Article Type: Insight

LCV Used Marketplace update – May 2019

NEW MARKET

Demand for new Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs) in May increased 5.4% versus May 2018, with 29,142 new vehicles registered. Demand for lower emission vehicles aided by attractive market incentives continues to drive the demand. May returned increases of 14.0% in the sub 2.0 tonne sector, 10.2% in the 2.0-2.5 tonne sector and 5.3% in the 2.5-3.5 tonne sector. Offsetting some of these increases was a 1.8% decline in the pickup sector.

After five months of 2019, year to date (YTD) registrations of new LCVs stand at 156,489. This is a 7.5% increase on the 145,514 registered over the same period in 2018.

Top five LCV registrations

Top 5 LCV registrations table May 2019

The September introduction of the Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) for LCVs has seen many dealers clearing NEDC compliant stock in preparation. Many fleets and businesses are taking this opportunity to replace older vehicles rather than waiting for WLTP compliant versions later in the year. It is possible, that the introduction of WLTP could lead to supply constraints and longer lead times through quarter four as factories around the world ramp up UK production of WLTP compliant LCVs.

USED MARKET

Overview

The LCV wholesale market proved unpredictable in May as two bank holidays and softer retail activity impacted buyer demand. Well-presented and accurately valued stock in the best condition resulted in professional buyers bidding strongly. With the steady increase in stock availability over the last quarter, similarly specified vehicles not professionally managed into the marketplace, have seen prices come under downward pressure. Realistic reserves have kept buyers engaged however; tired and damaged vans are continuing to prove difficult to shift.

Nonetheless, there is a good stock mix available, with something to suit everyone’s budget. With Euro 5 and older vehicles accounting for over 90% of all stock sold at auction, most buyers remain happy trading in vehicles that are at least three years old.

It was clear, however, that buyers were exercising caution, as the average first-time conversion rate fell to 76%, over 10% lower than May 2018.

Small Vans – 30% of overall sales

In the small van segment, there is still huge demand for the PSA products of Berlingo and Partner. This small van ticks plenty of boxes when it comes to reliability, economy and specification. 3-5 year old Caddys have sold well during the month, as have similar age Combo and Doblo. Older Astravan and Transit Connect are irregular sightings nowadays, but straight examples continue to perform well.

Medium Vans – 36% of overall sales

The best presented higher specification vans continue to perform strongly. The Transit Custom is a regular sight at auction, resulting in downward pressure on all but the nicest examples. Crew vans continue to be top of the popularity stakes, generating good prices for vendors. Increasing volumes of latest shape Dispatch and Proace have allowed their prices to firm. Demand for Euro 6 stock has plateaued of late, with many professional buyers struggling to find customers at this uncertain economic time.

Large Vans – 18% of overall sales

Used buyers in this sector are demanding higher specification models, especially metallic colours. The Ford Transit Trend, Citroen Relay Enterprise, Peugeot Boxer Professional and Renault Master Business + models are most in demand, especially short and medium wheelbase examples. Similarly, buyers pay premiums for curtain sider Transit or Sprinter chassis for the right stock. Tidy, low mileage examples of a drop sider or tipper continue to attract buyer attention and solid prices.

4×4 Pickups – 16% of overall sales

Stock availability is unfavourably high at present with vendors holding too much similar stock. Only the nicest examples, priced to sell, have found success. High specification L200 Barbarian, L200 Warrior and Navara Tekna have sold in decent volumes, whilst the Amarok Highline and Ranger Wildtrak have generally underperformed. Any 4×4 fitted with an automatic gearbox has tended to fare better. Conversion rates improved for older examples of Ranger, Hilux, L200 and Navara.

This article was originally written for the Commercial Fleet blog.

Motorcycle market round up – May 2019

Sales of new motorcycles in April increased by 7%. Whilst positive news, experts at Glass’s continue to advise caution. Paul McDonald, Glass’s Leisure Vehicles Editor said, “Registration growth for the first quarter of 2019 was no doubt great news for the industry. However, whilst sales grew further in April, it is worth noting that registrations in April 2018 were 13.1% behind those in 2017, which were 16% behind 2016.

The dealer view of April was that demand was stronger than last year. A number of manufacturers are offering low rate finance packages, which has helped boost sales. However, the political backdrop continues to cause concern among some dealers who believe sales are suffering due to reduced consumer confidence.

April 2019 Highlights

                ● Five out of the nine categories record growth

                ● Two growth categories feature strong selling models including:

                                ○ BMW R1250 GS Adventure

                                ○ Royal Enfield Interceptor 650

                ● Mopeds enjoyed the most significant growth

                ● Adventure market continues to be buoyant

 Hot YTD in April

                ● Honda PCX125 was top of the table

                ● BMW R1250 GS was runner up

                ● The re-introduced Royal Enfield Interceptor is a strong seller

                ● Kawasaki Z1000 SX continues to be an impressive performer

What can the industry expect moving forward?

The season is now well established and despite the political backdrop, it has performed better than 2018. In contrast to last year, the mild and dry late winter and early spring has no doubt helped boost the industry. As new models arrive in dealerships and with summer fast approaching, the hope is that positivity will continue.

Used Sales

Most recent feedback from dealers suggests demand continues to be stronger than last year, with a number of respondents enjoying a buoyant season. However, a few dealers had a quieter April than hoped, possibly due to Easter. Although the political backdrop continues to be a concern for many, generally dealers are experiencing little negativity and believe consumers are not prepared to wait for a delayed Brexit, before they commit to spend.

                ●Honda VFR800 machines are solid performers

                ●Yamaha MT ranges are a popular choice

                ●Kawasaki ZX-10 has been impressive recently

                ●Quality 125cc machines sell strongly for many

Although a slight majority of dealers held the view that stock availability was broadly in line with last year, a high percentage reported it to be more difficult, potentially hindering sales. As a result, dealers are more proactive, actively searching for stock and not only relying on part exchanges. According to a few respondents, the rise in machines sold to overseas buyers is having a negative impact on availability, too. However, it was not all bad news, particularly for dealers with reliable industry contacts, who have reportedly been able to find quality stock at satisfactory levels.

Opinions on dealers’ own stock levels was that they were broadly in line with last year, so proactivity has helped maintain levels. However, despite the majority of respondents holding the view that their levels were correct for demand, a significant percentage felt they were low.

Late April and early May provided some changeable weather conditions. Despite this, it has been predominantly dry, so riding conditions have remained fine overall. With summer fast approaching and the likelihood of some nice weather, most dealers are hopeful that demand will increase. In June’s edition of Glass’s data, the majority of values have been held, except where trade feedback or evidence from the market place has indicated further adjustment where necessary.

LCV Used Marketplace update – April 2019

NEW MARKET

Demand for new Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV) in April increased 4.7% versus April 2018 with 24,604 new registrations. Demand for lower emissions aided by attractive market incentives appears to be driving the demand as the market returned increases of 8.8% in the under 2.0 tonne sector and 6.9% in the 2.5-3.5 tonne sector. Offsetting some of these increases was a 1.4% decline in pickup registrations during April.

This completed a positive first third of 2019, with year to date (YTD) registrations of new LCVs standing at 127,347, in increase of 8.0% on the same period in 2018. 

Top five LCV registrations

Top 5 LCV registrations table April 2019

The introduction of the Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) for LCVs in September is creating an interesting dynamic in the new market. As manufacturers work towards the September deadline, current Euro 6 deals are multiplying as dealers prepare to clear older stock in preparation for the roll out of the WLTP compliant versions. However, with supply constraints a possibility, buyers choosing to wait for WLTP compliant engines may have to wait longer to secure the newest vehicles.

USED MARKET

Overview

At auction, there is a growing price gap between quality ready to retail vans and tired, damaged vans. Some vendors report conversion rates as low as 50%, meaning the poorest stock is difficult to sell. With growing stock availability, auction companies are planning additional sales across the country to help combat this issue.

Whilst the Ultra-Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) in London raises awareness of Euro 6 product, buyers are still unwilling to pay the premium prices set by vendors. Currently, most buyers remain happy trading in Euro 5 stock.

Small Vans – 31% of overall sales

In the small van segment, 75% of all sales in April were over 4 years old. In this age range, ex-utility examples of Caddy, Combo and Doblo proved good value for money with tidy examples of Kangoo and previous generation Transit Connect also selling well. Later plate Fiesta Sport continues to drive strong performance, whilst prices hold steady for high specification vans with sensible miles. Whereas prices for the Fiesta Van ECOnetic and base specification Berlingo were a little off the pace.

Medium Vans – 36% of overall sales

As with the small van segment, the best presented and higher specification examples achieved the strongest prices, especially the Transit Custom and Transporter. Crew vans are extremely popular and generate good prices for vendors selling versions from Volkswagen, Ford, Renault and Vauxhall whilst panel van stock with air-conditioning continues to attract the most attention especially from convertors. Auction buyers keen for value vans see the Transit 280 SWB as prime stock, along with older examples of Dispatch and Vivaro with sales of stock over 4 years old accounting for over 60% of sales in this segment last month.

Large Vans – 19% of overall sales

Poor condition and high miles tend to blight prices in this segment. In good condition, current generation Transit receives significant attention from auction buyers, with the cleanest examples of FWD 290 L2H2 and both FWD and RWD 350 L3H2 in demand. Even in the large van segment, versions in metallic colours drive higher prices with vans in silver and black sought after.  Prices for short and medium wheelbase vans are also holding steady. Buyer demand continues for dropside and tipper stock of all ages, although buyers of crew cab variants expect the rear bench seats to be in situ if prices are to be maximised. Rarity at van auction continues to drive demand, in the large van segment uncommon examples of curtainsiders or caged tippers attract buyer attention delivering solid prices.

4×4 Pickups – 14% of overall sales

Under 7% of sales in this segment was for less than 2 years old stock.

Stock availability remains high coupled to unrealistic vendor price expectations continue to result in limited sales success. Over-supply of most models is seeing high specification L200 Barbarian, Navara Tekna, Amarok Highline and Ranger Wildtrak underperform unless fitted with automatic gearboxes. Vendors attain improved levels of auction conversion with older examples of Rodeo, Ranger, Hilux and Navara especially those coupled with low miles. Fiat’s Fullback continues to struggle to gain acceptance. In the used market, Fullback values are in excess of £2,500 behind the equivalent L200 derivatives. Well-priced Defenders remain in demand with some vendors seeing the British icon as a licence to print money.

Auction highlights

  • Units sold in April: Circa 9,300 (Down 11.6% on March) (Up 0.6% on April 2018)
  • Average van price: £6,295 (Down 0.4% on March) (Down 1.7% on April 2018)
  • Average mileage: 75,741
  • Average age: 66.1 months
  • First time conversion rate: 73.3%
  • Best-selling model at auction for the month: Citroen Berlingo 625 Enterprise L1

This article was originally written for the Commercial Fleet blog.

May’s Used Van Hero

For those wanting on and off-road appeal and rugged reliability

The Land Rover Defender 90 XS Hard Top is been named as Glass’s Used Commercial Hero for May.

Each month, Glass’s Commercial Vehicle editors hold a meeting to name the current Used Van Hero in the UK market – the model they believe offers versatility, durability and outstanding value for money.

Andy Picton, Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor: “If you need a robust 4×4 that can cope with most terrains then look no further than the sturdy Land Rover Defender. There are still excellent examples going through auction halls across the UK.”

WHEN WAS IT ON SALE

The Defender launched in 1983 and emotionally, production of this motoring icon finally ended at Solihull in 2016. The all-new commercial version is under development, with production pencilled in for late 2020 or early 2021.

WHY

If your requirements include robust off road capability with British pedigree, the Defender is the clear choice. With a huge international following Defender delivers when other vehicles simply stop. There are numerous 90, 110 and 130 wheelbase variants available. Accessories make the Defender desirable, with anything from roof racks to checker plating or snorkel exhausts available through the Land Rover accessory catalogue. It is the vehicle for farmers and field sport aficionados alike. The chassis configuration and simple all-wheel drive system make it ideal for off road use. The body panels cope with rough terrain and are simple to replace. The height of luxury is the XS model. This comes with air-conditioning and electric windows as standard. The cargo area ranges between 1,510 and 2,170-litres, with payloads of up to 1-tonne. On and off road it feels solid and sure-footed.

WHAT’S GOOD

Residual values are strong for the Defender and especially on the 90 model. The dashboard is basic but clear and well laid out. This vehicle exudes character and is straightforward to manoeuvre on the trickiest of surfaces. All round visibility is good from Land Rovers fabled commanding driving position. Land Rover have an excellent dealer network, however labour costs can be high leading to expensive bills. Alternatives are available via specialist repair agents leading to a cost effective way of keeping your Defender in top condition. Service and repair parts are relatively inexpensive.

WHAT’S BAD

Given the gruelling terrain some Defenders operate on, check the underside for any signs of damage. Check for oil leaks and signs of wear or damage to brake hoses or suspension. A slipping clutch caused by a leaking rear main oil seal is a known fault. Beware of any warning lights that will point to diesel particulate filter issues. Taller drivers beware, some Defenders fore and aft seat movement is limited by the bulkhead. The seat position also makes the cabin seem narrow for larger drivers. As with all used vehicles, a full service history is great news.

IDEAL BUY

Land Rover Defender 90 2.2TD XS Hard Top – 2015/15 plate with 40,000 miles on the clock.

Retail £24,725 + VAT and Trade £23,075 + VAT

LCV Used Marketplace update March 2019

New LCV Market Overview – March

In the busiest sales month for LCVs, demand for the new 19 plate generated 66,123 registrations, a 10.6% increase versus 2018.

Driven by new model launches and market incentives, the two largest sector increases were the 2.0-2.5 tonne sector, increasing 17.9%, and the 2.5-3.5 tonne sector increasing 13.0%. A 6.7% rise in pickup registrations saw them exceed 11,000 for the month, whilst the sub 2 tonne small van sector declined 10.6%.

This was a positive first quarter, with year to date registrations (YTD) of new LCVs at 102,743, up 8.9% on the same period in 2018. 

Top Five Registrations

YTD 2019                               March 2019                            March 2018

Ford Transit Custom – 16,611    Ford Transit Custom – 11,573    Ford Transit Custom – 9,397

Ford Transit – 7,253                   Ford Transit – 4,635                   Ford Transit – 5,255

M-B sprinter – 5,602                  VW Transporter – 3,424             VW Transporter – 4,292

VW Transporter – 5,249             M-B Sprinter – 3,228                  Peugeot Partner – 3,019

Ford Ranger – 4,736                  Ford Ranger – 3,184                  Ford Transit Connect – 2,855

Buyers are currently making the most of the fantastic deals on offer. Nevertheless, economic uncertainty continues to stifle any chances of longer-term prosperity. A return to market stability is essential if this level of demand is to continue throughout the year.

Used LCV Auction Market Overview – March

Overview

Record registrations three years ago are driving the current increase in stock availability. Additional auction sales across the country are helping to clear the volume. Tired looking damaged or high mileage stock remains difficult to sell with buyers preferring vehicles in showroom condition. Euro 6 stock values in the London area are strengthening, as more buyers become aware of the Ultra-Low Emission Zone. In other parts of the UK, buyers remain happy trading in Euro 5 stock.

Small Vans – 31% of overall sales

Small volumes of the Ford Fiesta Sport are driving a strong performance, whilst higher specification VW Caddy, Ford Transit Connect, Vauxhall Combo, Citroen Berlingo and Peugeot Partner are holding prices steady. Prices are decreasing for the increasing volumes of base model Ford Transit Connect and Vauxhall Combo. Tidy examples of Vauxhall Corsavan, Renault Kangoo, Fiat Doblo, and previous generation Ford Transit Connect continue to sell.

Medium Vans – 37% of overall sales

The oversupply of Ford Transit Custom continues, with some residual demand for the nicest stock. Previous generation Vivaro, Trafic and Dispatch, Expert, Proace are popular with the higher trims in greatest demand. Lower specification Transporter models need air-conditioning to maintain demand. Current Trafic and Vivaro models continue to be regular sights at auction with higher specification models attracting the greatest attention.

Large Vans – 18% of overall sales

Poor condition and high miles hamper the majority of vehicles in this sector. However, demand remains for clean stock, particularly short and medium wheelbase vans. Specifically, Sprinter and Transit in metallic colours drive higher prices. The current shape Crafter is expensive against the competition and is proving to be a low priority for buyers keen to find value used vans. Previous generation Crafters, if clean, offer the sort after value for money. Buyer demand is rising for 4-5 year old Transit dropside and tipper models, especially those under £10,000. Demand for caged tippers on any chassis is increasing.

4×4 Pickups – 14% of overall sales

Stock level and vendor expectations remain high in this sector causing particular problems for sales of late plate stock, where interest is limited. The Mitsubishi L200 Barbarian and Nissan Navara Tekna in the 2-5 year old bracket sell well when coupled with low miles. Ranger and Hilux with automatic gearboxes are in demand however, older examples of Amarok struggled. Sale of Land Rover product was limited. High trim Defenders with low miles continue to sell well, whilst other models disappointed. Discovery Commercial needs to be in XS specification to sell.

Highlights

  • Units sold in March: Circa 10,000 (Down 0.3% on Feb) (Up 1.1% on March 2018)
  • Average van price: £6,430 (Up 1.5% on Feb) (Up 1.5% on March 2018)
  • Average mileage: 74,761
  • Average age: 65.5 months
  • First time conversion rate: 78.2%
  • Best-selling model at auction for the month: Citroen Berlingo 625 Enterprise L1

The London ULEZ is in operation

On the 8th April 2019, the new Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) came into effect in Central London.  Replacing the T-Charge (officially known as the Emissions Surcharge) and running alongside the Congestion Charge. Today, the ULEZ covers the same area as the Congestion Charge zone, and operates 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. In contrast, the former T-Charge operated only on weekdays between 07:00 and 18:00.

To avoid paying the ULEZ charge, all motorcycles must meet Euro 3 emissions standards for NOx. For motorcycles, the ULEZ is enforced based on the declared emissions of the vehicle rather than the age. Generally, Euro 3 engines are those motorcycles registered with the DVLA after July 2007. For pre Euro 3 motorcycles, including mopeds, riders need to pay £12.50 per day to enter the zone. This will prove costly for riders who commute into the city on a daily basis.

Many dealers are hoping this will encourage riders of older machines to trade them in for newer models. This could potentially lead to an increase in both new and used sales (particularly commuter machines) in the London area. In view of the economic climate, this is positive news for the industry.

What does this mean for machines over 12 years old? Recently, there has been an increase in demand for the budget end of the market. Although older machines are becoming less desirable in affected city centres, there will be little change in demand in other areas of the country.

Currently, the ULEZ only effects Central London. However, from October 2021, the boundary extends out to the North and South Circular roads and once again, all motorcycles within the expanded zone will need to meet the ULEZ emissions standards or pay a daily charge. It is also likely that other UK cities will implement similar emission charge zones in the years ahead, too.

These recent developments are something to keep an eye on in the months ahead to understand whether the ULEZ will have a noticeable effect on the motorcycle industry.

April’s Used Van Hero 2019

For those wanting on and off-road appeal and rugged reliability

The Ford Ranger Wildtrak is been named as Glass’s Used Commercial Hero for April.

Each month, Glass’s Commercial Vehicle editors hold a meeting to name the current Used Van Hero in the UK market – the model they believe offers versatility, durability and outstanding value for money.

Andy Picton, Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor: “Despite increased competition in this sector, the Ranger is the pick-up of choice for many new and used buyers.  Sales of new have grown year on year since 2012, with over 50,000 pick-ups sold in the UK last year. Over 30% of these were Rangers, making it comfortably the best-selling pickup in the UK.

Its combination of specification, payload, off-road and towing capabilities, reliability and dealer network also made it the perfect choice for many used buyers.

WHY

There is a comprehensive model line-up for the Ranger. Models are available with rear-wheel drive 4×2 or all-wheel drive 4×4 transmissions paired to Regular, Super and Double cab formats.  In 2016, a more efficient 160PS engine replaced the 150PS unit, whilst at the same time, a more economical version of the 3.2TDCi 200PS powered the Limited and Wildtrak models.

WHEN WAS IT ON SALE

The Ranger launched in 1998 and shared platforms with the Mazda B-Series until 2006. From then and until 2011, the Mazda was renamed the BT-50 when the partnership finished. The introduction of the Wildtrak to the UK line-up took place in September 2005. The sixth generation Ranger made its debut in 2016, receiving enhancements such as revised headlights and DAB radio. SYNC2 connectivity was standard on the Limited and Wildtrak models. Options included lane-keeping alert for the first time.

A 2019 facelift arrives in the summer and features an all-new set of 2.0-litre EcoBlue diesel engines that will replace the 2.2-litre and 3.2-litre units. A 10-speed automatic will feature for the first time along with a number of specification improvements. The all-new top-of-the-range Raptor model will also be available to the UK market.

WHAT’S GOOD

Although truck-like in appearance, the Ranger offers a comfortable drive with good levels of specification. The latest Ranger is five star Euro NCAP crash rated and is available with driver aids including hill descent control. Plenty of engine torque in low gears allows for easy towing or carrying of heavy loads. Maximum payloads and towing capabilities are in line with the competition. The large Ford Transit Centre dealer network means help is never far away.

WHAT’S BAD

At 231g/km CO2 and combined 31.2mpg, the Wildtrak 3.2TDCi auto is not going to tick many ‘green’ boxes. The six-speed automatic gearbox is a little sluggish whilst the offset pedals of the manual can be uncomfortable. The standard warranty of 3yrs/60,000m is the shortest in this sector.

IDEAL BUY

Ford Ranger Wildtrak 4×4 3.2 TDCI 200PS auto double cab – 2016/66 with 35,000 miles – Retail £16,595 + VAT, Trade £14,725 + VAT

Transmission Van

If alternatives to daily chores exist, most people opt for the easy option. In the modern world with all the latest gadgets from mobile phones, navigation units to tablets, what could be easier than letting the van take the strain of constantly changing gear? Surely, this must be safer when travelling in unfamiliar surroundings allowing drivers to give the road their full attention whilst at the same time being less stressful.

Today most manufacturers of light commercial vehicles (LCVs) include automatic transmission options in their ranges. Historically, the Transit MK-2 of the late 1970s and early 1980s even had an optional automatic transmission. However, over the years, the majority of LCV buyers have not embraced this technology.

Until recently, in the LCV market the take up of automatics was low. Driving with a heavy payload, automatic vans were slow and clunky and the extra cost of ownership did not warrant the purchase. There were also significant reliability issues with units failing regularly. Due to the nature of the vehicle, the van’s main purpose is as a business tool and reliability is paramount. Due to these issues, manual transmissions became the preferred choice of van buyers.

As manufacturing and technology improved, automatics have become efficient, reliable and less expensive. Automatic gearboxes are now feasible alternatives to manual transmissions if buyers can afford the premium versus manual transmissions.

The modern automatic can offer good fuel economy as well as a smooth ride. For fleet managers, having vans with automatic transmissions means anyone with a license can drive them. Therefore, if some drivers only have an automatic license this will not be an issue.     

Although this appears to be a little peculiar, in the LCV market, buyers consider how saleable vans will be in the future, before they buy one today. Large businesses buying numerous vans analyse how much their asset is likely to be worth in future years. This analysis includes whether a van with an automatic transmission is a good investment.

The main question here is whether a van with an automatic transmission will depreciate slower than the manual equivalent. There is a simple answer, the experts at Glass’s regularly see in the used market that vans with automatic transmissions retain a higher resale value due to the reasons noted above and in addition, they continue to be in shorter supply. Put simply, as soon as one appears in the auction halls there is a flurry of bidding activity especially when fitted to high specification vans.

Touring Caravan Market Update Mar 2019

The 2019 season is well underway with key holiday periods approaching fast. Thankfully the UK experienced a mild and dry winter and incredibly, 21c (70f) was recorded in February for the first time ever, which hopefully bodes well for the season ahead. The political backdrop continues to be a hindrance with latest developments set to lead to a delay in Brexit, which will further intensify consumer insecurities.

New Market

This quarter, feedback from dealers suggested order intake for 2019 models was behind expectations. There remains a stock of unsold 2018 units advertised in the market at heavily discounted prices, which is a contributing factor. Some dealers are also already discounting 2019 models.

During recent months, the industry hosted the Manchester caravan and motorcaravan show, which took place between the 17th and 20th January at Event city and then more recently the NEC caravan and motorcaravan show from the 19th to the 24th February. Footfall appeared to be down at both shows. However, according to the NCC (National Caravan Council), attendance figures were 1.4% ahead of last year at the NEC. Feedback from dealers at the shows suggested supressed sales. However, they remain as proactive as ever and determined to make the 2019 season a success.

Moving forward there are various local shows on throughout the country, so there is plenty to keep the industry busy and help maintain sales volumes. With 2019 moving at a rapid pace, it will soon be time to start thinking about the 2020 season and the HERMCA Lawns outdoor show near Hull.

Market Statistics

According to latest figures released by the National Caravan Council (NCC), production of units intended for UK distribution were 11.2% down between January and November 2018. Factory invoiced sales also saw a decline of 9.7% in the same period.

Touring caravan factory invoiced sales and home production graph March 2019

Key Points

  • Demand for two berths was lower than last year
  • Four berth and larger family units including twin axles faired strongest with similar demand
  • Margin retention is weaker compared to the same period in 2018
  • Customer finance penetration is broadly similar, with the majority of take-up being 10 year HP deals, with comparatively little PCP.
  • Transverse island bed layouts, particularly those with centre washrooms remain buoyant

Used Market

Dealer feedback regarding the first quarter of 2019 suggest used sales were broadly in line with last year. The political landscape has less of an impact on used units, being a more affordable option. In particular, used caravans in the £5-10,000 price category are in high demand.

Some respondents hold the view that availability of market stock has been difficult recently with less offers and part exchanges due to stronger private sales. However, there is a high number of fixed side bed units in the market, due to transverse island beds now being the favoured choice.

Key Points

  • Demand for two berths was behind last year
  • Demand for all other berths including twin axles was broadly in line with last year
  • Transverse island beds are a popular choice
  • Side dinettes have enjoyed a resurgence in demand recently

Summary

If the quieter shows in Manchester and at the NEC are a barometer for the season ahead, 2019 is likely to be similar or slightly weaker than 2018. Although, following a few strong years, it is not unusual to experience a lull; the political backdrop has likely intensified this.

Although the used market is likely to fair better, it is unlikely to be a particularly strong year, while unsold 2018 models remain in the market, making for tempting purchases. However, once these clear, some growth is possible.

April Edition

For this edition, taking into account the time of year, values remain unchanged across the board, except where trade feedback or evidence from the market place has indicated further adjustments where necessary.

Holiday Home Market Update Mar 2019

National Caravan Council figures show holiday home production fell 1.1% last year, with 22,367 units produced. Dispatches onto holiday parks in the same period grew by 0.6%, with 20,668 units dispatched.

The market continues to be in the midst of an odd time. There are reasons to cheer and groan, which is ultimately why statistics and feedback confirms that 2018 ended with a sales tally broadly in line with prior year. Achieving the sale is harder though. According to dealers and parks, footfall is lower, with consumers not spending as freely. It is no secret that the UK’s economy is unsettled, mainly due to Brexit. As the mystery of what the withdrawal date will bring intensifies, consumers are understandably refraining from making big-ticket purchases. In theory, the confusion should settle down once we know the impact and cost of leaving the EU.

Price increases have been a hindrance to the new market, pushing many consumers to opt for a more affordable used unit instead. Demand has grown for pre-owned caravans over the past few years and it does not look like it will change anytime soon. For traders, the hike in demand does bring its woes. As always, good quality stock carrying the essential spec is limited. Demand continues to outweigh supply with dealers having to be proactive over the winter period to source stock.

Park owners will be pleased that we did not suffer a winter, similar to last year’s, which reportedly caused a large number of caravan owners to give up their pitch and sell their units. With Easter being later this year, with an increased chance of better weather, this will hopefully also, give the season a welcome boost.

According to dealers and manufacturers that Glass’s editors have spoken to, activity in January was strong. An unexpected boost for the market arrived with February’s Caravan, Camping and Motorhome show at the NEC, Birmingham, which turned out to be a productive week, generating a healthy number of leads. Activity in March has reportedly tailed–off. Feedback suggests that stocks of unsold 2018 season units have led to reduced orders for this season’s stock. At some point this year, leftover unallocated 2019 stock will hit the market, with even greater discounts.

Brexit aside, there is still a strong, underlying demand in the market. The staycation holiday has become more popular in recent years, helped by large regional marketing campaigns run by local councils & tourism boards. The hard work could unravel unless manufacturers take action to make the market more accessible and affordable for the younger generation. Finance plans make owning a unit difficult due to rising cost new prices each year. Campaigns run in the 1980s to attract new business were successful, helped by affordable incentives from manufacturers and parks. Something similar is required to ensure a sustainable future for holiday home ownership.

Glass’s have held values for the April edition as we enter the busiest selling period.

Motorcaravan Market Update

Figures released by the National Caravan Council (NCC) show the volume of motorcaravans registered last year was up 4.5% compared to 2017, at 14,691. Despite this positive result, dealers reported that demand was not in line with optimistic stock ordering for the 2018 season, with lots of units remaining unsold. This will have hampered their ability and desire to order a similar volume for the 2019 season.

Three words best describe the current market– tough, slow & strange. Tough and slow represents the situation for most dealers, as they continue to try to sell unsold 2018 stock, as well as their current 2019 stock. Manufacturers are finding it tough and slow attracting further orders of 2019 stock from dealers, despite huge incentives. Then there is strange. Strange is Brexit. It really has been an odd 34 months since the referendum result and it feels now as if it is badly affecting the market. The new market has been on the slide since the start of the 2018 season.

Manufacturers over-produced in 2018 and dealers over-ordered following on from a few buoyant years. The demand was simply not there and it was a hard grind for dealers to sell out of new stock. Plenty of 2018 stock remained going into the 2019 season and a fair amount remains today, advertised at hugely discounted prices. This in turn hindered the 2019 season from the start. Manufacturers still produced to capacity but dealers ordered as much as 50% less stock, mainly due to forecourts being at capacity. Demand in the market remains low with Brexit anxiety thought to be the main cause.

The October 2018 Motorhome and Caravan show and February 2019’s Caravan, Camping and Motorhome show at the NEC, Birmingham, did not inspire much confidence, with attendances appearing low to the naked eye, despite official attendance figures claiming otherwise. Dealers reported to Glass’s editors that sales were down on previous shows. The normally active Manchester and Glasgow trade shows also did not hit their usual heights. Of course, three of these shows took place with the UK’s withdrawal date from the EU looming over them.

Brexit is causing huge economic uncertainty, resulting in consumers resisting spending on big-ticket items. Feedback from dealers regarding the rest of the 2019 season is understandably negative. The majority are seeing it as a year of consolidation. If they can sell out of their 2019 stock and Brexit is resolved, it will be seen as a success and allow a platform to be built for 2020. Is it that simple though, and are there further hardships to endure in 2020? –

  • Dealers may sell out of their reduced numbers of 2019 stock over the summer, but the unordered stock still with the manufacturers will have to find its way into the market and that will be at even more discounted prices. How long until that domino-effect ends?
  • Brexit may be resolved in that we have a date for leaving but that is not to say the economic uncertainty will not continue. Reportedly, it will take two years to complete the process and actually leave the trade markets. At the time of writing parliament has voted to extend article 50 and are waiting on the EU’s permission.
  • Concern has be raised by Consumers regarding diesel. Many dealers have experienced indecisive customers due to diesel’s negative press.

Used market activity

The used market is not as turbulent as the new market, with increased demand seen in 2018. The increase in demand was down to the used market’s more competitive pricing compared to inflated cost new prices on new models. In addition, the market saw large numbers of customers new to the leisure industry and touring caravan owners opting to upgrade. In the latter half of the year, the increase in demand made acquiring stock even more problematic than usual. Available stock in good condition is a rarity anyway, and further demand meant that an already dry pool was exhausted.

Franchise dealers are more or less relying on part-exchange deals to obtain stock. Whilst used dealers put great amounts of effort, time and cover big mileage to source theirs. Though the used market is undoubtedly more cost effective compared to the new market, advertised prices are strong due to demand. Four to six berth units continue to be the most popular, especially if the number of seatbelts match, as more families enter the market. It will certainly be testing times for the market if good weather arrives over the warmer months as we could see yet increased demand.

The 1867 plate has been included in this edition of the data and values have moved down 2% accordingly. For subscribers of the Glass’s caravan app, please ensure that you regularly update the current editions to receive the latest datasets. Since the July 2017 edition, we have added over 1000 previously unvalued models to our database to help you value the vehicles around you.

Motorcycle Market Update Mar 19

Motorcycle sales increased in January and February by 9% and 13.1% respectively. Whilst great news, the experts at Glass’s Guide advise caution in view of BREXIT and vanishing consumer confidence. Paul McDonald, Glass’s Leisure Editor said, “The motorcycle market looks strong, but the true test will be with the analysis of March’s sales in this key plate-change month.”

The dealer view of February was that demand was in line with last year with discounting creating extra sales. Most dealers remain cautious about the BREXIT ramifications over the next few months.

February 2019 Market Highlights

  • Six out of the nine sales categories record growth
  • Two growth categories feature strong selling models including:
    • Honda CRF1000L Africa Twin
    • BMW R1250 GS
    • Supersports enjoyed the most significant growth
    • Following a decline in December and January, Nakeds experienced strong growth in February
    • Custom bikes recorded the largest decline
    • Mopeds recorded an increase in February, the first for some time

Hot in February

  • Honda PCX125 continues its sales lead
  • Lexmoto re-enter the top ten with their LXR 125
  • Honda NSC 110 WH remains popular
  • Impressive sales from the Piaggio Liberty 125


What can the industry expect moving forward?

The season is now well under way and in view of the mild winter the country experienced; this will have encouraged more to think about riding, which is positive for the industry. There is much to look forward to with exciting new models due. With BREXIT delays likely, unease in the market will increase with a negative impact on consumer spending.

Used Market

This month, most feedback from dealers and respondents to Glass’s quarterly survey, suggests February demand to be in line or stronger than last year. Despite buoyancy in the used market, politics continues to be a hindrance to sales.

  • Adventure bikes performed well, chiefly BMW’s R1200 GS and Honda’s CRF1000L Africa Twin
  • Commuter machines between £1,000 to £1,500 sell strongly
  • Solid sellers include the Kawasaki Z1000SX and Yamaha MT ranges
  • Sales for late registration machines are difficult due to high discounts on new purchases

Most dealers feel stock is broadly in line with last year, with new part exchanges from March 1 helping to re-stock forecourts. Some dealers continue to find it difficult to locate quality stock at the right price, reducing profits.

Compared to last year, March has been a mild month with little wintry weather, although riding conditions have been less than ideal with loads of rain. With the clocks springing forward at the end of March and weather improvements on the horizon, dealers are hoping demand will rally. Overall, caution remains, in view of the political backdrop. To reflect this and the time of year, Glass’s has held the majority of values except where trade feedback and evidence from the market indicates necessary adjustments.

LCV Used Marketplace update February 2019

LCV Used Marketplace
Last month, van sales steadied with 14,384 units registered. One of the UK’s smaller sales months, 249 more vans and pick-ups sold compared with 2018.

Increasing 5.9% year-to-date (YTD), the 2.5t-3.5t Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW) sector now accounts for 65% of all LCV registrations.

In February, offers boosted sales 4.6% for vans under 2.0t GVW whilst sales slowed for vans from 2.0t-2.5t GVW by 4.5%. Pickup demand also slowed 2.4%.

Four of Ford’s LCVs appear in the top ten sellers again this month. The first two months of 2019 show the Ford Transit Custom beating its nearest rival by more than two-to-one. Positive shows from the Transit and Mercedes-Benz Sprinter see them securely take the next two top selling positions.

The increase in van sales at the start of 2019 is good news after a stormy 2018. New laws due this year add to the political and economic doubts for van buyers set to result in more shifts to van buying patterns through the year.

Daily auctions are helping to clear LCV stocks with over 10,000 units sold in the first two months of this year. February was 6.0% down on January and 1.7% down on the same point last year.

Good condition stock is rare and buyers pay premiums for the best examples. With more low value fleet vehicles entering the market, average van prices went down 2.6% last month versus January, whilst remaining £200 more than last year.

The average mileage of stock sold during the month increased to 76,553 miles. This is the third highest in the last 12 months. Average age increased by 2.6 months to 65.7 months, whilst first time conversion rates rose to 77%, up from 73% last month.

Small panel van sales made up 30% of total volume for February. The Citroen Berlingo Enterprise and Peugeot Partner Professional with combined sales of 300 units.

Increased volume of base Ford Transit Connects is driving values down. Whilst lower volumes of Volkswagen’s Caddy, with higher trim levels and DSG, drives strong performance. Pre-2014 stock generally performs well, with the Ford Transit Connect, Renault Kangoo, Fiat Doblo, and Vauxhall Combo all selling.

Over a third of all vans sold at auction (36.5%) are medium vans. Demand for vans in this sector over 6 years old is highest, with first time conversions at 83.7%. However, average sale prices reduced £50 in February driven by oversupply of the Ford Transit Custom.

This month in this sector, buyers preferred the older 2.0-litre engine in the Vauxhall Vivaro, rare Hyundai iLoads and previous generation Dispatch, Expert and Proace. Crew vans remain in demand, with high trim styles the most wanted.

In February, the large panel van sector made up less than 20% of all used vans sold. This highlights the lack of quality stock in this sector. Prices fell £100 on average driven by poor condition and high miles. Low supply of good metallic painted vehicles drives higher prices. Increased supply of dropside, tipper, Luton box and minibuses is pressuring price levels. Again, the less common body styles drive increases in prices especially caged bodies or access platforms.

Sales of 4×4 pickups made up only 14% of overall February volumes. With high stock levels, the Mitsubishi L200, Nissan Navara and Ford Ranger sold in good numbers on mid-year plates, whilst pre-2012 stock sold well when with no VAT on the hammer price. Late plate double cab pickups continue to be a struggle for vendors. The lack of appetite is driven by high reserve prices, often set close to discounted new prices.