Webinar on demand: The year in the rear-view and the road ahead – December 2020

Anthony Machin | 10 Dec 2020

View the on demand video below

Our December webinar, which took place on Thursday 10th December 2020, provides a round-up of the UK car and commercial vehicle markets in 2020 and a look ahead to what is likely to be an equally turbulent 2021. Jayson Whittington, Chief Car Editor and Andy Picton, Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor, joined Anthony, Head of Content for this webinar. Please view the webinar below.

You can also download the webinar slides here.

Trouble viewing the webinar video? Click here

Key takeaways

The year in review

  • How has the pandemic affected the market? What trends have emerged and what do they mean for the future?
  • What changes have there been in consumer buying behaviour?
  • How were car sales, finance, leasing, insurance, and body shops, impacted?

The year ahead

  • What can the industry do to continue the bounce back in 2021?
  • What are the most likely differences between a deal and no-deal Brexit and their effect on the market?
  • Will 2021 start to see a shift in stocking patterns, sales, residual values, and consumer buyer behaviour with the announcement of a ban on petrol and diesel new car sales from 2030?

FAQ’s – Below are some questions we received in the webinar that we didn’t have the opportunity to answer

Q1. In case of no-deal Brexit, what kind of level of demand decline do you project compared to your base case -13% YOY?

Currently, it is difficult to predict where a no-deal scenario will lie in terms of registrations in 2021. However, what we are currently confident of, is that 2021 will see increases in registrations versus 2020.

Q2. Can hybrids (PHEVs or HEV) will still be sold during 2030-2035?

A 2-phased approach to the process was announced Wednesday 18 November 2020 by the UK Government.

  1. Will see the phase-out date for the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans brought forward to 2030.
  2. Will see all new cars and vans be fully zero-emission at the tailpipe from 2035.

Between 2030 and 2035, new cars and vans can be sold if they can drive a significant distance with zero emissions (for example, plug-in hybrids or full hybrids), and this will be defined through consultation.

Q3. Andy; with most pick-ups built outside the EU, will they look better value vs. vans/cars that have tariffs applied? Will demand increase for these as new buys and will that affect used values?

Demand for pick-ups has declined over the last few years. It is unlikely that there will be a significant increase in demand for these vehicles even with the increase in prices for traditional vans due to import duties.

Q4. PV 2021 Outlook. – The outlook provided is much more positive than previous viewpoints (very welcomed!)-   Does Brexit play a big part in this change or do you still feel supply/ demand largely aligned regardless of Brexit outcome.

In terms of our 2021 outlook, we have taken into account the likely effects of BREXIT alongside the likely alignment of demand and supply as we head into 2021.

Q5. Based on what’s been said around home working and possibly people doing fewer car miles in the future, do you think the consumer move towards EV may be expedited?

Battery Electric Vehicles for first-time owners are becoming increasingly attractive for customers. However, their relative price point versus equivalent internal combustion engine vehicles is slowing the penetration in the UK. However, as cost of ownership studies are highlighting long term savings for drivers of BEVs, this penetration will likely continue to increase in pace.

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