overall loss in the first half of 2020 to almost €1.5 billion when special items are included. Vehicle sales were down 30% compared to the first half of 2019, while production fell 32.5%. Group sales revenue decreased by 23.2% to €96.1 billion.
Frank Witter, member of the group board of management responsible for finance and IT, said: ‘The first half of 2020 was one of the most challenging in the history of our company due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The health of our employees, customers and business partners is still the top priority. With our 100-points plan to ensure maximum health protection, we have, for example, created the best possible prerequisites for a safe working environment. At the same time, we introduced comprehensive measures aimed at reducing costs and securing liquidity early on, which enabled us to limit the impact of the pandemic on our business to a certain degree.
‘Thanks to the great team effort, we have gradually been able to ramp up operations within the Group and up until now, have steadily managed to navigate through this unprecedented crisis. Due to the positive trend exhibited in our business over the past few weeks and the introduction of numerous attractive models, we look cautiously optimistic to the second half of the year.’
Nissan – major losses
For the April to June period, consolidated net revenue at Nissan was ¥1.1742 trillion. The operating loss was ¥153.9 billion, equivalent to an operating margin of -13.1%. The net loss was ¥285.6 billion.
In its first quarter, Nissan’s global automotive sales fell by almost half amid the pandemic. To limit the spread of COVID-19, the company suspended production at manufacturing sites around the world. Nissan’s plants have since resumed operations but face reduced utilisation of their capacity due to lower demand. The company’s performance continues to be impacted by the challenging business climate, it said in a release.
Nissan raised concerns about its financial performance in April, saying that its full-year consolidated earnings ‘may differ by more than 30% from the previous financial forecast’ that was made in February. It is expecting an operating loss of ¥470 billion (€3.7 billion) for the year to March 2021.
Renault – impacted by Nissan
French carmaker Renault Group announced a €7.4 billion net loss in the first half of 2020, with the carmaker highlighting the negative impact of alliance partner Nissan’s results.
The contribution of associated companies came to -€4.8 billion, compared with -€35 million in the first half of 2019. ‘This decline came mostly from Nissan’s contribution, down €4.796 billion including -€4.3 billion of impairments and restructuring costs,’ the carmaker said.
Global sales dropped by 34.9%. However, the company stated it had a ‘high-level order book’ at 30 June, and sales of its Zoe electric model were up by 50%, highlighting the appeal of the technology. It is also likely that the generous incentive scheme in France helped the carmaker to increase sales in the period from 1 June.
No reliable guidance
However, Renault is unsure of how it will perform in the rest of 2020. ‘Given the uncertainties around the health situation, both in Europe and in emerging markets, Groupe Renault estimates that it is not in a position to give a reliable guidance for the full year,’ it stated.
Luca de Meo, CEO of Renault, declared: ‘Although the situation is unprecedented, it is not final. Together with all of the Group’s management teams and employees, we are fully dedicated to correcting the situation through a strict discipline that will go beyond reducing our fixed costs. Preparing for the future also means building our development strategy, and we are actively working on this. I have every confidence in the Group’s ability to recover.’
Ford quarter supported by Argo AI
Ford benefited from an investment made in its autonomous subsidiary Argo AI by VW Group, as part of a collaboration deal on driverless and electric-vehicle technology. Without the investment, Ford reported a loss for the second quarter of -$1.9 billion. Including the investment, the firm reported a second-quarter profit of $1.1 billion, up by $1 billion on the similar period in 2019.
Its H1 results reflect the wider picture of the coronavirus impact with six-month losses. For the first half of 2020, the company reported a loss of $900 million – a negative impact of $2.2 billion compared with the same period in 2019. Global sales fell 37% compared to the first six months of 2019.
Ford directed much of its capabilities and resolve in the second quarter to understanding and helping to meet the coronavirus-related needs of customers, dealers, suppliers, healthcare professionals and first responders, and patients and communities. Initiatives like enhanced and new online services, and deferred financing payments on new vehicles in the US, benefitted customers and Ford as commerce stalled, then began to recover. However, with the US yet to emerge from its first wave of coronavirus infections, let alone face a second wave, Ford’s global business may yet be facing deeper challenges in the second half of 2020.
In a follow-up article to be published tomorrow (14 August), Daily Brief editor Phil Curry explores the impact of COVID-19 on the financial performance of BMW, Daimler and Toyota.
As coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdowns are left behind, thoughts turn to economic recovery. However, as the latest update to the Autovista Group whitepaper ‘How will COVID-19 shape used car markets’ explains, in the last month, the situation has taken a gloomier turn.
Since the production of the previous report, the view of the crisis and its economic impact has darkened. Forecasts have been declining since the pandemic struck Europe, but they seem to not have fully bottomed out, yet.
In our July update of this whitepaper, 10 out of 18 markets assigned the highest risk to scenario three, ‘medium risk: slow u-shaped recovery.’ In this August update, 12 out of 18 markets have moved into this scenario.
Residual value impact
The whitepaper also highlights the impact on residual values (RVs) depending on the most probable scenario and country-specific circumstances.
The majority of countries assign a higher probability to the medium risk scenario 3, which describes a drop in RVs that is more substantial and drags on longer than scenario 2 countries. Towards the end of 2022, used cars will – on average – still trade around 3% lower than in March 2020. But there are substantial country differences in this scenario cluster.
Looking at the data presented, it becomes apparent that Southern Europe may be impacted worst, and will also suffer the longest. The Nordic region has received the most extensive adjustments in this whitepaper update. In Sweden and Finland, there are no government incentives directly supporting the automotive industry.
Three-speed RVs
Autovista Group has developed a COVID-19 tracker, which follows recent RV developments in 12 European markets. The indexed tracker starts in February, with a value of 100. In the UK and France, the tracker shows that the index of RVs has risen since mid-May and peaked at 103.7 (a 3.7% rise) in the UK and 101.8 (a 1.8% rise) in France in the week to 2 August.
Autovista Group anticipates a slowdown in the RV development in France and our latest residual-value outlook calls for prices of used cars to be 0.3% lower in France at the end of 2020 than when the Covid-19 crisis erupted in Europe, in March. Nevertheless, this is the most resilient expectation for all the European markets, according to the whitepaper.
You can find more information about how different markets are recovering, and the economic scenarios they are facing, in the latest update of the Autovista Group whitepaper – ‘How will COVID-19 shape used car markets’ – which can be viewed here.
New Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Market
With the coronavirus lockdown easing and businesses back to work, it is encouraging to record a 7.1% growth in the new light commercial vehicle market. This follows four months of double-digit decline. Overall, 27,701 new LCVs were registered during the month, with growth in all but the Vans under 2.0-tonnes sector.
Performance year-to-date has declined 38.6%, with 136,577 units registered during the first seven months of 2020. Although July was an improvement on the same month last year, the initial pent up demand is likely only to mask a fragile market. Breaking the month down by sectors reveals that registrations increased 24.9% for Pickups, 12.0% for Vans between 2.0-2.5 tonnes and 5.4% for Vans between 2.5-3.5 tonnes, whilst Vans under 2.0 tonnes declined 22.0%.
Top five LCV registrations
The latest July SMMT new LCV registrations reforecast for 2020 is down 26.3% to 269,000 units for the year. Lockdown has placed all businesses under great financial pressure, with underlying weakness in the market.
Although there is a gradual improvement in demand, the UK is still a long way off normal. The pandemic has affected many businesses and a second wave of localised lockdowns has not helped.
The interconnected nature of the UK economy means that there is likely to be more uncertainty ahead as the UK grapples with a reduced appetite and business nervousness and the possibility of further regional lockdowns. Moving forward, fleet renewals will be critical to a successful restart and the UKs long-term green recovery given the crucial role light commercial vehicles play.
July Used Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Overview
With auction houses now at near full operational capacity, the used LCV market continues to deliver outstanding performance. Supply shortages and increased demand are keeping prices high at present however, there is a growing caution against the risk of weakening retail demand linked to a possible second spike in COVID-19 and further lockdowns.
Glass’s auction data suggests the number of sales in July were up 14.0% versus July 2019, with first-time conversions increasing for the fourth month in a row.
There is a growing appetite from trade buyers to purchase good quality stock. Sales of Euro 6 light commercial vehicles increased to just under 50% of the overall total in July, with the number of different online buyers increasing as well. Supporting this enthusiasm is data confirming average prices across all ages and sectors have risen 39.0% versus July last year.
July in detail
The average age of sold stock in July rose from 64.8 months in June to 69.5 months. This figure was 3.4 months lower than the same point last year.
Average first-time conversion rates stand at an extraordinary 92.3%, up from 86.5% in June and up from 76.7% 12 months ago.
Average mileage for sold vehicles stands at 71,878 miles, an increase of 2,226 miles on June but nearly 8,500 miles less than July 2019.
Glass’s continues to monitor the LCV market closely and has an open dialogue with auction houses and manufacturers, leasing and rental companies, independent traders and dealers as well as the main industry bodies. This information, combined with the wealth of knowledge in our CV team ensures Glass’s valuations remain relevant in the market place.
As the automotive industry starts its recovery following the coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdowns, there is a notion of unexpected recovery visible in some markets. Is this pointing towards a golden age for used-car markets? Christof Engelskirchen, Autovista Group’s chief economist, talks with Anne Lange, head of data science, and Markus Halonen, head of research, statistics & data analysis at Autovista Group, about signs of recovery and the root causes for different market reactions in the used-car market at this time.
Christof: Are we in a phase of the market, where the trends that we see can already be safely interpreted or is it is more affected by external events? I am referring to the massive incentive scheme in France, also for used-car buying, which has pushed RVs up. I am also referring to the weak-British-pound- and supply-shortage-induced lack of new and used cars on the market that meets pent-up demand and lifts prices?
Anne: There are certainly some anomalies affecting current used-car price trends. For example, the French incentive scheme, that subsidises used-car buying and drives RVs up and the UK’s shortage of supply of new and used cars, that also drives RVs up.
There is one emerging trend that may last longer: people may exhibit a financial cautiousness and rather turn to a used-car than a new-car. The lack of available new cars further compounds this. In addition, those that used to rely on public transport may opt for some budget alternatives, thus driving up demand for older used-cars.
Markus: The reason for the decreasing active stock (number of active adverts) is simply that dealers are selling more cars than they are buying in. For example, in Finland and Sweden, the used-car selling volume has been at a high level lately. In June this year, used-car retail sales volumes were higher than in June 2019. High sales but lower than normal inflow of used cars keeps the stock falling. We have some anomalies, like the French used-car incentive scheme, pushing RVs up. Still, even in those countries where schemes are different or non-existent, there are commonalities: used-car sales volume is at a good level, stock is decreasing and prices are increasing. On top of what Anne said, a reason for the currently good demand for used cars is that people are spending less money on vacation and spent less during the lockdown. Patterns of consumption have changed, at least temporarily. Used-car markets are seeing the benefits.
Christof: People ask you many questions around our methodology for publishing used-car price development. How sensitive is our methodology to outliers? How do we control for irregular market conditions? What is the lag in our published values, i.e. how quickly are we capturing trends that may emerge?
Markus: Our methodology is based on market observation data that we source from various portals all across Europe on a daily basis. We control for outliers, data errors and non-actively managed cars. This works reliably.
I am not sure what the background is on the question of controlling irregular market conditions. Irregular market conditions like the COVID-19 pandemic affect used-car prices and that is what we are capturing with our data models. For measurement accuracy, we have implemented rolling values, where past days’ trends are captured as well as the current day’s realities. We put more weight on recent values in the statistical models. There is only a very small lag in how fast we see emerging trends, much smaller than for any economic modelling.
The full interview can be read here. In it, Lange and Halonen discuss the trends emerging for old and young used-cars across Europe, and whether dealer activity has picked up following COVID-19 lockdowns. Their answers are backed up by data showing the emerging patterns of used-car prices and stock levels in the market.
Whilst some manufacturers suggest their vehicles are the backbone of Britain, others mention fitting everything and some always work with you, Light Commercial Vehicles really have delivered during the pandemic. In this month’s edition of The Van’s Headlights, we consider the merits of the Mercedes-Benz Vito 114CDI Long 2.1-litre 136bhp Euro 6 RWD van (2015 – 2019).
The Glass’s Commercial Vehicle Editorial Team continue to scour the market in search of models offering the highest levels of versatility and durability whilst adding their experience to spot the best value for money available.
The Mercedes-Benz Vito
The first generation Mercedes-Benz Vito launched in 1996. Built in Spain, it heralded an initial foray into medium sized vans for the German manufacturer. Available in a single body length, power came from a choice of 140PS petrol or 120PS diesel front wheel drive (FWD) powertrains.
The second generation Vito was available between 2003 and 2014. With three lengths – Compact, Long and Extra-Long – power for the range came from a rear wheel drive (RWD) 2.1-litre engine for the 109CDI 95bhp, 111CDI 109bhp and 115CDI 150bhp models and a 3.0-litre V6 diesel engine for the 120CDI 221bhp model. As well as the panel van, a Dualiner crew van and a Traveliner 9-seater was also available. This range featured improvements to design, safety, performance and comfort and was the first van range to adopt Adaptive ESP® as standard for a smoother ride in all conditions.
The Vito received a facelift in 2010 changing the model naming to 110CDI, 113CDI and 116CDI. Improvements included restyled front and rear lights, front bumpers and grille and also enhancements to the suspension. Internally, there was improved instrumentation, steering wheel, and cabin materials. Improving fuel consumption and emissions, BlueEFFICIENCY diesel engines adapted from the Sprinter range were also introduced at this point. New drivetrain options included 4MATIC four wheel drive and a 5-speed automatic. The Vito E-Cell 36kW all-electric van was also revealed in 2010.
Introduced in 2015, the third generation Vito launched in North America for the first time as the Metris. Offered with new standard features including tyre pressure monitoring, Crosswind Assist, Active Park Assist and a 6-speed manual gearbox. New price listed options included the 7G-Tronic seven-speed automatic gearbox, LED indicators, LED daytime running lights, LED low beam headlamps and main beam cornering lights. At this point the Traveliner was also renamed the Tourer.
The renamed 109CDI and 111CDI manual transmission models were available as FWD only and powered by the 1.6-litre Renault derived diesel engine fitted to Renault’s Trafic range. The 114CDI, 116CDI and 119CDI models were RWD only and powered by Mercedes-Benz own 2.1-litre BLUETEC diesel unit, available with either manual or automatic transmissions. Euro 6 compliant engines were launched in 2016.
Further updates took place in 2019. Dedicated ‘Pure’, ‘Progressive’ and ‘Premium’ trim levels launched across the range, whilst a halo ‘Sport’ model was introduced on the 116CDI and 119CDI only. The production 41kW eVito electric van was also launched.
In early 2020, Mercedes-Benz launched a facelift for Vito, limited visually to a new radiator grille and interior detail changes. Under the bonnet, the 2020 Vito included new fuel efficient WLTP compliant 6-speed 1.7-litre engines for the FWD models. The RWD models are powered by an all-new 9G-Tronic 2.0-litre unit. Beyond this there are additional safety technologies including a digital rear-view mirror, autonomous emergency braking, ‘Distronic’ active cruise control and a new air suspension system.
A practical evolution
Andy Picton, Glass’s Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor recommends the Mercedes-Benz Vito as “a practical van with a varied number of configurations and payloads.”
Andy added, “Over its near 25-year life, the Mercedes-Benz Vito has continued to evolve, always a leader when it comes to safety and technological improvements. The Vito has a wide choice of models and is currently the only manufacturer to sell their medium sized van range in front, rear and all-wheel drive”.
Mercedes-Benz Vito 114CDI Long 2.1-litre 136bhp Euro 6 RWD van (2015 – 2019)
The Mercedes-Benz Vitorange
Standard specification on the Euro 6 Vito included cruise control with Speedtronic variable Speed Limiter, multifunction steering wheel with trip computer, and high-resolution 5.8-inch TFT display Audio 15. This version of the vehicle also has Bluetooth®, USB and aux-in port, iPod® interface, and SD memory card slot.
Safety features included Adaptive ESP®, Adaptive Brake Lights, Attention Assist, Crosswind Assist, driver and passenger airbags, Hill-Start Assist, reflection-style headlights with daytime running lights, Rescue Assist QR codes, and a Tyre Pressure Monitoring System.
The recommended 2018 Vito benefitted from Mercedes-Benz smooth 2.1-litre BlueTEC engine fitted to all rear wheel drive models of this version.
Search